From a skeet by Lauri Myllyvirta
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
Demand for main petrochemicals [however], measured in ethylene equivalent, grew 8% - surging plastics and chemical production continues, with lots of new capacity coming online at the end of the five-year plan. Import substitution plays a part but cannot account for most of the growth.
I've been puzzling over the reported growth in transport fuel production in recent months, which doesn't seem to be accounted for by domestic demand or net exports. The Sinopec data suggests that it's inventory buildup (or under-reported exports?).
China's emissions have either peaked already, or will soon do so. In which case, world emissions will also peak. The decline initially will be small, but it will accelerate because of cheap EVs, solar and batteries. Our task now is to steepen that curve and to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuels.
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| Source: Our world in data |
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