Tuesday, April 21, 2026

How far on a dollar?

 How far can you go on one dollar in Australia in a petrol car or an EV?  From Elitre.com.au.




How it works

The average petrol/diesel car (sales-weighted) uses 7.3 L/100km. Fuel currently costs 273.5¢/L, so $1 buys 0.37 L — enough to drive 5.0 km.

The average EV (sales-weighted) uses 15.6 kWh/100km. Smart charging with Amber Electric currently costs 15.5¢/kWh, so $1 buys 6.45 kWh — enough to drive 41.2 km.

This means that an EV could travel 8.3× further on just $1 of energy.

Have we underestimated the EV distance?

Amber has contacted the author to report that their SmartShift customers with battery and solar averaged 4.0¢/kWh during the six months to the end of March 2026. At that rate, $1 of electricity would take the average EV 159.8 km — 3.9× further than our estimate, or 32.0× as far as the average conventional vehicle.

I mostly drive around the regional city I live in.  Every once in a while, I drive into the big smoke, which is a 350 km round trip, which would be about the range of the BYD ATTO 1 which I would buy if I had the money.  For 95% of the time, I drive less than 10 k's a day, except occasionally.  My rooftop panels would be enough to charge my ATTO 1 (if I had one)  for all usage except the occasional return trip to the city.  The fast charger in the city I would use would cost 60 cents/kWh.  Assume I charge to 50% (15 kWh).  That would cost me $9.  This would be the total quarterly cost of "filling my car".   In addition, I pay $800 a year for servicing my Suzuki Swift.  EVs hardly need servicing--no radiator, no fan-belt, no oil pump, no distributor, no air filter .....  So I would expect servicing costs to be negligible--rotate the tyres, and refill the windscreen washer. 

Reminder:  in Australia, the BYD ATTO 1 costs the same (sticker price) as a petrol Suzuki Swift, and is the same-sized car with comparable performance.  My "fuel" costs would be $9.  My current costs are $120 per quarter.  My maintenance costs would be tiny, compared with $200/quarter.  

This is the tipping point.  Yes, there still aren't enough fast chargers, but if you want to see how many there now are, look on Plugshare.

UK EVs now cheaper than petrol cars

 From The Guardian

The price of new battery electric cars has fallen below petrol cars in the UK for the first time, according to the car sales website Autotrader, in a significant milestone in Britain’s transition away from fossil fuels.

The average price of a new electric car listed on the website was £42,620, compared with £43,405 for a new petrol model – making the former £785 cheaper based on advertised prices after discounts.

The higher upfront cost of electric vehicles has long been one of the big sticking points preventing some drivers from switching away from cars with polluting petrol and diesel engines towards those with battery motors, which do not emit carbon dioxide directly. Total running costs for electric cars have been lower for some time.

UK battery electric car sales accounted for 22% of new car sales in the first three months of the year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a lobby group.

Prices in the UK have been pushed down by the electric car grant brought in last summer, offering up to £3,750 off some models. Carmakers have also been under intense pressure to drop prices to meet electric car targets, known as the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and from an influx of Chinese competitors that have been able to undercut traditional brands.

Autotrader is the UK’s biggest automotive marketplace, although it does not cover all transactions across the country. The data suggests that the UK has reached a pivotal moment for decarbonising its road transport, as a cheaper upfront cost and significantly lower running costs combine to make electric cars increasingly attractive to buyers.

Bex Kennett, the head of new car at Autotrader, said: " ...carmakers had been forced into historically high levels of discounting earlier this year” as they tried to increase electric sales. However, their efforts appear to have been aided by the war in Iran, which has caused a rise in petrol and diesel prices. Car sales platforms across Europe have reported large increases in inquiries for electric cars from consumers keen to cut their energy costs.

Gurjeet Grewal, the chief executive of Octopus Electric Vehicles, the car division of the energy company, said the term milestone “gets thrown around a lot, but this really is one. For the first time, EVs are cheaper than petrol cars on upfront cost – removing one of the biggest barriers to switching.

“They’ve long been cheaper to run, and now they’re cheaper to buy, too. Add in growing competition and more choice, and it’s clear the direction of travel: electric is the obvious option for drivers.”

However, the transition to electric cars in the UK still faces some barriers. Households across the country who do not have driveways are reliant on the public charging network, which remains patchy in some areas.


Given the strategic risks revealed by the Iranian war, the government should regard the EV subsidies as money well spent. 

In Australia, the BYD ATTO 1, shown below, is comparable in size and performance to the petrol Suzuki Swift, and is roughly the same price (AUD $24,000, which includes a 10% sales tax), without subsidies.  An A$3,000 subsidy for EVs costing less than $30,000 would sharply accelerate EV sales in Australia, as it is in the UK.


The BYD ATTO 1, Australia's cheapest EV.


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Renewables met 100% of global demand in 2025

 From Renew Economy


Record amounts of new solar and wind generation capacity met 99 per cent of global electricity demand growth in 2025, new data shows, as the rise and rise of big batteries helps transform solar into a “round-the-clock resource” – with Australia leading the charge.

According to the Global Electricity Review 2026 from energy think tank Ember, renewable power generation increased by 887 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025, outpacing electricity demand growth of 849 TWh for the year.

Solar – as noted above – was the big star of the year, with new PV generation meeting 75 per cent of the net increase in global power demand, growing by a record 636 TWh in 2025 to reach 2,778 TWh in 2025, a 30 per cent jump on 2024.

The increase in global solar capacity [output] was 18 times as large as that of gas (+36 TWh), which was the only fossil power source that grew in 2025, Ember says.

A separate report, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Energy Review says the global solar juggernaut contributed the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology in 2025, and helped renewables outpace coal growth for the first time. 

In the context of the current Middle East conflict, Ember notes that the solar generation added in 2025 would be sufficient to displace gas-fired electricity equivalent to all LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz in the same year, estimated at 550 TWh. 


Global solar generating capacity [output] has been doubling roughly every three years, Ember says, rising from 1,333 TWh in 2022 and overtaking wind power for the first time globally in 2025. Both solar and wind are expected to overtake nuclear in 2026.

Wind energy, too, had a bumper year according to a separate Ember report, which shows that the global industry installed a record-smashing 165 gigawatts (GW) – or 205 TWh – in 2025, marking the highest ever level of new installations for the wind power industry.

Australia followed the global wind trend, charting 43 per cent year-on-year growth with 1,200 new wind projects coming online in 2025, compared to 835 in 2024 – bringing the total number of wind projects by the end of 2025 to 13,515. 

“Australia recorded a significant increase in wind generation … due to stronger wind conditions and major new wind farms coming online, such as the 412 MW Goyder South wind farm and the 923 MW MacIntyre Wind Farm, Australia’s largest-ever wind farm project,” the report says. 

But Ember notes that fewer projects achieving final investment decision and approval for the coming years, due to planning delays, inflation and community opposition, points to a drop in the future pipeline.

In combination, wind and solar now contribute more than half of all global renewable generation and, combined with nuclear (8.9%) and hydro, low-carbon sources reached 42.6 per cent of total electricity generation in 2025, up 9.1 percentage points from 33.5% in 2015. 

On the other side of the coin, the share of fossil generation fell to 57.4 per cent, down from 66.5 per cent in 2015. This was the first year since 2020 without an increase in electricity generation from fossil fuels and only the fifth year without a rise this century.

For storage, 2025 was also a landmark year, in which battery economics reached a turning point, with battery pack prices for stationary storage falling to a record low of $US70/kWh – down 45 per cent on 2024 – allowing dispatchable solar with batteries to be delivered for around $76/MWh.

“This makes it cheaper and faster to build than a new gas power plant, particularly in countries reliant on expensive LNG imports,” the report says. 


Globally, battery storage capacity additions jumped by 46 per cent from 2024 to an estimated 247 GWh, according to Ember – enough to shift around 14 per cent of global solar generation from daytime to other hours.


According to the IEA, battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025, with the roughly 110 GW of new capacity added over the course of the year beating the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas.

“Battery storage is the fastest growing power technology today,” the IEA says.

“Installed capacity is now eleven times higher than in 2021. Lithium‑iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now account for around 90% of deployments; while less energy‑dense than rival chemistries commonly used in EVs, LFP batteries are typically cheaper and better suited to more frequent cycling. Just five years ago, the market share of LFP batteries in deployments was well below 50%.”

Ember marks 2025 as the year that batteries are “finally moving into the mainstream” to help shift solar power beyond daylight hours and unlock the next phase of solar expansion.

“Batteries have outgrown their initial niche role as a grid stability service and are now core infrastructure designed to store excess daytime electricity and release it in the evening and at night,” the Ember report says.

In this regard, Ember says Australia is leading the world, as one of two countries alongside Chile that could shift more than 50% of the new solar capacity added in 2025 with new battery capacity, transforming PV generation from a daytime solution to “a nearly round-the-clock resource” and the most affordable pathway to meet rapidly rising electricity demand.


“Australia and Chile stand out for adding relatively small amounts of battery capacity in absolute terms, 9 GWh and 4 GWh respectively, but large enough relative to their solar growth to make a material difference,” the report says. 

“Australia shows how batteries can quickly reshape power markets once deployed at scale. In Q4-2025, during the high-value evening peak hours (18:00-20:00) in the National Electricity Market, batteries set prices 36% of the time – doubling from 18% in Q4-2024, displacing gas and hydro as price setters.

So much for renewables leading to higher prices!

“This led to significantly lower price volatility compared with Q4-2024, with average spot prices of around $100 per MWh during 18:00-20:00, less than half of the Q4-2024 average spot prices during these hours. This helped bring overall prices lower, with wholesale prices averaging $50/MWh, a $39/MWh (-44%) reduction from Q4 2024.

These dynamics, says Ember, show batteries are already delivering tangible system benefits by reducing reliance on expensive fossil generation and stabilising prices at the most critical times of day.

“We have firmly entered the era of clean growth,” says Ember managing director Aditya Lolla.

“Clean energy is rapidly redefining the foundation of energy security in a volatile world. It is already helping countries reduce exposure to fossil fuel imports and costs while meeting rising electricity demand.”


 It's clear that emissions from electricity (~30% of total emissions) have peaked.  It's now obvious to everybody, except those who get paid not to see the truth, that reliance on oil and gas is an economic and a strategic risk.  EV sales have risen 50%, as consumers have seen the light, but it must also be self-evident to all in government that it would be far less risky to permanently uncouple economies from oil.  So it is likely that emissions from land transport (~18% of emissions) will peak soon, as EV sales explode.  And governments will force their electricity producers to install more solar and batteries and less gas, to reduce reliance on LNG shipped through the straits of Hormuz.

Also, the oil crisis will most likely lead to a recession, because of a combination of physical constraints on output (for example, Europe has just 6 weeks of aviation fuel left), on confidence (consumer and business) and on incomes (a jump in inflation.)  I lived through the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, both of which led to deep recessions and surging inflation, and this crisis is bigger than those two. In fact, the oil supply shock is bigger than those two combined.  And the consequent fall in oil demand will only be partially replaced as economies recover.  

Emissions have peaked.  Unambiguously good news.

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Solar and wind replacing the Hormuz gap

 From This is Not Cool




This seems like Good news.

Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air:

Global power generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month since the start of the Hormuz closure, with the fall in gas-fired generation offset by large increases in solar and wind power, rather than coal.

The power generation dataset prepared for this analysis covers countries that disclose near-real-time data. The dataset covers 87% of global coal power generation and over 60% of gas-fired power generation.

Total power generation from fossil fuels in countries with near-real-time data fell 1% year-on-year, with coal-fired generation flat and gas-fired generation falling 4%. The dataset covers the world’s largest power markets: China, the U.S., the EU, and India, among others.

Seaborne coal transport volumes fell 3%, to the lowest levels since 2021. The data contradicts widespread expectations that coal power generation would rise in response to the crisis.


This is the first oil crisis where we *have* alternatives.  We can replace imported gas with wind, solar and storage.  We can replace petrol and diesel vehicles with EVs.  What's more, *everybody* knows it.  Governments, companies, individuals.  

Global emissions have peaked.  Oil demand has plunged, and only some of that demand is coming back, and then only in the short term.  How ironic that this is thanks to Trump.

So yes, emissions will rise again, but the next peak will be lower than this one.

(Caveat:  So-called "AI" data centres.)