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| Source: Off Target, from the UN Environment Programme Note: I believe that the UN is using the convention that methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide over 100 years. The better way to count methane, I think, is its effect over 20 years, when it is 80 times as potent a green house gas as CO2. This would significantly increase the percentage of emissions from agriculture above the ~20% shown in this table. |
Next year, this humungous El Niño could drive temperatures to 1.7 or 1.8 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This is, of course, catastrophic. Things will get very ugly, unless we redouble our efforts to slash emissions.
What can we do?
First, what can governments do?
✔️ Set a renewable energy target. The percentage of renewables+nuclear in electricity generation needs to rise by 6-8% a year, or more, if we are to eliminate electricity's emissions before it is too late.Emissions from electricity generation are just under 30% of total global emissions. We may not yet be able to go above 90 or 95% renewables in the grid, because we don't have long-term storage to offset periods of dunkelflaute, but we can certainly aim for 90%, and reconsider what we need to do next when we get there.
How would this work? Each utility would be required to reach the levels set in the RET each year. Those which exceeded this target would get credits, those which didn't would have to buy credits, either from their more successful peers, or from the government. This would encourage utilities to replace coal and gas with wind/solar/batteries/nuclear/hydro. I include nuclear, but in truth, it can't be built fast enough. But if there is already nuclear available, it shouldn't be closed down.
If we aim for a maximum of 10% fossil fuels in electricity generation within 10 years, we will have cut emissions by 27%. And, remember, in principle, every use of energy can be electrified. So removing fossil fuels from electricity generation is key.
✔️ Every country should introduce a carbon tax. It doesn't have to be swingeing to start out with, but it should rise every year, and the pathway should be clear to everybody. To prevent emission leakage — you tax your industries while others don't tax theirs — you must also tax imports from countries which do not have an R.E.T. or a price on carbon. (See my posts on a carbon border tax)
✔️ We need to accelerate the replacement of petrol/diesel vehicles (ICEVs) with EVs. 15% of emissions come from transport. Because even when we reach 100% of sales being EVs, it will take 10-20 years for all ICEVs on the roads to be replaced. This is too long. Most countries are nowhere near 100% EV sales, even though this percentage has risen sharply over the last 9 months. To accelerate this process, we could, for example, ban the import of new and second-hand ICEVs, or slap 100% taxes on them. By taxing new petrol cars and subsidising EVs, we would rive a wedge between the up-front costs of EVs and ICEVs. Ethiopia has already done this. This policy should apply to two and three-wheeled vehicles, too. Countries which do this deserve reduced carbon border taxes. And we should press on with bi-mode and battery trains and electric planes.
✔️ We need to replace oil- or gas-based household and industrial heating with heat pumps. They're four times as efficient as gas, oil, or electric heaters, and so are cheaper to run, but they have higher up-front costs. They will require government subsidy to start the revolution rolling.
All of these combined will cut emissions by 50 or more. If we also switch to low-emission steel and cement, the emissions cuts could reach 65%.
Second, what can you do?
✔️ The steps above will leave mostly agricultural emissions to be reduced, which (but see note on graphic above) are ~20% of emissions. This is too hard for governments to act on — now. People love their meat too much to give it up. But it won't go away. When we've cut emissions by 70%, agriculture will dominate what's left over. And action will no longer be postponable.
✔️ Until then, you personally can cut beef, mutton, pork and cow's milk out of your diet, which would more than halve your emissions from the food you eat. Even better: if land is freed from animal raising, it can be re-wilded, which reduces the level of Co2 in the atmosphere. Negative emissions! If you really care about global heating, this is something direct you can do. You can only force governments to switch to renewables by acting collectively (by voting), and though we shouldn't give up trying to get collective action, we don't need anybody else's permission to eat less meat. It's something you can start today.
The position is far from hopeless. We have the technology to slash emissions from electricity generation and transport. What we lack is the will to act. Perhaps the upcoming Godzilla El Niño will shift the political logjam. Make it so.
