Saturday, February 17, 2024

The problem of methane

 It looks as if emissions of CO2 will peak this year or next, and start falling.  Too slowly, but in the right direction.  As more renewables are installed, and more EVs are sold instead of petrol cars, the decline in emissions will speed up. 

The problem is methane:  it's rising fast.  It's ~82 times as potent as CO2 over 10 years.  It's responsible for 1/3rd of the rise in temps since 1850-1900, the agreed and most practical benchmark for pre-industrial temperatures.   Since temperatures now exceed that 1850-1900 level by 1.5 degrees C, methane is responsible for 0.5 degrees of the rise, and is likely key to the acceleration of the decadal increase from 0.2 degrees per decade to 0.3 degrees.

Now for the good news.  Methane rapidly decays to CO2.  So if we stopped emitting it, we could (optimistically!) cut temps by up to 0.5 degrees C, because atmospheric methane would fall dramatically, and temperatures with it.  Even if we halve methane emissions, we could reduce global temperatures by, say, 0.2 degrees.

40% of methane emissions come from fossil fuels  --- "fugitive emissions", which everybody else calls "gas leaks".   This could be cut by tighter controls.   And as we use less coal and oil, these emissions will anyway decline.  20% comes from rubbish dumps.  This can be cut by covering rubbish dumps with soil.   

40% come from agriculture; mostly from the burps and farts of cows and sheep and other animals we grow for meat.   And this is where you can make a personal difference.  The biggest decline in methane emissions would come from going vegan, but if you can't face that, cutting out beef, mutton and milk would be a good start.  Even going from eating meat once a day to once a week would make a difference.  What's more, cutting back on meat will reduce land clearing and the potentially disastrous clearing and burning of the Amazon rain forest.

We are all consumers and voters.  We can make a difference.  Start today.


Source: Our World in Data
The chart shows methane emissions as CO2 equivalents, but uses a 100-year timescale for the calculation, which reduces the calculated impact of methane four-fold.


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