Vehicle emissions from Delhi’s auto rickshaws and other petrol vehicles count for an average of 23% of pollutants in the air. Photograph: DB Pictures/Alamy
The unruly chaos of Delhi’s roads would be unrecognisable without the rickshaws and scooters that zip through India’s capital in their millions, emitting toxic fumes in their wake. But now, ambitious policies aim to give the city’s most recognisable vehicles an environmental makeover.
On Monday, Delhi’s government announced plans to eventually ban petrol scooters, motorbikes and autorickshaws in favour of those running on electricity, in an attempt to bring down dangerously high pollution levels in the city by the end of the decade.
The policies, which will phase out new petrol and gas scooters, trucks and buses in the capital over the next two years, have beIn recent years, transport has been one of the highest contributors to Delhi’s air pollution, which is consistently at levels dangerously high to human health and has become an emergency in the capital, linked totens of thousands of deaths each year.
Scooters and rickshaws – which largely run on petrol and compressed fossil gas – account for more than two-thirds of the tens of millions of vehicles on Delhi’s roads. Under the new policy, India’s capital will now issue new licence plates only to electric small trucks and three-wheelers, known as e-rickshaws, from 2027, and to e-scooters and electric motorbikes from 2028.
The Delhi government said it hoped the move would lead to an electrification of at least 30% of the capital’s vehicle fleet by 2030. “The policy focuses on pure EVs, which offer superior environmental benefits as zero-emission vehicles,” Delhi’s government said in a statement on Monday.
Amit Bhatt, the managing director or the International Council on Clean Transportation, said: “The proposed phaseout of two- and three-wheelers could be a gamechanger in Delhi’s fight against air pollution.”
Emphasising that scooters, rickshaws and trucks accounted for most of the vehicles on Delhi’s roads, Bhatt added that “accelerating their transition to zero-emission vehicles can significantly reduce vehicular emissions, improve public health, and pave the way for a broader transition to zero-emission transport across all vehicle segments”.
The Delhi state government, run by the Bharatiya Janata party, which also governs at national level, had faced significant criticism and numerous protests during the winter after it was accused of doing nothing to tackle the dangerously high pollution levels that lasted for months.
According to the government’s own figures, vehicle emissions count for an average of 23% of pollutants in the air, making it the highest single source of emissions, particularly during the toxic winter months when a thick smog routinely cloaks the city.
E-rickshaws have become an increasingly familiar sight on Delhi’s roads over the past two years, but the lack of charging points has made drivers reluctant to switch over. Under the new policy, the government has pledged to establish more than 30,000 public charging points across the capital.
Vikas Nimesh, an assistant professor at the School of Public Policy at IIT Delhi, also used the phrase “gamechanger”.
He emphasised that the availability of affordable Indian electric vehicles was rapidly expanding, with Delhi already India’s largest market. Nimesh expressed optimism that the new policy would provide impetus for manufacturers to invest in new green technology and “come up with more EV models” to provide greater consumer choice and competition.
News of the policy had yet to reach most of the city’s millions of auto-rickshaw drivers. Sitting in the shade of his rickshaw cab, parked in Delhi’s busy Connaught Place, Rajesh Gopi, 37, said he was sceptical that any real transition could take place in only two years and worried the electric vehicles would not provide the same earnings.
“I have heard that the e-rickshaws need charging a lot and can’t travel as far as we can on gas,” he said. “If I have to wait one or two hours every day for charging, that’s lost income for me that I can’t afford. I also don’t know how to maintain an e-rickshaw or stop the batteries getting stolen.”
However, he conceded that the city’s pollution was unbearable for rickshaw drivers forced to breathe in deadly fumes. “I am not against change and making the air clean, but I hope we are not the ones to pay the price,” said Gopi.
The policy also introduced significant road and vehicle tax exemptions for people buying new electric cars, in an attempt to incentivise drivers to switch over by choice. However, some critics expressed concern that two years was too short a window to phase out new petrol scooters and rickshaws and ensure there was enough consumer choice.
The height of the bars shows the total increase in the demand for electricity, each year, in TWh (terawatt-hours). One TWh = 1000 GWh (Gigawatt-hours) or 1 million MWh (Megawatt-hours).
So in 2020, Covid caused low growth in total demand, and this was mostly met by renewables. But in 2021, demand rebounded strongly as Covid lockdowns were partially removed, with the result that only a third of the increase was met by renewables. Excluding the jump in demand in 2021, the rise in electricity demand each year over the last 3 years is the highest it's been. And each of those three years, the percentage supplied by renewables has risen, and in 2025 it exceeded 100%.
Economic growth will increase electricity demand each year, on average, but the key point is that non-fossil supply growth (30% per annum) is much faster than total demand. Now that it's reached parity, the gap will widen. Renewables will more and more rapidly eat into coal's market share.
If you add the S-curve acceleration of EV sales, it is clear that China's emissions have peaked. Which means world emissions have peaked too, though don't expect a rapid plunge — yet.
India's story is a bit different. Yes, renewables filled more than 100% of the increase in demand last year, but that's because demand growth was low (due to an early-onset monsoon reducing temperatures below previous years', meaning less air conditioning was needed). India's growth in electricity demand is about 85 TWh per annum, but is expected to increase, while the increase in supply from renewables was just 71 TWh. So if the summer heat is typical this year, supply from coal will increase, meaning emissions will increase. But the growth rate in renewables is much higher than the growth rate in demand. These lines will soon cross over again.
India added 35GW of solar, 6GW wind and 3.5GW hydropower [capacity] in the first 11 months of 2025, with renewable energy capacity additions picking up 44% year-on-year.
Power generation from non-fossil sources grew 71TWh, led by solar at 33TWh, while total generation increased 21TWh, similarly pushing down power generation from coal and gas.
The increase in clean power is, however, below the average demand growth recorded from 2019 to 2024, at 85TWh per year, as well as below the projection for 2026-30.
This means that clean-energy growth would need to accelerate in order for coal power to see a structural peak and decline in output, rather than a short-term blip.
Meeting the government’s target for 500GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030, set by India’s prime minister Narendra Modi in 2021, requires just such an acceleration.
[...]one major obstacle common across China, India, and Indonesia is the continued addition of new coal-fired power plants and mining capacity. The new clean energy infrastructures being built in each country creates powerful resistance from the coal industry, which will only intensify once coal demand begins to contract. This political and economic inertia threatens to slow the clean energy transition and lock in high-carbon energy systems in these countries for decades to come, making a rapid post-peak decline in emissions far from guaranteed.
The continued fall in the costs of solar panels and batteries will be a powerful countervailing force, because of course, coal is not getting any cheaper, but governments in all three countries would be wise to ban all new coal power stations immediately. They won't be needed.
Clean electricity production in India has surged by 20% to new highs so far this year, giving utilities a rare chance to cut fossil fuel-fired generation and reduce reliance on energy imports for power production.
India's clean electricity sources are also on track to provide a third of its utility electricity for the first time over the next month or so, thanks to record combined output from renewables, hydro and nuclear assets, data from Ember shows.
The steep build in home-grown clean electricity comes just as India faces unprecedented scrutiny over its energy import practices, particularly its heavy reliance on sanctioned Russian oil that has triggered stiff new tariffs from the United States.
Solar output rising exponentially
India also faces pressure to boost imports of U.S. LNG as a means to reduce its trade deficit with the United States, but has steadily reduced its reliance on gas for power as clean energy output has increased.
Continued growth in clean generation - alongside rising homemade production of clean energy tech such as solar panels and battery systems - may help India limit its reliance on foreign-sourced fossil fuels while continuing to expand its overall energy generation.
Over the first half of 2025, India's utilities generated a record 236 terawatt hours (TWh) of clean electricity, data from Ember shows.
That total is 20% more than during the same months in 2024, and allowed utilities to curb generation from fossil fuels by 4% from the year before to around 691 TWh.
A 29% jump in wind generation (to 47.2 TWh) and a 25% rise in solar generation (to 85 TWh) were the main drivers of the advance in clean electricity supplies.
The collective upswing in multiple clean generation sources is leading to clean power grabbing a record share of India's generation mix, which will likely exceed 30% for the months of July, August and September.
Over the first half of 2025, total clean generation from all sources was around 24% more than average generation levels from India's clean generation assets during the same months from 2022 to 2024.
If wind and hydro production rise as expected during July, August and September, total clean electricity production in India will smash previous records this year and may set the stage for even steeper cuts to fossil fuel generation going forward.
Given the fast pace of electricity demand growth in India, utilities are likely to continue adding coal-fired generation capacity to the generation system to ensure that overall electricity supplies keep up with consumption.
But with solar and wind capacity expected to continue growing at a faster pace, the share of fossil fuels within India's overall generation mix may be close to peaking, which would mark a major milestone for India's fast-growing energy system.
An established peak in the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation could then trigger a potential decline in fossil fuel imports and use, and reduce the pressure on India to succumb to international pressure on oil and gas import trends.
In this piece, Emissions have peaked, I argued that China's emissions have most probably peaked, because of the extraordinarily rapid roll-out of solar, and the S-curve rise in EVs as a percentage of total car sales.
Europe's emissions peaked in 1990. They are back at 1965 levels. The USA's emissions peaked in 2007, and its emissions have fallen to 1987 levels. The UK's emissions peaked in 1973, and are back at 1880 levels. Japan's emissions peaked in 2013.
If China's emissions have peaked, then the big remaining emitter where emissions must peak, is India. And it looks as if India's emissions might be close to peaking, too. Emissions from fossil fuel electricity generation fell 4% in the first half of this year. Yet India is booming---the average annual GDP growth rate over the last 5 years was 7%. In other words, despite high growth, the share of renewables still rose and fossil fuel emissions still fell.
Global emissions have almost certainly peaked. And this is at least in part due to the plunge in solar and battery prices, which have moved switching from fossil fuels to renewables from a luxury only rich countries could afford to a necessity where even poor countries are willing to do it. Global emissions will fall slowly at first, but the decline will accelerate as solar, battery, and EV prices continue to decline. And when emissions have fallen enough, global temperatures will stop rising.
Almost 3/4 of the EU’s electricity in 2024 was from renewable energy sources and nuclear.
Gas and coal electricity generation is at record low levels.
My comments:
India (a big polluter) still has a long way to go.
China's wind and solar are growing fast enough for emissions from electricity generation to start falling, maybe this year, maybe next. Add in the skyrocketing growth in EVs and China's emissions have probably peaked.
Europe's total emissions are back where they were in 1964, even through GDP and living standards are way higher. A great achievement, which shows you what can be done.
The US's decline in emissions has prolly been overstated because "fugitive emissions" (=gas leaks) are much higher than estimated. Look how much US electricity comes from burning gas.
But coal remains the big no-no. And we -- the world -- still use far too much of it.
World CO2 emissions continue to rise -- see the lower chart below.
These two charts show emissions from burning fossil fuels and from making cement and steel, i.e., they exclude emissions from agriculture and forest clearing.
The countries in the top chart produce ~60% of these types of emissions. Emissions in the EU have fallen 40% from their peak in 1979, and are back at 1963 amounts. Emissions in the USA peaked in 2007, and have fallen 20% since then. Unfortunately, emissions from China and India have risen so much that they more than offset the reduction in the two biggest economic blocs in the world. China passed the EU in 2000, and the US in 2006. India's emissions already exceed Europe's.
If China's emissions peak this year or next, because of the roll-out of renewables and the expansion of EVs, then world emissions will have peaked, except .... India's emissions are booming. If India's emissions go on rising as fast as they have been, the fall in China's emissions will be completely offset.
The good news is that the costs of solar, wind and storage continue to decline. Regardless of your stance on climate change, it now makes sense to switch from fossil fuels in electricity generation and land transport. The process is slowed down because of the existing capital stock/vehicle fleet, which will prolly take 15 or 20 years to be replaced.
But emissions from cement and steel production, and emissions in agriculture, remain problematic. We are just at the beginning of technological advances which will find new ways of producing steel and cement, or low-carbon replacements for these products. As for agriculture, no one is willing to forgo meat and dairy, and in fact poorer countries are consuming more as they get richer.
Also, the declines in emissions in the USA and the EU have been welcome, but they're not fast enough. The US's emissions have fallen by just 1.8% per year since 2007, the EU's by 0.6% per annum since 1979, though the rate has increased to 2.1% per annum since 2006. To stop temperatures rising, we need to slash emissions by at least 90%. If emissions decline by 2% per annum, it will take 100 years before they fall by 90%. At a 3% per annum decline, emissions will fall 90% in 65 years. At a 4% per annum decline, we'll reach that goal in 45 years, at 5% in 35 years. The logic is obvious.
10 years ago, I wrote about "The 4% Club", arguing for a 4% per annum cut in emissions in developed countries to allow for a 1% per annum rise in developing countries. But global emissions have risen 6% since then, not fallen. Global temperatures are now rising by 0.3 degrees per decade, not 0.2. We are running out of time.
Setting a target of net-zero at some distant point in the future won't achieve the kind of cuts we need in emissions. We need to set annual targets for emissions cuts. High annual targets. 4% a year is just too little, now. It might have worked if we'd started it in 2014. It's way too slow now.
Developed countries need to target an annual emissions cut of at least 5% a year, every year. China needs to peak its emissions, and start an accelerated decline. Given China's investment in renewables and her huge expansion of EVs/PHEVs, I think that's likely. But I've been wrong before. And, even though India is investing in solar, the single-minded pursuit of "new energy markets" so obvious in China, isn't evident in India. Try harder, India.
Yet I get the depressed feeling that none of this will happen. In 2014, I thought rationality would triumph. Now, I doubt that. Mankind has shown a distressing ability to avoid serious action while pretending heartily that something is being done. We collectively prefer greenwashing to actual steps to cut emissions. Easy lies instead of hard truths.
At a 2% per annum decline---which is optimistic given China's and India's emissions pathways---we'll zoom past the 1.5 degree target (if we haven't already) and be heading for 2.7 degrees or more.
Extreme heat has gripped much of south and south-east Asia over recent weeks, killing dozens of people, forcing millions of students to miss school and destroying crops.
Both the Philippines and Bangladesh shut schools due to the unbearable heat last month, while governments across the region have issued health warnings. In Thailand, at least 30 people have died from heatstroke since the start of the year.
The extreme weather has seen durian fruit burst on trees in Thailand, destroyed rice crops and caused eggs to shrink, according to local media. The heat has even been cited as a factor that led to an ammunition blast in Cambodia that killed 20 soldiers at an army base last weekend.
Records have been broken across the region. Bangladesh experienced its hottest April ever recorded, with daily maximum temperatures between 2C and 8C hotter than the 33.2C average daily high for the month. In Myanmar, 48.2C was reached in the town of Chauk, in central Magway region – the hottest April temperature since records began.
In Vietnam, 102 weather stations reported record highs in April. Northern and central areas of the country experienced temperatures up to 4C higher than the same period last year, while seven stations recorded temperatures above 43C on Tuesday last week. Kolkata, in India, also reached 43C, the city’s hottest April day since 1954.
Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said: “The frequency, intensity, duration and the area covered by these heatwaves are increasing over time. We are on a rollercoaster ride in terms of temperature, which is not going to come down any time soon. It’s going to be worse, which means we need to be prepared.”
Koll added that there was a need for governments to adapt – by developing policies to decide, for example, when schools should be shut or how to protect workers.
KC Libre, 15, is a student at Manuel Roxas high school in Manila, but she is currently studying at home after the school suspended in-person classes last week. “This is the first time that our classes have been suspended because of the hot weather,” she said. “We have 47 students in our class. Even with electric fans, it’s still hot, and usually there are only two electric fans switched on because ceiling fans in some of the rooms are broken.
“I feel irritated and can’t focus when it’s hot. The rooms are on the fourth floor, and so especially when I go up and down [the stairs], it’s really difficult … I won’t have even started writing yet but I’m already sweating.
“Even in our home it’s so hot. We don’t have aircon because we are not well-off. I do my school work at night because it’s less hot. In the morning, it’s as if extreme heat is blowing into you.
“The air coming from the electric fans is so hot … The heat inside of the oven … that’s what it feels like.”
Sae Klomkamnerd, 63, a farmer in Phichit province in Thailand, was forced to sell his 5,200 ducks as the extreme heat stopped them from laying eggs. “During the day, we would draw more groundwater to fill our pond, so the ducks can go in the water to cool down,” he said.
“But it’s still too hot; after 9 or 10 in the morning, the water becomes hot and they don’t want to get in any more. They just go in the shade and hide under the trees.
“In normal weather, 80-90% of the young ducks will lay eggs, but right now, when it’s so hot, it’s down to 60% or even down to 50%. In the case of the older ducks, the number of eggs is even down to 30%.”
He said the eggs the ducks did manage to lay were smaller than usual, meaning each tray of eggs weighed less and therefore fetched a lower price when sold. “I could only get 75 baht [£1.60] for those trays; in a good year, we could sell them for 100-105 baht per tray. This year is really awful, it’s really hard.”
Lay Samrach, 44, a construction worker in Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s capital, said: “I have never experienced this kind of heat. Other years were hot but this year it’s even hotter. When it’s too hot I can’t breathe.”
“Last year, we only took one break in the afternoon, but now we have up to three breaks in the afternoon because of the heat. I have to leave all my equipment in the shade. If I don’t do so it will break down my materials. Last year, I could leave my shovel out, but this year I can’t leave it out because I can’t use it if it’s so hot.”
Of course, the wealthy in these countries live in air-conditioned homes, drive in air-conditioned cars to air-conditioned shopping centres or air-conditioned offices. They don't care about the lethal temperatures that ordinary people must face. And they're also the people who are financing the new coal power stations that these countries are all still building, causing CO2 emissions from all the countries to just keep on rising.
And of course, the giant emitter in the region, India, which is however still outdone by the rest of Asia:
When I've previously pointed out how large and how fast India's emissions have been and are rising, I've been told off. India, these people point out, is not responsible for the historic emissions produced by developed countries, who now have comfortable lifestyles, whereas Indians do not. Which is true. But irrelevant. The climate does not care about history--all that matters is that now the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising: and Asia, including India, China and the rest of Asia, is now the key contributor. Emissions in developed countries (for which the OECD is a good proxy) have been falling since 2007, though admittedly by a measly 1.2% per annum compound:
And in any case, if all new electricity generation came from renewables sources, emissions in these countries would grow much more slowly. These countries are all sunbelt countries, they could all, for example, get their electricity in daytime from solar, and at night from coal, more than halving their emissions from electricity. Building new solar farms instead of new coal power stations would be cheaper than new coal power stations.
The IEA is notorious for the conservatism of its renewables forecasts, having consistently underestimated the roll-out of renewables over more than a decade, while consistently underestimated the fall in costs. So, to make a forecast like this ...... well!!!!
Unfortunately, it's not enough to avert a ruinous 2 degree rise in global temperatures since before industrialisation began.
Global electricity demand growth is expected to ease in 2023 before accelerating in 2024. Demand is expected to grow by slightly less than 2% in 2023, down from a rate of 2.3% in 2022 and the average annual growth rate of 2.4% observed over the 2015-2019 period. This moderation is strongly driven by declining electricity demand in advanced economies, which are dealing with the ongoing effects of the global energy crisis and slower economic growth. In 2024, as expectations for the economic outlook improve, global electricity demand growth is forecast to rebound to 3.3%.
Electricity demand in the European Union is set to decline in 2023 for the second year in a row, falling to its lowest level in two decades. EU electricity demand is expected to record a 3% drop in 2023, after already falling 3% in 2022. This is despite strong growth in electrification with a record number of electric vehicles and heat pumps sold. Following these two consecutive declines, which together amount to the region’s largest slump in demand on record, EU electricity demand is set to drop to levels last seen in 2002.
Europe's energy-intensive industries have not yet recovered from last year’s production slump, as evidenced by the staggering 6% year-on-year decline in total EU electricity demand during the first half of 2023. Almost two-thirds of the net reduction in EU electricity demand in 2022 is estimated to be from energy-intensive industries grappling with elevated energy prices. This trend has continued well into 2023, despite the prices for energy commodities and electricity falling from their previous record highs. As policy developments abroad courting industrial investment put pressure on Europe’s industrial competitiveness, the European Union is at a crossroads. The outcome of policy discussions now underway could determine the future of its energy-intensive industrial sector.
The substantial demand declines in advanced economies contrast sharply with the growth observed in emerging economies such as China and India. Japan is similarly expected to record a significant 3% fall in electricity demand in 2023, while the United States is set to see a decrease of almost 2%. In contrast, China's electricity demand is expected to increase by 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024, slightly below its 2015-2019 average of 5.4%. India is set to have an average annual growth rate of 6.5% over the outlook period, surpassing its 2015-2019 average of 5.2%.
The accelerated pace of new renewable capacity additions shows that renewable generation could surpass coal as early as 2024, if weather conditions are favourable. This is supported by the expectation that coal-fired generation will slightly decline in 2023 and 2024 after rising 1.5% in 2022, when high gas prices boosted demand for alternatives. Increases in coal-fired generation in Asia in 2023 and 2024 are poised to be offset by strong drops in the United States and Europe.
Renewables are set to meet all additional demand in 2023 and 2024. With global demand growth easing in 2023, incremental increases in renewables alone are expected to cover all additional demand not only this year, but also in 2024, when demand growth is expected to accelerate again. By 2024, the share of renewable generation in global electricity supply will exceed one-third for the first time.
By 2024, electricity generation from fossil fuels is expected to have fallen four times in six years. Declines in fossil-fired generation were rare in the past and occurred primarily after global energy and financial shocks, such as following the oil crises of the 1970s or during the Great Recession in 2009, when overall electricity demand was suppressed. But in recent years, fossil-fired supply has lagged or fallen even when electricity demand expanded. These trends – driven by the strong growth in renewable generation – suggest the declines in fossil electricity generation are becoming structural. The world is rapidly moving towards a tipping point where global electricity generation from fossil fuels begins to decline and is increasingly replaced by electricity from clean energy sources.
Increases in emissions from power generation in China and India are expected to be more than offset by declines in other regions. The European Union alone accounts for 40% of the total decline in emissions from power generation expected to occur in 2023 and 2024, excluding China and India. The EU is followed by the United States, where renewables deployment is growing strongly, and gas is increasingly replacing coal-fired supply. Extreme weather, unexpected economic shocks and changes to government policies can cause an uptick in emissions in specific years. However, the overall trend of global power sector emissions plateauing is expected to persist, with years in which emissions decline, not rise, becoming more frequent.
Rising demand for cooling is straining the world’s power systems. Summers with extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent in many regions, elevating electricity demand for cooling systems and stretching power supplies. As more households start purchasing air conditioners, the impact will increase in many countries – especially in emerging economies that currently have a much lower share of households with AC than advanced economies with comparable climates. Setting higher efficiency standards for air conditioning would greatly help limit the impact of additional cooling demand on power systems. To ensure system reliability, it will be crucial to have adequate backup generation capacities, encourage demand management and energy storage, accelerate grid investments, and enhance fuel supply security for power plants. Insufficient preparedness in these areas could lead to more frequent stress on grids, resulting in load-shedding and blackouts.
If China and India were to stop building new coal power stations, then emissions from electricity generation would start to fall really fast. The IEA's forecast decline is good news, but not good enough. We need to halve emissions from all sources over the next 10 years. Thanks to increases in China and India, the decline in emissions from electricity generation is just 1.9% over 2 years. If China and India just kept their emissions constant, then the fall would be more like 5%. Depressing
The Indian government will not consider any proposals for new coal plants for the next five years and focus on growing its renewables sector, according to an updated national electricity plan released Wednesday evening.
The temporary pause in the growth of the dirty fuel was hailed by energy experts as a positive step for a country that is currently reliant on coal for around 75% of its electricity.
Updated every five years, the plan serves as a guideline for India’s priorities in its electricity sector.
In a draft of the plan released in September, the Central Electricity Authority, which is in charge of planning for India’s electricity needs, projected that nearly 8,000 megawatts of new coal capacity was required by 2027. But Wednesday’s strategy proposes the build out of more than 8,600 megawatts of battery energy storage systems instead.
Battery storage is crucial for round-the-clock use of renewable energy.
“This plan is a step in the right direction,” said Raghav Pachouri, an energy sector expert at Vasudha Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Pachouri said one reason the plans for new coal might have been scrapped is because there are already some coal plants under construction.
The country is also experiencing longer summers and hotter weather in part due to climate change, meaning greater electricity demand during the scorching day, making it easier to fulfill energy needs with renewables, said Pachouri.
“When you need energy during the day, solar power can provide for it,” he said.
India plans to install 500 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030, enough energy to power anywhere from 150 to 500 million homes depending on power use, but is not on course to meet that target, according to Aditya Lolla, an energy analyst at the think tank Ember.
“We’re installing only up to 17 gigawatts a year, this needs to increase to 40 to 45 gigawatts to meet targets,” said Lolla.
The new plan goes on to project that new coal power will be built after 2027, but Lolla says this should be taken with a pinch of salt.
“Traditionally, projections for the coming five years are more concrete and those for the subsequent years are essentially placeholders,” said Lolla. “India wants to move towards a cleaner power system. With every electricity plan, the coal pipeline is falling.”
Lolla predicts that with the current volatile global energy picture, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate change and pandemic recovery, India will take a call on its longer-term energy plan at a future date, depending on how things progress by 2027.
Workers install solar panels on the roof of a residential apartment in Kochi, southern Kerala state, India, March 22, 2023. (AP Photo/R S Iyer, File)
There are only a few countries still building new coal power stations. India was supposed to save world coal mines, but it seems likely that India's coal use is close to peaking, though India still has 28.5 GW of capacity in its coal power station pipeline. This compares to China's 250 GW.
India plans to stop building new coal-fired power plants, apart from those already in the pipeline, by removing a key clause from the final draft of its National Electricity Policy (NEP), in a major boost to fight climate change, sources said.
The draft, if approved by the federal cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would make China the only major economy open to fresh requests to add significant new coal-fired capacity.
India and China account for about 80% of all active coal projects as most developing nations wind down capacity to meet climate targets. As of January 2023, only 20 countries have more than one coal project planned, according to E3G, an independent climate think tank.
"After months of deliberations, we have arrived at a conclusion that we would not need new coal additions apart from the ones already in pipeline," one of three government sources said.
The sources declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media. India's power ministry did not respond to requests seeking comment.
The new policy, if approved, would not impact the 28.2 GW of coal-based power in various stages of construction, the sources said.
China and India have together been lobbying for freedom for countries to choose a roadmap to cut emissions.
India, whose proposed coal power capacity is the highest after China, had repeatedly refused to set a timeline to phase out coal, citing low per-capita emissions, surging renewable energy capacity and demand for inexpensive fuel sources.
Coal is expected to be the dominant fuel in generating electricity in India for decades, but activists have pressed for a halt to new coal-fired plants, arguing this would at least help to reduce the share of the polluting fuel in overall power output.
The draft, India's first attempt at revising its electricity policy enacted in 2005, also proposes delaying the retirement of old coal-fired plants until energy storage for renewable power becomes financially viable, the sources said.
So far, old coal-fired power plants with a cumulative capacity of 13 GW have been earmarked for functioning post retirement deadline to meet high power demand, they said.
In the first draft of the NEP in 2021, India had said it may add new coal-fired capacity, though it proposed tighter technology standards to reduce pollution.
The Central Electricity Authority, an advisory body to the federal power ministry, had said last year India might have to add as much as 28 GW of new coal-fired power in addition to the plants under construction to address surging power demand.
However, the final draft, which will guide India's policymaking on energy over the next decade, features no references to new coal-fired power, the sources said.
In contrast, China's National Development and Reform Commission said in a March 2022 document that outlined its energy policy, that the world's largest coal user "will rationally build advanced coal-fired power plants based on development needs."
China plans to build some 100 new coal-fired power plants to back up wind and solar capacity, which analysts said goes against Beijing's stated intention to reduce the role of coal.
The policy revision could also impact long-term coal prices and miners in Indonesia, Australia and South Africa, as India is the world's second-largest coal importer.
But emissions continue to rise:
We are not yet at peak coal. Which means emissions haven't yet peaked. Depressing.
India is likely to face a blistering summer after recording its hottest February since 1901, its weather department has said. Average maximum temperature was 29.5C in February, the highest since India started keeping proper weather records. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast "enhanced probability" of heatwaves between March and May. Prolonged heat could affect wheat production and push up power demand.
"Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India" from March to May, the IMD said in a statement on Tuesday.
The forecast comes days after the weather department issued and later withdrew its first heatwave alert for the year in parts of western India after conditions improved.
Hot summers and heatwaves are common in India, especially in May and June. But like last year, summer seems set to begin earlier this year - last March was India's hottest since 1901. Experts have also said that India is now experiencing more intense, frequent heatwaves that are longer in duration.
Last year, India was forced to ban wheat exports after unseasonably hot weather affected the crop, sending local prices soaring. In February, the federal government set up a committee to monitor the impact of high temperatures on this year's harvest. Reuters had cited an unnamed government official as saying at the time that "the current crop condition looks good". India is the world's second biggest wheat producer.
The unusually high temperatures had also triggered a spike in power demand last year, leading to outages in many states. This year too, demand for electricity has already reached near-record levels in recent weeks, Bloomberg reported.
Many experts have also been raising concerns about the effect of extreme heat on poor people, who often have to work outside and less access to resources to help them stay cool.
"Heatwaves can have serious health consequences. If temperatures are high even at night, the body doesn't get a chance to recuperate, increasing the possibility of illnesses and higher medical bills," Dr Chandni Singh, an environmental scientist, told the BBC last year.
India saw a 55% rise in deaths due to extreme heat between 2000-2004 and 2017-2021, according to a study published last year in the medical journal, The Lancet.
India’s metal producers are speeding up their transition to renewable power after a coal crisis led to a supply crunch and sky-high prices of the fossil fuel, according to Greenko Energy Holdings.
Greenko is now in talks with two to three other metal producers for round-the-clock power supply, co-founder Mahesh Kolli said, declining to name the firms.
The coal crisis is “a big factor that accelerated this transition” to renewable power from coal-based energy usage, Kolli said in an interview. The metals industry in India is willing to invest in renewable energy and build solar plants, adding a big funding source for clean energy, he said.
The country is emerging from an acute power crisis after a blistering summer and a post-pandemic industrial revival, which spurred electricity demand and overwhelmed domestic coal output. That prompted some metal producers to scour global markets for supplies, where prices are trading near record levels.
The increased expenses slashed profits of some of the biggest mills in India at a time when commodity prices were rallying to multi-year highs. They are now exploring ways to minimize their dependence on coal, with renewable energy looking more attractive.
“In this carbon-free energy that we are giving, this price is fixed for the next 25 years,” Kolli said. “So now at least when the price goes up, they benefit a lot.”
ounded in 2004, Hyderabad-based Greenko develops solar, wind and hydro power projects with 7.5 gigawatts of operating capacity across 15 states in India. Aside from GIC, it counts Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Japan’s Orix Corp. as investors.
Greenko uses hydro-pumped storage technology to ensure round-the-clock power to the mills. Unlike Europe and the US, where storage costs are high, developers in India have been following a similar model to China and have managed to control the expenses using this cheaper technology, Kolli said.
Greenko expects to benefit as India’s renewable market opens up due to rapid industrial decarbonization. Currently, India’s renewable energy market is dominated by state-run power utilities as the government has ordered them to buy a certain percentage of clean electricity. To spur industrial carbon reduction efforts, India’s power ministry has changed rules to allow large power consumers to buy green electricity directly from a supplier of their choice without having to pay heavy charges to the state distribution utilities.
“The industrial decarbonization, without putting obligations on utilities, is a four to five times bigger opportunity for renewables,” Kolli said.
Maximum temperatures in India and Pakistan have been continuously over 40 degrees Celsius for almost a fortnight, exceeding the average for early April by up to 10 degrees Celsius in certain regions.
For days at a time in early April, people and animals across large swathes of India and Pakistan lay gasping in whatever shade they could find as the temperature exceeded 43 degrees Celsius and dry wind from the desert seared the plains of Indus and Ganga river basins. As Delhi recorded a maximum of 42.6C on 11 April, 7C above average for this day of the year, there was just one topic of conversation when people ventured out after dusk: nobody could remember such an early heatwave. Few could remember 40-plus days before May or June when such temperatures would be expected.
Meanwhile, across Central Asia, people used to far cooler weather suffered as the thermometer reached the 30s.
The early heatwave was particularly grueling for those fasting during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan – when the faithful do not even drink water between sunrise and sunset – and the Hindu holy period Navratra. Residents of urban slums fared the worst under tin or asbestos roofs.
Weather forecasts promised little relief, just more warnings of heatwaves across Punjab, Sindh, and Rajasthan on both sides of the India-Pakistan border, then eastwards across Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and beyond. A few rain-bearing clouds blowing from the Caspian Sea evaporated by the time they reached the Himalayan foothills.
The early heatwave scorched the plains of Pakistan, including megapolis Karachi, reminding residents of 2015 when at least 1,200 people died due to severe heat in Sindh province, of which Karachi is the capital. Hot winds from the desert pushed the sea breeze away from the coast.
In what many called a spring-less year, 2022’s winter suddenly transformed into scorching summer when Pakistan experienced an unprecedented heatwave in March. An advisory issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on 15 March warned that day temperatures would remain unusually high in most parts of the country during this period. As forecast, record-breaking temperatures were recorded in some cities. Shaheed Benazirabad in Sindh recorded temperatures of 45.5C on 27 and 28 March.
According to a second PMD warning issued for the first week of April, daytime temperatures were expected to remain 9-11C above normal in Sindh, South Punjab, and parts of Baluchistan, and 8-10C above normal in northern Punjab, Islamabad, and even in the mountains.
Local media reported that the early heatwave has led to more fires on farms in Pakistan as well as India, just as the winter wheat crop is ready to be harvested. Authorities in Pakistan are also worried about increased evaporation from water reservoirs in a country already facing severe water stress.
If heatwaves were to be mapped, Jacobabad, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Hyderabad, and Karachi would emerge as red dots. Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that Pakistan will likely face longer and more intense heatwaves as a consequence of climate change, even if global temperatures rise by only 1.5 or 2C.
In this situation, what seems to be sorely missing is any clear plan of action by government departments. Other than sporadic public service messages, there is little forethought or groundwork to save local communities from the impacts of heatwaves.
It is supposed to be spring in Central Asia, but temperatures have reached midsummer levels of 30-33C in Uzbekistan, 8-10C above average for early April. Temperatures in northern Kyrgyzstan including the capital Bishkek hit 26-28C in the first week of April, again well above average.
All records were broken in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, when the thermometer reached 36.6C, 6C higher than the previous record for this date in 1991.
Heatwaves have more severe impacts in areas unused to them. A 2021 heatwave in Kazakhstan’s Mangystau region killed more than 1,000 livestock, with farmers scrambling for insufficient supplies of livestock feed. Sustained periods of unusually high heat can also impact regional water supply. Facing prolonged drought in 2021, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, downstream countries of the rivers flowing from the Hindu Kush Himalayas, reportedly sought ‘guarantees’ of uninterrupted water supply from upstream countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Scientists classify heatwaves as one of the earliest and most obvious impacts of climate change. This year’s early heatwave has come as the average global temperature stands at 1.17C higher than in 1850, at the start of the Industrial Age. Governments have pledged under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to keep this temperature rise to within 2C, and strive towards a ceiling of 1.5C, though their current actions are putting the world on course for a rise of at least 2.7C by 2100.
According to a 2021 study, deadly heat stress conditions might become common across South Asia even at 1.5C warming. The authors point out that ‘wet bulb temperatures’ above 32C affect human productivity, while 35C is considered the limit of human survivability, and that parts of South Asia are already experiencing these conditions.
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