UK coal use falls to 1957 level

From Carbon Brief

The amount of UK electricity generated from fossil fuels fell 22% year-on-year in 2023 to the lowest level since 1957, Carbon Brief analysis reveals.

The 104 terawatt hours (TWh) generated from fossil fuels in 2023 is the lowest level in 66 years. Back then, Harold Macmillan was the UK prime minister and the Beatles’ John Lennon and Paul McCartney had just met for the first time.

Electricity from fossil fuels has now fallen by two-thirds (199TWh) since peaking in 2008. Within that total, coal has dropped by 115TWh (97%) and gas by 80TWh (45%).

These declines have been caused by the rapid expansion of renewable energy (up six-fold since 2008, some 113TWh) and by lower electricity demand (down 21% since 2008, some 83TWh).

As a result, fossil fuels made up just 33% of UK electricity supplies in 2023 – their lowest ever share – of which gas was 31%, coal just over 1% and oil just below 1%.

Low-carbon sources made up 56% of the total, of which renewables were 43% and nuclear 13%. The remainder is from imports (7%) and other sources (3%), such as waste incineration.

Overall, the electricity generated in the UK in 2023 had the lowest-ever carbon intensity, with an average of 162g of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour (gCO2/kWh).

This remains a long way from the government’s ambition for 95% low-carbon electricity by 2030 – just seven years from now – and a fully decarbonised grid by 2035.

[Read more here]

China's emissions fall for 3rd quarter in a row

 From Carbon Brief

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by an estimated 1.4% in the first three months of 2022, making it the third quarter in a row of falling emissions.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that the three consecutive quarters, when seen together, represent the longest emissions decline in China for at least a decade.

Emissions peaked in summer 2021, as the government tightened policies on real estate to mitigate speculation and financial risk, before starting to fall in the third quarter last year. The fall in late 2021 and early 2022 was driven by the continued real estate slowdown and strong increases in clean energy. Starting from late March – at the very end of the period covered by this analysis – the main driver has become harsh Covid-19 control policies.

Furthermore, the second quarter of 2022 appears highly likely to extend the trend of falling emissions – even as the construction sector slowdown bottoms out – due to the impact of Covid lockdowns becoming much more pronounced.

In April, thermal power generation fell by the most since December 2015, the fall in cement output accelerated and apparent consumption of refined oil fell by almost as much as during the first Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.

China has previously seen only two periods of stable or falling CO2 emissions in the past decade. First, during the construction and industrial slowdown of 2013-16, emissions growth halted for three years, with quarterly growth rates alternating between positive and negative.

Then, in the first quarter of 2020, the initial nationwide Covid-19 lockdowns resulted in a steep – but short-lived – drop in emissions.

After the lockdown ended in April 2020, the government responded to the negative economic shock with policies designed to boost construction, exports and industrial output, resulting in a highly energy- and carbon-intensive recovery seen in the chart below.

Emissions first exceeded their pre-Covid-19 level in the second quarter of 2020, but growth soon cooled. The string of three consecutive quarters of falling emissions – starting in the third quarter of 2021 – is the longest in at least a decade.

Year-on-year change in China’s quarterly CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, %. Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying IPCC default emissions factors and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2019. Monthly values are scaled to annual data on fuel consumption in annual Statistical Communiques and National Bureau of Statistics annual Yearbooks. Chart by Joe Goodman for Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

So far, so good. China has a habit of stimulating growth by turning on the construction tap. So as growth recovers in China, we can expect emissions from cement and steel manufacture to recover back to previous peaks.  But the really interesting factor in the current emissions decline is the behaviour of the electricity sector:

The economic statistics for April report a steep drop in thermal power generation: output from thermal power plants fell 12% year-on-year. This is the largest reduction since December 2015, eclipsing the drop seen during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdown even though electricity demand fell more at that time.

The sharp reduction in thermal power output this April was due to a combination of weak demand – down 4% year-on-year – combined with strong growth of clean energy.

Half of the reduction was due to lower electricity demand, one quarter was due to strong growth in wind and solar output, and one quarter due to good hydropower operating conditions. Power generation from wind and solar increased 15% and 25% year-on-year respectively, while hydropower output jumped 17%.

Wind, solar and nuclear combined will almost certainly overtake hydropower for total generation this year, which is remarkable given the size of China’s hydropower industry.

This development is also positive for the growth of China’s clean energy output overall, as these technologies have very large growth potential, whereas the potential for hydropower expansion has largely been exhausted, as seen in the limited increase projected in long-term energy scenarios for China.

Electricity demand will recover, hydro generation will fluctuate depending on rainfall, but wind and solar will go on growing.  If expansion of wind and solar is replacing an additional 3% a year of demand for electricity, overall trend emissions from electricity will decline.   

If the growth rate in wind and solar is sustained, assuming growth in electricity demand remains at ±3% p.a., this decline in emissions from electricity will start by 2025.  And even if electricity demand starts to accelerate because of China's rapid roll-out of electric cars, the expansion in renewables will indirectly be replacing oil consumption.  

This is very good news.  China is responsible for 25% of global CO2 emissions.  Her emissions need to stabilise and then fall.

84% of CO2 emissions covered by net-zero targets

 From Simon Evans, deputy editor of Carbon Brief

India's net-zero by 2070 pledge means that 84% of global CO2 emissions are now covered by net-zero targets

Net-zero goals cover:

• 84% of global CO2
• 93% of coal use
• 80% of oil
• 65% of population
• 75% of gas

Net-zero, 30 or 40 years away, doesn't mean much without action in the meantime.  If emissions are to be reduced in a straight line from now to 2050, they need to fall by 3.5% of the initial emissions level each year.  Of course, as emissions fall, that absolute decline makes up an ever larger percentage of the level in the previous year.  By 2025, the annual decline needs to be 4% year-on-year, by 2030, 5%.  So any country not cutting its emissions by a minimum of 3.5% a year is not going to achieve net-zero by 2050.  Still, committing to net-zero also implies committing to annual and 5 yearly reviews.   So there will be some pressure to achieve something, each year.  We shall see how much of these commitments is just greenwashing and pie-in-the-sky.

Record low price for UK offshore wind

 Offshore wind is in some ways the most desirable of renewable resources, because the wind blows more consistently and more strongly there than it tends to on the land (there are exceptions―for example in the US 'wind corridor').  Adding offshore wind to a generation mix reduces overall variability.   The first offshore wind farms produced expensive electricity, but the costs are falling fast.

From CarbonBrief [an oldish report, but still relevant]

The UK is to get its first subsidy-free offshore windfarms after the government awarded contracts today for nearly 6 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, at prices below those it expects on the open market.

The prices are so low that the windfarms could generate electricity more cheaply than existing gas-fired power stations as early as 2023, Carbon Brief analysis suggests. Even last year, renewables had not been expected to reach this tipping point until around 2030.

The 12 schemes awarded contracts today include six offshore windfarms, totalling 5.5GW, and 0.3GW of onshore windfarms on remote Scottish islands. Together, they are expected to produce some 29 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity each year, equal to 9% of the UK’s total output in 2018 and sufficient to power a quarter of the country’s 26m homes.

The record-low prices will see projects due to start operating in 2023/24 coming in at £39.65/MWh (in 2012 prices, £44/MWh [US$64] adjusted for inflation) and those for 2024/25 at £41.61/MWh. These are some £8-9/MWh below the government’s “reference price”, the level it expects to see for electricity on the open market in each year.

If the market follows the government’s reference price expectations, then the new renewable schemes will pay more than £600m towards consumer bills by 2027, instead of receiving a subsidy.

Today’s auction is the third to award contracts for difference (CfDs) to support low-carbon electricity supplies. Winning bidders are paid a fixed “strike price” for the electricity they generate over the course of 15 years and can then continue to operate on the open market.

During the contract period, projects are paid the difference between a reference wholesale price of electricity and their strike price. If this strike price is higher than the reference price, projects receive a subsidy to make up the difference, with the cost added to consumer bills. If it is lower, the developer pays back the difference, reducing bills.

In the first auction, in 2014, strike prices for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar surpassed expectations, coming in well below what had been expected. The second auction, in 2017, saw offshore wind strike prices effectively halve, making the technology cheaper than newbuild gas-fired power stations.

In today’s third auction, expectations have been confounded again. The 12 projects won support at prices of around £40/MWh, whereas a Twitter poll of energy analysts had expected £47/MWh.

The new record-low prices mean these new offshore windfarms will also generate electricity more cheaply than existing gas-fired power stations, Carbon Brief analysis suggests. The only costs these gas plants face are for fuel, operations and maintenance, network access and CO2 emissions, since the costs of construction have already been sunk.

This is shown in the chart below, with strike prices awarded to offshore wind (red) seen to have declined dramatically over time, undercutting the estimated price of electricity from existing gas plants (dark blue), which has remained steady and is expected to rise slowly in the future.

Wipe out for fossil fuels

From The Guardian:

Renewable electricity will be the only source resilient to the biggest global energy shock in 70 years triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA said the outbreak of Covid-19 would wipe out demand for fossil fuels by prompting a collapse in energy demand seven times greater than the slump caused by the global financial crisis.  The most severe plunge in energy demand since the second world war would trigger multi-decade lows for the world’s consumption of oil, gas and coal while renewable energy continued to grow.

The steady rise of renewable energy combined with the collapse in demand for fossil fuels means clean electricity will play its largest ever role in the global energy system this year, and help erase a decade’s growth of global carbon emissions.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “The plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard of slump in electricity use.” 

Renewable energy is expected to grow by 5% this year, to make up almost 30% of the world’s shrinking demand for electricity.  Demand for gas is expected to fall by 5%, after a decade of uninterrupted growth. It is the steepest drop since gas became widely used as an energy source in the second half of the previous century.  Coal demand is forecast to fall by 8% compared with 2019, its largest decline since the end of the second world war.

[The IEA] found that global energy demand was likely to plummet by 6% this year, the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India – the world’s third largest energy consumer – or the combined energy demand of France, Germany, Italy and the UK.  The impact of the pandemic on energy use will be more keenly felt in advanced economies where demand is expected to fall by 11% across the EU and 9% across the US.

The collapse of fossil fuel demand could lead global emissions to fall by 8% compared with 2019, a drop six times larger than the record fall after the financial crisis in 2009 to lows not seen in the past decade.

[Read more here]

As usual Carbon Brief has a more detailed but also much longer piece on the subject, which you can read here.  There are two charts I found interesting.

The five largest falls in annual global CO2 emissions ever recorded are shown in blue bars, in millions of tonnes of CO2. The grey bars illustrate how far emissions would fall in 2020 under a 2%, 4% or 6% reduction compared to 2019 levels. The red bars show estimated emissions impacts of the coronavirus crisis in 2020 on the global oil sector, the EU carbon market, China, the US and India, with the latter only accounting for changes in the power sector. Where possible, estimates are shown relative to pre-crisis forecasts. Geographical estimates exclude oil. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of emissions data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) and the Global Carbon Project; analysis of assessments from ICIS and the US Energy Information Administration; analysis of daily data from India’s Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO). Chart by Carbon Brief.

Source: Philipp Litz

Why have renewables held up while fossil fuels have plunged?  Many people focus on the total cost of renewables relative to the total cost of coal.  These days, of course, as I  have repeatedly documented here, new-build renewables are much cheaper than new-build coal, and also the total cost of new-build renewables is now close to or below the operating cost of old coal power stations.  But it is often forgotten that the marginal/operating cost of wind or solar farms is close to zero.  Their "fuel" is free.  And once you've built a wind or solar farm, you may as well use it to produce power if you can, because any revenue is better than none.  Coal simply can't compete.

Will emissions jump in 2021?  Two factors will mitigate against this.  First, in my judgement, the global recovery will be sluggish, especially if governments try to reduce budget deficits and outstanding debt piles by austerity.  Second, the penetration of renewables into electricity generation and EVs into transport mean that more of any rebound in energy demand will be supplied by carbon-free energy.  For example, let's suppose electricity demand completely rebounds in 2021, by the 3% it will fall in 2020.  With renewables now making up 30% of global electricity supply, a 10% rise in renewables output will completely account for the rise in electricity demand.  So I suspect that, overall, the rebound in emissions in 2021 will not compensate for the fall in 2020.

[Update, May 2021; So far what was prognosticated here has proved broadly correct.  However, my guess that the recovery would be sluggish because governments would tighten policy too quickly has proved incorrect, partly because of the election of the Biden administration]

Scores of countries signal stronger climate plans in 2020

Source: Carbon Brief

From the Belfast Telegraph (hat-tip to Carbon Brief):

The UK has welcomed news that more than 100 countries are set to boost their plans for climate action this year.

Data gathered by the United Nations’ climate body shows 114 countries have produced a more ambitious set of plans for cutting emissions or have signalled their intention to do so this year ahead of key climate talks in the UK.

It represents a doubling of countries committed to increasing efforts on cutting emissions to meet their pledges under the international Paris Agreement to curb global warming, since a UN action summit in September.

In addition, 120 nations have told the UN they have signed off on plans to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or are working towards that target.

The figures have been released at the start of a year when countries are expected to boost their “nationally determined contributions” to the Paris Agreement ahead of “COP26” climate talks in November in Glasgow.

The Paris Agreement, which comes into force this year, commits countries to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to curb global warming at “well below” 2C and pursue efforts to prevent temperatures rising more than 1.5C. above pre-industrial levels.

But on current pledges of national action the world is on course for around 3C of warming by 2100.

The UN’s climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published a report in 2018 which warned of the damaging impacts of temperatures rising above 1.5C.

And it warned that the world would need to cut carbon emissions to “net zero” – so no more is being put into the atmosphere than is being removedby measures such as planting trees – by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C.

Claire O’Neill, former clean growth minister who will be president of the COP26 climate talks, said: “I’m pleased to see that 114 countries have now committed to lowering emissions by rethinking their nationally determined contributions in this crucial climate year of 2020.

“This is an increase of more than 60% since September.

“We will now urge countries to develop ambitious plans to deliver these commitments ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow.

“It’s also encouraging to see the number of countries following the UK’s lead, and pledging to develop a net zero plan has doubled from 60 to 121.”

Ms O’Neill added “2020 presents a golden opportunity for countries to show their commitment to achieving net zero by 2050. It’s vital the world comes together if we are to stand a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C”.

The UK has signed up to a legally-binding target to cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, but the Government’s advisory Committee on Climate Change has warned it urgently needs to increase action to meet the target.

Developing countries have led the way with signalling they will submit new climate plans in 2020, along with European countries including the UK, France and Germany and nations such as Argentina and Mexico.

Pressure will be on countries such as India, China and Japan to release new targets for cutting emissions.

We mustn't give up hope, even though emissions are still rising.  We are moving towards a world where carbon emissions are falling.  The pressure on all countries to do something is building.  Remember, though, to achieve zero emissions in 2050, emissions must fall by 3.3% in the first year (100%/30), and each year we postpone this makes it harder to achieve.  Good intentions are not enough.  All the same, the huge achievements in Europe in moving away from coal are a sign of what can be achieved.

100% of global warming is due to humans

From Carbon Brief:

During a recent congressional hearing, Rick Perry, the US energy secretary, remarked that “to stand up and say that 100% of global warming is because of human activity, I think on its face, is just indefensible”.

However, the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report.

Here Carbon Brief examines how each of the major factors affecting the Earth’s climate would influence temperatures in isolation – and how their combined effects almost perfectly predict long-term changes in the global temperature.

Carbon Brief’s analysis finds that:

• Since 1850, almost all the long-term warming can be explained by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities.

• If greenhouse gas emissions alone were warming the planet, we would expect to see about a third more warming than has actually occurred. They are offset by cooling from human-produced atmospheric aerosols.

• Aerosols are projected to decline significantly by 2100, bringing total warming from all factors closer to warming from greenhouse gases alone.

• Natural variability in the Earth’s climate is unlikely to play a major role in long-term warming.

As is usual with Carbon Brief articles, they are well worth reading in full.  You can do that here.

Coal power set for record fall in 2019

From another of CarbonBrief's in-depth analyses. 

Global electricity production from coal is on track to fall by around 3% in 2019, the largest drop on record.

This would amount to a reduction of around 300 terawatt hours (TWh), more than the combined total output from coal in Germany, Spain and the UK last year.

The analysis is based on monthly electricity sector data from around the world for the first seven to 10 months of the year, depending on data availability in each country.

The projected record is due to… 

• Record falls in developed countries, including Germany, the EU overall and South Korea, which are not being matched by increases elsewhere. The largest reduction is taking place in the US, as several large coal-fired power plants close.

• A sharp turnaround in India, where coal power output is on track to fall for the first time in at least three decades.

• A flattening of generation growth in China.

The main counteracting force is from continuing increases in coal generation in south-east Asia, but demand from these countries is still small relative to the global total.

The global decline means an economic hit for coal plants due to reduced average running hours, which are set to reach an all-time low.

The record drop also raises the prospect of slowing global CO2 emissions growth in 2019. Nevertheless, global coal use and emissions remain far higher than the level required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

2009 fall due to GFC (global financial crisis), 2015 to China slowdown.
Source: Carbon Brief

China

In China, electricity demand growth has slowed to 3% this year, down from 6.7% over the past two years. Non-fossil energy sources have met almost all this demand growth.

The country’s demand for coal-fired power depends on the interplay between clean electricity growth and rising demand. The gap between the two, if any, is filled with coal.

This means that when electricity demand is growing strongly, coal dependence comes to the fore. With these conditions, 2017-2018 saw coal-fired power generation grow at an average of 6.6% year on year.

However, 2019 has so far seen strong nuclear, wind and hydro power generation and relatively weak overall electricity demand growth, with coal use in electricity flatlining.

At the same time, Chinese power firms have been continuing to add new coal-fired power plants to the grid at a rate of one large plant every two weeks. This has driven coal-fired power plant utilisation rates – the share of hours in the year when they are running – back down to record lows of 48.6%. This is the fourth year in a row that the Chinese national average has been below 50% – and also below the global average, which stands at 54%.

2019 has also seen the first contracts for wind and solar plants that will generate power at the same price as coal power plants, putting China on a path to renewable energy “grid parity” as those projects come online in 2020.

[I fear that the slowdown in growth in coal power generation in China is mostly due to slow economic growth, and as China recovers, its coal burning will continue.  That is prob'ly why the thermal coal price  is once again rising]

US

The US is on track this year for one of its largest annual declines in coal-fired power generation. Year-to-date August 2019, coal-fired power is down 13.9% compared with the same period in 2018. The month of August 2019 saw coal-fired power generation down 18.2% year-on-year.

Coal unit retirements have continued this year at near record rates. Year-to-date data shows 57 units, with a capacity of 14.0 gigawatts (GW), that are all retiring in 2019 – some 5.8% of the US coal fleet. This compares with 15.5GW (6.0%) of retirements in 2018.

India

Electricity demand growth in India has continued to slow dramatically across the first ten months of 2019. In October, electricity demand actually fell by 13.2% against the same month last year.

Collectively, power from all non-coal sources grew by about 12% in January-September, leading to a downturn in coal-fired generation that is accelerating sharply. Coal-fired generation in October fell by 19% year-on-year to the lowest level since 2014. 

Heavy monsoon rains have affected industrial power demand, but as demand has continued to plummet in November, a broad slowdown in industrial output is becoming increasingly apparent. This suggests that the country’s CO2 emissions growth is slowing further from the already low annual rate of 2%, which we estimated from data for the first half of 2019.

The average thermal power plant utilisation rate in India is below 58%, meaning substantial idle coal capacity.

EU

The European Union has experienced an unprecedented 19% year-on-year decline in coal-fired power generation in the first half of calendar year 2019. This is accelerating in the second half of the year to an estimated 23% fall in 2019. Around half the fall in coal reflects the impact of new wind and solar. The other half is due to a switch from coal to gas.

The coal-gas switch has happened as the carbon price in the EU Emissions Trading System rose above €20 per tonne of CO2 and gas prices fell, pushing gas generation to be cheaper than coal throughout 2019.

Because very few new gas plants are being built in Europe, further coal-gas switching will be constrained in subsequent years. The expansion of wind and solar is increasing, however, and this will be the driving factor displacing not only coal generation, but also output from gas in the future, as long as demand growth remains tepid or negative.

All western European countries have seen big percentage falls of coal use – from 22% year-on-year in Germany to 79% in Ireland – in the first half of 2019.

There were times of zero or near-zero coal generation in many western European countries. For example, coal has been less than 2% of the electricity mix in Ireland, France and the UK, and only 6% in Spain and Italy, across the first half of 2019. The UK had two weeks in May with all its coal plants switched off for the first time since the Industrial Revolution began. 

Germany has seen by far the biggest cut in coal generation in absolute terms, with both hard coal and lignite falling substantially.

[Read the full article here]

It was always likely that a pincer movement would decimate coal.  On the one hand, the public's awareness of the climate emergency (and therefore politicians' willingness to act) was likely to rise inexorably as the world warmed.  Record droughts, floods, heatwaves and bushfires have seared themselves into our memory.  We know that the world is getting too hot, whatever the soothing lies from denialists.  

Simultaneously, the costs of wind, solar and storage are plunging.  10 years ago, in the USA, electricity generated by solar cost 3 times per MWh the cost of electricity generated by (new) coal power stations.  Now it costs 1/3rd.  In Los Angeles, recently, a contract was signed to provide "near firm" electricity from solar at less than the cost of a new gas plant and about the same as the operating cost of coal.  At that point it stops being economically rational to keep coal power stations going.  And with rising awareness of global heating, the political pressure to replace coal with renewables is only going to intensify.  The huge financial risk for any developer of a new coal power station, or a new coal mine, is that they will be stranded assets, unable to pay back the loans they used to get built.

Renewables at grid parity

Source: Deutsche Bank
This chart was prepared in 2015.  Since then, solar prices have fallen 40-50%

From CarbonBrief:

A series of Financial Times features make up a “special report” on energy efficiency. One says that the price of electricity from wind and solar has reached parity with average wholesale prices in California, China and parts of Europe, with renewables expected to become cheaper in Germany, France and the UK “by the end of this year”. It says: “Improvements in the cost-efficiency of green energy supplies is having a profound effect in reshaping the mix of power supplies in many economies.” Other pieces cover the rising efficiency of white goods, “virtual batteries” in supermarkets that can help balance the grid and risks to the competitiveness of gas due to advances in renewable energy. Another FT feature asks if “economics may be the death knell” for the internal combustion engine, even though efficiency improvements for the technology are possible. A final feature in the special report describes the work of “father-and-son scientists” working to develop batteries that are faster to recharge. Meanwhile, in the lead op-ed in today’s Sun, Quentin Willson argues “we are still not ready for mass electrification” of transport due to a lack of charging points. He says plans to ban diesel cars in Bristol are a “wrong turn”.

Well, what can you expect from The Sun?

The truth is that renewables are already cheaper than fossil fuels in lots of places and will be cheaper in many other places soon.  Coal is finished.  Gas is temporarily triumphant, but as the cost declines in renewables continue, it's only a question of time before gas loses out too.  Even though I am a perennial bear, it's prolly wrong to be too pessimistic.   Cost declines in renewables and batteries will drive out fossil fuels, though perhaps not soon enough.  Problems will remain with iron and steel, cement, agriculture, air travel, sea transport and forest clearing.  But none of those is insoluble.  If we wanted to, we could cut emissions by 90% by 2050.