CATL reveals sodium-ion battery with 3.6 million mile lifespan

•  CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion costs are around $19/kWh at the cell level. LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells are currently $55-$60/kWh (when bought at massive scale), so roughly 65% cheaper at the moment.  CATL thinks these sodium-ion cells could fall further in cost, possibly down to $10/kWh in 2 or 3 years.
• They are roughly half the cost of the LFP packs at pack level
• The Naxtra battery is capable of around 3.6 million miles (6 million kilometres) of driving before the capacity drops to 85%, 3 to 6 times as long as what we get from the very best LFP batteries today.
• Energy density.  Sodium-ion historically has struggled here. A couple of years ago, sodium-ion packs had an energy density of 120-140 Wh/kg.  The Naxtra pack now has an energy density of 175 Wh/kg, which means the Naxtra has now overtaken BYD's current Blade battery's energy density of 160 to 165.
• It performs much better in winter and summer, in a range between -40C to +70C, and can be charged at full speed even at -20C.
• Doesn't catch alight if pierced or in an accident.
• The Naxtra materials are abundant, cheap and not strategic: sodium (salt), aluminium, carbon.
• Sodium cells can be built on current LFP assembly lines.

As I pointed out in previous pieces on CATL's sodium-ion battery, the combination of low price and very long life make battery storage very, very cheap.  

Solar, with an LCOE* at $42.60 /MWh (Our World in Data figures) is already the second-cheapest source of electricity globally, and the cheapest in the sunbelt, and sodium-ion batteries will allow 12 hours of storage at under $1/MWh.  That doesn't include the cost of charging the batteries, but right now, wherever solar is plentiful, midday output of solar is often curtailed or sold at zero cost, because of excess supply.   The cost of solar quoted above includes income losses from curtailment/zero wholesale prices, so solar will get cheaper as 12 hour storage becomes the norm, and curtailment is no longer necessary. 

What does nuclear cost, i.e., what is nuclear's LCOE?  $155/MWh, according to Our World in Data.  That's the average global price; it's much more expensive in Europe and the USA.  And coal?  Again, the average global LCOE according to OWID,  is $110/MWh.  So, you can have solar, for $40/MWh, which is falling by 10%-plus every year, or coal, which is three times as expensive and not getting any cheaper, or nuclear which is four times as expensive, and getting more expensive (except SMRs**.  Maybe.)  

Wind will also have a rôle in our future grids, because it is seasonally complementary to solar, and is 20% cheaper than solar in high latitudes.  

Sorry, guys, fossil fuels don't stand a chance, except perhaps, in high latitudes.   And even there, HVDC*** power lines can import electricity from solar farms in low latitudes, more cheaply than nuclear or coal.

*Levelised cost of electricity.

**Small modular reactors

***High voltage direct current

Sodium-ion even cheaper than I thought

I wrote a piece a month ago about CATL's new sodium-ion battery.  The video I link to provided more information, suggesting costs are even lower than I said.

The cost at cell level will be $19/kWh vs lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) of $55-$60/kWh.  CATL expects $10/kWh in a couple of years.  $45/kWh at pack level, less than half the cost of LFP.   Production can be carried out on existing assembly lines, so they don't have to rebuild the entire factory.  Any factory making LFP could pivot to sodium-ion at minimal cost and time.   

They will retain 85% after 3.6 million miles.  I said 80% in my earlier piece; so this is even better, meaning that after 50 years, 75% of the battery capacity will remain.  Their life will be 3-6 times longer than the best LFP packs.  Energy density has dramatically improved.  A year ago it was 120-140 Wh/kg, too heavy for EVs. The new energy density is 175 Wh/kg, better than BYD's current blade battery (160 Wh/kg).  They can be charged and used from -40 Celsius to +70 C.  And they use abundant materials: sodium, aluminium and carbon.  They are maintenance free.  They can be safely transported at zero charge, unlike lithium batteries.  CATL has also developed a pack made up of both sodium-ion and lithium-ion cells, combining the best qualities of both. 

Years ago, the rule of thumb was that if battery pack costs fell to $100/kWh, that would make EVs cost the same up-front as ICEVs (petrol vehicles).   (EVs are already much cheaper to run)  We have shot way past that point.  The introduction of sodium-ion batteries means that ICEVs will no longer be cost-effective, and production will cease.  

But this will also transform the grid.  The cost of storage has more than halved, and will halve again.   Solar is already the cheapest electricity for everywhere except high latitudes, and now it can be combined with enough dirt-cheap storage to provide base-load power.   That probably means 8 hours of storage, but storage will be so cheap that even 12 hours will be perfectly feasible and economic.  High latitudes will still need long-term storage, but when your EV dies, the batteries will still have another 50 years plus of life in them, and then they can be shipped to high latitudes to provide completely free long-term storage.

This spells the end of the fossil fuel economy.   Except for air transport and cement making, everything we now do with coal, oil or gas will be doable with cheap electricity from solar plus sodium-ion storage.

Even in the USA, even with 25% tariffs on imported batteries, the plunge in storage costs means that the EV and storage revolutions will continue.

Battery costs to fall 90%

 

CATL (the world's largest battery manufacturer) has put its new sodium-ion battery into production, and will be starting mass production in December.

• They will initially cost half lithium-ion batteries.  Tesla's batteries cost ~$100/kWh.  CATL's goal is a cost of $10/kWh within a few years, as the technology is perfected and mass production increases.    
• They will last 10,000 cycles (compared to Tesla's 1,500), or 3.6 million miles.  That's million.  And even then, they will still have 80% of their original capacity.  Used as grid batteries and fully discharged every day, sodium-ion batteries will last 27 years.  After 60 years, they will still have 60% of their original capacity.
• So they won't just be cheap to buy, but will have very, very low LCOE/LCOS (levelised cost of storage): 90 cents per MWh of output (assuming a life of 30 years).   4 hours of storage will add just $3.50/MWh to solar electricity; 12 hours just $10.  This will completely remove the need for fossil fuel generation, except in high latitudes, and it will make even existing fully-depreciated and paid-off coal power stations wildly uneconomic.
• They will be able to be charged must faster than lithium-ion, capable of adding 520 km of charge in 5 minutes.
• They will operate over a much wider temperature range: from -40C to +70C.
• They are safe.  Unlike lithium-ion batteries, they won't catch fire even if they are pierced,
• Even their energy density is now respectable (sodium-ion batteries have hitherto had low energy densities), at 175 Wh/kg, comparable with the low end of lithium-ion.

The implications are staggering.  Solar costs continue to fall; battery costs will soon make 12 hours of storage economically feasible, and EV batteries will fall from $6,000 per car to $600, making even small EVs easily cheaper than petrol/diesel cars.

The transition from fossil fuel generation and petrol cars will accelerate.  Emissions from electricity generation and land transport make up ~50% of global emissions.   It seems certain that by 2040, these emissions will have mostly ended.  If we replace fossil fuel heating with heat pumps (and electric heating in high latitudes), this could cut emissions by another 10%.  

We still have to cut emissions from cement, iron and steel, air travel, sea transport and agriculture (a biggie), but we will have travelled a long way down the road to net-zero.

[Update 15/10/2025:  The costs are even lower than I thought.  Here's my updated analysis]

Is there any hope at all?

There are some extraordinary things happening in the renewables space.

1. Solar power is up a lot (it varies by country) almost everywhere.  The cost of solar continues to decline, and because the cost of storage is plunging, "firming" solar electricity is becoming easier and cheaper.

2. CATL has introduced improved sodium-ion batteries. Sodium is roughly 1/5th as costly as lithium, so sodium-ion batteries will be much cheaper than lithium-ion. They also have a much longer life, theoretically allowing cars to travel 3 million miles before the batteries wear out. These new batteries will have 10,000 cycles, which will mean that even if they are charged and discharged 100% every day, they will still last 27 years.  Fantastic for stationary (grid) storage.  

3. EVs continue to make up an ever larger proportion of total car sales. In China, 1/3rd of the world's car market, they are +-50%, heading straight towards 100%. EVs (from China) now have the same sticker price as petrol cars. For example, here in Oz, the cheapest BYD Dolphin costs the same as the cheapest petrol Toyota Corolla. As battery prices plunge, EVs are only going to become ever more attractive.


Emissions from land transport and electricity generation are just under 50% of total global emissions. It seems plausible that these will have nearly ended by 2040, putting us halfway down the road to zero emissions. We need to do more (stop eating red meat, replace gas/oil heating with heat pumps/electrical heating, fix cement, steel and air travel, stop land clearing) to bend that curve towards a better outcome, but for the first time in years, I feel optimistic that we at last have a chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change.  

What can you do to help?  You can cut your personal emissions, by as much as 20-30%, by becoming vegetarian, or at least, stopping eating beef and mutton, and not using milk.   If mankind did that, we would cut emissions by +-70%, adding together the decline in emissions from agriculture and transport and electricity generation.  The more we cut emissions, the sooner temperatures will stop rising.

It has been possible to argue that anything we do is pointless, because China's emissions have just kept on rising.  But this year, or next, China's emissions, as the country installs more and more solar, and EV sales continue to explode, will peak and start falling, and that particular excuse for inaction will disappear.

Let's do this.  

Sodium batteries about to crush lithium

CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have 5 advantages over lithium-ion:

1.  Sodium-ion batteries used to have a much lower energy density than lithium-ion: 140 Watt-hours per kilogram vs lithium's +-200 Wh/kg.  CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have an energy density of 175 Wh/kg.  That's a higher energy density than BYD's lithium-ion blade battery, which has an energy density of 160 Wh/kg.  But, here's the point: sodium is about 4.5 times cheaper than lithium, even after lithium's big decline in price over the last two years.
2. Sodium-ion batteries work much better in freezing temperatures, for example, at -20 to -40 degrees C, where lithium-ion batteries lose much of their performance, and even stop working at -40 C and below.
3. They can be very rapidly charged, even at low temperatures.
4. They should last for 10,000 recharge cycles, or about 4.8 million kilometres (3 million miles), vs the very best lithium-ion batteries, with maybe 3.5 million km.
5. Safety: sodium-ion batteries are much less inflammable than lithium-ion, and don't catch alight even if sawed or drilled into.

So, sodium-ion batteries are likely to rapidly replace lithium-ion batteries, with battery costs (my estimate) at least halving, a combined effect of longer life and cheaper materials.   

This has huge implications for EV prices.  Remember, outside the USA, EVs have already reached or are close to price parity.  For example, in Australia, the cheapest BYD Dolphin has price parity with the cheapest all-petrol Toyota Corolla.  CATL's new sodium-ion battery means that EVs will now achieve price parity with even the smallest and cheapest petrol cars, and better than that with all mid-size cars.  Expect EV prices to continue to decline, even as range is increased.

It also has equally big implications for the grid.  Battery storage costs will fall so much that 8 hours of storage will be almost as cheap as 4 hours is today.  And, of course, this is not the end of the decline in battery prices.  The pace of technological and manufacturing advance is breathtaking.  This in turn means that every electricity grid within the sunbelt -- between 40 degrees N and S of the equator -- will find solar irresistibly cheap.  And even grids which are only partially within the sunbelt will be heavily dependent on solar.  Europe, for example, will combine North Sea wind with solar from Spain, Morocco, Italy and Turkey.  This is the end of coal and baseload gas.   High latitude locations will probably continue to need peaking gas, but these new super cheap batteries will outcompete gas peakers everywhere else.

The energy transition will accelerate.  EVs will reach 100% of sales everywhere (except the USA) by 2030 or before.  Oil demand will plunge. Coal power stations will stop being profitable, and will be closed.  Emissions will start to fall.  Air pollution will decline.  Blood-soaked petro-states will lose their influence.

Isn't that excellent?

From The Electric Viking

CATL's second-gen sodium-ion battery

Photo by: InsideEVs

From Inside EVs

China is reaching new heights in diversifying the battery chemistries used in electric vehicles. The country is already leading in subcategories of lithium-based chemistries, like nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), nickel-aluminum-cobalt (NCA) and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP). Earlier this year, state-run utility company China Southern Power Grid even deployed sodium-ion batteries for stationary energy storage. Now CATL, the world's largest battery maker, claims to have unlocked new levels of extreme weather performance with sodium-ion batteries.

The role of sodium ions is similar to lithium ions, where charge-carrying ions travel between the positive and negative electrodes during the charge and discharge cycles. Studies suggest that sodium-ion batteries could eliminate the pesky traits of lithium-ions: There’s less risk of thermal runaway, they can operate at varied temperatures and crucially, the cost of sodium hydroxide, a key raw material, is far lower than lithium-hydroxide. (Although battery companies have reached better economies of scale with lithium-ions.)

Sodium-ion batteries have already entered production in China. Cars that use them include the Yiwei EV produced by Volkswagen-backed JAC and the JMEV EV3. Speaking at the World Young Scientists Summit, CATL chief scientist Wu Kai said that its second-generation sodium-ion cells can discharge normally even at -40 degrees Celsius, as per several local Chinese media reports. That means EVs with such batteries won't lose range under frigid temperatures, which could help address some of the lingering concerns regarding the extreme weather performance of batteries.

They will launch in 2025 in China, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.

Tesla's 4680 NCM cells present in some newer Model Ys have an estimated energy density of up to 296 watt-hours per kilogram, as per some early teardowns. Sodium-ion batteries are less energy dense. While CATL has not disclosed the energy density of the new cells, it reportedly aims to reach a figure of 200 Wh/kg—a tough goal given that even LFP batteries have only recently hit that mark. That would only be appropriate for low-range EVs or entry-level trims. Some reports also claim that sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace 20-30% of LFP batteries in select applications.

A study published in the U.S. government’s National Library of Medicine calls sodium-ion batteries a “rising star.” Battery giants like CATL, BYD, and Sweden’s Northvolt are already investing in and developing these next-generation cells. So either way, one thing is clear: the future of battery chemistry isn’t headed in a single direction but will likely embrace a mix of chemistries tailored to specific use cases.

In principle, sodium-ion batteries should be cheaper than lithium-ion, because sodium is far more common and far cheaper than lithium (salt is sodium chloride, and the sea is full of it).  But production is still limited, so they are not cheaper yet.  As volumes expand, though, they will fall in cost just as fast as lithium-ion batteries have fallen, cutting battery cell costs to below $35/kWh, and battery pack costs to ~$65/kWh.  At that price, the average EV battery pack will cost between $2600 and $4000, making EVs cheaper to buy as well as to run than petrol cars.   For reference, in 2010, lithium-ion batteries cost $1392/kWh.  Expect EVs to rapidly move to 100% of all sales, as costs continue to plunge--except of course in the US, where tariffs will stop this happening.  They already make up more than 50% of sales in China, the world's largest car market.  

Because of lower energy density, initially battery-packs will combine sodium-ion and lithium-ion cells.  But cheaper cars, with shorter ranges, will be the first to get 100% sodium-ion batteries.  

Battery powered flights from Washington DC to LA

From Just Have a Think 

Battery technology is developing at breath-taking speed all over the world, but China still leads the way. Now they've created batteries with such high energy density that they're using them to develop a commercial aircraft with a range of 2,000 miles - enough for most commuter flights in the US or Europe. So, has battery chemistry reached yet another previously impossible milestone?

 

As usual, a thoughtful and well-informed video.  The intense competition in batteries in China is driving innovation and cost cutting.