Another big jump in bond yields

 Another big jump in US bond yields overnight (Ozzie time).    The sell-off continues.

10-years back to 2002 levels, 30-years to 2004 (lower chart)

Very not good.

US bond sell-off intensifies

Bonds had a brief rally (i.e., yields fell) when the Fed raised the fed funds rate (the Central Bank discount rate).  The fear in the markets had been that the Fed was going to become Trump's creature and go soft on inflation.  The rise in the fed funds rate reduced that fear, and long-dated bond yields fell.  That lasted just 2 days, and yields have now moved to new highs.  Why?  The same reasons as before.  In particular, it's clear that the Iran war is not over, inflation is higher than targets, and recent data suggest that world economies are strengthening, meaning that there will be further rises in C.B. discount rates.  

Tightening credit tends to cause economic slowdowns.  And right now, the US economy is propped up by spending on AI, which is funded by venture capital and private credit, both of which rely on loose general credit markets.   This developing credit crunch is not good for shares or the economy.  Take care out there, people.

Access to the president

 By Bill  Bramhall

How robots will actually kill us

 From Smooth Dunk

Fear + ignorance = hate

 I don't know who drew this.  If you do, drop me a line on my Mastodon or Bluesky accounts.

(ReformUK is a far-right UK party, which Elon Musk enthusiastically supports)

Bromance

By Michael de Adder 

Should we rely on negative-emissions technologies?

 Short answer: no.

From Dr Aaron Thierry

"The Integrated Assessment Models informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies. If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway"

(From UNEP)

Look how large negative emissions have to be to achieve net-zero by 2070 (never mind 2050!) on current pathways  — almost as large as positive emissions in 1980.  We should not rely on negative emissions to stop the climate catastrophe, because we almost certainly won't be able to achieve them.  To save ourselves, we must cut actual emissions.   Now.  Forget pie-in-the-sky schemes to offset emissions and start working on replacing fossil fuels in our economy.