From Ember's EV sales tracker.
EVs have risen from 2.4% of total car sales in January 2023 to 51.4% in September 2026. 100% by 2029?
From Ember's EV sales tracker.
EVs have risen from 2.4% of total car sales in January 2023 to 51.4% in September 2026. 100% by 2029?
This chart from Our World in Data shows emissions per capita (average for the world) by sector.
This is an average for the world, but, obviously, it is the wealthy and wealthy countries which emit the most.
By far the largest is electricity and heat at 2,100 kg per capita. It's also essential that electricity is decarbonised to reduce emissions in other sectors. So this is the most important sector where we need to cut emissions. The problem is, it's challenging to do it without the community being behind it. We buy our electricity from the grid. If the grid is mostly fossil fuelled, then how do we reduce our personal emissions from this sector?
In countries where rooftop solar is cheap, this is an obvious way. But, of course, you have to have your own rooftop. And many live in flats, or rent their houses. You can buy plug-in solar — a single solar panel with an inbuilt transformer, which can be plugged into your home grid without required expensive electrical work by an electrician. But this is only just taking off, and legacy electrical utilities are hostile because it reduces their sales and profits.
You can replace your oil/gas heating with a heat pump. But heat pumps are costly up front.
Or you can, with others, set up your own co-op, build your own wind/solar farm, and connect it to the grid. But then you come up against legacy vested interests who bitterly oppose these initiatives. In some countries, you can buy your electricity from a green supplier — just don't choose one which uses offsets to convert black electricity to fake green. Offsets are almost always a scam.
Since it's so hard to reduce your emissions from electricity without the political will from politicians and political parties (vote! vote! vote!), reducing emissions from other sectors becomes even more important.
The next largest sector for emissions is transport, which includes cars, light trucks, heavy-duty trucks, buses, and trains. Outside the USA, EVs have fallen so much in price that they cost up front about the same as petrol/diesel cars, and they are much cheaper to run. If cars make up 75% of emissions from this sector, you could cut your emissions by 750 kg/year if you switched to an EV. (But, remember, if you are from a rich country, your cut will be proportionately much larger.)
The next big source is agriculture. The numbers here vary a lot, partly because measurement is tricky, partly because of accounting for methane (which is usually included as 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2 over 100 years, but should prolly be counted as 80 times as potent over 20 years), and partly because some figures include land use change (deforestation, mostly for beef). By going vegetarian, you could cut your personal emissions from agriculture by 75%, another 580 kg/year.
There is little you can do about manufacturing and construction. This is mostly cement, steel and chemicals. You need government, i.e., collective, action here. Regulations and taxes need to be changed to force de-carbonisation.
There's no getting away from it. Yes, you can personally cut your emissions, and you should, but most emissions come from sectors over which you have no control, and reductions there require collective, i.e., political action. A carbon tax, also applied to imports from countries which don't themselves have a carbon tax, should be our most pressing objective. If the cost of emitting rises, you can be sure that producers will work hard to reduce their emissions, and consumers will switch away from high-carbon products because they will cost more. A comprehensive carbon tax is by far the best way to cut emissions, since it will tweak the price system to discourage carbon-intensive production and demand. But it is also unpopular, even among people who cars about climate change. We need to change that.
From RenewEconomy
It’s not H5N1, or ebola, or mad cow. It’s real, it has symptoms, and it’s potentially more dangerous. It blinds the West to who’s actually winning the energy transition – and much more.
What is Western Economists’ Disease?
Western Economists’ Disease, we define as a chronic underestimation of Chinese economic and industrial capability, dressed up as sober analysis. This has been around for some time but now features climate change politics.
Western economists, journalists and security analysts routinely downplay, dismiss or simply ignore China on a whole range of things, but especially on leadership in decarbonisation and renewables, the tools for net zero.
We are not suggesting China needs special treatment, just better understanding as providing climate change leadership is clearly something the world needs. Europe is burning now with an expected average increase in temperature of over 40C.
The evidence
The data and evidence reveals the symptoms of the Western Economists’ Disease.
In March 2026, when the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered the world’s fourth oil shock, “petro-economists” predicted China’s clean-tech export machine would stall.
Instead, China’s solar exports doubled in a single month to a record 68 gigawatts, battery and EV exports jumped 38%, and clean-tech sales hit US$26 billion — the highest monthly total ever. Fifty countries set new records importing Chinese solar, led by nations hit hardest by the oil crunch, like India and the Philippines.
The Disease is illustrated powerfully by the common statement that the global economy was declining because oil was not being consumed like before. The scramble for oil is a stopgap only as its decline is well underway.
Cleantech is becoming the backbone of the whole global energy system: coal and gas were threatened first but now its oil (Figure 1) shows how rapidly is the growth of EV’s displacing oil.
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| Figure 1 [2000 ML/day = 12.6 million barrels/day] |
China now controls roughly 80% of global solar, 80% of battery cells, 70% of EVs and over 90% of heavy electric trucks. Its new carbon-peaking plan requires new EVs (NEVs) to reach 30% of its entire national fleet by 2030 – implying over 100 million EVs on Chinese roads, more than double today’s level.
In June 2026, China exported over a million vehicles in a single month for the first time, with new-energy exports overtaking combustion exports. Thailand, following China’s playbook with BYD-led investment, is emerging as a second EV export powerhouse, the EU hangs somewhere in the middle with a fascination for more hybrids and fewer EVs, while Japan, the US and (to a lesser extent) stay anchored to hybrids and ICE (Figure 2).
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| Figure 2 |
The lesson for policymakers, is clear: the speed of domestic electrification of new vehicles, is the leading indicator of future industrial competitiveness in the global car market — not export subsidies or slogans.
The same can be seen on all clean tech where China has established its own domestic market first then after mass production at home it can export cheaply to the world (Figure 3). Countries dragging their feet at home, however famous their brands on all tech, including car brands, are quietly ceding the 2030s.
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| Figure 3 |
Western Economists’ Disease isn’t just an idle curiosity – it has a severe risk of leaving the West flat-footed on climate, trade and security policy, including the possibility that we are misjudging China’s strategic intent toward peace and stability.
It’s time we diagnosed it and treated it with the numbers, not the narrative.
The same failure of analysis can infect global reporting and hence security assessments: selectively noticing weakness, treating evidence of capability as somehow suspect, and reading every Chinese action primarily through an assumption of malign intent.
China is neither flawless nor beyond legitimate scrutiny — no major power is. But scrutiny that filters out inconvenient truth is not rigour; it is narrative management.
Poor journalism
The Western Economists’ Disease is not confined to economics and security debates as its clearly attracting much commentary from the media.
When journalists report China’s economy as perpetually “about to collapse” because of “weak oil and gas demand” while overlooking the industrial scale of its diverse clean tech economy including solar, wind, battery, EV and grid build-out, audiences receive a distorted account of material reality. It is the Western Economists’ Disease feeding poor journalism.
When analysts in economics or security begin with the proposition that China must seek conflict due to their rapid growth in clean tech, they risk mistaking deterrence, economic interdependence and stated interests in stability, for mere camouflage. They also undercut political support for global climate change mitigation.
Naïvety or a new narrative
We are not naïve about global security or global economics, as such analysis on China is usually dismissed as naïvety.
We are making a call for evidence-based assessment, reciprocal standards of scepticism, and an ability to distinguish capability from intent. It is a new narrative we are seeking.
The practical stakes are large. Global climate change like that now being seen in Europe is a much bigger security threat for everyone as it can destroy economies.
A West that misunderstands China’s decarbonisation capacity will make poorer climate and industrial-policy choices.
From EMBER
67% of China's car sales in September 2026 were EVs (47.3%) or plug-in hybrids (19.7%). In September 2016, just 0.86% were EVs or PHEVs. I estimate that EV/PHEV sales will reach nearly 100% of total Chinese car sales by late 2028. China is the world's largest car market and now also the world's largest car exporter. The electric cars on Chinese roads are already removing nearly 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand. Oil production is +-84 million barrels per day, so 1% of global oil demand has been taken away over the last few years. This is one reason why the Iran war hasn't caused an even bigger jump in oil prices. And it's a long way from being over — there are +-366 million cars on China's roads, and just 14% of them are electric. Oil demand will ultimately fall by 6 million barrels per day as a result of the transition to EVs in China alone.
Australia's EV and PHEV sales surged to 35.6% of total car sales in August 2026. In August 2022, EVs made up just 4.7% of total sales.
Will sales decline when the Iran war is eventually over? It's possible. But even without the rise in fuel prices which occurred as a result of the war, EVs are still much cheaper to run than petrol/diesel cars. And now they're also cheaper to buy. People who bought an EV have given confidence to others who have worried about switching. The rise in the number of EVs will lead to a surge in new chargers. It will only get easier to run your EV as the charging infrastructure rolls out.
And truly, the cheapest EVs are very cheap. The cheapest car in Australia is an EV, the BYD ATTO 1. It has a low range (220 km), but is dirt cheap to run. If you're poor, it's not going to be a burden to stop off and recharge on long routes, just as it isn't for, say, Pakistanis or Thais.
This is an unstoppable revolution. The S-curve has flexed upwards, and will continue steepening until we get to 90 or 95% penetration. And that's true everywhere — except the USA.
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| Source: EMBER |
This is fantastic. EMBER has set up a new monthly data tool which produces interactive charts showing percentages of total car sales which are EVs, PHEVs and ICEVs.
You can access it here.
In January 2020, just 3.6% of car sales were EVs and PHEVs. By October 2026, this had grown to 29.4%. This percentage hasn't risen much over the last year (28.4% last August) because China's EV sales have slowed because the sales tax exemption has been reduced as of January this year and because the USA has gone into reverse with EVs. But outside these two biggies, the rest of the world is embracing EVs faster than ever. Even Europe's EV+PHEVs have risen from 28.2% in August last year to 38.8% in August this year. And China's EV sales are picking up again.
EVs don't just reduce the need for imported petrol and diesel, they also reduce air pollution and noise, they will cut emissions by +-20%, and they will stabilise the grid. In many countries, thanks to Chinese EV makers, EVs are as cheap as petrol/diesel cars to buy, and much cheaper to run. Buying an EV (if you can afford it) is a big step you can take to cut your personal and the world's emissions.
The 88.5 million EVs and PHEVs already on the roads have already reduced oil demand by 1.4 million barrels a day.
Nepal passed 5% battery electric vehicle share in August 2021 and is at 75%. The U.S. passed 5% in October 2022 and is at 6%.
This is based on data from the terrific new @ember-energy.org EV sales data tracker: ember-energy.org/data/ev-sale...
Note that this is EVs alone, and doesn't include plug-in hybrids.
I spent a lot of time collecting EV data for sharing with you, my readers. But as happens with a new technology as it matures, the data have improved, and I'd like to share with you this excellent site which shows the percentage of car sales that are pure EVs, plug-in hybrids, hybrids and plain fossil-fuelled vehicles. The website is maintained by Robbie Andrew, who is with CICERO — Center for International Climate Research — which is based in Oslo.
The contrast couldn't be greater between China and the US and Japan. China, moving steadily and inexorably to 100% EVs, and already exceeding 60% EVs+PHEVs; the US, which *invented* the EV, at a paltry 5%; and Japan even less. Japan *invented* the hybrid, with the ground-breaking Toyota Prius, but refused to push the plug-in hybrid. To develop production and a market for plug-in hybrids after the creation of the Prius, would have been easy. From there to full EVs would also have been an easy and logical step. But they flubbed it.
Two huge technological advances which should have led the US and Japan to go on dominating global car making. Two great automotive giants of 30 years ago ceding the global market for EVs, and therefore all cars, to China, simply because they refused to accept the reality of, and the opportunity provided by, EVs. And now it's prolly too late to catch up. How stupid. How sad.
From Carbon Brief
The latest surge in fossil-fuel prices means it is now up to nine times cheaper in the UK to drive an electric vehicle (EV) than a petrol or diesel car, shows Carbon Brief analysis.
Since February, when the US first attacked Iran, the average price of diesel has increased by 38% to £1.96 a litre, according to Carbon Brief analysis of government figures.
Following the attack on the Kapotnya oil refinery in Russia on 20 September and with tensions in the Middle East growing, this is expected to pass a record £2 a litre.
(Russia was the second-largest exporter of diesel in the world, but its refineries have been hit every three days on average in the first six months of 2026.)
Similarly, petrol prices have surged by 31% since February to £1.72, based on government figures, with some locations reaching nearly £2 per litre, according to BBC News.
These increases have been driven by oil prices jumping to more than $100 per barrel as the conflict between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalates – a roughly 50% increase from June.
As such, it now costs an estimated 21p per mile to drive a diesel car and 20.1p per mile for petrol, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest figures from the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).
In contrast, it is currently nine times cheaper to drive an EV charged using an off-peak tariff, at 2.3p per mile, as shown in the chart below.
Even if charging with electricity bought at the domestic price cap – the maximum amount a supplier can charge for a unit of energy and standing charge, set by the regulator Ofgem every three months – it still only costs around 7p per mile to drive an EV, three times cheaper than the price for petrol or diesel cars.
The price cap is set to increase in October, but almost all of the increase is for gas, with the unit rate of electricity only expected to rise by less than 1% from 26.1p per unit to 26.3p.
A larger 20% increase in electricity unit rates under the price cap is expected in January 2027, as higher gas costs filter through to an increase in wholesale electricity prices. Nevertheless, EVs would still remain far cheaper to drive than petrol or diesel cars.
UK drivers could save around £80 by charging an EV at home, in comparison with filling up a petrol car at the pump, as shown in the figure below. This is based on comparing the cost of an average full tank of petrol with the cost of enough electricity to drive the same distance.
| BYD ATTO 1 |
From The Driven
BYD has cut the price of its cheapest electric car to just $19,990 driveaway [US$14,190, but the Australian price includes a 10% GST (sales tax), taking the price down to an effective US$12,775], pushing the cost of a new EV in Australia below the $20,000 mark for the first time.
The special offer applies to the entry-level BYD Atto 1 Essential and is available nationwide, according to BYD Australia.
The Atto 1 was already comfortably Australia’s cheapest new electric car, launching at $23,990 before on-road costs late last year. The new offer cuts $4,000 from that headline price while also including on-road costs.
It puts the compact electric hatchback into a price bracket occupied by some of Australia’s cheapest new petrol cars, and represents another significant step down in the cost of entry to a new battery-electric vehicle.
Electric cars have already taken a huge chunk out of the Australian car market this year, posting a record 24.9 per cent share in August, and outselling petrol cars, and diesel, for the first time.
The Atto 1 Essential uses a 30 kWh BYD Blade Battery and offers up to 220 km of WLTP range. Its front-mounted electric motor produces 65 kW and the car can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in 11.1 seconds.
It also comes standard with 11 kW AC charging and DC fast charging at up to 65 kW, along with a 10.1-inch infotainment screen, wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, vehicle-to-load (V2L) capability and six airbags.
BYD Australia chief operating officer Stephen Collins said the price cut was aimed at making electric vehicles accessible to more Australian households as cost-of-living pressures continue.
“At a time when Australian families are carefully considering every household expense, we’re committed to making vehicle ownership more attainable,” Collins said.
“The BYD ATTO 1 at $19,990 driveaway demonstrates our commitment to delivering outstanding value without compromising on technology, safety or quality.”
The deal further intensifies competition at the affordable end of Australia’s rapidly expanding EV market. When the Atto 1 arrived, its $23,990 starting price opened a sizeable gap to other new EVs and made it cheaper than many popular entry-level petrol cars.
Competition has since increased, including the arrival of the Geely EX2, which starts from $26,490 before on-road costs and offers 252 km of WLTP range in entry-level Complete form.
The Atto 1 is also offered in a more powerful Premium variant, which uses a larger 43 kWh battery for up to 310 km of WLTP range and a 115 kW motor.
BYD has been rapidly expanding both its model range and physical presence in Australia. The company says it has introduced eight new models or major variants since October last year, with that number expected to reach 10 by this October.
Upcoming additions include a plug-in hybrid version of the Atto 2 small SUV and the M9, BYD’s first premium people mover for the Australian market.
BYD says it has also been opening an average of one new sales and service centre a week over the past 12 months, and expects to have more than 150 dealerships across Australia by the end of 2026.
BYD has not indicated in its announcement how long the $19,990 driveaway Atto 1 Essential offer will remain available.
This is extraordinary. To date, the cheapest new car in Australia has been the petrol-driven MG MG3, at $19,990. And that isn't the drive-away price — you still have to add $1000 to $2000 to that. The electricity to fill the battery would cost you $9 (30 cents/kWh) on a typical daytime home charge rate, or, at midday, thanks to a new government program, or if you have solar panels, it would be free. Fast chargers typically cost 65 cents/kWh, so to recharge from empty to full using a fast charger, would cost you $19.50. However, most people charge at home, and many use off-peak charging at 20 cents/kWh, if they're not using their own solar panels or the low or zero rate over midday.
The equivalent range in the MG3 would cost roughly $30 of petrol. (That is with current prices; without the Iran war it would be cheaper.)
Problem: the range is short. If you wanted to drive from, say, Melbourne to Sydney, you would have to stop 3 times to recharge. With the petrol MG, you might not have to refuel at all, since the MG3's range is 750 km. In practice, though, one only makes long journeys occasionally. The average daily commute is 16 km, and 73% commute 20 km or less.
To sum up: you can now buy an EV which is cheaper up front than the cheapest equivalent petrol car, and will cost you much less to run.
Outside the US and Europe, Chinese-made EVs are going to grab market share from ICEVs, not because people care about climate change, or because of pollution, but because EVs are cheaper. And the switch to EVs, here in Australia, and globally, has accelerated because of Trump's Iran war. What a glorious irony.
Europeans are responding to soaring petrol/diesel prices by buying EVs and hybrids. That choking noise you hear is the death rattle of ICEVs.
From Inside EVs
Europeans’ appetite for electric cars is not slowing down. Last month, EV sales in the region went up by 51% compared to the same month last year, leading to a crisp 25% market share for this type of powertrain, according to Dataforce, which crunched the numbers from 98% of all new car registrations in the European Union, United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland.
In the first seven months of 2026, EV sales grew 37% compared to the same period last year, helping the entire industry keep its numbers in the green. By comparison, the entire European car market went up by 4.1% last month and 5.7% from January through July.
The growth of EV sales outpaced plug-in hybrids and traditional hybrids, too, with PHEV sales rising by 15% in July, while full-hybrid sales were up 9%. Rising fuel prices and an ever-expanding lineup of electric cars are more than likely the main drivers behind the sustained growth of EV registrations in Europe.
France and Germany, two of the biggest car markets in Europe, are leading the EV boom, with more and more battery-powered vehicles hitting the roads every month. In July, France hit a 35% EV share, with over 44,000 registrations. Meanwhile, full-electric cars reached a 29.3% share last month, with nearly 79,000 registrations.
In total, 277,006 EVs were registered in Europe last month, and none of Tesla’s models are at the top of the list. The Škoda Elroq was the best-selling EV in the region, followed by the Volkswagen ID.4 and the Renault 5 E-Tech. However, the Tesla Model Y is still the best-selling EV in Europe after the first seven months of the year, with 115,759 registrations, an increase of 55%. Škoda’s Elroq is second, with 67,679 units, followed by the Tesla Model 3 with 57,086 cars sold.
| The Škoda Elroq |
From Inside EVs
While tariffs and the destruction of plug-in vehicle subsidies have gutted the market for electric vehicles in the U.S., elsewhere in the world the numbers continue to surge.
In the UK in August, sales of battery-electric cars surged 30% year over year, according to data from New Automotive, a research firm. As a result, EV market share hit 30% of new car sales, beating gas [petrol] vehicles, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and diesel models. Notably, non-hybrid combustion models only made up 27% of the UK market, so even if they’re not buying a full EV, buyers are opting for something that is electrified in some fashion.
UK EV sales have been on the upswing this year. Data from New Automotive, shows that in July, the country's EV registrations jumped 50% compared to the year before, bringing their market share to 27%.
It’s a no-brainer as to why the UK is EV crazy. For starters, there’s a zero-emission vehicle mandate that aims to phase out combustion engines entirely by 2035. This goal is tiered, with EVs to account for 33% of new car sales in 2026, 80% in 2030, and 100% by 2035. Manufacturers that sell enough EVs to hit the ZEV target get credits, while those who don’t meet it must pay penalties. This incentivizes automakers to develop and sell EV models. The UK also has direct subsidies for buyers of EVs.
The UK also has a lot of Clean Air Zones that disincentivize cars that pollute too much, making drivers who wish to drive into certain areas pay a fee. Cars that are clean-air compliant, such as an EV, don’t need to pay any clean-air fees.
Those incentives seem to be working. Rising fuel prices due to the Iran war have been boosting EV sales across Europe too.
So cars with an electric engine now make up three-quarters of UK new car sales. The S-curve is flexing up. Can anyone doubt that by 2030, almost all cars sold will have an electric motor, and more than half will be pure EVs?
From Chris Meder (EVCurve Futurist)
Driving electric is up to 4× cheaper than petrol. 100 km costs: ⛽Petrol: $22–$33 ⚡EV (home, 6pm): $5.90 ☀️EV (midday solar): $1.20 Same distance. Massive difference. Plus no servicing or oil changes. Around $4k saved every year —a family holiday instead of fuel bills.⚡ #Bettrification #EVs #Save
From CleanTechnica
Plugin vehicle registrations were up 9% year over year (YoY) in April, ending the month at around 1.6 million units. Interestingly, BEVs (+19% YoY) and PHEVs (-9% YoY) behaved very differently, with pure electrics back to double-digit growth while plugin hybrids remained in the red. This is the first time since 2019 that PHEVs remained in the red for four consecutive months.
This meant that, while the plugin YTD numbers are barely positive (+1% YoY), that is solely due to the PHEV blues (-10% YoY), because BEVs are already on the way back to normal (+7%).
And the different dynamics between pure electrics and plugin hybrids are reflected in the BEV vs. PHEV share of plugin sales — in April, BEVs represented 72% of all plugin sales, or about 1.15 million units, one of the best results of the past few years. That led the YTD breakdown to be 70% vs. 30% in favour of pure electrics, which is touching the ceiling of BEV share of the past 12 years. Since 2014, BEVs have floated between 70% and 50% of the total plugin share.
With numbers out of the red zone, it is undeniable that globally, this year started slow. But there is one easy explanation for this — incentives. Or the end of them.
The end of US incentives last October, added to the partial removal of incentives in China at the end of 2025, had an expected impact, as these are the 3rd and 1st largest EV markets, respectively.
Actually, if we remove China and the USA from the tally, EVs jumped 50% YoY globally in April, with BEVs surging +63% YoY, their highest growth rate since June 2023.
Funny enough, PHEVs are also underperforming in this metric, as the 23% PHEV growth rate in April, excluding China and the USA, is the lowest for the technology in over a year. It is starting to look like PHEVs’ current slowdown is more structural than expected….
Just because certain media-friendly markets are down, that doesn’t mean that all markets are down.
Here are a few examples of fast growing markets:
- BEVs jumped 157% in Australia, to 16% share;
- In Italy, BEVs surged +99% YoY, bringing their share to 9%;
- In Argentina, BEVs experienced exponential growth, going from less than 100 units in April 2025 to over 1.300 units last month;
- As for Ireland, BEVs doubled their sales to 3,000 units, or 27% share;
- In South Korea, BEVs surged 160% YoY, to 36,000 units, or 24% share;
- In Vietnam, BEVs tripled to 26,000 units, or 43% share;
- As for Japan, BEVs more than doubled their sales YoY, to 7,000 units, or 2% share;
- In Indonesia, EV sales were up 93% to 15,000 units, or 18% share;
- Finally, in Malaysia, BEVs jumped 104% YoY to 6,000 units, or 8% share;
So, Keep Calm and Carry On — the EV revolution is in good health, and with what is happening in the Middle East, ICE vehicle sales are going to melt even faster.
The charts below use CleanTechnica's data, but my seasonal adjustment and trend-fitting.
The slowdown in global sales can be clearly seen, as well as the recent pick-up as the Iran War drives people to buy EVs and PHEVs.