Frank Sinatra, in his iconic song New York, New York, said “If you can make it there, you’ll make it anywhere, it’s up to you, New York, New York.” In October 2009, Jay-Z and Alicia Keys released their smash hit “Empire State of mind” where Jay-Z says he feels like the new Sinatra because “Since I made it here (New York), I can make it anywhere.”
I have been feeling the same way when it comes to EV ownership in Zimbabwe. There is a popular joke in Zimbabwe that living in Zimbabwe is such an extreme sport that it is a skill in a league of its own that one’s CV should just read “Lived in Zimbabwe” on the experience section. That’s because Zimbabwe has been famous for some unbelievable stuff over the past couple of decades, such as world record inflation at times leading to the infamous One Hundred Trillion Dollar Zimbabwe Dollar note around late 2008/early 2009. Yes, they did actually print a One Hundred Trillion Dollar note this century. There are no more trillion dollar notes in Zimbabwe, but inflation is still very high — triple digit high!
These regular cycles of runaway inflation and foreign currency shortages lead to periodic petrol and diesel shortages. They also lead to periods of insane electricity rationing. That’s because when there is a drought (like now), the country’s largest generation station, the 1,050 MW Kariba hydropower plant, has to throttle generation. Recently, Kariba has had to throttle generation to a maximum of 300 MW due to low water levels. Then there is the aging coal power plants that break down quite often, leaving a large deficit, hence the utility company has to implement load-shedding. There is the Southern African Power Pool, where Zimbabwe gets some imports from its neighbors, but that also presents some problems.
1. Some of the member states in the region such as South Africa are also having their own issues and are implementing heavy load-shedding cycles. 2. Zimbabwe’s foreign currency drama and Zimbabwe dollar currency chaos mean that they can’t always import enough from neighbors to help cover some of the deficit. This meant 18-hour daily load-shedding cycles were implemented in 2019, and now in 2022, Zimbabweans are experiencing 20-hour daily load-shedding cycles. Most Zimbabweans are only getting electricity from midnight to 4 am. I am one of them and I drive my electric car every day!
Our family driving pattern has not changed much since before the load-shedding started. We still do the school runs, and the ballet and swimming runs. We live in a rented apartment so we can’t really install solar where we stay. So, we just wait for the electricity to come back after 11pm and then the car will charge while we sleep. Sometimes the utility company switches off the power around 4 am, sometimes 5 am, sometime 6 am. Even when the power goes at 4 am, that 4 hours or so is enough to get our 24 kWh Nissan Leaf to more than 80% or to 100%. Around the world, most people when asked if they want to go full EV will be quick to ask about range and charging infrastructure issues. If I can drive an electric car in Zimbabwe, you can drive one anywhere!
When Sharee McCammon and her partner set out for Sydney on a road trip the price of petrol in cities along the east coast had spiked to more than $2 a litre.
But the couple made the 2,751km journey from their home in Huonville, south of Hobart, for the total fuel cost of $43.38.
“We were invited to a wedding in Sydney, my niece’s wedding,” McCammon says. “And we thought we would do a test if our very short-range, relatively cheap, second-hand EV was up to the trip.
“The idea was to make a road trip, so we took our time. We wanted to see little towns, have lunch and things along the way.” It was almost three years since the prime minister, Scott Morrison, suggested electric vehicles would “end the weekend” because they would not “get you out to your favourite camping spot” among other things.
For McCammon, 55, the purchase of a 2016 Nissan Leaf second hand from the Good Car Company for $24,990 saved the road trip.
The drive between Sydney and Melbourne cost just $12.74 one way, and $13.86 return for a total of $26.60, compared with the $150 or more it would have cost one-way in a petrol-fuelled car at the time. The Tasmanian legs of the journey in the Leaf accounted for the remaining $16.78 of the total cost.
The trip took the couple, who belong to a coalition of social and environmental groups called the Tasmanian Climate Collective, on the overnight ferry from Devonport, up through Melbourne to Wangaratta.
From there they drove to Yass, and then on to Goulburn and Sydney, where they stayed a week before making the return trip.
The couple charged their vehicle several times along the way. McCammon, a self-confessed “data nerd”, says the average recharge time was between eight and 20 minutes, which they used for driving breaks, lunch and dinner.
“It’s not enough time to get a coffee,” she says. “We took our little camp stove and we never got to finish our cup of tea before the car was ready.
“It’s important to note that this is one of the smaller range EVs you can buy. Most new EVs might only need one charge to or from Sydney to Melbourne.”
[The petrol cost for the whole journey from Huonville to Sydney would be ~$200, roughly 5 times as much as the cost of the electricity. At current oil/petrol prices, EVs are a no-brainer]
Sharee and Graeme McCammon charged their electric vehicle several times on the way from Huonville to Sydney mostly for between eight and 20 minutes. Photograph: Graeme McCammon
Electric-car sales will decrease in 2020 due to the global coronavirus pandemic, but not as much as sales of internal-combustion vehicles. That's among the top-level predictions from an annual Bloomberg New Energy Finance report released Wednesday. It also predicts that electric cars will continue to gradually gain market share in the coming decades, declaring that "long-term prospects remain undimmed." Global electric-car sales will decrease by 18% in 2020, to 1.7 million, the report predicts. But sales of internal-combustion cars are predicted to fall even faster—by 23% globally. Electric cars are expected to account for 3% of global new-car sales in 2020, rising to 7% in 2023, at some 5.4 million units, and continuing to increase from there, according to report. [An annual growth rate of 32.6%] By 2040, EVs will account for 58% of new-car sales globally, and 31% of the global car fleet. [This is a projected slowdown in the growth rate, from 32.6% per annum to 16% per annum. Why would this happen when EVs become cheaper than petrol cars, as BNEF forecasts below?] Bloomberg previously predicted that electric-car sales would surpass internal-combustion vehicles in 2037, and this latest report appears to renew that data point. [If the annual growth rate remains at the level projected fro 2020-2023, 50% of total car sales will be EVs by 2030, not 2037.] In addition, 67% of municipal buses, 24% of light commercial vehicles, and 47% of two-wheelers—including mopeds, scooters, and motorcycles—will be electric by 2040, the report predicts. There are already over 7 million electric cars on the road, along with more than 500,000 electric buses, 400,000 electric delivery vehicles, and 184 million electric two-wheelers, the reported noted, with most buses and two-wheelers in China. Those vehicles are already impacting global energy demand. Electric vehicles, particularly two-wheelers, are already taking out almost 1 million barrels of oil demand per day. [This implies that oil demand will fall another million barrels a day by 2023—in other words we have seen peak oil—and the peak oil price] It predicts that EVs will remove 17.6 million barrels of demand per day by 2040[total global oil demand is roughly 100 million barrels/day], while increasing global electricity demand by 5.2%. Steady growth in electric-car sales will be helped by decreasing demand for internal-combustion cars, which analysts claim peaked in 2017. [Now that is very interesting—it suggests conventional car manufacturers are now in a declining market] Falling battery prices will also allow EV costs to "cross over" with gasoline or diesel counterparts by 2025, on average, according to the report, adding that the date could vary by market. It could be 2022 for large cars in Europe, or 2030 or later for small cars in Japan or India.
BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) has come out with new data for average battery pack prices. In 2019, average prices fell again, by 13%. Since 2010, battery pack prices have fallen by an average of 19.4% per annum, and if we exclude 2015, when Tesla's Powerwall was introduced, when the average battery pack price fell 35.4%, the average decline has been 17.4% per annum.
BNEF forecasts that the pack price will fall below $100/kWh in 2023 (down from 2025 last year), which is more or less a compound rate of decline of 10% per annum. But if we assume a 15% p.a. rate of decline, which is slower than the rate of decline over the last decade, then the $100/kWh line will be crossed in 2022.
$100/kWh is the point at which most analysts believe EVs will have the same sticker price as ICEVs (petrol/diesel cars). EVs are already cheaper to run than ICEVs because electric engines are 4 times as efficient as petrol engines and have 100 times fewer moving parts so are easier and cheaper to maintain. So, in 2022 or 2023 EVs will start to dominate the car/light truck market.
So far, EV manufacturers have chosen to expand range rather than cut car costs, as exemplified by the Nissan Leaf, the first modern EV:
From now on, though, the fall in battery-pack costs will feed through into falling EV sticker prices. There will probably be a big spread of ranges available with EVs, from those with perhaps 100 miles (160 kms) through to luxury cars with 300 miles (480 kms) range. The implications for the oil price long term are obvious.
EVs are still expensive to buy, though not to run. Which is because batteries are still costly, and even though they're falling 20% in cost per annum, they will remain expensive for another 5 or 6 years. What's more, demand growth is so strong that batteries are in short supply. Many legacy car manufacturers didn't believe that the EV revolution as going to happen, and so haven't contracted with battery suppliers. The early movers have grabbed the lion's share of supply.
So what's the work-around?
Well, it comes from somewhere unexpected: cars driven by electric motors without a plug. In other words, a petrol (gasoline) motor drives a generator which in turn drives an electric engine which turns the wheels.
When I first heard this I thought it was insane. Why would you choose two energy conversion losses over one? As so often, the situation is more complex. The internal combustion engine (ICE) has a single number of revolutions where it is at its most efficient. But when it's the only engine, it must vary its revolutions per minute because of changing speed. Which reduces efficiency. Which is also why ICEs need gearboxes. An electric engine doesn't need a gearbox, and will run efficiently at a wide range of revs. Plus, with an electric engine you can have regenerative braking, where slowing down the car recharges the battery. And because the petrol/electric engine combo is more efficient, it can be smaller and lighter. As well as needing no gearbox.
EV vs serial hybrid vs parallel hybrid
Source:CarAdvice.com
e-Power is the petrol-electric hybrid technology Nissan hopes will transition the world to EVs
Nissan Australia may be without a 'proper' passenger car in its current line-up but the Nissan Note e-POWER small car is gaining fans in Japan thanks to its flexible hybrid powertrain. Taking knowhow from the LEAF battery electric car and applying it in a series hybrid, the little Note e-POWER offers sprightly city car performance. Combining a battery, electric motor, 1.2-litre three-cylinder engine and decent-sized fuel tank, the Note has a theoretical range of around 1300km. Will this affordable transition technology be a successful bridge to the future? While it may be Tesla that gets all the electric car plaudits, it is Japanese manufacturer Nissan that has the most runs on the board. In the past eight years, Nissan has sold over 300,000 battery-electric LEAF vehicles, with owners accumulating over 3.9 billion kilometres on pure electric power. Building on that success, the second generation Nissan LEAF has just been confirmed for Australia and its longer range (expected to be around 240km of real world driving) is likely to extend its appeal to a broader group of buyers. Without widespread charging infrastructure and incentives, however, it may prove tough to convert mainstream buyers to a mid-$40,000 small car, regardless of its tech smarts and environmental credentials. This is where Nissan's new e-POWER technology comes in. e-POWER is a petrol-electric hybrid system with no plug, which offers electric car performance and exceptional fuel economy with no compromise on long-range driving. It reduces the need for a large battery, so it is more affordable too. Unlike other car manufacturers which have gone from internal combustion engines through hybrids to battery electric vehicles, Nissan's gone the other way around -- taking what it has learned from LEAF and applying it to the e-POWER system. Simply, e-POWER system is a series hybrid which pairs a 40kW electric motor with a small 1.2-litre three-cylinder engine which acts as a generator for the 1.5kW battery. Whereas a conventional parallel hybrid uses the engine to drive the wheels, the purpose of the e-POWER's engine is just to charge the battery -- the wheels are always electrically driven. On start-up, the Note is silent and initial acceleration is instant thanks to the electric propulsion system. At moderate throttle input, e-POWER draws charge from the battery but when needed, the engine-generator kicks in to charge up the battery. The combination makes a noticeable drone once it is activated. As the engine itself is a small three-cylinder unit that runs at constant rpm, it isn't a conventional engine noise and a bit monotone in its sound.
The efficiency gains are astonishing. The Nissan Note e-Power gets 2.9 litres/100 km, or 81 MPG (in the old, and still US measurement) This compares with Toyota's Prius, which has a combined electric/petrol engine where both engines can directly drive the wheels (i.e., a parallel hybrid) , with a MPG of 54 (4.4 l/100km), with the average US MPG at 24.7 (9.5 l/100km) and Australia at 10.6 l/100 km (22.2 MPG). Wow. What's more, because it has such a small battery, it's relatively cheap. Carsales.com (the source of the review above) lists 2017 Nissan Notes at A$28,000 including 10% sales tax (US$19,600) The 2019 model will cost more, but the 2019 new Leaf will cost A$50,000 (including import duties and sales tax). 40% cheaper with no range anxiety.
From the consumers' POV, a serial hybrid is very like an old-fashioned ICE. You put petrol in it, it has about the same 'sticker price' as an 'ordinary' petrol-driven car, but on the other hand it is super efficient and cheap to run, just like an EV. You get some of the fun of driving an EV. You don't have range anxiety. In fact you never plug it in to an electrical socket. Parallel hybrids like the Prius are more expensive and not as efficient. And of course EVs are scary, and expensive to buy. From the car-makers' POV, building a serial hybrid is the way to learn all about making real EVs, plus you don't have to source lots of batteries in a world where battery demand greatly exceeds supply. From society's perspective, serial hybrids will reduce emissions from transport by more than 50%, without a huge up front cost.
I expect that the push to reduce emissions will lead to rapid growth in serial hybrid market share, until battery costs fall enough to make a petrol engine more expensive than larger batteries. And it's something the legacy car makers can do to get aboard the EV bandwaggon before it's too late. Most haven't set up substantial battery supply contracts or factories—they have little choice if they want to avoid bankruptcy/extinction.
I've been lamenting that ordinary folk won't be able to buy an EV for another 5 years. But if legacy car manufacturers get their act together (I admit, that may not happen) we may be able to buy cheap and efficient serial hybrids before that. And I surmise that as battery costs fall, Nissan and othe manufacturers will add a plug and a larger battery. For example, adding just 4 kWh capacity to the Note's existing 1.5 kWh battery would give an extra 40 kms (25 miles) of petrol-free range, so that overnight charging would provide most motorists with the day's commute.
There were lots of stories concerning early EVs, about how batteries died quickly and needed to be very expensively replaced. It turns out that it's not just Tesla batteries which last a loooong time, but also Nissan's Leaf's.
Nissan claims the batteries in its Leaf electric cars will last 22 years, an estimated 10-12 years longer than the average life of the car itself. Nissan reached its conclusions based off of data from the 400,000 Leafs it has sold in Europe since 2011, managing director of Renault-Nissan Energy Services Francisco Carranza said at the Automotive News Europe Congress this week. “We are going to have to recover those batteries,” Carranza said. Nissan is considering a number of options for reuse. As one example, it already has a 3 megawatt storage system at Amsterdam’s Johan Cryuff Arena, which uses 148 new and used Leaf batteries. The company also offers home solar panels and battery options, and like other carmakers such as Honda, it’s looking at ways to use its electric car batteries to store electricity from the grid and return it at the proper times, with revenue back going to the car owners. The company has been testing some form of vehicle-to-grid systems for years. Last year, the company even debuted a modern streetlight powered by used Leaf batteries and solar panels. Automotive News Europe also notes the Leaf is certified as an energy plant in Germany, Denmark, and the UK, which allows to connect to the grid in more traditional ways. Carranza said, “It’s working even better than we anticipated selling back to grid. The more you dig, the more you find gold. The amount of revenue and profit by using vehicles to provide services to the grid is big.”
