From Ray Wills
World 1.5MBPD oil displaced by EVs in 2024 China in 2025 Oil market not about the 100 mbpd we use, but the 1-2 mbpd YOY change Oil markets break on variations > 1-2MBPD [Highly inelastic demand] China's vehicle fleet electrification has just removed 250ML/day of China's demand - or >1.5MBPD
#Iran war highlights how #oil has become the Achilles Heel of the global #economy. EVs have already avoided equivalent of 70 pct of Iran's exports, and could do more.
From Professor Ray Wills
When these countries decided to swap to electric vehicles, they just did And it doesn't seem to take long They won't be having much of a crisis of oil (still some, just not as much as the rest of us) Graphs by @leraffl.bsky.social leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...
As ever, S-curves initially turn up (or down!) very slowly. Progress looks so s-l-o-w. Then, wham! ICEV sales fall from to from 80% to 20% in an average of five years. Notice in the charts how PHEVs initially rise, because consumers have range anxiety, but that quickly disappears as rising EV sales lead to rising numbers of charger sites, while the cost of two engines becomes unacceptable.
Anecdotal reports suggest huge jumps in EV sales as a result of the current oil crisis.
(The two Bluesky accounts are:
https://bsky.app/profile/profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
and
https://bsky.app/profile/leraffl.bsky.social)
From Visual Capitalist
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| Click on the chart to see a clearer image. I hate the way Blogger does this. |
In 2019, electric vehicles were still a niche purchase in most countries, accounting for single-digit shares of new car sales.By 2025, EVs had moved from niche to dominant in several markets. In Norway, EVs were estimated to make up 97% of new car sales, meaning nearly every new car sold was electric. Several other countries crossed the 50% threshold, and in China, EVs made up more than half of all new car sales in the world’s largest auto market.
This infographic highlights how EV sales share has evolved between 2019 and 2025. The data for this visualization come from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Ember. EVs include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Sales figures for 2025 are estimates.
Taken together, the data shows how quickly EV adoption has moved from early adoption to mainstream across much of the global auto market.
(ICEV = internal combustion engined vehicle)
From Our World in Data
Electric cars have become incredibly popular in China. In 2020, one in eighteen new cars sold was electric. By 2024, this had increased to one in two.
This growth has pushed down sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, which run mostly on petrol. As you can see in the chart, sales of ICE cars peaked in 2017 and have declined since.
The world reached peak ICE car sales just one year later.
The displacement of petrol cars with electric ones is vital in decarbonizing transport. The rise of electric vehicles in China means the IEA expects oil demand to peak earlier than previously projected.
Here, “electric cars” include fully battery-electric ones and plug-in hybrids. In China, 56% of them were fully battery-electric.
My forecast: EVs and PHEVs will reach 90% market share in China by end 2029.
From a skeet by Lauri Myllyvirta
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
Demand for main petrochemicals [however], measured in ethylene equivalent, grew 8% - surging plastics and chemical production continues, with lots of new capacity coming online at the end of the five-year plan. Import substitution plays a part but cannot account for most of the growth.
I've been puzzling over the reported growth in transport fuel production in recent months, which doesn't seem to be accounted for by domestic demand or net exports. The Sinopec data suggests that it's inventory buildup (or under-reported exports?).
China's emissions have either peaked already, or will soon do so. In which case, world emissions will also peak. The decline initially will be small, but it will accelerate because of cheap EVs, solar and batteries. Our task now is to steepen that curve and to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuels.
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| Source: Our world in data |
From CleanTechnica
September saw plugin EVs at 31.1% share in Germany, up from 23.7% share year-on-year. BEV volume increased by 32% YoY, while PHEVs grew 85%. Overall auto volume was 235,528 units, up some 13% YoY. September’s best-selling BEV was the Volkswagen ID.3.
Since 2024 was a low baseline, let’s look at the YTD progress vs. both 2024 and 2023. Combined plugins are now at 28.4% YTD, with 18.2% BEV and 10.3% PHEV. 2024’s respective figures were 19.3%, with 13.1% BEV and 6.3% PHEV. 2023’s respective figures were 23.9% with 18.1% BEV and 5.8% PHEV.So although 2025 is looking much better than 2024, with a 9.1% additional share of the market going to plugins, it is only marginally better than the same period in 2023. All of that marginal improvement is down to the growth of PHEVs over the two intervening years.What’s also different since 2023 is the lack of BEV incentives now (after being cancelled in December of that year). In short, the transition has recovered from that trauma and is now advancing under its own steam (a more robust path than relying on incentives) – and is less vulnerable to future setbacks.PHEVs are back to a share they last saw in 2021 and 2022, but the difference this time around is that the new generation of PHEVs have an electric range of over 80 km in most cases (vs. mostly under 50 km previously). This generation is thus more likely to contribute to “mostly electric km” of the overall vehicle fleet during their 15+ year lifespan. As Germany’s transition continues over the next couple of years, PHEVs will plateau and then fade away, as they did in Norway.
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| EV subsidies ended at the end of 2022, hence December 22 spike. |
An interesting video by Energi Media
From EVCurveFuturist
What if I told you that even with political setbacks, EVs will dominate car sales by 2030? That’s right—despite recent challenges, the road to mass BEV adoption is still clear. Back in 2019, I projected that global BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) sales would reach between 90-95% of total vehicle sales by 2030. This forecast was based on several critical factors: technological improvements, cost reductions, increasing consumer acceptance, and strong policy support from major economies.
However, as we move into 2025, new developments have prompted a reassessment of these projections. While my 2024 forecast was accurate—missing the actual NEV (New Energy Vehicle) final sales figure by just 100,000 units—I have now factored in the ‘Trump effect’ when updating my 2025-2030 outlook.
The ‘Trump effect’—including a 25% tariff on imported EV batteries, reduced federal tax credits, and emissions regulation rollbacks—could raise U.S. EV prices by 10% and slow sales growth by 5%. As the U.S. remains a major automotive market, this impacts global adoption, lowering my projection from 95% to 90% by 2030. However, state initiatives like California’s zero-emission mandates and New York’s infrastructure investments may mitigate these setbacks. Local policies can counteract federal headwinds, keeping the BEV transition on track.
Despite the potential challenges posed by the ‘Trump effect’, strong consumer demand, rapid battery innovation, and international momentum for EV adoption persist. Europe and Asia are doubling down on their commitments to electric mobility, driven by emissions regulations and aggressive electrification targets.
Technological advancements continue to lower the cost of ownership, with new battery technologies like LFP and sodium-ion promising even greater affordability and efficiency. Recent insights from ARK Invest suggest that EV adoption is surpassing traditional S-curve dynamics, indicating a more rapid and expansive growth trajectory. As battery costs decline, EVs become accessible to new consumer segments, sparking fresh waves of adoption. ARK’s analysis highlights that, rather than plateauing, EV adoption is accelerating, driven by overlapping adoption cycles as cost reductions make BEVs increasingly attractive to budget-conscious buyers. According to BloombergNEF, battery costs have fallen from $132/kWh in 2022 to $89/kWh today, with LFP batteries already at $50/kWh in China. Coupled with 500KW global fast chargers expected by 2025 (IEA), the cost and convenience of BEVs are set to dominate new car sales.
Emerging markets like Latin America, India, and Africa face challenges with charging infrastructure, but affordable EVs from brands like BYD and sodium-ion battery tech offer potential solutions. A major driving force here is the desire of everyday people to break free from oil dependency and escape the cycle of petrol price gouging. The economic motivation for energy independence is especially strong in developing regions, where fuel costs can take a significant portion of household income. By transitioning to cheap renewables and EVs, these communities can reduce reliance on volatile oil, coal and gas markets, making electric mobility not just a technological shift but a social and economic liberation. These regions, with their growing demand and focus on cost-effective solutions, could have an edge in reaching 90% adoption by 2030 if infrastructure gaps are addressed.
While the consensus often lands around 50% BEV sales by 2030, I project 90% based on the S-curve formula used to model adoption in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden. Key factors include battery cost reductions, technological advancements, and the collapse of ICE supply chains. I also foresee that from 2027 onwards, global PHEV sales will begin collapsing. PHEVs have long been viewed as a transitional technology—providing a safety net for those wary of limited range or charging availability. However, advancements in battery density, particularly with LFP and sodium-ion technologies, are rapidly making PHEVs obsolete. As costs drop and range extends, the onboard petrol generator loses its appeal, especially when BEVs offer lower maintenance, running costs, and a simpler powertrain.
From 2027 to 2030, the growth of BEVs will be exceptionally strong for several reasons. First, the maturity of next-gen battery technologies will push prices well below parity with ICE vehicles, making BEVs the obvious financial choice. Second, legacy automakers, facing increasing pressure to electrify, will accelerate their BEV lineups while phasing out hybrids. Lastly, consumer preferences will continue to shift toward pure electric as charging networks expand and EV infrastructure becomes more ubiquitous, reinforcing the idea that hybrids were merely a temporary stepping stone. I wrote more in depth on this subject in Why PHEVs Are Losing Their Shine.
[Read more here]
August data for China's EV/PHEV/EREV* sales are flat. That's mostly due to weak overall car registrations (down 9% YoY in August). But the percentage is also declining, though the latest month shows a tiny uptick. I seasonally adjust these time series, but because Chinese new year can sometimes be in January and sometimes in February, it's tricky to get entirely reliable seasonal factors. This has been complicated by multiple Covid lockdowns. Sometimes the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) publishes data for one month, sometimes an average for both January and February, and sometimes no data at all for those two months. I might actually just default to fitting a centred 12-month moving average to the data. In the meantime, for what it's worth, here are the charts.
EV and PHEV sales in China continue to motor ahead.
The first chart shows EV and PHEV sales in absolute terms, seasonally adjusted (by me), and plotted on a log scale. A log scale shows a time series with a constant growth rate as a straight line. The line on the chart below has been gradually levelling off, implying that the growth rate trend is gradually slowing.
This is confirmed by the chart below. There are wild swings over the covid period, but the trend growth rate has slipped to 30% per annum over the last 3 years. That's still a high growth rate, which would lead to a doubling of EV sales every 3 years.
The growth rate of EVs remains much higher than the growth rate of petrol cars. In fact, petrol car sales in China peaked in 2018/19, recovered partially after the Covid lockdowns, but have since resumed their decline. The chart below shows EVs/PHEVs as a percentage of total car registrations. It is not plotted on a log scale. Note the occasional spikes, which occur when EV sales go up and total sales go down. This happens when government incentive schemes change, or when Chinese New Year moves, or simply because of random swings in the time series--one zigging up and the other down in the same month. (Seasonal adjustment of monthly time series in China is tricky because of the peripatetic new year.) There is no fundamental reason for the spike in April, or for the decline in May and June, and I expect to see it reversed over the next few months. EVs will continue to gain market share, because battery prices continue to decline fast, and even despite government attempts to reduce very competitive conditions, EV prices are likely to remain under pressure.
China produces ~1/3rd of the world's cars, and EVs/PHEVs make up more than half of them. By the end of this year, that ratio will prolly be 60%. It's worth remembering that in January 2014, only 0.2% of cars sold in China were EVs or PHEVs. And notice the surge in the percentage of EV sales over the last five years, from 5% to 55%. (Just a personal note: most analysts got this acceleration completely wrong. Prof Ray Wills and Tony Seba got it right. And luckily, I believed them, so I did too.) This is a classic S-curve, but it shows no signs of flexing over, yet, though as EV sales head towards 80 or 90% of total sales, that has to be imminent.
[Data sources: José Pontes at CleanTechnica; Prof Ray Wills, China's NBS (National Bureau of Statistics); my seasonal adjustment (tweaked X-11 variant); my smoothing, using a 13-term Henderson curve.]
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| BYD Seal |
From Business Insider
BYD has set its sights on Tesla's European backyard.
The Chinese EV maker announced on Monday that it would nearly triple the number of sales and service locations in Germany, the home of Tesla's European gigafactory, by the end of 2026.
The German expansion comes as part of a larger European push that will see the number of BYD stores on the continent double to more than 2,000 next year, executives said in a press conference at the IAA Mobility summit in Munich.
BYD, China's biggest automaker, has bet heavily on overseas markets as it confronts fierce competition back home.
According to executive vice president Stella Li, the company now sells 13 models in Europe, and sales have surged so far this year.
BYD outsold rival Tesla in Europe for the second time this year in July, as Elon Musk's carmaker grapples with slowing sales in its third-largest market.
Buoyed by recent success, BYD is now looking to put down roots. The company showed off its new SEAL 6 DM-i Touring, a hybrid sedan with a combined range of up to 1505km, in Munich, and is building a factory in Hungary with a production capacity of 200,000 cars a year.
Li told reporters that the Hungarian plant, which will allow BYD to avoid the 17% tariff imposed on Chinese cars by the European Union last year, would begin production by the end of 2025. She added that the $24,500 Dolphin Surf hatchback will be the first car to be made in the factory.
BYD is also planning to roll out its ultra-fast "megawatt" EV chargers in Europe, which the company says can add 400km of range in just five minutes.
Li said BYD aimed to install 200 to 300 of the ultrafast chargers, which are twice as powerful as Tesla's top EV chargers, in Europe by the second quarter of 2026.
From Need to Know
The chart above shows that 33 countries generate more than 50% of their electricity from solar and wind. Surprising, right?
Here’s another big surprise: 32% of total energy use worldwide comes from renewable sources.
In other words, one-third of all energy used today is being met by zero-carbon sources.*
There is a lot of misinformation and disinfo about energy. Clarification of some terms is necessary:
The term energy includes electricity and liquid fuels like gasoline.
Energy generation or energy production (also called primary energy) is the amount of energy generated/produced by an energy source, such as a coal power plant or solar panel.
Energy consumption (sometimes called energy demand or final energy) is the amount of energy used to perform tasks such as moving a bus.
It is important to know the difference. Here’s why:
Two cars of similar size, driving the same distance.
One is gasoline-powered, the other electric.
The electric vehicle will consume or use 75% less energy. Why is that? Burning gasoline generates a lot of energy, but 65% of that energy is lost as waste heat. Also, electric motors are inherently more efficient.
Bottom line: You can travel the same distance using 75% less energy with an EV. **
(Bonus: no air pollution and very little CO2 added to the atmosphere.)
The costs of wind, solar, and batteries have plummeted. It is now cheaper to build and operate new wind and solar farms than to keep many existing coal plants operating.
That’s why 93% investments in all new electricity generation in 2024 went into wind and solar.
Also, 1 in 5 cars sold in 2024 was an EV or hybrid. This year it’s expected to be in 1 in 4 vehicles sold. (In China, it is 1 in 2. )
The chart below includes other sources of producing clean electricity, such as hydro. 56 countries now get 50% or more of their electricity from clean energy sources. (Note: electricity and “power” are often used interchangeably, although that’s technically incorrect.)
The main thing to keep in mind in the complex world of energy is that burning fossil fuels wastes 65% of the energy they produce. (See chart from the U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory — 67.3% of All Energy Generated in the U.S. is Wasted.)
* Note: Some of this post is drawn from energy expert Michael Liebreich’s excellent essay “The Five Horsemen and Five Superheroes”.
** Here’s Liebreich’s more detailed car comparison:
Say your VW Golf is managing 40 miles per gallon, a pretty normal figure for real-life usage. This translates to 1kWh/mile or, after accounting for losses in extracting, refining and distributing your fuel, 1.2kWh/mile. The equivalent electric VW ID3, after adjusting for grid and charging losses, uses just 0.3 kWh/mile. By switching, you have achieved a 75% reduction in Primary Energy Demand and opened up a route to eliminate 100% of emissions from driving – with no reduction in mobility.
A video from Undecided by Matt Ferrell
Yes, it's catastrophically stupid. It's as if, at the beginning of the jet age, the US government had banned jets and insisted on using Lockheed Constellations and DC-6s. By the time America comes to its senses (if it ever does) China will be so far ahead, the US will never catch up.
From the ABC, Australia's national broadcaster.
In April this year, China installed more solar power than Australia has in all its history. In one month.
This isn’t a story about Australia’s poor track record on solar; Australia is a global leader. Rather, this shows the astonishing rate at which China is embracing renewable technologies across every aspect of its society.
But don’t make the mistake of thinking this transformation is driven by a moral obligation to act on climate change.
China’s reasons for this are less about arresting rising temperatures than its desire to stop relying on imported fossil fuels and to fix the pollution caused by them.
The superpower has put its economic might and willpower behind renewable technologies, and by doing so, is accelerating the end of the fossil fuel era and bringing about the age of the electrostate.
“The whole modern industrial economy is built around fossil fuels. Now the whole world is moving away from that and that means that we are rebuilding our economy around emerging clean tech sectors,” said Muyi Yang, the lead China analyst at energy think tank Ember.
“Once the new direction is set, the momentum will become self-sustaining. It will make reversal impossible. I think China now has set its direction towards a clean energy future.
“Can you imagine that the Chinese government will say that, oh, we will go back to fossil car, not the electric cars? That won’t happen. That’s not possible … this momentum is becoming so strong.”
It’s hard to communicate the scale of China’s clean technology rollout but it helps to look back to recent history to appreciate the transformation.
China became the world’s factory at the end of the 20th century, manufacturing cheap, low-quality products. This industrialisation modernised the country but also caused widespread environmental damage and drastic air pollution.
The factories were powered by fossil fuels, causing China’s emissions to skyrocket and it to become the largest polluter in the world.
China overtook the United States for top place in 2006, but the US is still responsible for the most emissions historically, at one-quarter of all emissions.
Still, China’s pivot to renewables wasn’t just about addressing these rising emissions.
With polluted waterways and acrid city smog long ago becoming their own crises, China had to act. Part of that response, starting a decade ago, was a plan called Made in China 2025, which outlined how it would reshape its manufacturing capability to focus on high-tech products, including the ones needed to address climate change.
The authoritarian regime put the heft of the state behind clean technologies at a scale and pace difficult to imagine in most democracies.
It began to invest in all components for renewables, especially wind, solar, electric cars, and batteries that are used for both transport and energy storage. To do this, it used significant government-funded subsidies, said Ember’s Muyi Yang.
“We all understand that young sectors and technologies need some protection for them to grow. It’s like helping a baby to learn how to walk; initially, you need to support them.
“But I think the logic behind China’s policy support is always clear — this support is not meant to be pumped up indefinitely.”
When China rose to industrial dominance in the 1990s, it realised that it could maximise output by developing hubs where all parts of a supply chain for a product are built in the same region. The same approach was applied to renewables, meaning battery factories were established near car plants, as an example.
“It’s not about subsidies. It’s about sound planning, sustained commitment, and targeted support,” Yang said.
As the Made In China plan unfolded, more and more power was needed to fuel these energy-hungry factories and the lifestyles of the burgeoning middle class. To keep up, China built new coal-fired power stations, even as it was installing more wind and solar.
This “dissonance” between China’s booming renewables and coal has meant China is painted both as a climate hero and a villain.
It’s also meant that emissions kept rising.
[However,] a decade after the Made in China plan began, the country’s clean energy transformation is staggering.
“It’s a really interesting policy because it’s a 10-year plan to become a world-leading clean tech manufacturer, which they’ve outright achieved,” said Caroline Wang, the China engagement lead at the think tank Climate Energy Finance. “They’ve made themselves indispensable in the new kind of global economy.”
China is home to half of the world’s solar, half of the world’s wind power and half of the world’s electric cars.
“In the month of April alone, 45.2GW of solar was added, more than Australia’s total cumulative solar power capacity,” Caroline Wang said.
“China’s renewable capacity has exponentially increased and that has also contributed to the drop in coal, in coal use and emissions. There is now a structural kind of decline of coal.”
That’s already having an impact on emissions:
Recent analysis from Carbon Brief found the country’s emissions dropped in the first quarter of 2025 by 1.6 per cent. China produces 30 per cent of the world’s emissions, making this a critical milestone for climate action.
With its unmatched economies of scale, this dramatic acceleration has also brought down the cost of electrification across the world and made China the world leader in clean technologies. Chinese-made electric cars are becoming more dominant on Australian [and Thai, and Malaysian, And Brazilian ....] roads — something that’s already happened for the solar panels and batteries installed across Australian homes.
“China has successfully helped the rest of the world lower the bar for them to embark on the transition. This makes it easier for many other countries to jump on board,” Ember’s Muyi Yang said.
“The transition has to be affordable, otherwise it will be extremely difficult for many developing countries.”
China’s clean energy exports in 2024 alone have already shaved 1 per cent off global emissions outside of China, according to Carbon Brief, and will continue to do so for the next 30 years.
Caroline Wang points out that this green era has also brought major economic benefits.
“It drove 10 per cent of their GDP last year — just the one industry, clean energy. It’s overtaken real estate, and that says a lot because real estate was the driving force of their economy until a few years ago. But now it’s been overtaken by clean energy,” she said.
China’s renewables expansion is also striking because it could not be more different to the direction of another world superpower, the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
Casting aside the climate damage it will wreak, the US is in a position to return to its “drill, baby, drill” roots because the country produces more than enough fossil fuels to cover its own needs.That’s not the case for China. One of the key reasons it has pivoted to electrification is to get away from its dependence on imported fossil fuels.
“I think there’s some deep strategic thinking … it’s not only about the environmental obligation or international commitment, and it can also not be fully explained by economic benefit in terms of jobs and investment,” Yang said.
“Energy is a basic input for economic activities. Energy security is critical because it’s critical for supporting a functioning economy.”
“China sees the old, the conventional fossil fuel growth model as not sustainable. And it is becoming increasingly unable to sustain long-term prosperity.”
When the world’s economies became hooked on fossil fuels, they became dependent on the countries that could supply them, and the price of fossil fuels increasingly dictated global markets.
“This dates back to issues in the 1970s with the [oil] crisis,” said Jorrit Gosens, a fellow at the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU.
“That’s really when people start to think about energy security, especially when we talk about China.
“China typically is described as very rich in coal, but very poor in natural gas and oil.”
Electrification is changing that, and China — the world’s biggest oil importer — is already weaning itself off with electric cars.
“If you go to Beijing today, you can honestly stand at intersections with four lanes going every way and it’ll be quiet as a mouse. The noisiest thing coming past will be a creaky bicycle,” Dr Gosens remarked.
Last year, crude oil imports to China fell for the first time in two decades, with the exception of the recent pandemic. China is now expected to hit peak oil in 2027, according to the International Energy Agency.
This is already having an impact on projections for global oil production, as China had driven two-thirds of the growth in oil demand in the decade to 2023.
The 20th century was dominated by countries rich in fossil fuels, and many of the world’s conflicts fought over access, power and exploitation of them.
Done right, electrification could change that too, as most countries will be producing their own electricity.
“Even if you have pretty poor-quality natural resources, you can still squeeze quite a bit of electricity out of a solar panel. It’s really changing the geopolitics,” the ANU’s Dr Gosens said.
“Renewable energy is the most secure form of energy that there is because you just eliminate the need for imports.
“But also the cost of it, right? It’s a stable cost. You lock it in as soon as you build it. You know what the price of your electricity is going to be. You get insulated from both those risks if you have more renewable energy.”
For Australia, one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas, there is plenty to take from this, with China’s furious electrification paving the way for the rest of the world to follow.
“Even if we have these climate wars here still … we can bicker about how quickly we should transition away from fossil fuels domestically [but] the rest of the world is ultimately going to decide how much they’ll be buying of our coal, gas and iron ore,” Dr Gosens said.
“I think that’s the biggest risk — that we fail to prepare for something and that these changes will be much quicker than we currently anticipate.”
For Climate Energy Finance’s Caroline Wang, it’s in Australia’s interest to be clear-eyed about what’s happening in China.
“I think a gap in Australia and other Western countries is knowledge and understanding. China is a complex country … it’s got good and bad. For the energy transition space, which is full of complexity, there’s a real need, for our strategic national interests, for Australia to understand what is happening in China.”
Finding hope in national self-interest and security might seem strange, but for Wang, China’s transformation makes her more optimistic about the climate crisis.
“This is the world’s largest emitter, the largest population. If they’ve managed to do it in quite a short time — a decade — it’s a kind of achievement that we haven’t seen any other country achieve. And so it’s very inspiring. Seeing that on the ground gave me hope for other countries, including Australia … there are lessons there to be learned.”
Honestly, it's quite simple. We have to stop burning fossil fuels to stop global temperatures rising.
Simple in concept, but not in execution. We have to replace a couple of thousand coal power stations with wind, solar, and nuclear power. And we have to transition our whole car and light truck fleet to EVs. 1.6 billion of them! And find ways to power air travel with renewable fuels. Electric planes aren't quite there yet. Oh, and then there's cement and steel, where the manufacturing processes emit CO2, quite apart from the energy used. But, essentially, if we can halve emissions, we will also halve the decade-by-decade rise in global temperatures from +-0.2 degrees to +-0.1 degrees. Which will give us more time to reduce emissions from those harder sectors.
Together, land transport and electricity generation contribute roughly 50% of emissions, globally. And the good news is that in these sectors, the clean energy alternatives are cheaper than fossil fuels.
For example, in Australia, BYD now sells an electric car (EV) which costs the same as a Toyota Corolla. Since EVs are 4 times as efficient as petrol cars (most of the fuel burnt in a conventional petrol engine is wasted as heat, and isn't used to drive the car forward) they are already much cheaper to run than petrol cars. Now, they're cheaper to buy as well. What's more, when the regulations are promulgated (why so slow, Federal Government?) you will be able to run your house on the electricity in your car. The BYD will have roughly 45 kWh of stored electricity in its battery. Average daily household use in Australia is 15 kWh. So you'll be able to charge your EV when power is cheap (midday, and again after 10 pm) and use it when power is expensive (4 pm to 9 pm). So for the same price as a petrol car, you'll get a giant household battery, cheaper car fuel bills, and much-reduced electricity bills.
This has been made possible by the collapse in battery costs. And that deep, and continuing, plunge has been parallelled by the fall in solar panel costs. While high latitudes will never be able to run on solar alone, in low and mid-latitudes, such as Australia, we will be able to run our grid on 100% solar electricity, combining it with 6 or 8 hours of storage. And EVs will be part of that revolution, as every household and every business gets them.
All these trends are being driven by market forces. Extremely competitive Chinese manufacturers are driving down prices. BYD spends as much on research as its total profit. CATL, the world's largest battery manufacturer, has introduced a sodium-ion battery. Sodium is a lot cheaper than lithium, and is also much safer. The same vigorous competition is driving down solar panel costs.
That's not to say we're out of the woods. There are powerful regressive forces which want to delay the transition, and useful idiots yelling loudly about how unfair it all is. Bring back steam trains!
Plus there are methane emissions from cattle and sheep, and CO2 from cement and steel. Methane is 80 times as potent a greenhouse gas, over a 10 year horizon (after which it decays into CO2) There's air transport, and sea transport, and home heating (bring on heat pumps!).
However, we must move faster. The seas are dying, and half the tree of life is going extinct. We should attempt to halve emissions by 2035, and halve them again by 2045. With costs of solar and batteries plunging, that's achievable.
From Wolfgang Blau
Staggering figures. Source: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b... “Nepal, The Country Where 76% of Cars Sold Are Electric”
Meanwhile, the USA, under the Republicans, is doing its best to destroy America's EV industry. The US car industry will never catch up.
From Electrek
Global EV sales surged in May 2025, hitting 1.6 million units sold, according to the latest data from EV research house Rho Motion. That brings the total for the year so far to 7.2 million EVs, a 28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. [So, we could reach at least 20 million EVs/PHEVs globally by the end of the year, 25% plus of total car sales.]
The big winner: China. The country sold a record-breaking 1 million EVs in May alone. That’s a 33% jump year-over-year, and a 10% boost compared to April. The rest of the world saw solid gains too, but North America lagged far behind, mainly due to slashed incentives in Canada.
Rho Motion’s Charles Lester broke it down: “The story this month with global vehicle sales is the continued chasm between Chinese market growth, which saw 1 million vehicles sold in May, versus the faltering market in North America.”
Let’s take a closer look:
Europe holds steady, with help from Spain and Italy. Europe is up 27% year-to-date, with 1.6 million EVs sold from January through May. Countries like Germany (+45% YTD) and the UK (+32% YTD) are helping lead the way, but southern Europe is really stepping on the accelerator. Spain saw a whopping 72% growth in EV sales so far this year, and Italy isn’t far behind at 58%.
Germany just rolled out a new set of EV incentives focused on commercial fleets. With corporate vehicles making up more than half the German auto market, those tax breaks and special depreciation offers could supercharge sales in the coming months.
North America stalls out. The US, Canada, and Mexico are dragging, with just 3% growth YTD. That’s mostly due to Canada’s pause on EV subsidies, which caused a steep 20% sales drop.
The US is holding on with 4% growth, helped by the federal EV tax credit that remains in place through the end of the year. But those credits may start phasing out in 2026 and disappear by 2027, if Republicans get their way (or kill them even sooner). Expect a late-year bump as buyers rush to cash in while they still can.
China dominates again. China continues to be the EV powerhouse. In May, it became the first country this year to break the 1-million-EVs-sold-in-a-month mark. It first hit that level in August 2024, and it hit the milestone again just ahead of the summer push.
Chinese automakers aren’t slowing down either. BYD is expanding its presence in Europe with new BEVs and plug-in hybrids. Its tiny budget EV, the Dolphin Surf (called the Seagull in China), just launched in Europe with a price tag around $25,000, and it’s not subject to new EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, since it’s a hybrid. [This may be true of the European version, but the Dolphin Surf in the UK is fully electric]
Australia's EV sales have stagnated for two years, despite increased incentives from the government, but over the last few months, sales have started to rise again. Tesla sales have increased, especially in May, with the "refreshed" version of the Model Y now available in Australia. BYD Dolphin sales have jumped, and seem to have cannibalised sales of other BYD models, but also to have taken sales away from other EV marques. The cheapest "entry-level" BYD Dolphin costs about the same as the cheapest non-hybrid Corolla. Tesla has been the top-selling EV brand in Australia, but I think by the end of the year BYD will be just behind
The data come from The Driven, and as far as I can determine, do not include plug-in hybrids, which have been doing well, as the charger network in Australia still leaves much to be desired. (To be fair, the fast charger network has doubled over the last year.) However, the incentives to buy PHEVs will end on 30th June, so we should see some demand switch back to full EVs.
