US bond sell-off intensifies

Bonds had a brief rally (i.e., yields fell) when the Fed raised the fed funds rate (the Central Bank discount rate).  The fear in the markets had been that the Fed was going to become Trump's creature and go soft on inflation.  The rise in the fed funds rate reduced that fear, and long-dated bond yields fell.  That lasted just 2 days, and yields have now moved to new highs.  Why?  The same reasons as before.  In particular, it's clear that the Iran war is not over, inflation is higher than targets, and recent data suggest that world economies are strengthening, meaning that there will be further rises in C.B. discount rates.  

Tightening credit tends to cause economic slowdowns.  And right now, the US economy is propped up by spending on AI, which is funded by venture capital and private credit, both of which rely on loose general credit markets.   This developing credit crunch is not good for shares or the economy.  Take care out there, people.

Access to the president

 By Bill  Bramhall

How robots will actually kill us

 From Smooth Dunk

Fear + ignorance = hate

 I don't know who drew this.  If you do, drop me a line on my Mastodon or Bluesky accounts.

(ReformUK is a far-right UK party, which Elon Musk enthusiastically supports)

Bromance

By Michael de Adder 

Should we rely on negative-emissions technologies?

 Short answer: no.

From Dr Aaron Thierry

"The Integrated Assessment Models informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies. If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway"

(From UNEP)

Look how large negative emissions have to be to achieve net-zero by 2070 (never mind 2050!) on current pathways  — almost as large as positive emissions in 1980.  We should not rely on negative emissions to stop the climate catastrophe, because we almost certainly won't be able to achieve them.  To save ourselves, we must cut actual emissions.   Now.  Forget pie-in-the-sky schemes to offset emissions and start working on replacing fossil fuels in our economy.

Heart Aerospace's first flight

 I've been following Heart Aerospace's electric plane since 2021.   It made its first flight in August, a flight which lasted 30 minutes and cost just $5 for "fuel" (electricity).  Most ES-30s will be hybrid, though, because current battery energy density isn't high enough for ranges longer than 150 miles (250 km).  Also, 1 in 1000 flights in the US get diverted to an airport 100 miles away.   Having two hybrid engines will allow the ES-30 to get ranges up to 500 miles and provide backup if a diversion is necessary.

Regional air travel is the most expensive air travel per kilometre.  So Heart Aerospace isn't just about reducing emissions and noise, it's also about filling a gap in regional and short-range passenger travel that has been abandoned by airlines because it became too expensive.

If it goes into service, the first flights won't be until 2031, because it takes years to get certification.  

Remember, the first really successful electric car was the hybrid Toyota Prius.   It took a decade before fully electric cars were available, and another decade before they became mass market. 

The first video shows an overview of the first flight, the second is an interview with the founder of Heart Aerospace, Anders Forslund.