From a skeet by Dave Jones
In 2019, solar peaked at ~3%. 6 years later, it's three times as high. If that growth rate continues, by 2031, solar will be providing 30% of world electricity demand.
(Why does it look as though solar peaks in the northern hemisphere summer? Because there is proportionally more land and more solar panels in the northern hemisphere than south of the equator)
I wrote a piece a month ago about CATL's new sodium-ion battery. The video I link to provided more information, suggesting costs are even lower than I said.
The cost at cell level will be $19/kWh vs lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) of $55-$60/kWh. CATL expects $10/kWh in a couple of years. $45/kWh at pack level, less than half the cost of LFP. Production can be carried out on existing assembly lines, so they don't have to rebuild the entire factory. Any factory making LFP could pivot to sodium-ion at minimal cost and time.
They will retain 85% after 3.6 million miles. I said 80% in my earlier piece; so this is even better, meaning that after 50 years, 75% of the battery capacity will remain. Their life will be 3-6 times longer than the best LFP packs. Energy density has dramatically improved. A year ago it was 120-140 Wh/kg, too heavy for EVs. The new energy density is 175 Wh/kg, better than BYD's current blade battery (160 Wh/kg). They can be charged and used from -40 Celsius to +70 C. And they use abundant materials: sodium, aluminium and carbon. They are maintenance free. They can be safely transported at zero charge, unlike lithium batteries. CATL has also developed a pack made up of both sodium-ion and lithium-ion cells, combining the best qualities of both.
Years ago, the rule of thumb was that if battery pack costs fell to $100/kWh, that would make EVs cost the same up-front as ICEVs (petrol vehicles). (EVs are already much cheaper to run) We have shot way past that point. The introduction of sodium-ion batteries means that ICEVs will no longer be cost-effective, and production will cease.
But this will also transform the grid. The cost of storage has more than halved, and will halve again. Solar is already the cheapest electricity for everywhere except high latitudes, and now it can be combined with enough dirt-cheap storage to provide base-load power. That probably means 8 hours of storage, but storage will be so cheap that even 12 hours will be perfectly feasible and economic. High latitudes will still need long-term storage, but when your EV dies, the batteries will still have another 50 years plus of life in them, and then they can be shipped to high latitudes to provide completely free long-term storage.
This spells the end of the fossil fuel economy. Except for air transport and cement making, everything we now do with coal, oil or gas will be doable with cheap electricity from solar plus sodium-ion storage.
Even in the USA, even with 25% tariffs on imported batteries, the plunge in storage costs means that the EV and storage revolutions will continue.
From EMBER.
Global [electricity] demand rose by 369 TWh (+2.6%) in H1-2025, compared with 731 TWh (+5.3%) in the same period last year. The smaller increase was due to a few factors, including a more measured pace of industrial growth in China and India, but also fewer heatwaves in May and June in India.
In China, demand grew by 198 TWh (+4.2%), compared with a much stronger increase of 326 TWh (+7.5%) in the same period last year.
Despite the smaller rise, the global demand increase in H1-2025 was close to the 10-year annual average of 2.7% for 2015-2024.
In India, demand growth was particularly low at 12 TWh (+1.3%), compared with +75 TWh (+9%) last year when heatwaves drove higher demand. Ember estimates that if weather during May and June 2025 had matched last year’s heatwave conditions, demand growth in India would have been closer to +3%.
The world’s four largest polluters accounted for 81% of the global demand rise in the first half of 2025: China 54% (198 TWh), the US 21% (76 TWh), India 3.3% (12 TWh) and the EU 2.4% (9 TWh).
Solar generation grew by 306 TWh (+31%) in the first half of 2025, its fastest absolute growth on record. If this pace continues, solar is on track to remain the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 21st consecutive year and to outpace wind growth in absolute terms for the fourth year in a row.
Solar’s global share was 8.8% in the first half of 2025, more than doubling in the last four years, from 3.8% in 2021. In many countries, solar now makes up a considerably higher share of the electricity mix.Several economies set new records. Among the top 20 largest solar generators in absolute terms, seven countries — Hungary, Greece, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Spain, Australia and Germany — generated 20% or more of their electricity from solar in the first six months of 2025.
Hungary led with nearly 30% share of solar generation, ahead of Greece and the Netherlands, which both surpassed 25%, up from just over 10% only four years ago (in the first half of 2021). Meanwhile, based on Ember’s estimate, Pakistan saw the largest increase in share, from 4.4% in H1-2021 to 21.9% in H1-2025. The increase was driven by the rapid adoption of rooftop solar by households and businesses in response to high electricity prices, as reported previously by Ember.
Based on available monthly data, at least 29 countries generated over 10% of their electricity from solar from January to June 2025, up from 22 countries in the same period of 2024 and only 11 countries in the first half of 2021.
China remained the leader in absolute growth terms for the third consecutive year, accounting for 55% (168 TWh) of the global increase in solar in the first half of 2025. The US accounted for 14% (44 TWh), the EU 12% (37 TWh) and India 6% (17 TWh). In contrast, solar generation fell marginally in Japan by 1.4 TWh (-0.4%), partly due to record-high curtailment. Solar also declined slightly in Vietnam (-0.5 TWh, -1.7%).
Solar capacity additions also grew at a record pace, reaching a new high of 380 GW in the first six months of 2025 – 64% more than the 232 GW added in the same period last year. A record surge in May, driven by accelerated installations in China ahead of new pricing rules on 1 June 2025, was a key contributor. Overall, China accounted for 67% of total solar capacity additions in H1-2025.
Renewables overtook coal in the electricity mix for the first time on record, rising by 363 TWh (+7.7%) to 5,072 TWh in the first half of 2025. Their share increased to 34.3%, up from 32.7% in the same period last year. Coal fell by 31 TWh (-0.6%) to 4,896 TWh, with its share dropping to 33.1%, down from 34.2%.
My view on these figures:
The output of solar is rising by 30% per annum, and because solar panels and battery storage keep on falling in cost, that growth rate will continue, and may even accelerate. This half year, solar output rose 306 TWh over the year, so in H1 2026, it could easily rise by 400 TWh, H1 2027 by 517 TWh, and in H1 2028, by 673 TWh. Assume there is no acceleration in wind output, i.e., the annual increase in output remains at 100 TWh.
World growth is likely to pick up. The switch to EVs is accelerating, and datacentres are gobbling electricity. Demand growth for electricity will be higher over the next year, and higher still in 2027. But, if world electricity demand rises by, say, 500 TWh in the year to H1 2026 (compared with 369 TWh in H1 2025), this will be satisfied by the increase in renewables supply. Similarly, in H1 2027, demand could rise by more, say 550 or 600 TWh, and still be met by the increase in output from renewables. By H1 2028, demand would have to rise by a record 770 TWh for renewables not to match this increase. And thereafter, renewables will eat more and more deeply each year into generation from fossil fuels.
In other words, emissions from electricity generation have probably peaked.
Declines will be small initially, but the stronger rise in electricity demand is (partly) to supply electricity for EVs. The decline in emissions from land transport will be accelerating.
We are at, or are close to, the point where not just emissions from electricity generation, but also total global emissions, are peaking. This is not a cyclical peak, caused by a recession or Covid. It is a secular peak. We have at last started on the long road to zero emissions. Does that mean temperatures have stopped rising? No, unfortunately. For that, we would have to cut emissions by at least 90%. However, we're getting there. Emissions could halve by 2045, and halve again by 2060. Definitely too long and too slow. But we are at last on the right road. Now we must try and bend the curve to get there faster.
Two recent graphs, from different articles, have given me hope that we might yet avoid catastrophic global warming. The first chart come from Carbon Brief, which I referenced here.
It shows the smoothed year-on-year change in electricity demand in China, and the year-on-year change in the supply of electricity, broken down into fossil fuels (mostly coal, but some gas) and clean energy. Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 times when production of electricity from fossil fuels has fallen: in 2009 (the GFC); in 2012/13 (the Euro crisis); in 2016 (a global mid-cycle correction which was quite severe in China); in 2022 (Covid lock-downs); and this year.
This year is the first time that fossil fuel production has fallen when electricity demand growth is strong. Notice how the size of the pale blue bars (renewables) has got bigger and bigger, as China has installed exponetially increasing quantities of wind, solar and batteries. Second, notice how electricity demand has grown, as (a) the economy grew, and (b) EV sales exploded, with each peak tending to be higher than the previous one.
Right now, an annual expansion in clean energy production of +-600 terawatt-hours (TWh) is enough to more than satisfy demand, causing fossil fuel generation to decline. The 20-year average annual increase in demand is 400 TWh, while over the last 8 years or so, it looks about 500 TWh. Obviously, if China's growth accelerates back to the heady rates on the early 2000s (10% a year), given how much richer China is now than then, the increase in demand could easily exceed 800 TWh. However, growth is unlikely to accelerate back to those levels The recent GDP trend growth rate is about 7%, and, in my judgment, slowing, as China deals with its property crisis. (Also, China overstates its GDP growth data, so the real growth rate is lower. The data for growth in electricity demand and supply are better quality.)
The second chart came from an article by the ABC, which I commented on here.
The projected increase in new clean energy generation capacity for the next 2 years is about 600 TWh. In other words, it's now more than the average rise in electricity demand.
Of course, there is an economic cycle, with demand rising at 800 TWh in boom years, and reducing to 200 to 400 TWh in slower years. So we may have a pattern of falling emissions during low-growth years, followed by modest rises when the economy is stronger. Yet this doesn't take into account the exponential growth in new wind and solar output over the last 7 years. It's risen from 200 TWh to 600 TWh in just five years. And although the forecast for the next two years is for only limited growth, the costs of solar and batteries contimue to decline rapidly. The exponential growth will continue. By 2028, new clean energy output will be increasing by 800 TWh a year, or more, so that even in high growth years, Chinese emissions from electricity generation will be falling.
China is by far the world's largest emitter of CO2, causing over 25% of global emissions, compared with the US at 18%, and the EU at 17%. Europe's and the USA's emissions peaked years ago:
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| Source: Our World in Data |
What this means is this: if China's emissions have peaked, global emissions have probably peaked too.
It's true that the Trump administration has embarked on an utterly demented attempt to return the USA to the 1950s, but cheap Chinese solar panels, batteries and EVs, are persuading the rest of the world (for example, Pakistan)---the other 80% of emissions---to switch to clean energy. Plus, Trump's high-handed trashing of tariff and trade agreements means that the USA's opposition to carbon border taxes will not be effective. If the USA can arbitrarily raise tariffs, then so can the rest of the world. And they will. Moreover, renewables are much cheaper than fossil fuels. As electricity prices soar in the USA, cooler heads might prevail.
The peak in global emissions doesn't mean global temperatures will stop rising. Emissions will have to fall by 90% for that to happen. But what these devlopments do mean is that emissions are now in secular decline. And the sustained fall in the costs of clean energy means that the decline will accelerate as renewables and EVs get ever cheaper. As the impacts of catastrophic global heating worsen, the world will take stronger and stronger measures to slash emissions.
Temperatures will go on rising, but for the first time, it looks as if, by the 2040s, the decade-by-decade increases will start falling.
From The Guardian
There is something of a reality check under way on the response to the climate crisis. It’s no secret that countries and corporations are far from living up to the goals set by international leaders at the landmark 2015 Paris agreement.
Unless there is a significant course correction, the ramifications will be far-reaching and often destructive. The second coming of Donald Trump and growing global instability has made a top-down injection of urgency at the pace needed harder to imagine. Optimism is harder to come by.
But that doesn’t mean nothing is happening.
It’s worth pointing this out because a narrative has started to take hold that renewable energy and other clean solutions have made little to no headway in displacing fossil fuels, and therefore are pointless. Fuelled by Tony Blair and the former US government adviser Daniel Yergin, and embraced by the fossil fuel industry and its lapdogs in the commentariat, it is used to attack zero emissions targets as a fool’s dream. In Australia, it is part of the backdrop as the Albanese government is lobbied over whether to set an ambitious emissions reduction target for 2035.
The reality, though, is more complicated. Here are some things worth considering if you hear climate action is pointless.
One line that has gained some traction this year is that the proportion of global energy supply from fossil fuels has barely moved over the past 35 years. The claim – bubbling away in The Australian, on Sky News [right-wing Murdoch media] and on social media – goes that dirty fuels provided 85% of energy in 1990, and still provide 80% today.
So much for progress, right?
But the Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF]founder and self-declared conservative Michael Liebreich points out that this ignores an important factor.
The percentages referred to by fossil fuel advocates are for primary energy – that is, raw coal, crude oil, gas, wood, sun or wind. They do not refer to useful energy – energy that has been converted into a transportable form, such as electricity or refined petroleum, delivered to a consumer and then used to light their house or move their car.
This useful energy is the more relevant measure. And the process of processing raw fossil fuels into useful energy is, in many cases, not particular efficient. More energy is lost in generating at a remote coal-fired power plant and transmitting it to a home than if solar, wind or hydro was used. Petrol cars require much more energy to travel a kilometre than an electric vehicle does.
If we acknowledge this and consider useful energy alone, Liebreich says the amount of energy provided by fossil fuels is not 80%, but about 68%.
This is obviously still too high. But it won’t stay at this level. Despite all the talk of new coal plants still being built, they are playing in the margins. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that solar and wind will meet more than 90% of the global increase in electricity demand this year. Global generation from solar and wind energy is expected to increase by about 25%, from 4,000 terawatt-hours to more than 5,000. Next year it is expected to jump another 20%, past 6,000TWh.
The IEA projects that global renewable energy output – including solar, wind and hydro – will surpass coal output in either 2025 or 2026. For the first time in a century, the share of electricity coming from coal will have fallen to less than 33%.
Solar and wind will together be nearly 20% – up from 4% a decade ago.
A key question is if this growth in renewable energy will eventually reduce global fossil fuel use – as is necessary – or mostly just meet growing energy demand. Liebreich argues compellingly that fossil fuel use is set to fall. Using a simple model, he suggests it is likely to start falling in the 2040s and could be squeezed out of the system by about 2065.
That is not near fast enough to deliver the trajectory scientists say is needed to limit global heating since pre-industrialisation to 1.5C. But it is a well argued rejection of claims that a global transition isn’t possible.
With a population of 1.4 billion and having taken on a huge proportion of the world’s manufacturing, China is easily the world’s biggest direct national climate polluter, pumping out more than twice as much CO2 as the second-placed US.
Its story is mixed, as always. But the data show it is changing. An analysis for Carbon Brief by China experts Qi Qin and Lauri Myllyvirta found that coal’s share of the country’s power generation fell from 73% in 2016 to 51% in June this year. This happened as it continued to build new coal plants for a simple reason – it doesn’t run them at anything like capacity.
A significant moment came earlier this year when China’s national emissions fell for the first time, dropping 1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Beijing needs to do much more if it is to meet its commitment under the Paris deal. Its next five-year plan for economic development, due this year, will be crucial.
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| Source: Carbon Brief Note how renewable electricity generation has, for the first time since the deep 2009 recession, grown by more than the growth in electricity demand, even though demand growth has been strong. |
According to Our World in Data, global sales of internal combustion engine cars – which run solely on petrol or diesel – peaked in 2016 at 80.47m. Electric and plug-in hybrid car sales in that year were just 780,000.
Last year, sales of dirty cars were 62.05m, a 23% fall. Electric and plug-in hybrid car sales had increased to 17.5m.
Put another way, nearly a decade ago only one in every 100 cars sold across the globe was electric. Now it is more than one in five. Elon Musk’s extraordinary self-own in damaging Tesla’s reputation may dent the pace of growth but it won’t stop it. China has little time or need for Teslas and is home to more than 60% of global EV sales.
None of this is to understate the scale of the problem. This column has reported before on the big step-up in global heating since June 2023. Averaged across the globe, every day in 2024 was at least 1.25C hotter than preindustrial levels, and three-quarters were 1.5C hotter.
Extreme weather events are becoming more damaging. Feedback loops (melting permafrost and huge wildfires) are releasing large additional amounts of CO2, accelerating the problem. Governments have barely started to acknowledge the expected increase in economic, societal and environmental costs that will hit productivity – the current focus of the Australian political class – and so much else.
It’s hard to overstate how much there is to be done. But don’t believe self-interested arguments that action is impossible, or will be for nothing.
From Nicholas Fulghum
Wind and solar generated more than a QUARTER of China's electricity for the first month on record In April 2025, 26% of China's electricity generation was produced by wind and solar according to our latest data. Wind: 13.6% Solar 12.4%As the EMBER piece says:
The April record was driven by both wind and solar hitting individual record high shares. Wind power accounted for 13.6% of generation while solar contributed 12.4%. The rise of solar power in particular has been remarkable. The share of solar power has tripled in the last five years, from just 4.1% in April of 2020. In 2024, China installed more new solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, more than tripling its rate of installations in just two years, from around 103 GW (DC) in 2022 to 333 GW in 2024. Installations have continued at pace in 2025, with 72 GW of new solar added in Q1 alone, up 18% from Q1 2024, according to Ember’s monthly wind and solar capacity data.
The rapid build out of solar capacity in China has pushed not only the share, but also absolute solar generation to new heights. In April 2025, China hit a new record of 96 TWh of solar generation, surpassing the previous record of 89 TWh set in August of 2024. This record may soon be surpassed again as summer conditions further boost output.
The growth in renewables is also reshaping the overall generation mix. Fossil fuel generation has already declined by 72 TWh—or 3.6%—year-on-year across the first four months of 2025, a shift that’s beginning to show structural signs.
The rate at which wind and solar are increasing means the rise in output from renewables now exceeds the rise in total demand (current running at +-3% per annum), even with electricity demand increasing because of EVs and PHEVs. Which means, in turn, that China's emissions have peaked.
Caveats: growth may soar this year or next, or, for some inexplicable reason, wind and solar will stop growing. Solar panels continue to decline in cost, and battery costs are falling even faster, meaning solar can be "firmed" easily and cheaply, so solar, at least, is likely to continue growing fast.
Note how wind and solar have different seasonal patterns, which means that, combined, less of both is required. For now, gas will still be required to balance the grid when renewables are low, but the rise in EVs/PHEVs and falling capacity utilisation at coal power stations, means that China has passed peak coal and peak oil. Since China produces +-25% of the world's emissions, that may mean that world emissions have also peaked.
From Kees van der Leun
After decades of solar PV deployment, the world crossed the 1 TW (a million MW) line in 2022. Just two years later, after adding 0.6 TW in 2024, we already crossed the 2 TW mark too!
#SolarPV #solarenergy #renewables
It took 22 years for cumulative solar installed to reach 1 terawatt. It took just 2 years for the next terawatt. And I expect over the next 2 years, another 2 terawatts of solar will be installed. Total cumulated solar is doubling every two years.
Why? First, solar continues to plunge in price. Second, how much solar you could have in your grid was limited because there's no solar at night. But with storage costs plunging, that's less and less of a constraint. Solar farms are already routinely built with 4 hours of co-located storage. In a couple of years, that will be 8 hours.
Note: this is not new solar installed each year, though that is also growing exponentially. It is the cumulative total of all solar panels installed.
Electricity generation is going to transition to zero carbon much faster than even I, an optimist, have been thinking.
From John Hanger
Good morning with good news: US wind & solar surge, generating 83 TWh in March 2025, up ~20% from 69 TWh in March 2024.
W&S were 24.38% of US electricity in March 2025 March W&S generation: 2025 83 TWh 2024 69 TWh 2021 52 TWh 2020 39 TWh 2015 18 TWh 4X since 2015 & 2X since 2020!
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| BYD's plug-in hybrid, The Shark |
From The Driven
In 2024, China registered 31.436 million new automobiles, a rise of 4.5 per cent over the previous year, with the growth of NEVs (new energy vehicles) jumping an astonishing 35.5 per cent.
In the passenger vehicle market, China achieved an annual penetration rate of NEVs of 47.6% throughout 2024, with the percentage of new sales exceeding 50% for five consecutive months in the second half of the year.
That trend has continued into 2025, with China’s February NEV sales reaching 892,000, up 87 per cent from February 2024. BEV and PHEV sales were up 85% and 90% year on year respectively, far outpacing the overall demand growth (including ICE vehicles) of 34 per cent.
As the country’s biggest car maker BYD says, the facts demonstrate the unstoppable trend of electrification and accelerated replacement of ICE vehicles with NEVs.
As the world’s largest NEV producer, BYD is leading the charge both domestically and internationally on transforming the possibilities of electrified mobility and household electrification. Its rival, Tesla, has effectively left the race when it comes to sales growth.
The BYD profit report released overnight reveals that BYD generated RMB 777.1 billion ($US107 billion) in revenues in 2024, up 29.02% yoy, driven by a 40% yoy growth in NEV sales.
This translated to a 34% yoy growth of net profit to RMB 40.3bn ($US5.55bn) over the year for BYD, even as it invested RMB 54.2bn ($US7.48 billion) into R&D in 2024, taking its total investment into R&D to RMB 180bn ($US24.83 billion), most of it into its world-leading technology in batteries, electronics and EVs.
The company has 20,000 R&D engineers, and submits an average of 45 patent applications and 20 patent licenses every day. One of the latest is the ‘Super e-Platform’, enabling 1,000 kW charging power. Stepping into the era of “charging as fast as refuelling” with the ability to charge 400km in just 5 minutes.
The impact of that R&D is there to see. Battery prices have fallen 82% in the last 10 years alone. In the same time, battery densities have risen 5-fold.
In 2024, lithium-ion battery prices fell a further 20% to a record low of US$115/kWh as manufacturing overcapacity continues to surge.
In 2024, 3,100 GWh of fully commissioned battery-cell manufacturing capacity was online, more than 2.5x that of annual demand. This has driven massive demand growth for EVs and stationary energy storage (BESS) systems globally, with China continuing to dominate.
BYD is already showing incredible growth in 2025, with sales up 93% in the first two months of the year to 623,300 vehicles.
While Tesla’s profitability contracted over 2024, and its share price continues to dive as the US regresses on climate, clean energy and trade, BYD’s share price is up more than 51% in 2025 on the Hong Kong Exchange.
China was already the winner. Now it is clear, the runner-up has left the race. Incredible to see the EV revolution and China’s leadership in real time.
I've been saying for nearly a decade that the growth of EVs to market dominance was inevitable. You just had to extend the lines plotted on log scale to see what was likely.
What I got wrong was that I assumed that Tesla would remain the market leader. But Musk became obsessed with right-wing culture wars, and took his eye off the ball. Anybody who has ever managed a business will know that that is fatal. Market leadership has now switched to BYD, and more broadly, China. The US had the lead; and together Musk and the Republicans have thrown it away. Even assuming a changed administration in 2028, the US auto industry's lag behind China will have expanded to 5 years. With the speed with which the market is shifting, that might as well be a lifetime. Things are moving so fast in China that competitors will be unable to respond.
BYD is also driving down battery prices for grid storage. And this will accelerate the replacement of coal and gas by solar with storage. Learning curves with a vengeance, fuelled by billions of dollars of Chinese research. Under these circumstances, no rational investor will put money into coal, oil or gas. They're done. Over. Antediluvian. As outdated as the Lockheed Constellation, or the Vickers Viscount, technological marvels of their time.
So, whatever Trump or the Republicans or Big Oil think or do, electricity generation and road transport will go fully electric. And as battery energy density rises, so will rail transport, shipping, and (eventually) air transport. 50% of global emissions will be eliminated.
[BYD's sales include plug-in hybrids. These will surely be replaced with fully electric vehicles as cost falls and energy density increases. At some point the cost of a second engine will outweigh the cost of bigger batteries, while at the same time, the rapid deployment of fast chargers will remove range anxiety.]
From Our World in Data
In 2004, it took the world a year to add one gigawatt of solar capacity. Now it takes a day. By 2030, it will take 2 hours.
Note log scale. With a log scale, constant rates of change show as a straight line.
I've talked about the S-curve before. At first, the new technology has a tiny market share. But let's say it grows by 15% a year. The market share will rise four-fold in 10 years, and 66-fold in 30. At a 20% growth rate, market share will rise 6-fold in 10 years, 237-fold in 30 years. Naturally, as market share gets closer to 100%, growth rates slow. Hence the S-curve.
From The Electric Viking:
From EMBER
So, even if fossil fuel generation didn't peak in 2023, it will peak in 2024 or 2025. Since EVs and PHEVs continue to rise as a percentage of new car sales, and therefore of the existing fleet, and since electricity generation and transport together contribute to ~50% of emissions, total global emissions have prolly peaked or will soon. That's good news. What's not good news is that they won't be falling anywhere near fast enough. But at least they will be falling.
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| The carbon-capturing powder, pictured on Berkeley's campus. Photograph: Zihui Zhou/University of California, Berkeley |
An innocuous yellow powder, created in a lab, could be a new way to combat the climate crisis by absorbing carbon from the air.
Just half a pound of the stuff may remove as much carbon dioxide as a tree can, according to early tests. [Over the tree's life? Over a week?]Once the carbon is absorbed by the powder, it can be released into safe storage or be used in industrial processes, like carbonizing drinks. [Aerating drinks doesn't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere, since the gas is released when the bottle or can is opened.]
“This really addresses a major problem in the tech field, and it gives an opportunity now for us to scale it up and start using it,” says Omar Yaghi, a chemist at the University of California, Berkeley. It’s not the first material to absorb carbon, but “it’s a quantum leap ahead [of other compounds] in terms of the durability of the material”.
The powder is known as a covalent organic framework, with strong chemical bonds that pull gases out of the air. The material is both durable and porous, and can be used hundreds of times, making it superior to other materials used for carbon capture.
Yaghi has been working on similar materials for decades. It’s part of a broader push to collect tiny amounts of carbon from the air – either from power plants or from air around cities. Yaghi’s research with Zihui Zhou, a graduate student in his lab, and others was published in the journal Nature last month.
In the lab, Yaghi’s team tested the new powder and found that it could successfully absorb and release carbon more than 100 times. It fills up with carbon in about two hours, and then must be heated to release the gas before starting the process over again. It only requires a temperature of about 120F to release the carbon; that makes it an improvement over other methods, which require a much higher temperature.
That feature means places that already produce extra heat – such as factories or power plants – could use it to release the gas and start the cycle again. The material could be incorporated into existing carbon capture systems or future technology.
Yaghi says he could imagine a future in which people build large plants using the material in every city of 1 million people or more around the world. He has plans to scale the use of this type of carbon capture with his Irvine, California-based company, Atoco, and believes the powder can be manufactured in multi-ton quantities in less than a year.
Shengqian Ma, a chemist at the University of North Texas who was not involved in the new work, says this technology could be gamechanging. “One longstanding challenge for direct air capture lies in the high regeneration temperatures,” he says, adding that the new material can substantially reduce the energy needed to use direct air capture, making it “very novel” and “very promising”.
“We need to reduce our greenhouse emissions, and we need to do it fast,” says Farzan Kazemifar, an associate professor in the department of mechanical engineering at San Jose State University who was not involved in the new study. “In the short term, replacing large emitters of carbon dioxide – like coal power plants – with renewable electricity offers the fastest reduction in emissions. However, in the long term, in case the emissions don’t go down at the desired pace, or if global warming effects intensify, we may need to rely on technologies that can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and direct air capture is one of those technologies.”
Still, removing carbon from the air remains difficult, and as with all early-stage lab-scale studies, the challenge is scaling up the system for pilot studies. The concentration of carbon dioxide, though it is increasing, now stands at about 400 parts per million, or 0.04%. That means that any technology to capture the gas from the air requires moving huge volumes of air – and that requires large electricity consumption for running fans, says Kazemifar. “I believe the high energy intensity of the process is the main challenge with all [direct air capture] technologies.”
Renewables generated a record 30% of global electricity in 2023, driven by growth in solar and wind. With record construction of solar and wind in 2023, a new era of falling fossil generation is imminent. 2023 was likely the pivot point, marking peak emissions in the power sector.
The renewables revolution – led by solar and wind – is breaking records and driving ever-cleaner electricity production. The world is now at a turning point where solar and wind not only slow emissions growth, but actually start to push fossil generation into decline.
Indeed, the expansion of clean capacity would have been enough to deliver a fall in global power sector emissions in 2023. However, drought caused a five-year low in hydropower, which created a shortfall that was met in large part by coal. Nonetheless, the latest forecasts give confidence that 2024 will begin a new era of falling fossil generation, marking 2023 as the likely peak of power sector emissions.01 Renewables provided 30% of global electricity for the first time
In 2023, growth in solar and wind pushed the world past 30% renewable electricity for the first time. Renewables have expanded from 19% of global electricity in 2000, driven by an increase in solar and wind from 0.2% in 2000 to a record 13.4% in 2023. China was the main contributor in 2023, accounting for 51% of the additional global solar generation and 60% of new global wind generation. Combined with nuclear, the world generated almost 40% of its electricity from low-carbon sources in 2023. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation reached a new record low, 12% lower than its peak in 2007.02 Solar was the main supplier of electricity growth in 2023
Solar is leading the energy revolution. It was the fastest-growing source of electricity generation for the 19th year in a row, and surpassed wind to become the largest source of new electricity for the second year running. Indeed, solar added more than twice as much new electricity as coal in 2023. The record surge in installations at the very end of 2023 means that 2024 is set for an even larger increase in solar generation.03 Hydropower fell to a five-year low, preventing a fall in emissions in 2023
Drought conditions resulted in a record fall in hydropower generation, which dropped to a five-year low. Under normal conditions, the clean capacity added during 2023 would have been enough to enable a 1.1% fall in fossil generation. However, the shortfall in hydropower was met by an increase in coal generation, which led to a 1% increase in global power sector emissions. 95% of the coal generation rise in 2023 occurred in four countries that were severely affected by droughts: China, India, Viet Nam and Mexico.04 Demand growth slowed in 2023, but in future it will only go up
Global electricity demand rose to a record high in 2023, with an increase of 627 TWh which is equivalent to adding the entire demand of Canada (+607 TWh). Nevertheless, the 2023 increase of 2.2% was below the average for recent years, due to a pronounced decrease in demand in OECD countries, notably the US (-1.4%) and the EU (-3.4%). In contrast, the rapid demand growth in China (+6.9%) was equivalent to the total global growth in demand in 2023. More than half of the electricity demand rise in 2023 was from five technologies: electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, electrolysers, air conditioning and data centres. The spread of these technologies will accelerate the growth in electricity demand, but overall energy demand will decline as electrification is much more efficient than fossil fuels.05 A new era of declining power sector emissions is about to begin
Ember forecasts fossil generation to fall slightly in 2024, leading to larger falls in subsequent years. Demand growth in 2024 is expected to be higher than in 2023 (+968 TWh) but clean generation growth is forecast to be even greater (+1300 TWh), leading to a 2% fall in global fossil generation (-333 TWh). Already the rollout of clean generation, led by solar and wind, has helped to slow the growth in fossil fuels by almost two-thirds in the last ten years. As a result, half the world’s economies are already at least five years past a peak in electricity generation from fossil fuels. OECD countries are at the forefront of this, with power sector emissions collectively peaking in 2007 and falling 28% since then.
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| Note the exponential growth of solar. Falling battery pack as well as falling solar panel costs means this will continue. |
Global renewable energy capacity grew by the fastest pace recorded in the last 20 years in 2023, which could put the world within reach of meeting a key climate target by the end of the decade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The world’s renewable energy grew by 50% last year to 510 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, the 22nd year in a row that renewable capacity additions set a new record, according to figures from the IEA.
The “spectacular” growth offers a “real chance” of global governments meeting a pledge agreed at the Cop28 climate talks in November to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 to significantly reduce consumption of fossil fuels, the IEA added.
The IEA’s latest report found that solar power accounted for three-quarters of the new renewable energy capacity installed worldwide last year. Most of the world’s new solar power was built in China, which installed more solar power last year than the entire world commissioned the year before, despite cutting subsidies in 2020 and 2021.
Record rates of growth across Europe, the US and Brazil have put renewables on track to overtake coal as the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, the IEA said. By 2028, it forecasts renewable energy sources will account for more than 42% of global electricity generation.
China’s carbon emissions could peak this year before falling into a structural decline for the first time from next year after a record surge in clean energy investments, according to research.
Emissions from the world’s most polluting country have rebounded this year after the Chinese government dropped its Covid restrictions in January, according to analysis undertaken for Carbon Brief.
However, this rebound in fossil fuel demand emerged alongside a historic expansion of the country’s low-carbon energy sources, which was far in excess of policymakers’ targets and expectations.
Beijing’s solar and wind installation targets for the year were met by September, according to the report, and the market share of electric vehicles is already well ahead of the government’s 20% target for 2025. [Update in January 2025: EVs and PHEVs now make up >50% of total car sales in China]
“These record additions are all but guaranteed to push fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024,” Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the author of the report.
The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020.
The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report.
Myllyvirta said the boom in clean energy generation could trigger a decline in China’s emissions from next year despite a wave of new coal plants across the country.
“This is because – for the first time – the rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet, but exceed the average annual increase in China’s demand for electricity overall,” he said.
“If this pace is maintained, or accelerated, it would mean that China’s electricity generation from fossil fuels would enter a period of structural decline – which would also be a first. Moreover, this structural decline could come about despite the new wave of coal plant permitting and construction in the country,” Myllyvirta added.
China had 136GW of coal power capacity already under construction at the end of June, with a further 99GW with planning permits. Another 25GW has been permitted since then, according to the research, which would breach a policy pledge made by the country’s president, Xi Jinping, to “strictly control new coal-fired power generation projects”.
China has forecast that its coal power capacity will peak at 1,370GW in 2030, which would require either an immediate end to new coal power permits, or an accelerated shutdown of existing and planned coal plants, said Myllyvirta.
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| Source: Our World in Data |
The world’s wind and solar projects combined to meet more than a tenth of global electricity demand for the first time in 2021, according to research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). At the same time overall electricity demand, production from coal-fired power plants, and emissions all surged in 2021 as the global economy regained its footing following the Covid-19 pandemic.
With nearly 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity produced, wind and solar accounted for a combined 10.5% of global 2021 generation, BNEF found in its annual Power Transition Trends report. Wind’s contribution to the global total rose to 6.8% while solar climbed to 3.7%. A decade ago, these two technologies combined accounted for well under 1% of total electricity production. In all, 39% of all power produced globally in 2021 was carbon free. Hydro and nuclear projects met just over one quarter of the world’s electricity needs.
Every year since 2017, wind and solar have accounted for the majority of new power-generating capacity added to global grids. In 2021, they hit a record three-quarters of the 364 gigawatts of new capacity built. Including hydro, nuclear and others, zero-carbon power accounted for 85% of all new capacity added.
“Renewables are now the default choice for most countries looking to add or even replace power-generating capacity,” said Luiza Demôro, head of energy transitions at BloombergNEF. “This is no longer due to mandates or subsidies, but simply because these technologies are more often the most cost-competitive.”
Solar continued to expand at a particularly fierce pace in 2021, both in terms of new capacity additions and new markets. Solar was half of all global capacity added, at 182 gigawatts. Its contribution to global grids topped 1,000 terawatt-hours for the first time. Solar has also become essentially ubiquitous. In nearly half of all countries tracked by BNEF where some capacity was added, solar was the top choice in terms of volume. At least 112 countries now have at least one megawatt of solar capacity installed.
