Monday, August 31, 2026

New tightening cycle beginning?

The chart shows different measures of Central Bank discount rates (= cash rates/bank rates/Fed Funds rate).

The green line is the GDP-weighted average.  It would be biased towards countries with a high percentage of world GDP, such as the US, Europe, Japan, the UK, etc.  It covers countries which make up 83% of world GDP.

The blue line shows the median discount rate for all the countries I monitor.  The median is the midpoint of a range of data points.  So, currently, the median D/R is 4.30%.  Half the countries of the world have a lower rate than 4.3, and half a higher one. 

The red line shows the unweighted average.  Because so many developing countries have high inflation and therefore a high bank rate, this average is skewed towards these countries.  But it does reflect the actual bank rate the different countries of the world face.   

All measures have started rising.  Long-dated bond yields are also rising (see lower chart).

This means that credit is starting to dry up, which is typically not good for the world's share markets.  The initial impact of credit tightening tends to be felt in financial markets.  Later on, it spreads to the real economy.

So far, the tightening has been modest.  But if inflation remains stubbornly higher than CBs want, and the oil market remains tight, then the probability is that economic growth will, after the usual lag (~12 months) start to falter.

Meanwhile, the favourable winds driving the start market higher, are turning to headwinds.  And credit costs for the debt inflating the AI bubble are soaring.  And spending on AI has been driving economic growth in the US, and therefore also the world economy.  If (when!) credit for AI dries up, there will be a credit crunch and economic slump comparable to the 2008/2009 GFC.

There is a lot of risk out there.  Take care.





Saturday, August 29, 2026

The NEM's first solar-battery hybrid

 [NEM = National Electricity Market, and it covers all the eastern states of Australia]

From RenewEconomy

It’s the middle of winter. It’s cold, it’s dark, and in an isolated paddock along Back Trundle Road about 10 kms west of Parkes, famous for its telescope, a solar farm is doing something that no other large scale PV facility has done before: It’s sending its stored PV power into Australia’s main grid, at 10 pm in the evening.

It seems remarkable, but 14 years after the country’s first grid-scale solar project was connected to the grid, the Quorn Park solar hybrid facility, developed and owned by Potentia Energy, has become the first large scale solar-battery hybrid to be built in Australia’s main grid behind a single connection point.

The project is relatively small, and combines just 80 MW of solar and 19.8 MW, 39.6 MWh [2 hours] of battery storage – but it is very much a landmark project for the future of Australia’s main grid.

There are now virtually no large standalone solar projects being built in Australia, but several dozen solar-battery hybrids either already under construction, or sorting through the final details of their contracts and finances. Even wind farms are thinking about installing batteries next to individual turbines.

Most of these new solar-hybrid projects will be exponentially bigger than Quorn Park, including Potentia’s own Tallawang facility, about 200 kms from Quorn Park, which is looking at combining 500 MW of solar and 500 MW of battery capacity, and up to 2,000 MWh [4 hours]of storage.

“We are very proud to be the first,” Gabriele Mallarini, Potentia’s chief operating officer, tells Renew Economy during a site visit at Quorn Park earlier this month.

“The advantage is we need to be flexible because the network requires that level of flexibility. That means being able not only to follow a pattern, which is the one coming from the sun for the generation, but also be able to store and inject electricity when it’s needed on the network.

“And this is exactly what a hybrid that does, and it’s very much similar to what is happening across Australia, where households are installing batteries together with their solar rooftop, because they understand that there is the the best way is to use your own electricity to reduce the bill.

“Sometimes you are not at home, and you want to turn the lights later in the evening, and that’s why you have a battery. And this is very much the same concept.”

To be sure, Quorn Park is not quite the first large scale solar-battery hybrid in Australia – that honour goes to the larger Cunderdin project in the separate Western Australia grid that combines 120 MW of solar and 55 MW, and 220 MWh [4 hours] of battery storage – which was switched on last year.

And there are numerous smaller sub 5-MW projects across the country that have done the same, along with many off-grid installations that combine the two out of necessity.

Several different solar facilities feature big batteries built in a neighbouring paddock – at Darlington, Gannawarra, Limondale, Western Downs and Tailem Bend to name a few – but generally they must export solar to the grid and import it back to charge the battery.

Quorn Park, which was officially opened on Thursday, is the first to be built with a shared connection point. Which means it can store its own output at no cost (and import from the grid if it wanted), and save it for times when it is needed more by customers and can command a higher price.

Quorn Park output. Source: Open Electricity.
Yellow = insolation
Light yellow = charging
Blue = discharging

On a typical day, as other solar facilities are curtailed by low or negative wholesale prices [or by the grid operator], Quorn Park is able to dial down its exports to the grid, and store its solar production in its batteries (the light yellow below the line in the graph above).

Potentia – a joint venture between Italy’s Enel and Japan’s Inpex – will wait for a late afternoon or evening peak when it can then send the power to the grid at higher prices (the blue output).

Mallarini says the Quorn Park battery features AC-couple technology that allows three different operating modes – solar only, battery only, and solar battery hybrid – depending on the circumstances, and customer needs.

And it’s customer needs – as well as the changing dynamics of the grid – that are driving these changes. So, too, are other factors, particularly the falling cost of battery storage.

When Potentia sought grid approvals, the prevailing wisdom was that solar projects should be matched with battery capacity on a 4:1 basis. But now nearly project developer, including Potentia at its other projects, is looking at a 1:1 ratio, and with more storage.

In terms of battery sizing for co-located assets, the rule of thumb, three to four years ago, was four to one to make it profitable because the cost of batteries was quite high and because level[s] of curtailment were not so significant,” Mallarini says.

And now it’s changing because of the strong reduction in Lithium batteries that have become more available to increase the capacity, and then the rest is driven by the big push of solar both rooftop and large scale, which is has expanded the need for longer duration.

And the projects are getting much bigger.

“There are economies of scale to be considered, and we need to remember ourselves that at the moment we are still heavily reliant on coal-fired power stations,” Mallarini says

“Those coal-fired power stations are really aging. They will not be there forever, and there is a void to be filled, and the best way to do is to have a hybrid solar-battery, as well as wind generators, because there is a need for the state, for the nation, to have reliable and stable generation from renewables.”

The Quorn Park facility is also helping change the conversation about wind and solar – often accused by naysers as having lower quality electrons. But the opposite is true, particularly with facilities like Quorn Park.

The combination with battery storage and grid forming inverters means that the facility is actually boosting the strength of the grid in a relatively weak part of the networks, and is also getting paid to provide reactive power which can ensure voltage levels are maintained.

“We are not talking about big dollars, but it is very important because we are really helping the network when it’s needed, and the more assets distributed across the network, the more benefit, which is something that large centralized generators were providing just where they were connected,” Mallarini says.

“The fact that there are many assets spread across the network make the network more reliable, which is something that probably not everyone is across. 

“We have another asset in Western Australia, it’s on a very weak and stringy line south of Perth called Flat Rocks, and it’s a wind farm. And we provide reactive power support to the network, and the quality of the electricity in the area has improved because of us being there.”

SMA has provided both the PV and battery storage inverters, and Samuel Wiggins, the head of large scale service & technology at SMA, describes the project as an important milestone for the integration of solar and battery storage in Australia.

“Quorn Park uses an AC-coupled architecture, allowing the solar and battery systems to be controlled independently while operating as an integrated hybrid power plant under a single Generator Performance Standard and grid connection,” he said.

“This provides greater operational flexibility and enables the plant to respond more effectively to the needs of the electricity system.

“Modern inverter technology can also provide reactive power and voltage support, helping to maintain power quality and strengthen the network.

Quorn Park demonstrates how well-integrated solar and storage can contribute not only renewable electricity, but also valuable capabilities that support a stable and reliable grid.”

The Quorn Park facility also features single axis trackers, which allows the solar modules to follow the sun during the day, and bifacial panels, which pick up reflected light on the rear of the panel to boost output and efficiency.

The mowing will be the responsibility of the sheep that will have the run of the solar farm, and are excellent at keeping the grass and weeds at bay, and enjoying the shade and shelter.

Other solar farms that allow grazing have discovered significant increases in productivity from their flocks. Mallarani says merino are preferred, as they are less likely to scatter wildly when a vehicle or a person approaches.

It's tempting to call solar-battery hybrids baseload operators, but they're actually better than coal power stations, because they can tailor their output to grid demand, as well as providing reactive power and grid support much more quickly than synchronous condensers and gas peakers.  Plus, having far more generators spreads the risk if HVDC lines go down.



How to spot a psychopath

Source: VeryWellMind

 
[To be honest, you won't have to look far to find many prominent examples.]

From The Guardian 


The classic checklist for psychopathy was developed in 1980 by Prof Robert Hare, who is still the recognised giant of the territory. The 20 traits, which ranged from pathological lying to a lack of empathy, were based entirely on prison populations. This worked because not only did Hare have the benefit of a large sample, with pronounced psychopathic behaviours, but he was able to compare interviews and self-reporting with data collected about the individuals – so inconsistencies could be identified.

However, Hare knew this approach was limited. In 1976, he said that he simply didn’t know to what extent his results could be generalised to non-incarcerated psychopaths, including female ones. “Research into the socially successful psychopath is badly needed,” he concluded. Even decades later in the early 2000s, when Hare wanted to look into psychopaths in politics, he still needed to go to prison to find them (Pinochet’s henchmen in Chilean jails). Research into the higher-functioning psychopath – who doesn’t get caught, or maybe doesn’t even resort to crime – has proved elusive, not least because self-reporting questionnaires don’t work. Psychopaths lie; arguably, that’s their main thing.

It wasn’t from a forensic psychology but a business studies background that Dr Karen Mitchell arrived in the territory of high-functioning psychopathy. By the late 2010s, she’d spent 30 years working as a consultant on large-scale change in corporate culture. Her work tended to be with organisations in crisis: “So it might be market alignment, or deaths or suicides in companies,” she tells me from her home in Australia. Observing the sheer number of problems at work that stemmed from specific individuals with predatory traits, she started to research those same “dark personality” behaviours in other precincts. “Child sex abuse in religion, coercive control in human trafficking and domestic violence and terrorism,” she says. “When you look at all our global knowledge on human predators, there are so many fields and none of them interact.”

This matters because predatory personalities cause an astronomical amount of harm. We’re bad at recognising them interpersonally, for reasons to be discussed, but we’re also bad at pattern finding in aggregate – mainly because different disciplines have so many different names for these kinds of people. Mitchell lists some of the terms: “Malignant narcissist, dark triad, psychopath, coercive controller, primary psychopath, grandiose narcissist, corporate psychopath, Machiavellian, dark tetrad, covert narcissist, toxic leader.” These are all traits that she argues are part of the same phenomenon, the Dark Personality, or the Persistent Predatory Personality.

Mitchell embarked on a PhD, published in 2024, in which she interviewed people who had met persistent predatory personalities professionally – some clinical, but others not, from fields as wide as HR, social work, family courts, the FBI and other law enforcement agencies, church leaders, and academics from different fields.

Her method, she says, was unorthodox, being qualitative, not quantitative. And some of her conclusions directly contradict clinical definitions of psychopathy, which rely heavily on impulsivity. Mitchell says this is because other definitions such as Hare’s are derived from the prison population, which is the low-functioning end of the scale. “People try and put Hare’s stuff into workplaces and domestic violence spheres, but there’s no way you can overlay something so blunt, built from criminal offenders, on to sophisticated CEO-type behaviours.”

Mitchell’s interviews are remarkable. People from very different fields say alarmingly similar things: there’s one question about whether the interviewee had themselves ever been frightened of a persistent predatory personality (bear in mind that these weren’t victims, they were seasoned professionals) and the answers came back: “I constantly worry that he will ruin my career” (from an HR person); “I worry that they will … want to seek revenge” (from a social worker); “I am pretty sure there are no lengths to which this man would not go to, to see that I am destroyed” (expert practitioner from the charity sector). These and arguably every statement from the interviews are so extreme that you can’t imagine saying them socially because you would sound mad – which some testimonies explicitly address. “People can’t get it. People who don’t work in our fields … often don’t hear about or see the kind of evilness perpetrated on others, and just can’t believe it. Whereas, unfortunately, it’s commonplace in my work.” (That’s from one forensic expert practitioner).

From this research, which took her five years, Mitchell built a template of 20 attributes, divided into four clusters, and 25 tactics that would identify a high-functioning persistent predatory personality type. Cluster one includes a need for control; a grandiose sense of self; pathological inner response to challenge; vengefulness; refusal to compromise. Cluster two includes being predatory or exploitative; sadistic and cruel; having a low regard for laws, agreements, social and moral codes; no boundaries in sexual relationships; unreasonable expectations of others. Cluster three relates to the truth: Dark Personalities cultivate a façade of normality; they are chameleon-like; dishonest; devious and manipulative; and unwilling to accept responsibility for the negative impacts they cause. Finally, cluster four is around the Dark Personality’s own interior life: their emotions are acted and they do not experience affinity or the joy that comes with it; they are callous and devoid of empathy; unremorseful; self-interested; and brazen.

Essi Viding, a professor of developmental psychopathology at UCL, is a leading figure from the classic research sphere, co-director of the Developmental Risk and Resilience Unit and Hare’s natural successor in many ways. “I often think of these individuals as having an in-group of one,” she says. “In social psychology, we talk about people that we care about, and most of us, because we’re group-living animals, collaborate, do altruistic acts, we’ll behave in ways that across the ages have increased our survival. But across the ages, we’ve had people who exploit other people’s altruism, and when the chips come down, only care about themselves.”

Viding fixes on the traits that leave society extremely bad at protecting itself against predatory behaviour. We all know that people lie, but think instinctively that we know when we’re being lied to. “These individuals almost short-circuit us in our ability to detect the danger signals until it’s too late,” Viding says. “The majority of us, if we get caught lying, look deeply uncomfortable. It’s not nice to get caught lying, we worry about our reputation, it’s embarrassing. But these individuals are not embarrassed when they’re caught lying. This has not been formally tested, but one might hypothesise that they take people in much more readily, precisely because they display these characteristics of extreme confidence and do not seem nervous.” She cites a 2019 paper in the Journal of Personality Disorders which developed the idea that behaviours which don’t normally go together in the human population – for example, absolute confidence and total untruth – tend to go together in Dark Personalities. This, Viding says, is why these people “can often do a lot of damage before anyone catches them”.

This causes much more havoc outside prisons than it does in them. While Mitchell says she stays out of politics, her tactics, once you see them assembled, are strikingly visible on the world stage. Indeed, the first time I read the phrase “dark triad” was when Donald Trump got elected the first time around.

The idea of a “pathocracy”, a democracy of normal people taken over by psychopaths, was conceived by an obscure Polish psychologist, Andrew Lobaczewski, who had lived under both the Nazis and then Soviet-era communists. His ideas never landed, because “the psychology publishers thought it was too political, and the political publishers thought it was too psychological,” according to editor and blogger Harrison Koehli. It’s unfashionable to the point of being taboo in psychiatry and psychology now to ascribe personality disorders to public figures. “One of the perils of bringing psychology into politics is that it’s very easy for anyone with any given political perspective to look at their political enemies or rivals and say: ‘OK, well, they’re all psychopaths,’” says Koehli. There’s also the Goldwater Rule, which established as a psychiatric principle that professionals are not allowed to diagnose public figures they haven’t had clinical contact with or met (this was after 1,189 psychiatrists declared Barry Goldwater unfit to be president in the 1964 election). Viding, however, finds the fixation with diagnosis perhaps irrelevant in this context. “I always find the obsession with diagnosing these people interesting. You don’t need to diagnose them, there are a set of personality traits, and you can recognise individuals with those traits. If someone’s in political power, you can see those exemplified in behaviour, and most people are perfectly capable of making an assessment of what that signifies.”

Brazen lying in public life is a tactic Lobaczewski recognised – he called it the “reversive blockade”. Koehli describes it as: “When you tell a lie convincingly and it’s such an absurd lie, most people’s automatic reaction is that they can’t comprehend a lie told on that scale, so they try to find the ‘golden mean’ between the statement and the reality. But that, Lobaczewski says, is the intention of the big lie. They know it will sow confusion.” The impact on the population over which a dark personality presides is huge: some will try and find that golden mean; others will remain steadfast in calling it a lie and fall out with the first lot; others will try to adjust their own reality to make the lie true; while others will become inured to the new normal – that we just all lie now.

On an interpersonal level, this brazenness is even more head-spinning. Often both predator and victim know it’s a lie, or the predator is accusing the victim of exactly the thing he or she just did, or the lie has been expressed using the victim’s own language. Reverse attribution is so familiar in the domestic-abuse sphere that it has its own acronym – Darvo, for deny, attack, reverse victim and offender – yet it still absolutely fogs the victims, who feel their credibility is permanently in doubt. In the workplace, the effects are also devastating, because there tend to be spectators who themselves have a decisive impact on the outcome. As Mitchell says about one of her interviewees who worked in HR: “People were genuinely convinced the dark personality was the victim and the victim was the dark personality. It destroyed the life of the victim, even though they had an excellent professional track record.”

The reality is that the higher the levels of these traits, the wider the harm caused. Mitchell describes one of her research participants, “The head of a large Catholic diocese, in charge of child sex abuse. She had a horrible job, right? Incredible, impeccable credentials, CEO of several children’s organisations. She’d go to the Holy See and say, ‘Look, this person has been abusing children’ and they’d go: ‘Really? But he’s such a nice guy.’”

In the non-criminal, non-violent space of endless persecution – as might happen in a workplace – there are layers of disbelief. People can’t fathom that the Dark Personality is dark, they can’t believe that anyone would want to be deliberately harmful, they can’t process that harm was caused at all. It was bracing to hear Mitchell describe workplace suicides as an issue that partly spurred her research, since it is completely forbidden, in the mental health world, to ascribe a person’s suicide to anyone else’s behaviour. Yet a landmark ruling in France did exactly that in 2019, and found “torment” in the workplace, linked to a number of executives, had created the culture at France Télécom in which 19 employees took their own lives, 12 attempted suicide, and eight suffered from serious depression, between 2006 and 2009. Jane Monckton-Smith, professor of public protection at the University of Gloucestershire, has said in the past that, if we included provoked suicides, domestic homicide statistics could be multiplied “five, six or seven times”.

In Hare’s study of Pinochet’s lieutenants, which spanned 20 years and was written up in 2022, “when they looked at individuals who were commanding officers, this top brass had really high levels of psychopathic features, particularly the lack of empathy for others,” says Viding.

Mitchell delivers her conclusion with businesslike bluntness: “These are completely boundary-less, dangerous people with very different brains – it’s like the difference between a domestic cat and a wild cat. Millions and millions of people have been hurt because we haven’t known the red flags, so we have to put them out there and then teach people to be discerning.” Viding, in different terms, and by a different route, has the same conclusion. “As I’ve done this research for 20-plus years now, I have increasingly started to think we really need to understand more about how we can inoculate people against being victimised. Because based on the literature, and what little I know about evolutionary and cross-cultural psychology, we are very unlikely to weed these traits out.”


Climate Emergency

 By Wilbur Dawbarn of Private Eye



Upcoming El Niño 4 times hotter

Hat tip to Hal


. : “.. The strongest ..was 8 to 11 zettajoules ..this El Niño could reach .. 38 zettajoules .. 4 times the ..heat content.. The impacts.. catastrophic.. We are in .” www.facebook.com/share/p/1DWo...

2027 could reach or exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.





Ever faster mass loss in mountain glaciers

 From Stefan Rahmstorf


Mountain glaciers are losing mass increasingly fast world-wide over the past 75 years in response to . This and permafrost thawing can destabilize mountain sides and cause glacial collapse and flash floods. Graph: World Glacier Monitoring Service wgms.ch/global-glaci...



 

The evidence is unequivocal:  the world is getting hotter, and it's accelerating.

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Deforestation is 3rd largest source of emissions

Vegetarian/vegan food is much less environmentally damaging than meat.

From Elena Sgarbossa

A vegan burger uses less than 10% land in its production than production of a beef burger does.


Which means that less forest is cleared.  And if tropical deforestation was a country, its emissions would be behind only China and the USA.  


Moreover, to the emissions produced by land clearing, you have to add in the methane directly produced by beef and mutton.  The rise in atmospheric methane is responsible for 1/3rd of the rise in global temperatures since 1850-1900.  The biggest step you can take to personally help cut emissions and global temperatures is to give up meat and milk.