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Saturday, October 24, 2026

Why I resist generative "AI"

 By Esther Weidauer

(Esther Weidauer is a former software developer and engineering manager, and is now studying for a psychology degree)

This article says what I have been thinking about "AI" much better than I can, and explains it really well.




I don’t make a secret out of how much I despise the current hype around generative “AI”. I avoid using it as much has possible, and I’ve been vocal about the reasons for years. But often I feel the need to have a collection of all my arguments in one place instead of dozens of posts scattered around social media. This article is that collection. I’ll go through all the major reasons why I oppose generative “AI”, respond to some popular claims about it that I often hear from its proponents, and I’ll provide sources for further reading along the way.

The sections are mostly independent from each other so feel free to skip around the table of contents and read only the ones you’re interested in.

I’ll not get too deep into the technical details as those aren’t really the focus here and I’d rather look at more high-level issues to keep this from becoming way longer than it already is, and to keep it accessible for people who aren’t tech experts themselves.

I’ll also put down my own cards here: I have professionally worked in software development for about 15 years, and got about 25 years of programming experience across several languages in total. I have worked a lot on search engines and have implemented my own neural networks occasionally. Currently I’m finishing up a degree in psychology and writing my thesis in statistics. Just so you know where I’m coming from here.

What is “AI” right now?

It’s often not very clear what people mean when they say “AI”, especially when they are somewhat knowledgeable in that field and are aware of some of its more specific terms, so I want to put out some terminology before moving on. For the purpose of this article and I think in most colloquial use by laypeople, “AI” refers to generative systems that produce text, images, or other media based on a text prompt as well as systems derived from them, e.g. “AI agents”.

As of 2026, the time of writing this, the term artificial intelligence has been kicking around for over half a century. Various and very different technologies have been labeled as such. Systems that implemented formal logic were the big bet in the 1950s and 60s. Following the “AI winter” period after those efforts proved a dead end so called “expert systems” were the hype of the 1980s. Right now, we’re seeing a big revival of the artificial neural network, a technology that was thought to be of limited use decades ago, but that turns out to be quite powerful when combined with absurd amounts of data and computing capacity that were previously impossible, or unfeasible to bring to task.

Neural networks are quite remarkable at adapting to statistical patterns in complex data sets. A well-known entry-level example is a relatively simple network that can recognize hand-written numeric digits with surprising accuracy, when trained with sufficient amounts of training data (a large sample of written digits that are already correctly labeled). Neural networks have a wide array of applications and can model a variety of real-world problems.

Large language models

Neural networks form the basis for what is now known as large language models (LLM), which is the core of the current “AI” hype, more specifically the generative pre-trained transformer (that’s the GPT in ChatGPT). LLMs are statistical models of human language. They encode probabilities of words appearing in sequence and given an input sequence of words, called the prompt, they can infer (predict) what words are likely to appear next. A simple version of this would be the predictive typing on a modern smartphone where as you type text, a short list of likely word suggestions is shown to speed up the process. You type “appo” and it’s likely that you mean to type “appointment” so the phone gives you a shortcut to do just that. The LLMs powering popular chatbots like ChatGPT or Claude are super-charged version of that, not just inferring based on a few previous keystrokes but on quite extensive prompts. However, they still only predict a very small amount of text at a time before they need to repeat the entire process, feeding the fresh output back onto the system along with the previous prompt.

There’s a popular misconception that an LLM “remembers” your chat history and the prompt is always just the most recent message you sent, but that’s not the case. The prompt is the entire conversation. It is fed into the LLM with every new chat message. Having the chat history in the prompt helps keep the model “on topic”, otherwise these things easily drift to something else. this has its limits though. LLMs can only receive a prompt of a certain maximum length. This is known as the context window. Anything further back than the context window allows is no longer part of the prompt.

Agents

A few years into the development of commercial services based on LLMs, the latest and greatest right now are “AI agents”, systems that supposedly have, as the name suggests, agency, acting autonomously based on some initial task set by their user. Or at least that’s how the sales pitch goes. While a plain chat interface to an LLM might be able to respond to a user’s questions or perform things like summarizing text, an “agent” is supposed to execute more complex tasks like “book a trip to Berlin next weekend along with a hotel room for two adults”.

This sounds like a fundamentally new and different technology compared to just LLMs, but it isn’t. An agent is mostly just a program that repeatedly prompts an LLM and based on its output, executes various functions that are available to it, often called tools. Tools could be things like executing a web search, making a payment using a Paypal account, sending an email, etc. The “AI” part of it is still an LLM, mostly the same one you could also interact with directly via a chat interface.

Other forms of machine learning

Machine learning is a wider term that includes LLMs and other uses of neural networks, but also more generally any statistical model that can make predictions about something. Strictly speaking even a simple linear regression model, a very basic principle in statistics, can be seen as a form of machine learning as the regression model “learns” the correlation between variables and can then make predictions that fit those correlations.

Weather forecasts, image classification (the thing that finds pictures of your cat in your phone’s camera roll), street traffic modeling, power grid management, and many more applications fall under this very wide umbrella.

I believe it’s important to differentiate between the colloquially used “AI”, meaning generative systems, and other specific applications of machine learning. It’s generative “AI” that I’m going to focus on in this article and that I think needs to be resisted.

Claims

“AI is here to stay”

OK. So is heroin. And I wouldn’t recommend that to anyone either.

But seriously, this really isn’t an argument for or against anything. No technology fully vanishes again once it has been developed. That doesn’t mean though that it remains widely adopted, nor that it’s even a net good.

I don’t expect LLMs to disappear and I don’t think anyone who’s serious about this really believes that either. But the current boom is largely fueled by subsidized costs. End users don’t pay anywhere near the real cost of operating the big popular chatbots. The cost is covered by investor capital and that does run out eventually. And once the real cost will bear down on the consumer, a lot of people will reevaluate whether this is all really worth it. We already see large companies restrict their employees’ use now that big LLM operators have switched to a “pay what you use” model.

Personally I think a lot of people who rely on LLMs a lot are in for a rough awakening once they have to pay the real price.

“It’s just a tool”

This is one of the favorite claims made by people who’d rather not think too much about how they participate in something destructive and there’s two problems with it:

No, it’s really not

An angle grinder is a tool. It’s use is entirely in your control, as long as you can provide it with electricity. But since it’s electricity requirements are well documented and not that complicated (220V AC at 50Hz for one I would get at my local hardware store), you’re not bound by anything in how you use your angle grinder. It’s also entirely agnostic whether you use it to build something or to cut a bike lock that’s not your own. And while it might break eventually, and its construction requires a complex supply chain, once it is made it’ll operate just fine for a long time.

The fire department is not a tool. This should be obvious. It’s clearly a service, provided by your municipality probably. It’s a complex web of materials, tools, processes, people, rules, and politics. It’s not something that gets built once and then just works. If you want someone to show up to your burning house and rescue you, a lot of things need to happen on a regular basis, many done by people.

For the continued operation of generative “AI” models, a complex web of materials and labor also needs to perform various tasks. It’s just less obvious because you don’t see the people making it work. You just see the input and output of the entire system. The labor and material realities are abstracted away, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Moderators need to work in order to keep the LLM from spewing child abuse material at you, someone needs to replace the constantly burning out GPUs in the datacenters, and someone needs to curate the new training data to keep the model up to date, just to name a few. This is not a tool. This is a service.

Tools don’t exist in a vacuum

Even if one is to accept the “It’s just a tool” claim, it doesn’t follow that using it widely (or at all) with little restrictions is fine. There are plenty of tools that we socially regulate, through laws or plain social conventions. If I hand you a hammer for driving some nails into a wall, I have a reasonable expectation that you won’t hit anyone in the head with it.

Tools also contain their own politics, sometimes explicitly, sometimes implicitly. Weapons for example are obviously designed to harm people, they very explicitly contain the politics of violence and war. A more implicit example could be the steam engine. It’s not just an invention that happened in a vacuum. Without the political and economical framework of the fossil fuel industry it can’t operate and would lose its entire reason for existing.

Pretending that a tool is somehow “neutral” is a very convenient tale to tell oneself, but it’s simply not true.

“But it’s so useful”

This one is closely related to the “It’s just a tool” claim and similar to that one, it needs to be evaluated in a wider context. Usefulness itself is not a sufficient criterion for whether something is good. Slavery and child labor are strictly speaking useful, but many societies have strict rules against those since they are also deeply exploitative. A steam locomotive is useful but we have mostly moved towards much more efficient and cleaner modes of propulsion for trains.

I don’t deny that LLMs are capable for certain use cases. A modern LLM can absolutely write a polite yet direct email to your landlord about how they should finally fix the central heating, or generate a boring but serviceable CV for a job application. LLMs can do much more than those very simple tasks even, but the more complex the task, the more likely there will be mistakes. And once you’re using it for something that you couldn’t do well yourself, you have no way of validating its output, rendering it very much not useful while still appearing as if it is.

“AI will solve …”

Whether it’s climate change, space travel, curing cancer, or some other flashy promise, somehow “AI” is supposed to solve it. Yet, several years into the generative “AI” hype, there’s little to show for.

This is a claim where it’s really important to make sure we’re talking about the same thing when we say “AI”, as laid out earlier. Specialized machine learning systems can be essential to various fields of research, but LLMs are simply not capable of producing new knowledge. They can only reproduce what’s in their training data. An LLM-based system, being a statistical model of its training data and therefore effectively a form of lossy compression, can by definition never solve any problem for which the training data or information otherwise available to the system doesn’t already contain the solution.

“You’re all just Luddites”

Well yes, I am, quite proudly so I might add. But I don’t think the person who uses that term as an insult and to discredit actually knows what a Luddite is.

The original Luddites were a worker movement in the 19th century that was concerned about the economic implications of applying certain technologies in their work. They were not opposed to all new technology, as the popular misconception goes. People who are not aware of the actual history of the Luddites often think the name refers to someone who rejects all modern technology by default. This is simply not true.

Luddism is experiencing a revival today especially among people who are often technology experts themselves, who use modern technology every day, who work in research and development, but who also examine technology critically. For further reading I recommend The Mechanic And The Luddite by Jathan Sadowski.

“LLMs are conscious”

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and this is a really extraordinary one. So far there is zero evidence towards this though. All we have are some people claiming that the text generator is somehow a real person now, usually people who worked at one of the major companies producing these systems and who benefit from painting their work as fantastical and revolutionary.

It is very easy for humans to anthropomorphize things that simulate human behavior, even when the simulation is crude. This is known as the ELIZA effect, named after a chatbot developed in 1966 that fooled several users into thinking it was intelligent.

Every first-year computer science student should know that computers that are Turing-complete can only ever do what a Turing machine can do, actually less because the theoretical Turing Machine has infinite memory which real computers obviously don’t. Making the computer bigger doesn’t magically let it surpass those restrictions. It only lets it do more of the same and do it faster.

We don’t even really know what consciousness is, other than gesturing at ourselves and going “You know, like that!”. What we do know is that the human mind is not a set of computer instructions. Neither is it a disembodied entity that’s just piloting a body. We are embodied beings and our bodies are an integral part of who we are.

Frankly to me the claim that an LLMs could even be anywhere near human consciousness is obscene and it reveals more about what the person making the claim thinks about people than it does about LLMs.

Harms

Environmental

Operating a state-of-the-art LLM for a large user base requires an enormous amount of energy. According to a report from MIT Technology Review, global electricity use just for “AI” purposes could reach up to 326 TWh per year in 2028. That is more than the entire electricity consumption of the United Kingdom in 2025, not just data-centers in the UK, but everything from private homes to industry.

A lot of this electricity is coming from burning fossil fuels, often from gas generators specifically constructed to power new “AI” data-centers, leading to extremely high emissions.

I would argue that anyone who claims to care about preventing climate change getting worse than it already is, cannot ignore this ridiculous cost of LLMs. Especially when using them for tasks that could be accomplished without them, it’s like driving an SUV to a coffee shop that’s actually comfortably in walking distance.

Psychological

The psychological damages caused by LLM use, sometimes even in the short time, are well documented by now, even by organisations operating or investing in these systems. In 2025 Microsoft themselves published a study about the cognitive impact.

Since then there have been more publications about the negative effects on personal relationships, about how LLM users consistently under-perform at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels, and even deaths related to LLM use.

There’s even the concept of a “cognitive virus”, where “AI” use spreads among people who become increasingly dependent on it.

This is of course anecdotal, but I have witnessed these effects myself among students at university. Over the past two years some of them have become unable and/or unwilling to answer any question without first running it through their LLM of choice, even becoming unable to work on things like their theses when they ran out of tokens on their LLM usage plans. Their intellectual abilities have become entirely dependent on an online service that they have to pay for. It was quite horrifying to observe.

Economic

Ever since LLMs became really popular, probably around 2024, there has been a truly staggering amount of investment in the build-out of this technology. The money tends to go into buying GPUs from Nvidia, building data-centers, and the electricity to run both.

Talk of an “AI bubble” started popping up around the same time as the amount of capital poured into these systems sky-rocketed. In 2025 Deutsche Bank issued a warning about it and since then it’s become clear how the financing of the industry is partly circular, as pointed out by Michael Burry, one of the guys who correctly predicted the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Recently we saw the bankruptcy of character.ai, the first big company in this industry to topple over. It remains to be seen, if this is the first domino of many to fall but the current money-burning can’t go on forever. And when some of these bills come due, along with the fact that so much of the current economy is exposed to this, I think the shock will be severe, like 2008 all over again and worse.

Another economic aspect is the effect that LLM use has in the workplace. Shopify’s CEO Tobias Lütke who first went all-in on “AI”, forcing employees to use LLMs, now complains about “slop grenades”: generated output that hasn’t been properly reviewed and ends up creating more work for other employees. I admit that there’s some amount of schadenfreude in this one for personal reasons.

Epistemological

Epistemology: the philosophy of knowledge

LLMs necessarily produce mistakes. Don’t take it from me, take it from OpenAI. They fundamentally generate output that looks plausible, but isn’t necessarily correct. This is a major problem. When people use LLMs in fields that they don’t have expertise in, they lack the ability to verify the outputs. That in combination with the well-documented decline in cognitive abilities that the use of LLMs can incur, leads to an increasing risk of incorrect information that is trusted without validation.

We’re also at a point where LLMs actively destroy their own most important resource: genuine human-created training data, as OpenAI and Microsoft admit themselves. This leads to a feedback loop where future versions of these models are trained on information that was itself generated by an LLM, degrading the quality of the output even further.

I’m part of the generation that saw the internet become ubiquitous as we grew into adults. I know what it was like before, when researching anything meant spending hours and hours at a local library, waiting for weeks for a book to arrive only to then realize that it’s not the right one, and paying horrendous amounts for academic journals. The internet made so much of this so much better. I saw the greatest public collection of knowledge humanity ever had come into being, exemplified most of all by Wikipedia. When I was in my last years of school, we were all told by our teachers not to trust online sources, especially Wikipedia because “anyone can edit that”. Turns out that communal model of curating knowledge works remarkably well.

It’s ironic to see people in academia today who really should know better just trust LLM output that is proven to often contain mistakes without checking, copying hallucinated sources straight into their publications. Anything published after around 2024 that isn’t clearly labeled (and trustworthy) as being human-created will be tainted by this epistemological rot that necessarily happens when LLMs feed on their own output. If this is allowed to continue, the public collection of all human knowledge that we built over the first three decades of the Web, even with all it’s caveats of copyright and DRM schemes, is going to become a shadow of its former self.

We had the modern Library of Alexandria, and we’re burning it down again right now.

Politics

Inherently backwards

Since LLMs only reproduce information that’s contained in their training data, although sometimes in random and incorrect permutations, they necessarily reinforce existing biases and sentiments. This is strictly a consequence of how they work.

Due to their nature as statistical models, LLMs also bias towards the mainstream view on any topic. After all what makes some text more likely to appear in the output for a given prompt is how often similar text was in proximity of text resembling that prompt in the training data. However the mainstream view on something can often be wrong. Popular misconceptions are, well, popular.

Thumbs on the scale

Companies that operate LLMs, like OpenAI and Anthropic, apply content policies to their products. This might seem reasonable at first glance. After all, they probably don’t want a machine dispensing tutorials on how to make explosives at home, if not for safety reasons, at the very least because of liability concerns.

However, they also exclude topics that are perfectly legal and not at all morally objectionable to read or write about. Let me tell an anecdote about this:

During a psychoanalysis seminar during my psychology degree we were assigned a text by Rolf Pohl, “Vom Liebhaber zum Lustmörder” (“From Lover to Sex Killer”), that’s about sexually motivated aggressive behavior in men. A large section of the text is about sexual violence committed by soldiers against civilians during war. I was in a group of three students and one hadn’t actually read the text but only a ChatGPT summary. They had no idea about this important part of the text. The LLM had simply not included it in the summary. And of course since they hadn’t read the text themselves, they had no way of knowing about this omission.

In another seminar a similar thing happened where a discussion about the psychology of addiction and specifically alcoholism was left out of a summary, completely changing the meaning of the assigned reading and leaving the student who had only read the summary struggling to participate in the discussion.

Neither of these is a technical failure of the LLM itself. Even with the tendency to hallucinate content and produce factual errors, these mistakes are way more significant than the ones LLMs usually make. These are an effect of the policies put in place by the operators of the models. With more and more people relying on LLMs for information, this concentrates a worrying amount of power over our collective access to knowledge in the hands of a few individuals who have the means of training very big LLMs and who are not beholden to any democratic oversight.

If you ask me, this is downright dystopian.

Fascism

The current strain of “AI” is a right wing project, even a fascist one.

I know this is probably a point where I lose a lot of readers. There’s a reason why I put it this far down in the article. Many people tune out when the word “fascism” is mentioned. But I’m serious about this.

Luckily other people have already done a much better job at writing about this than I ever could. So if you want to know why “AI” contains extreme right-wing tendencies, I’m going to direct you to them:

And if you’re up for a longer read:

I really do encourage you to read some of these though. The removal of human accountability, the disempowering of workers, the inherent conservatism, the centralization and control of knowledge, the fetishization of technology and “progress” for their own sake, all of those and more are facets of modern fascism and I believe it’s important to call them out as such.

The weird

Now that I probably already lost a bunch of readers during the part about fascism, I’ll close by going a little into just how weird the people are who run the current “AI” hype.

He showed me his bedroom, which was in the office; many Cluely staffers also lived there. Everything was gray, although there wasn’t much. “I’m a big believer in minimalism,” he said. “Actually, no, I’m not. Not at all. I just don’t really care about interior decoration.” He had a chest of drawers, entirely empty except for a lint roller, pens, and, in one corner, a pink vibrator. “It’s for girls, you know,” said Roy. “I used to use this one on my ex.”

This is from an astonishing piece of reporting by Sam Kriss about an “AI” company called Cluely, it’s CEO Roy, and the wider culture of “AI” boosters in the Bay Area. These are people who try to eliminate human thinking and who are at this point unable to do anything without piping it through an LLM first. They never had to grow up, so they didn’t, and now they need a robot to fill in for their mum.

Have you heard of Roko’s Basilisk? It’s a twisted version of another much older thought experiment called Pascal’s Wager which attempts to argue for following Christian doctrine because the risk of eternal damnation in case a vengeful God actually exists outweighs the benefit of an easier but sinful life. Roko’s Basilisk assumes a future all-powerful AI that retroactively punishes people who didn’t help to bring it into existence by creating simulations of them and torturing those virtual people for all eternity.

I believe this kind of pseudo philosophy says more about the people constructing these scenarios than anything else. Punishing non-believers is what they would do, if they were an all-powerful god. And since they see themselves as perfectly rational, a superhuman AI would obviously do the same. It’s ridiculous and, if these people didn’t control so much money, nobody would really entertain this nonsense.

Or what about Longtermism, a school of thought that argues that future potential beings, sometimes including artificial intelligences, will outnumber the current human population. Therefore the concerns of people alive today are irrelevant and all resources should be used to bring those vast numbers of future beings into existence, for example by colonizing other planets. That’s a very convenient argument to make when you’re e.g. running a rocket company and want to ignore things like climate protection regulation.

If you want know more about the messed up ideas, I recommend “The TESCREAL Bundle” by Timnit Gebru and Émile P. Torres. Longtermism is just the L in that acronym, there’s so much more nonsense in there and much of it is super popular in the current “AI” industry.

I want to leave you with another excellent piece of writing that examines the “AI” hype through a theological lens, as people who used to be atheists trying to create a new god in order lend divine authority to their ideas: Making God by Emily Gorcenski.

I want you to think about whether these are the people who should control our access to knowledge, determine who gets to have their voice heard in the future, and allocate the limited resources we have on our planet.

Personally I think these people are dangerous and need to be stopped.

Friday, October 23, 2026

The take-off in African solar

 From EMBER.


Record solar capacity of 17 GW will be installed in Africa in 2026, up 45% year-on-year

Chinese exports of solar panels to Africa surged in the 12 months to June 2026, to levels similar to each of the Middle East and Latin America. This report introduces a new methodology, showing around 73% of Chinese imports globally have been installed, with an average six-month delay. This makes it possible to estimate full-year 2026 installations already. This shows 17 GW of solar was installed in 2026, equal to around 100,000 solar panels every day. That is a 45% rise year-on-year; 2025 rose by 51% and 2024 by 25%.

This is happening everywhere: 36 out of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to install record amounts of solar in 2026 

19 countries have seen year-on-year growth of over 100%, including 544% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 282% in Zimbabwe, 176% in Egypt and 117% in Zambia. Solar growth used to be dominated by South Africa, but its share of African installations in 2026 will be below 20% for the first time since 2019, as other countries surge. Solar is now the single biggest addition to grid capacity in many African countries - Senegal will add solar capacity from 2023 to 2026 equivalent to almost 80% of its entire 2023 grid capacity, with DRC and Kenya adding more than half. 

2026 new solar generation can meet Africa’s historic electricity demand growth

2026’s installations will generate around 23 TWh a year - 2.3% of Africa’s electricity generation, above the 2.2% average annual demand growth of 2014 to 2024. There are ten countries where 2026’s new solar will add more than 10% to annual grid electricity generation - Sierra Leone (97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%), DRC (14%), Comoros (14%), Namibia (12%), Liberia (12%), Chad (11%), Lesotho (10%). Together these countries are home to 190 million people.

Half of the estimated rise in solar is missing from official statistics - because national reporting is so poor 

Ember’s 2025 solar growth estimate is twice that of international statistics - 12.0 GW in 2025, compared with 6.2 GW from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and 4.6 GW from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Ember forecasts annual installations in 2026 will rise another 45%, potentially increasing this gap further. However, international reporting can only be as good as national reporting, and that barely exists in many countries. We could only find official reporting for national solar capacity for 36 out of 54 countries; only 14 of those were for 2025, and even those 14 countries seem to underestimate the rise in solar. Only three countries - South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania - publish some solar data monthly or quarterly.  

Three-quarters of Africa’s solar growth is likely from distributed solar - and that is exactly what’s difficult to measure

Distributed solar, which is small-scale, customer-side solar installed mostly on rooftops - makes up most of Africa’s solar growth, and it’s the hardest type to measure. Ember estimates that 75% (20 GW of 26 GW) of the total solar capacity added between 2023 and 2025 is distributed solar. That’s because only a quarter of new solar can be explained by utility-scale and off-grid solar - utility-scale solar is fairly well-documented and visible through government procurement projects, and although off-grid solar is growing fast, its scale would still be very small in context of the gap. This is the case even in countries with large utility-scale solar projects - in Egypt, for example, still 43% of its solar growth is estimated to be distributed. There are just 12 countries that report an official or semi-official distributed solar figure, yet those still underestimate the growth. The lack of visibility on distributed solar is not unique to Africa, but a combination of factors makes it worse. A surge in companies, registries and licences show the solar rise is real.

Will solar actually increase electricity demand in Africa? 

Electricity demand growth in Africa is low. It averaged 2.2% per year from 2014 to 2024, which is lower even than the global rate of 2.6%. Solar has helped Pakistan to leapfrog to higher electricity demand growth, after years of paltry growth. In Pakistan, total electricity demand rose by 21% in just two years from 2023 to 2025, met entirely by the newly installed distributed solar generation. But what’s more, Ember’s research showed this solar actually helped Pakistan’s electricity demand to rise - creating huge societal benefits. Distributed solar was faster: in just two years, 27 GW of distributed solar was installed, equivalent to the capacity of all operating coal, gas and oil plants ever built in Pakistan. Distributed solar was cheaper – residential solar with a medium battery produces electricity at around PKR 20 per kWh, half the PKR 40 cost of grid electricity - air conditioning at grid prices is just unaffordable for many. Distributed solar was better – it eliminated daytime loadshedding, avoided more than $12 billion USD in oil and gas imports by February 2026, reduced CO2 and air pollution and saved transmission and distribution losses. Like in Pakistan, many African countries have low electricity demand because of low electricity supply. Solar can help to drive the electricity demand growth that African countries need. 


Solar is up-ending Africa’s diesel market, saving billions in diesel imports

 The US-Iran conflict and the removal of subsidies in some countries, including Nigeria and Egypt, have led to a sharp rise in retail diesel prices. The economics before were compelling; now they are urgent. Diesel generators are commonplace across the many countries in Africa which face unreliable electricity supply. A 2022 report from WoodMac showed at least 17 African countries have more distributed diesel generator capacity than they do grid-connected power-generation capacity. Solar is undoubtedly being installed by people who own a diesel generator, to save money buying diesel. There is also a large amount of off-grid diesel that will be replaced with solar. Irrigation might be the biggest. In Pakistan, there is already an estimated 7 GW of solar tube wells providing irrigation - Morocco already had 40,000 solar irrigation pumps by 2020, and Egypt likely has a lot more. The use of solar to replace diesel generation at smaller, rich off-grid houses or tourist hotels is likely to have grown rapidly. Also, one company alone in Nigeria added 60 MW of solar to power phone masts. This reduces imports - the import cost of a Chinese solar panel is a fraction of what the import cost of diesel would be for diesel generators. Generating the same electricity from a diesel generator as from a solar panel would cost as much in diesel, every three months, as the solar panel itself. Yet solar panels last for 30 years or more, saving significant costs on constant diesel top-ups. The Chinese solar panel exports into Africa in the 12 months to June 2026 cost $2.4 billion USD, according to the Chinese customs agency; at $1.40 USD per litre of diesel, generating the same amount of electricity as those imported solar panels would need $2.4 billion USD of diesel every three months. So, in the hypothetical extreme scenario that all solar is displacing diesel generators, Chinese solar panels would save $2.4 billion USD on imports every three months, having paid for themselves in the first three months.






Economic growth in Africa has long been constrained by poor electricity grids.  Cheap solar panels and batteries are allowing people and businesses to bypass the grid and get electricity.  And unlike high-latitude countries (e.g., Denmark or Canada) the variation between high solar season and low is relatively small (often the "low" season is the rainy season, which is usually summer).  This very rapid expansion in electricity supply will lead to higher economic growth.  This doesn't just apply to Africa, but to any developing country in the sunbelt, such as Pakistan.  


Solar Europe's biggest electricity source ....

 .... in summer.

From Electrek


Solar power reached a new milestone across Europe last month [June 2026], generating a record 52 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity and supplying 25% of all electricity used in the European Union in June 2026, according to new analysis from energy think tank Ember.

That’s the first time solar has provided a quarter of the EU’s monthly electricity. It also made solar the bloc’s largest source of electricity for the month, ahead of nuclear (21%), gas (15%), wind (14%), hydro (12%), and coal (8%).




It’s only the third time solar has topped all other power sources in the EU, following June 2025 and May 2026. But this time, it set a new record, beating May’s previous high of 47 TWh and a 23% share of electricity generation.

“Solar’s rise has been truly stratospheric, beating prediction after prediction,” said Ember senior analyst Chris Rosslowe. “In just a few years solar has gone from a small player to an essential part of Europe’s power system, as governments and citizens look for low-cost, quick-to-install domestic power sources.”

The record came as Europe experienced another month of intense summer heat. Higher temperatures boosted electricity demand for air conditioning and cooling, while solar panels generated large amounts of power during long, sunny days.

That strong solar output also helped offset weaker performance from other electricity sources during hot, still weather.

The milestone caps several years of rapid solar growth. Just five years ago, in June 2021, solar generated only 21 TWh, supplying around 10% of the EU’s electricity.

According to Ember, solar generation has grown by more than 20% every year between 2021 and 2025, making it Europe’s fastest-growing power source. A big reason is the pace of new installations: The EU added 65.1 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity in 2025 alone.

That growth is showing up across the continent. So far in 2026, 18 EU countries have set new monthly records for the share of electricity generated by solar.

Spain crossed an important threshold in June, with solar supplying 34% of its electricity for the first time. Ember says the country’s support for renewable energy helped shield consumers during the recent energy price spikes that followed the US-Israel war with Iran, saving households about €10 per month on electricity bills.

Germany also set a new record, with solar providing 36% of its electricity in June after topping 33% of generation in May.

Meanwhile, Poland – still one of the EU’s biggest coal users – generated 24% of its electricity from solar in June. The country has added more than 20 GW of solar capacity since 2020, making it one of Europe’s fastest-growing solar markets.

Clearly, solar is only a solution to the need for renewable electricity for part of the year.  As can be seen in the chart above, in November, December, January and February, solar electricity generation is low.

Fortunately, low solar in winter is offset by high wind-generated electricity.  The chart below is from Jan Rosenow's Bright Spots.



The blue is the percentage share of wind in total generation, the yellow is the share of solar.  They mostly offset each other, and definitely have a negative seasonal correlation.  But sometimes they don't offset each other.  The brown bars show days when both wind and solar are low at the same time.  This is called dunkelflaute, when it's cold, dark and still.  We have as yet no satisfactory way to deal with dunkelflaute except by burning gas in peaking gas plants.  True, this will only be for a few days each year, but if we are to reach true-zero (as opposed to net-zero) we would need to find some way around this problem.

My second observation is the large day-to day fluctuations in output.  Even though they often offset each other, over the winter months, wind shows large day-to-day movements without being offset by solar.  Which means that as the share of renewables in the grid rises, we will need not just 4 hours of storage (the norm for solar, so far) but conceivably as much as 24 hours to average output over two days, even before we tackle dunkelflaute.

I remain convinced that the solution is synthetic natural gas (SNG — nice oxymoron there!).  This takes hydrogen produced via electrolysis using surplus green electricity, and then, using the Sabatier process, combines this with the CO2 to produce methane (H2+CO2 ---> CH4).  The most expensive part of this process would be direct air capture, extracting the very low percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere.  However, using the exhaust flues of gas power stations is much easier and much cheaper.  There would be a closed loop: burn gas ---> keep CO2 ---> use CO2 to make new methane ---> burn gas to generate electricity.   Europe has an extensive gas grid, significant (weeks) gas storage, and many legacy gas power stations.  Plus, methane is much easier to store and transport than hydrogen.