Showing posts with label EVs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EVs. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Plug-ins now one quarter of new car sales

 From CleanTechnica

Plugin vehicle registrations were up 9% year over year (YoY) in April, ending the month at around 1.6 million units. Interestingly, BEVs (+19% YoY) and PHEVs (-9% YoY) behaved very differently, with pure electrics back to double-digit growth while plugin hybrids remained in the red. This is the first time since 2019 that PHEVs remained in the red for four consecutive months.

This meant that, while the plugin YTD numbers are barely positive (+1% YoY), that is solely due to the PHEV blues (-10% YoY), because BEVs are already on the way back to normal (+7%).

And the different dynamics between pure electrics and plugin hybrids are reflected in the BEV vs. PHEV share of plugin sales — in April, BEVs represented 72% of all plugin sales, or about 1.15 million units, one of the best results of the past few years. That led the YTD breakdown to be 70% vs. 30% in favour of pure electrics, which is touching the ceiling of BEV share of the past 12 years. Since 2014, BEVs have floated between 70% and 50% of the total plugin share.

With numbers out of the red zone, it is undeniable that globally, this year started slow. But there is one easy explanation for this — incentives. Or the end of them.

The end of US incentives last October, added to the partial removal of incentives in China at the end of 2025, had an expected impact, as these are the 3rd and 1st largest EV markets, respectively.

Actually, if we remove China and the USA from the tally, EVs jumped 50% YoY globally in April, with BEVs surging +63% YoY, their highest growth rate since June 2023.

Funny enough, PHEVs are also underperforming in this metric, as the 23% PHEV growth rate in April, excluding China and the USA, is the lowest for the technology in over a year. It is starting to look like PHEVs’ current slowdown is more structural than expected….

Just because certain media-friendly markets are down, that doesn’t mean that all markets are down.

Here are a few examples of fast growing markets:

  • BEVs jumped 157% in Australia, to 16% share;
  • In Italy, BEVs surged +99% YoY, bringing their share to 9%;
  • In Argentina, BEVs experienced exponential growth, going from less than 100 units in April 2025 to over 1.300 units last month;
  • As for Ireland, BEVs doubled their sales to 3,000 units, or 27% share;
  • In South Korea, BEVs surged 160% YoY, to 36,000 units, or 24% share;
  • In Vietnam, BEVs tripled to 26,000 units, or 43% share;
  • As for Japan, BEVs more than doubled their sales YoY, to 7,000 units, or 2% share;
  • In Indonesia, EV sales were up 93% to 15,000 units, or 18% share;
  • Finally, in Malaysia, BEVs jumped 104% YoY to 6,000 units, or 8% share;

So, Keep Calm and Carry On — the EV revolution is in good health, and with what is happening in the Middle East, ICE vehicle sales are going to melt even faster.

The charts below use CleanTechnica's data, but my seasonal adjustment and trend-fitting.

The slowdown in global sales can be clearly seen, as well as the recent pick-up as the Iran War drives people to buy EVs and PHEVs.  


 



Friday, June 5, 2026

Electrifying: EV sales in Australia

From The Driven

Australia’s latest VFACTS and EVC data confirms what we’ve been charting all year: EV sales are multiplying, ICE is slowly losing control of the market, and the power EV dealers are supplying is genuinely electrifying.

China now dominates as the source of those vehicles, while grease and petrol and diesel look so “last century” with every monthly update.

As Tim Minchin might put it, the sun is finally coming out on Australia’s electric age – and this time it’s science, not faith, doing the work.

The May 2026 figures show another big jump for battery electrics.

Tesla’s Model Y has topped the national sales charts, while BYD remains the leading EV brand on year-to-date volumes, and Zeekr has emerged as the fastest-growing new player.

EV sales overall are up more than 110 per cent year-on-year, a doubling that reflects both rising demand and a rapidly widening model mix. Every month, more Australians discover that the supposed compromises of EVs were mostly theatre; the weekend, it turns out, was never really at risk.

Country-of-origin data reinforces the point.

China is now firmly the number-one source of new vehicles in Australia, well ahead of Japan and pulling further away.

A growing share of EVs on Australian roads – and a fair number of hybrids and even some ICE models – are built in Chinese factories, whether they carry BYD, Zeekr, MG, GWM, Volvo or Tesla badges.

For a country that doesn’t build cars, we are being swept along an S-curve largely designed in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Since the post‑COVID bounce in 2021, petrol and diesel volumes have been sliding on a clear downward trend, punctuated by the familiar EOFY “dead cat” jumps seeking moonlight.

Even those June bounces in 2023 and 2025 only delivered lower plateaus afterwards, as buyers shifted into hybrids, plug‑ins and BEVs. BEV sales are now close to overtaking the combined hybrid sales including PHEVs, as they first tried to do in 2022.

The old oil era is fading into the twilight, even as the solar‑powered sun finally rises over the showroom, tomorrow.

The long-run picture is no summer fling; combustion is in a decidedly not slow fade-out to the horizon.







By contrast, the electrified side of the ledger is all upward motion. Hybrids first inched into the mainstream, then PHEVs began to appear in meaningful numbers, and BEVs have recently shot to one in five sales in market share.

In the last few months, the BEV line on our charts has started to look like those classic S-curve graphs from EV-heavy Europe and China – and Singapore and Indonesia. This is what the steep part of the transition feels like: one record month after another, as more households and fleets decide they’ve had enough of fuel-price roulette.

Policy and geopolitics are both amplifying the trend.

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard is only in its early stages, but it is already nudging manufacturers to push low- and zero-emission models harder and to clear older, higher-emission stock.

At the same time, the world’s fourth oil crisis has reminded Australians how fragile the “cheap fuel forever” story really is. Each time global tensions flare and servo price boards jump, a few more drivers decide they’re ready to unplug from oil altogether.

That’s why this moment matters.

For decades, petrol and diesel were the unquestioned kings of Australia’s car market. Now, almost quietly, they are becoming the legacy option. ICE-only is still more than half of new sales, but that share is shrinking, and the trend has momentum.

The old soundtrack of the market is fading under the hum and whirr of motors powered from the grid and, increasingly, from rooftop solar.

So yes, Grease is so last century – at least for Australia’s car fleet.

EVs are no longer a sideshow; they’re the main act, stepping into the spotlight as the headliners from the age of oil shuffle offstage.

For all the noise and scare campaigns, the data say, the future turns up slowly, then all at once, like the sun coming out after a long, cloudy morning.

And from what the latest VFACTS data shows, this is one number that’s only going to keep building, key change after key change, as electrified vehicles take over the chorus line.

The chart below shows monthly EV sales, unadjusted for seasonality (blue line), adjusted for seasonality (red line) and smoothed (my seasonal adjustment and smoothing).  Note logarithmic scale. 

 Sales have doubled over the last year; given that EVs now have the same sticker price as petrol/diesel cars, and are much cheaper to run, rapid growth is likely to continue.  As The Driven's article points out--we are in the steeply rising part of the S-curve.  See the lower chart, which is plotted on a linear scale.





Tuesday, April 21, 2026

UK EVs now cheaper than petrol cars

 From The Guardian

The price of new battery electric cars has fallen below petrol cars in the UK for the first time, according to the car sales website Autotrader, in a significant milestone in Britain’s transition away from fossil fuels.

The average price of a new electric car listed on the website was £42,620, compared with £43,405 for a new petrol model – making the former £785 cheaper based on advertised prices after discounts.

The higher upfront cost of electric vehicles has long been one of the big sticking points preventing some drivers from switching away from cars with polluting petrol and diesel engines towards those with battery motors, which do not emit carbon dioxide directly. Total running costs for electric cars have been lower for some time.

UK battery electric car sales accounted for 22% of new car sales in the first three months of the year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a lobby group.

Prices in the UK have been pushed down by the electric car grant brought in last summer, offering up to £3,750 off some models. Carmakers have also been under intense pressure to drop prices to meet electric car targets, known as the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and from an influx of Chinese competitors that have been able to undercut traditional brands.

Autotrader is the UK’s biggest automotive marketplace, although it does not cover all transactions across the country. The data suggests that the UK has reached a pivotal moment for decarbonising its road transport, as a cheaper upfront cost and significantly lower running costs combine to make electric cars increasingly attractive to buyers.

Bex Kennett, the head of new car at Autotrader, said: " ...carmakers had been forced into historically high levels of discounting earlier this year” as they tried to increase electric sales. However, their efforts appear to have been aided by the war in Iran, which has caused a rise in petrol and diesel prices. Car sales platforms across Europe have reported large increases in inquiries for electric cars from consumers keen to cut their energy costs.

Gurjeet Grewal, the chief executive of Octopus Electric Vehicles, the car division of the energy company, said the term milestone “gets thrown around a lot, but this really is one. For the first time, EVs are cheaper than petrol cars on upfront cost – removing one of the biggest barriers to switching.

“They’ve long been cheaper to run, and now they’re cheaper to buy, too. Add in growing competition and more choice, and it’s clear the direction of travel: electric is the obvious option for drivers.”

However, the transition to electric cars in the UK still faces some barriers. Households across the country who do not have driveways are reliant on the public charging network, which remains patchy in some areas.


Given the strategic risks revealed by the Iranian war, the government should regard the EV subsidies as money well spent. 

In Australia, the BYD ATTO 1, shown below, is comparable in size and performance to the petrol Suzuki Swift, and is roughly the same price (AUD $24,000, which includes a 10% sales tax), without subsidies.  An A$3,000 subsidy for EVs costing less than $30,000 would sharply accelerate EV sales in Australia, as it is in the UK.


The BYD ATTO 1, Australia's cheapest EV.


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Renewables met 100% of global demand in 2025

 From Renew Economy


Record amounts of new solar and wind generation capacity met 99 per cent of global electricity demand growth in 2025, new data shows, as the rise and rise of big batteries helps transform solar into a “round-the-clock resource” – with Australia leading the charge.

According to the Global Electricity Review 2026 from energy think tank Ember, renewable power generation increased by 887 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025, outpacing electricity demand growth of 849 TWh for the year.

Solar – as noted above – was the big star of the year, with new PV generation meeting 75 per cent of the net increase in global power demand, growing by a record 636 TWh in 2025 to reach 2,778 TWh in 2025, a 30 per cent jump on 2024.

The increase in global solar capacity [output] was 18 times as large as that of gas (+36 TWh), which was the only fossil power source that grew in 2025, Ember says.

A separate report, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Energy Review says the global solar juggernaut contributed the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology in 2025, and helped renewables outpace coal growth for the first time. 

In the context of the current Middle East conflict, Ember notes that the solar generation added in 2025 would be sufficient to displace gas-fired electricity equivalent to all LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz in the same year, estimated at 550 TWh. 


Global solar generating capacity [output] has been doubling roughly every three years, Ember says, rising from 1,333 TWh in 2022 and overtaking wind power for the first time globally in 2025. Both solar and wind are expected to overtake nuclear in 2026.

Wind energy, too, had a bumper year according to a separate Ember report, which shows that the global industry installed a record-smashing 165 gigawatts (GW) – or 205 TWh – in 2025, marking the highest ever level of new installations for the wind power industry.

Australia followed the global wind trend, charting 43 per cent year-on-year growth with 1,200 new wind projects coming online in 2025, compared to 835 in 2024 – bringing the total number of wind projects by the end of 2025 to 13,515. 

“Australia recorded a significant increase in wind generation … due to stronger wind conditions and major new wind farms coming online, such as the 412 MW Goyder South wind farm and the 923 MW MacIntyre Wind Farm, Australia’s largest-ever wind farm project,” the report says. 

But Ember notes that fewer projects achieving final investment decision and approval for the coming years, due to planning delays, inflation and community opposition, points to a drop in the future pipeline.

In combination, wind and solar now contribute more than half of all global renewable generation and, combined with nuclear (8.9%) and hydro, low-carbon sources reached 42.6 per cent of total electricity generation in 2025, up 9.1 percentage points from 33.5% in 2015. 

On the other side of the coin, the share of fossil generation fell to 57.4 per cent, down from 66.5 per cent in 2015. This was the first year since 2020 without an increase in electricity generation from fossil fuels and only the fifth year without a rise this century.

For storage, 2025 was also a landmark year, in which battery economics reached a turning point, with battery pack prices for stationary storage falling to a record low of $US70/kWh – down 45 per cent on 2024 – allowing dispatchable solar with batteries to be delivered for around $76/MWh.

“This makes it cheaper and faster to build than a new gas power plant, particularly in countries reliant on expensive LNG imports,” the report says. 


Globally, battery storage capacity additions jumped by 46 per cent from 2024 to an estimated 247 GWh, according to Ember – enough to shift around 14 per cent of global solar generation from daytime to other hours.


According to the IEA, battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025, with the roughly 110 GW of new capacity added over the course of the year beating the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas.

“Battery storage is the fastest growing power technology today,” the IEA says.

“Installed capacity is now eleven times higher than in 2021. Lithium‑iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now account for around 90% of deployments; while less energy‑dense than rival chemistries commonly used in EVs, LFP batteries are typically cheaper and better suited to more frequent cycling. Just five years ago, the market share of LFP batteries in deployments was well below 50%.”

Ember marks 2025 as the year that batteries are “finally moving into the mainstream” to help shift solar power beyond daylight hours and unlock the next phase of solar expansion.

“Batteries have outgrown their initial niche role as a grid stability service and are now core infrastructure designed to store excess daytime electricity and release it in the evening and at night,” the Ember report says.

In this regard, Ember says Australia is leading the world, as one of two countries alongside Chile that could shift more than 50% of the new solar capacity added in 2025 with new battery capacity, transforming PV generation from a daytime solution to “a nearly round-the-clock resource” and the most affordable pathway to meet rapidly rising electricity demand.


“Australia and Chile stand out for adding relatively small amounts of battery capacity in absolute terms, 9 GWh and 4 GWh respectively, but large enough relative to their solar growth to make a material difference,” the report says. 

“Australia shows how batteries can quickly reshape power markets once deployed at scale. In Q4-2025, during the high-value evening peak hours (18:00-20:00) in the National Electricity Market, batteries set prices 36% of the time – doubling from 18% in Q4-2024, displacing gas and hydro as price setters.

So much for renewables leading to higher prices!

“This led to significantly lower price volatility compared with Q4-2024, with average spot prices of around $100 per MWh during 18:00-20:00, less than half of the Q4-2024 average spot prices during these hours. This helped bring overall prices lower, with wholesale prices averaging $50/MWh, a $39/MWh (-44%) reduction from Q4 2024.

These dynamics, says Ember, show batteries are already delivering tangible system benefits by reducing reliance on expensive fossil generation and stabilising prices at the most critical times of day.

“We have firmly entered the era of clean growth,” says Ember managing director Aditya Lolla.

“Clean energy is rapidly redefining the foundation of energy security in a volatile world. It is already helping countries reduce exposure to fossil fuel imports and costs while meeting rising electricity demand.”


 It's clear that emissions from electricity (~30% of total emissions) have peaked.  It's now obvious to everybody, except those who get paid not to see the truth, that reliance on oil and gas is an economic and a strategic risk.  EV sales have risen 50%, as consumers have seen the light, but it must also be self-evident to all in government that it would be far less risky to permanently uncouple economies from oil.  So it is likely that emissions from land transport (~18% of emissions) will peak soon, as EV sales explode.  And governments will force their electricity producers to install more solar and batteries and less gas, to reduce reliance on LNG shipped through the straits of Hormuz.

Also, the oil crisis will most likely lead to a recession, because of a combination of physical constraints on output (for example, Europe has just 6 weeks of aviation fuel left), on confidence (consumer and business) and on incomes (a jump in inflation.)  I lived through the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, both of which led to deep recessions and surging inflation, and this crisis is bigger than those two. In fact, the oil supply shock is bigger than those two combined.  And the consequent fall in oil demand will only be partially replaced as economies recover.  

Emissions have peaked.  Unambiguously good news.

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

If only we'd switched to EVs faster

 From Ray Wills


World 1.5MBPD oil displaced by EVs in 2024 China in 2025 Oil market not about the 100 mbpd we use, but the 1-2 mbpd YOY change Oil markets break on variations > 1-2MBPD [Highly inelastic demand] China's vehicle fleet electrification has just removed 250ML/day of China's demand - or >1.5MBPD



From The Driven


war highlights how has become the Achilles Heel of the global . EVs have already avoided equivalent of 70 pct of Iran's exports, and could do more.