Kicking fossil fuel out of industry

 From Just Have a Think

Gives an interesting perspective of just how fossil fuels are used in industry, and how we can replace almost all uses with green electricity.  As so often, up-front costs are key.  And as always, a decent carbon price would encourage a more rapid transition to carbon-free industry.

There are 4 main "sectors" where we need to de-carbonise, and they each require different solutions.  The emissions from each sector are not equal, but it helps to break down the problem like this.

1.  Electricity generation.  This is, globally, the sector with the biggest share of emissions, but that varies a bit depending on the country.  The solutions here are obvious, and happening, though not as fast as is needed.
2. Transport.  A mixed bag.  Land transport is moving rapidly towards zero carbon; air and sea transport still has a long way to go.
3. Industry.  This includes steel and cement production, and chemicals and paper.  This video discusses various solutions.
4. Food.  A combination of methane emissions by grazing animals, and deforestation to produce beef.  As big as electricity generation by many analyses, but the hardest to reduce, because people have an emotional relationship with their food.  Politicians interfere at their peril, so shy away.  Yet it is abundantly clear that something will have to be done.

Battery powered flights from Washington DC to LA

From Just Have a Think 

Battery technology is developing at breath-taking speed all over the world, but China still leads the way. Now they've created batteries with such high energy density that they're using them to develop a commercial aircraft with a range of 2,000 miles - enough for most commuter flights in the US or Europe. So, has battery chemistry reached yet another previously impossible milestone?

 

As usual, a thoughtful and well-informed video.  The intense competition in batteries in China is driving innovation and cost cutting.

The Noemi amphibious electric seaplane

I've talked about Sweden's Heart Aerospace ES-30, a four-engined electric plane capable of carrying 30 passengers for up to 200 kilometres on battery power and 800 km with hybrid assist.

Elfly's Noemi (for "no emissions") aircraft is a two-engined amphibious seaplane which can carry 9–13 passengers and up to one tonne of cargo for 200 km from city harbour to city harbour, or even, since it is amphibious, from airport to airport, needing only short distances for take-off and landing.  As they say:

City center to island? Easy. Harbor to airport? Not a problem. Sightseeing tours through fjords, natural parks, or cities with strict emission and sound regulations? By design.

With no need for bulky infrastructure, capable of taking advantage of naturally plentiful waterfronts and ubiquitous electricity, we can offer commuting, sightseeing, and cargo solutions that bolster local businesses and ecological resilience alike.

No need to commute to some faraway airport - and back again. Forget the stress of traditional flying and simply board a quiet, smooth flight right from your city harbor.

Born in Norway: A land with more than a thousand fjords and half a million lakes. With most of our population straddling a line between high mountains and the sea, it is difficult, expensive, and environmentally challenging to build adequate infrastructure. Our Noemi seaplane is an effective, non-intrusive solution born from our way of life, capable of reducing hours we’d spend in cars or trains to mere minutes in the air.

Source: Elfly

There are lots of new electric plane start-ups.  Some of them will fail, no doubt.  But this ferment of activity is very encouraging.  Technological advances happen when there is pressure to innovate, and we are clearly seeing that in the electric plane domain.  And as energy density of batteries increases, the range and payload will also increase.   Trans-oceanic flights?  Not yet.  But 200 km plus range will allow you to cross continents by hopping from airport to airport – just as they used to when the range of petrol aircraft was no better than the range of electric planes today.  With zero emissions.

Hybrid-electric plane rakes in $8 billion in orders

From NewAtlas

In all the buzz around eVTOLs, there's still plenty of appetite for more conventional electric planes – especially, it seems, if they make ludicrous amounts of lift, and can take off and land at incredibly slow speeds, using absolutely tiny runways.

Electra's hybrid-electric STOL (short takeoff and landing) aircraft is one such plane. When it hits the market, it'll carry nine passengers, and a pilot, plus luggage, up to 500 miles (805 km) at a cruise speed around 200 mph (322 km/h). It'll run eight electric props along the leading edge of the wings, as well as large flaps hanging from the trailing edges. This allows a "blown lift" aerodynamic effect powerful enough that it'll lift off at a speed of just 35 mph (56 km/h).

And it'll accelerate to that speed quickly – meaning that you can use a runway smaller than a soccer pitch. Electra says it'll operate from airfields as small as 300 x 100 ft (92 x 31 m), and seems to imply that'll fit on the top of some buildings. Either way, it's one-tenth the size of a standard runway, so even if these things won't open up as many spaces as eVTOLs, they'll still be extremely flexible.

Plus, as investors are no doubt pleased to note, it functions more or less as a regular plane, so the path to certification and commercial deployment should be much smoother and easier to navigate, with plenty of precedents and fewer unknowns than the eVTOL teams face.

Electra flew a two-seat prototype in November, as shown in the video above, and it'll continue flight tests as it works on a full-scale nine-seat prototype that's scheduled to fly in 2026. The target date for certification and entry into service is sometime in 2028.

And the market is listening, it seems. Electra says it's taken pre-orders for more than 2,000 aircraft, worth more than US$8 billion. That's considerably higher than the biggest pre-seller in the eVTOL field – Vertical Aerospace, which has 1,500 aircraft pre-sold for a total over $5 billion.

That's pretty fascinating – eSTOL represents a much more conventional approach with far less disruptive, world-changing potential than eVTOLs, which in theory could have us zooming from rooftop to rooftop in and around urban areas within a few years.

But the market likes this small-runway, half-electric, nine-passenger, regional-capable proposition enough to sign $8 billion dollars' worth of pre-orders – eight times as much revenue as Cessna brings in a year, according to Growjo. Seems odd to us, but such are the times! 

Just as with cars, the first commercial electric planes are likely to be hybrids, i.e., they'll have a jet turbine to generate electricity to extend the range.  The engines themselves won't be hybrid.  As battery energy density increases, range will be extended, and eventually the jet turbine will be dispensed with.  Even a hybrid-electric plane will reduce emissions, in some cases by up to 50%.  And of course, on shorter trips, they will be fully electric.  As with Heart Aerospace's ES-30 (which can carry 30 passengers), operating costs will be far below those of a fossil-fuelled plane, so routes to smaller towns will be enabled.  In the case of Electra's plane,  they will also not need to build expensive runways.  Football fields will do!

Heart Aerospace's electric plane

 I've talked about Heart Aerospace's electric planes before

This video gives a nice summary of the whole project, including how the backup jet-engine generator will work.  I hadn't realised just how many serious airlines had placed orders and become shareholders.  Their votes of confidence suggest that this project is viable.

Opinions about solar --- Jenny Chase

From a toot thread by Jenny Chase (who works for BNEF)  My comments are inside square brackets, like this: [...].

Time to make 2023 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread.

If you like these, the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon, comes out very soon (just sent final proofs to publisher!)

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Solar-Power-Finan

It's the book I should have read before trying to get a job in renewable energy. Edition 1 was “too valuable, and entertaining, to be ignored” according to PV Magazine. I rewrote Edition 2 quite a bit after the 2022 energy crisis, and included a lot more batteries and hydrogen.

I did this thread once a year on X, now branching out. You can view the 2022 thread below, and from there it links to 2021, 2019, 2018 and 2017.

https://twitter.com/solar_chase/status

1. To opinions! Solar is the cheapest source of bulk electricity in many countries, and the quickest to deploy, and now you couldn't stop it being built if you wanted to.

The limits to PV build in most places are grid access, permitting, and sometimes installation labour.

2. We don’t need a solar technology breakthrough. Today, solar developers just need a grid connection and permission to sell electricity, and then they’ll be off building solar plants whether it’s a good idea or not.

3. Right now the price of solar modules hits a new record low every week (currently $0.136/W) due to oversupply. Some manufacturers will exit in the next two years.

This is quite normal in this industry, and nobody will learn any lessons from it. Good for buyers, though.

4. Incremental improvements in solar modules continue. 2023 was the move from PERC cell tech (module efficiency ~21.3%) being the standard design, to TOPCon (~22.3%). The average solar module in 2023 was about 21.6% efficient, up from 15.4% (a now-obsolete multicrystalline design) in 2012.

5. In October 2021, when the standard mono module price was 27.3 US cents per W, I said it would "come back down over 1-2 years" (referring to all-time low of 19 cents in summer 2020). Since it’s now 13.6 US cents in normal markets (ie not the US or India), I’m going to say that wasn’t too bad a prediction.

6. India and the US have solar import tariffs, so modules are pricier there (~23 and ~33 cents/W respectively). Both countries are subsidizing local manufacturing capacity. This is a perfectly good strategy as long as it doesn’t slow down their energy transition.

7. Thank goodness we’ve collectively stopped the nonsense of boasting about "lowest ever solar auction prices", most of which were Middle East opaque transfer prices or had other features. PV power prices below $25/MWh unsubsidised are still too low. Solar still does cost money.

8. After grid and land, the next big challenge for PV will be power price cannibalization. Basically, PV plants in one area all generate at the same time. This means that they reduce the price of power at that time, “cannibalizing” their own revenues.

9. High PV build resulting in power price cannibalization also affects other power plants, but not as much as it affects solar, because solar plants generate most at times when solar is pushing the price down most. This will hold back more solar.

10. By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero for a few hours every sunny day. This will be passed on to end consumers, to encourage them to shift power demand to sunny periods by electric vehicle and battery charging, preheating, precooling, etc.

11. It may well be that "negative power prices for a few hours every sunny day, followed by high evening power prices when the sun goes down" is a problem solved by capitalism and batteries.  [In other words, utilities/generators will make money by topping up the batteries at midday and discharging at the evening peak.  This may apply to EV owners too]

12. Utility-scale batteries became a thing much faster than I expected. BNEF's Energy Storage team recorded 16.8GW/32.9GWh of gross energy storage capacity additions worldwide in 2022, and expect 41.9GW/98.6GWh in 2023.

13. Small-scale batteries are a thing too, even though the economics don’t always make much sense. 2023 battery attachment rates – proportion of residential PV buyers who get a battery too – are >70% in Germany and Italy, >50% in Switzerland, >30% in the UK. [Depends of the difference between retail and wholesale electricity prices. For example, I'm paying 50 cents/kWh for electricity from 3 pm to 10 pm, while my feed-in tariff is just 11 cents/kWh]

14. I'm more worried about seasonal intermittency than daily, because there is no way we can build a big enough battery to shift energy from summer to winter. The economics of battery storage are impossible at one cycle a year.  [See my pieces on seasonal storage]

15. We oughtta be building more wind. Seriously, PV will get built anyway, but wind needs help, and wind blows in the dark and in the winter. It doesn’t help that solar pushes down power prices and generates renewable energy credits, which hurts wind farm economics.

16. To put it another way: when you tell an energy future model to optimise a power portfolio for clean power adequacy, it will give you more wind and less solar than when you tell it to optimise a least-cost electricity sector development.

17. BNEF's mid cumulative solar forecast is 5.8TW by 2030, above the 5.3TW that BNEF models that we need to be on a global net-zero-by-2050 high-renewables path. Wind is 1.9TW forecast and 3.6TW net-zero pathway, so a big miss.

18. Hydrogen made with renewable electricity will be used for steel and fertiliser manufacture. Some may be made into ammonia for shipping and aviation fuel. Some may even be burned for power in weeks of low renewables, which is one way to shift energy from summer to winter. [Hydrogen is hard to store and transport---converting H2 to methane via the Sabatier process is prolly a better way to go]

19. ...but sometimes net-zero electricity models want to put in hydrogen to cover weeks of low renewables just because the model isn’t given any other option. Deep decarbonisation models do weird things. It may turn out there are easier pathways in practice.

20. Electrification of transport is far better than biofuels; for example, as Dan Lashof says on this podcast with @drvolts , it would take about 300 acres of farmland to run a petrol car on corn ethanol, vs an electric car running on about one acre of photovoltaics.

https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-going-on-wit


21. Decarbonizing aviation is hard. The CEO of Lufthansa said in September that running its fleet on sustainable aviation fuel made from electricity would take half Germany’s current electricity demand. BNEF thinks this an underestimate.

22. However, BNEF research did track orders for 989 electric aircraft (mostly small ones) as of early 2022. Fingers crossed.

(Paywall source for the 989: https://www.bnef.com/insights/30267 )

 

23. Heatpumps are better for heating homes than hydrogen, but in seasonal climates like northern Europe will exacerbate the seasonal demand and supply mismatch for solar. [Use green methane]

We need to build wind and probably nuclear as well.  [Yes, nuclear in high latitudes may be necessary]

24. Nuclear is safer than coal and climate change, and better than gas unless the gas plants are running very rarely. Batteries should help with the unfavourable ramping economics of nuclear (you *can* turn nuclear plants up and down, but you really don’t want to).  [Nuscale maintains that their SMRs can be easily ramped up and down] 

25. We’re finally getting serious about net zero carbon. Getting that last 10-30% of carbon out will be hard, and require some expensive solutions. The first 70-90% is easy-ish but we're getting on with it.

26. You can be cynical about government and corporate net zero emissions targets if you like, but they're a lot better than no net zero emissions targets.

27. Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. Tell people at parties that in 2022 renewables produced 47% of Germany’s electricity. [South Australia 68% in 2022; should reach ~90% by 2026]

28. The 2022 energy crisis should put most concerns about cost of renewables subsidies to rest; renewable energy saved Europe billions of euros in imported gas, and reduced purchases from Russia. Turns out fossil fuels also cost money, and sometimes, unexpectedly, a lot.

29. Sorry for the German, but this chart is “the development of renewable energies in primary energy consumption in Germany” and it shows a. overall primary energy consumption (not just electricity) falling and b. renewables rising. This pattern is seen in many developed economies.

https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-graf

30. …It would still really help if rich people would stop pissing away carbon for no reason. [Yes]

31. The US Inflation Reduction Act includes a licence to print money for solar manufacturers and hydrogen firms.
It’s good for clean energy, but it's also like hitting the accelerator on a car with the handbrake on. The handbrake is trade barriers, grid and permitting issues.

32. US trade barriers on Chinese solar are great for First Solar, which also receives 17 cents/W for its US manufacturing, and also for southeast Asian firms like Boviet and VSUN, and Indian firms like Waaree and Adani.

33. The supply chain for solar manufacturing should probably be more transparent.

This sentence is also true without the word “solar”.

34. While moving to a circular economy with 100% recycling rates is essential in the long run, it’s not a challenge for PV in particular; few PV panels have been recycled to date only because the vast majority are still in use. It can be done.

35. For 5 years I have been refusing to get excited about perovskites until a perovskite company can disclose a commercial partnership with a named major module manufacturer. They have now. Still not excited. Just big manufacturers trying to look like they have an edge, I reckon.

36. Europe will support its solar manufacturing industry with grants, but not with trade barriers. This makes sense. The grant-backed factories are small, but are insurance against a huge disruption to the international supply chain.

37. Solar manufacturing is a horrible business to be in. Competition is vicious, the newest factories have the best tech. Older manufacturers carry heavy debt for factories rapidly becoming obsolete.

38. Floating solar is a thing, but it’s not a new tech. It’s solar onna boat.

It’s mostly about having a place to put the modules and, when it’s on a hydro dam reservoir, a grid connection right there. Grid connections are like gold dust.

39. Agrivoltaics, likewise, is solar onna field.

PV only has synergies with some crops. Competition for light and restricted mechanical access to crops are often problems. Study is needed to avoid just subsidised bad PV and bad farming in the same place. 

40. Batteries for residential solar systems are becoming standard offers. Frankly some of the sales claims are of indifferent veracity and the current software isn’t up to economically optimising when batteries charge and discharge. Buyer, be aware you may not save a lot of money.

41. Also get your rooftop solar system built when you have scaffolding up for something else, 'cos scaffolding is expensive. Ideally build it when you’re building the roof, there will never be a better time. Rooftop solar mandates are good and should be more common.  [We don't use scaffolding in Oz]

42. Anyone buying a new internal combustion car now is pretty silly. EVs aren’t the answer to everything – especially congestion of cities – but they do use much less energy and, with flexibility, can support the grid.

43. If you get a battery and a solar system, pay attention to when it charges and discharges and what power costs at those times! Everyone needs a hobby.

(We need better control software for residential solar and storage to use consumer flexibility to support the grid. Norway has it already, houses pay a price linked to the current spot price of electricity and you can set an app to charge your electric car when it expects to be cheapest in the next x hours!)

44. Very few people who are not solar project financiers understand tax treatment for solar projects (I don’t) and it’s important enough to make most calculated LCOEs irrelevant to power purchase prices.

45. Solar thermal tower and heliostat designs, especially with molten salt storage, are still not working very well. We might even end up using molten salt for multi-day and seasonal storage... but heat it with PV.  [Vast Solar in South Australia may be different]

46. Solar plant operation and maintenance in desert environments will prove more challenging than PV project stakeholders currently expect. Climate risk from hurricanes, hailstorms, fire and floods is on the rise for solar as for everything else.

47. Traded electricity wholesale markets are the worst way of deciding how to dispatch energy resources, except for all the others that have been tried.

48. Many solar project developers complaining their problem is 'finance' are being disingenuous. Their problem is, their project is rubbish and they cannot convince anyone otherwise. This is not just a solar thing.

49. Auctions for renewable power are getting a lot more complex, and that’s good. India’s 24/7 auctions and China’s energy megabases are a fascinating way to try to solve grid issues by co-locating solar, wind, storage and even fossil plants.

50. South Africa will hopefully be a case study of a major market where solar helped to solve a crippling power crisis. About 5GW of solar will be installed this year, much of it on homes and businesses. [The Zimbabwe model is worth looking at]

51. Watch Nigeria, which recently removed subsidies on gasoline and hence made the country’s ~50GW of private generators much more expensive, for how cheap solar and batteries could play out in other African countries. Could they really leapfrog straight to clean power?

52. There is enough land for lots of solar. There are enough golf courses in the U.S. for about 370GW, ffs. There’s also loads and loads of roofs, so let’s see those who oppose ground-mounted solar support higher-cost roof-mounted solar. [Over the last 12 months, rooftop solar has provided 20% of South Australia's electricity, and utility-scale solar just 6%]

(sorry going off on a slightly tangential rant about how hard my job is)

53. Forecasting solar build is hard when people actually pay for the results and therefore want them country by country. It’s easy when you just extrapolate a global line, but that is not terribly useful for setting corporate strategy, and makes your clients yell at you.

54. You want to forecast a terawatt-per-year solar market by 2030, you go for it! (We have 707GW/year in 2030). Fair warning, you’ll have to forecast solar build in markets that currently have no plausible plans, and where country experts will tell you it will never happen.

55. In 2017, my analysis team covered 42 countries which were significant solar markets. Now we attempt to cover 146, which is a pain, and we keep finding ones we have missed.

56. Also have I mentioned how bad the data is?! Increasingly nobody knows where the bloomin’ solar panels are being installed. We have Customs data on how much is leaving China, and it’s a *lot*, but it is often unclear where it went.

57. While in theory you can see said solar panels from SPACE, in practice it is far harder to count them by machine learning than you might think. You can waste a lot of time preparing training data and get clearly inaccurate results for area covered. I am told.

58. If you record PV capacity and only have room for one figure, record MW(DC), the module capacity. It tells you more about what the project will produce, how much land it needs, and what it will cost than MW(AC), which is just the size of the wire.

I will die on this hill.

Also btw if you want to estimate a rough capacity factor for an entire country, just use an insolation map, not a really hyperspecific tool. PVGIS has some great ones. {Link here]

That's all, apologies for spamming Energy Mastodon.

If you would like a less flippant primer on solar and the future of decarbonization (though it still has jokes), do check out edition 2 of Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. Also if you’re a journalist wanting to review an advance copy of edition 2, please let me know. Shouldn't be long now, I approved the final proof!

Sulphur-selenium solid state battery

There is a ferment of new and advancing technology in batteries. Some will go on to be commercially successful; others will not.



From CleanTechnica

Most of us have little idea what NASA — the National Aeronautics and Space Administration — has been doing since the Apollo moon missions ended. We know it is responsible for Tang and space blankets, but what has it done for us lately?

It turns out, the “aeronautics” part of its mission includes advances in airplanes, and that means finding alternatives to conventional fuels that will leave fewer emissions behind during flight. As any EV advocate knows, vehicles powered by batteries and electricity are far more efficient than conventional cars powered by last century internal combustion technology. But batteries are heavy and bulky — two words that aeronautical engineers never want to hear.

But what if batteries had two or three times more power than today’s best lithium-ion batteries? And what if they also had no liquid or semi-liquid electrolyte inside that could burst into flames? “Fire” and “airplane” are two words that should never be used in the same sentence.

The promise of battery-powered flight is very much on the minds of airline executives who are under pressure to slash emissions from their flights. It also fires the imagination of those who want to bring air taxis into commercial use. The latest news from NASA should be of interest to both groups.

For years, NASA has been researching battery-powered flight as part of its Solid-state Architecture Batteries for Enhanced Rechargeability and Safety program. “SABERS continues to exceed its goals,” said Rocco Viggiano, principal investigator for SABERS at NASA’s Glenn Research Center in Cleveland in a press release last year. “We’re starting to approach this new frontier of battery research that could do so much more than lithium-ion batteries can. The possibilities are pretty incredible.”

Viggiano says a battery is like a bucket that stores energy. More energy storage is like having a larger bucket. NASA says its sulfur selenium prototype battery has an energy density of 500 watt-hours per kilogram, which is about double that of conventional lithium-ion batteries.

But aircraft need enormous amounts of power to get off the ground. Until recently, lithium-ion batteries were able to discharge their stored power much more quickly than solid-state batteries could. Now the SABERS researchers, with help from partners at Georgia Tech, have found a way to make their solid-state batteries discharge ten times faster than when the research started. Then they achieved another five-fold increase after that. So now they have a larger bucket that can be emptied rapidly when needed.

That bucket is also up to 40% lighter because of more innovations discovered by the SABERS team. Their sulfur selenium battery cells can be stacked one on top of the other with no casing around them. Eliminating the casing around individual cells means more energy storage within a given amount of space — a huge advantage when trying to fit batteries into the structure of an aircraft. It also means the cooling systems for the cells can be smaller and lighter.

There are other advantages as well. The massive amounts of energy needed at the beginning of any flight can cause temperatures inside battery cells to spike. The solid-state sulfur selenium batteries from NASA are able to withstand temperatures twice as hot as conventional lithium-ion batteries. In addition, they are less affected by changes in pressure, which occur rapidly after takeoff and while landing. So far, it’s all good news for electric flight advocates.

Are there any drawbacks? Cost is a big factor. And the testing protocols before new components get approved for use in commercial aircraft are far more rigorous than they are for ordinary vehicles.

Electric air taxi cleared for test flights

From New Atlas

The first production prototype has rolled off Joby Aviation's production line in Marina, California, and the FAA has cleared it to begin flight tests with a special airworthiness certificate. It's likely to be the first eVTOL delivered to a customer.

With upwards of US$2 billion in funding, more than a decade's worth of development and an impressive number of high-speed, long-distance, full-transition test flights behind it, Joby remains the leader in the race to commercial electric air taxi services.

Its S4 aircraft is a five-seat beauty that can take off and land vertically using six large propellers distributed along its wings and V-tail. It then transitions to efficient cruise flight by tilting all its props forward, and can fly more than 150 miles (240 km) at speeds over 200 mph (322 km/h).

Vastly quieter than helicopters, eVTOLs are also projected to be much cheaper as well as having zero emissions. It's hoped that once they're in full commercial service, they'll democratize vertical commuting, being produced in large numbers and offering a fast, cheap way to get across town and between towns over the top of traffic.

First, they'll need FAA type certification. And to be clear, that's not what's just been announced. A special airworthiness certificate is simply a clearance to begin limited flight testing in a single aircraft. Full type certification is still slated for sometime in 2024, and entry into service for 2025, but this could take significantly longer, since in order to begin commercial operations, these eVTOLs need to prove a similar level of safety to that of commercial airliners.

This prototype is destined for the US Air Force, where upon delivery in 2024 at Edwards Air Force Base, it's likely to become the first eVTOL ever delivered to a customer. The Air Force has contributed "up to US$131 million" to Joby's development program through its Agility Prime program, which seeks to accelerate development of these futuristic aircraft, both for potential military uses and to develop America's soverign capability in an emerging technology area that many hope will change the way our cities work.

The pilot production line in Marina has been set up with the assistance of Toyota, Joby's largest external shareholder to the tune of a $400-million investment. Aircraft have never been manufactured at the kind of scale projected for these air taxis, and Toyota is contributing its mass serial production expertise from the automotive industry to the project.

Manufactured "in accordance with a released design and built according to a complete implementation of a quality management system," the prototype will soon begin flight tests. We're not on the home stretch yet, but eVTOL companies continue to make steady progress.

Heart Aerospace's updated electric plane

Heart Aerospace's ES-30 electric plane.

I first talked about this new electric plane here. The design has been changed to increase passenger capacity from 19 to 30, and to increase range by adding a hybrid option.  These electric planes have engines which cost a 20th of turboprop engines, and the planes are 50% cheaper to operate.

From Heart Aerospace's website:

Swedish electric airplane maker Heart Aerospace today unveiled significant design updates to its first electric aircraft and confirmed Air Canada, one of North America’s largest airlines and Saab, the Swedish aerospace and defense company, as new minority shareholders.

The new airplane design, called the ES-30, is a regional electric airplane with a capacity of 30 passengers and it replaces the company’s earlier 19-seat design, the ES-19. It is driven by electric motors powered by batteries, which allows the airplane to operate with zero emissions and low noise.

Air Canada and Saab have each invested USD 5 million in Heart Aerospace. In addition to its investment, Air Canada has also placed a purchase order for 30 ES-30 aircraft.

“We are thrilled to have two such strong partners as Saab and Air Canada join our mission to electrify regional air travel. Growing up in Sweden, Saab is synonymous with aerospace, and our partnership will not only support our programme, but help us to become a part of the proud Swedish aerospace heritage,” said Anders Forslund, founder and CEO of Heart Aerospace. “Air Canada is a strategically important partner with one of the world’s largest networks operated by regional turboprops, and as a progressive, future leaning company.”

“Air Canada is very pleased to partner with Heart Aerospace on the development of this revolutionary aircraft. We have been working hard with much success to reduce our footprint, but we know that meeting our net-zero emissions goals will require new technology such as the ES-30. We have every confidence that the team at Heart Aerospace has the expertise to deliver on the ES-30’s promise of a cleaner and greener aviation future,” said Michael Rousseau, President and Chief Executive of Air Canada.

The ES-30 has a comfortable three-abreast flat-floor cabin seating and it features a galley and a lavatory. Cabin stowage and overhead bins will add to the large external baggage and cargo compartment and provide airlines with network flexibility.

The airplane will also include a reserve-hybrid configuration, consisting of two turbo generators powered by sustainable aviation fuel. The reserve-hybrid system is installed to secure reserve energy requirements without cannibalizing battery range, and it can also be used during cruise on longer flights to complement the electrical power provided by the batteries.

This gives the airplane a fully electric range of 200 kilometers, an extended range of 400 kilometers with 30 passengers, and flexibility to fly up to 800 kilometers with 25 passengers, all-inclusive of typical airline reserves.

“The ES-30 is an electric airplane that the industry can actually use. We have designed a cost efficient airplane that allows airlines to deliver good service on a wide range of routes,” said Anders Forslund, founder and CEO of Heart Aerospace. “With the ES-30 we can start cutting emissions from air travel well before the end of this decade and the response from the market has been fantastic.”

“This underlines our commitment to innovative technology and solutions for sustainable aviation. Heart is a pioneer within commercial electric aviation and we look forward to contributing to the future of aviation with our experience of developing solutions at the forefront of technology,” says Micael Johansson, Saab’s President and CEO.

Previous orders for Heart Aerospace’s ES-19 electric airplane, placed by United Airlines and Mesa Air Group for a total of 200 electric aircraft with an option for an additional 100 planes, are reconfirmed for the updated ES-30 design.

“From the beginning Heart and United have been on the same page – with an acute focus on safety, reliability, and sustainability. Heart’s exciting new design – which includes expanded passenger capacity from 19 to 30 seats, and a state-of-the-art reserve-hybrid engine – is the type of revolutionary thinking that will bring true innovation to aviation,” said Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines.

In addition to those commitments, many of the ES-19 letters of intent (LOI) holders have already updated their respective letters to reflect the ES-30. These include the Nordic airlines Braathens Regional Airlines (BRA), Icelandair and SAS as well as New Zealand’s Sounds Air. Rockton, a Swedish-based lessor who has made it their mission to focus on sustainable solutions for the Industry, has just signed an LOI with [HA] for up to 40 airplanes.

In total, Heart Aerospace has LOIs for 96 ES-30s. [This is presumably in addition to the orders of 100 each from United and Mesa airlines.]

The ES-30 is a cost efficient airplane that, on top of significant fuel savings, is cheaper to operate than a larger turboprop due to its electric propulsion. The airplane has also been designed to accommodate battery technology evolution, which will increase its fully electric range and make it even more cost efficient over time.

The ES-30 is expected to enter into service in 2028.  [This has slipped from the initial 2026 deadline]

Adding a hybrid option makes the ES-30 more flexible than the ES-19.    The problem now is sustainable fuel.   But the costs of green hydrogen/green methane (and therefore also green jetfuel) are falling fast as the costs of renewable electricity declines.  The 800 km extended range means that the plane can be used on most regional air routes.  And by 2028, the energy density of batteries will have increased by another 3.5 times, if past trends continue.   Even if conventional fossil-derived jetfuel is used for the range-extending turbines in the hybrid version, it will still reduce emissions from air travel.

Super climate action tipping points

When I saw the headline, I thought of climate tipping points. But these are tipping points in things which will reduce and reverse emissions.

With wind and solar and batteries and EVs, there were steep learning curves. Initially, the new technologies were very expensive, and volumes produced/sold were very low. In fact, they had to be subsidised at first, with wind and solar receiving high feed-in tariffs and EVs getting tax refunds or subsidies. But the learning curve processes worked. As production expanded, costs fell, which allowed sales to increase which led to further cost declines, and so it went. Today, wind and solar are the cheapest source of bulk energy. In Australia, early and vigorous support for rooftop solar led to precipitous declines costs as everybody in the system (electricians, local councils, the grid managers, panel/inverter importers) learnt how to install solar panels, connect them to the grid, etc. Today, rooftop solar is widespread and "normal" in Australia.

I have seen the argument that if we had started the subsidies for wind and solar and EVS earlier, we'd have started moving down the learning curve earlier, and we'd be closer to a zero-carbon grid. And I think that's true. What the Guardian's piece suggests is that we can repeat this process with other sources of emissions. Which makes a lot of sense (try telling that to the Right, though)

Three “super-tipping points” for climate action could trigger a cascade of decarbonisation across the global economy, according to a report.

Relatively small policy interventions on electric cars, plant-based alternatives to meat and green fertilisers would lead to unstoppable growth in those sectors, the experts said.

But the boost this would give to battery and hydrogen production would mean crucial knock-on benefits for other sectors including energy storage and aviation.

Urgent emissions cuts are needed to avoid irreversible climate breakdown and the experts say the super-tipping points are the fastest way to drive global action, offering “plausible hope” that a rapid transition to a green economy can happen in time.

The tipping points occur when a zero-carbon solution becomes more competitive than the existing high-carbon option. More sales lead to cheaper products, creating feedback loops that drive exponential growth and a rapid takeover. The report, launched at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the three super-tipping points would cut emissions in sectors covering 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Speedy action is vital to help avoid triggering disastrous tipping points in the climate system. Scientists said recently that global heating had driven the world to the brink of multiple tipping points with global impacts, including the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap and a key current in the north Atlantic.

“With time running out, there is a need for action to be targeted,” said Mark Meldrum, at the consultancy Systemiq, which produced the report with partners including the University of Exeter, UK. Each super-tipping point crossed raises the chance of crossing others, he said. “That could set off a cascade to steer us away from a climate catastrophe.”

The tipping point for electric vehicles is very close with sales soaring, the report says. Setting dates around the world for the end of sales of fossil-fuel powered vehicles, such as the 2030 date set for new vehicles by the UK and 2035 in China, drives further growth, the report adds.

This scale-up means the batteries used will become cheaper and these can be deployed as storage for wind and solar power, further accelerating the growth of renewables. More green energy means lower electricity bills, in turn making heat pumps even more cost-effective.

The second super-tipping point is setting mandates for green fertilisers, to replace current fertilisers, which are produced from fossil gas. Ammonia is a key ingredient and can be made from hydrogen produced by renewable energy, combined with nitrogen from the air.

Governments requiring a growing proportion of fertiliser to be green will drive a scale-up and cost reductions in the production of green hydrogen, the report says. That then supports long-distance aviation and shipping, and steel production, which will rely on hydrogen to end their carbon emissions. Mandates are being considered with India, for example, targeting 5% green fertiliser production by 2023–24 and 20% by 2027–28.

The third super-tipping point is helping alternative proteins to beat animal-based proteins on cost, while at least matching them on taste. Meat and dairy cause about 15% of global emissions. Public procurement of plant-based meat and dairy replacements by government departments, schools and hospitals could be a powerful lever, the report says.

Increasing uptake would cut the emissions from cattle and reduce the destruction of forests for pasture land. A 20% market share by 2035 would mean 400m-800m hectares of land would no longer be needed for livestock and their fodder, equivalent to 7-15% of the world’s farmland today, the report estimated. That land could then be used for the restoration of forests and wildlife, removing CO2 from the air.

Tipping points already passed within countries include electric car sales in Norway and the plunge in coal-powered electricity in the US in the past decade.

“We need to find and trigger positive socioeconomic tipping points if we are to limit the risk from damaging climate tipping points,” said Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter. “This non-linear way of thinking about the climate problem gives plausible grounds for hope: the more that gets invested in socioeconomic transformation, the faster it will unfold – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas emissions sooner.”

The same argument potentially applies to things like small modular reactors (SMRs), electric planes, green steel production, etc.  

 

The gorgeous Eviation electric plane

 

I've talked about Eviation's elegant and stylish electric plane before.  This report is from New Atlas

After showing off with some extravagant runway wheelies last week, Alice, the "world's first all-electric commuter aircraft," lifted off overnight on a historic first flight. It's another major milestone toward zero-emissions medium-range air travel.

Alice took off at 7.10 am local time from Grant County International Airport in Washington state, and made a short, 8-minute circuit, reaching an altitude of 3,500 ft (1,067 m) before coming in and touching down.

"Today we embark on the next era of aviation – we have successfully electrified the skies with the unforgettable first flight of Alice," said Eviation President and CEO Gregory Davis. "People now know what affordable, clean and sustainable aviation looks and sounds like for the first time in a fixed-wing, all-electric aircraft. This ground-breaking milestone will lead innovation in sustainable air travel, and shape both passenger and cargo travel in the future."

It is indeed a significant moment, although there's a way to go yet. The Alice we see flying in the video below is still an experimentally registered prototype, rather than a fully certified production aircraft. Eviation still has to run it through a full and rigorous flight test regime, and jump through the many hoops of FAA certification, not just for the aircraft and all its systems, but also for the company itself as a design organization and a production facility. The company hopes to have this all squared away and get Alice into service by 2026.

Alice's spec sheet has become a fair bit less impressive over the last year or so as well – when we looked at it in May 2021, this nine-seat luxury machine was running an interesting three-prop propulsion system and a V-tail, and promising 506-mile (814 km) flights to a charge. Now, the tail's a T-shape, there are just two props, the claimed range has dwindled to just 288 miles (463 km), and the max takeoff weight (MTOW) has burgeoned from 14,700 lb (6,668 kg) to 18,400 lb (8,346 kg). On the positive side, the max speed is now up from 253 mph (407 km/h) to 299 mph (481 km/h).

The reduced range in particular is going to sting, as it'll significantly cut down the number of operating routes Alice can handle. But Eviation says this machine's quiet, zero-emissions flight, and its extremely low operating costs compared to turboprops or light jets, will make a good case for it in the commuter and cargo markets.

Eviation electric plane gets first large order

 I've talked before about Eviation's electric plane.  

Now Massachusetts-based Cape Air has signed an order for 75 of these all-electric planes.  Electric planes for short-haul flights are going mainstream, partly because they're so much cheaper to run than jets or jet-prop planes.  Battery energy density is still not high enough for long-distance flights, but short-distance trips are now feasible.

From Geek Wire

A Seattle-area venture called Eviation has struck a deal with Massachusetts-based Cape Air for the purchase of 75 Eviation Alice all-electric planes.

The letter of intent follows up on a claim that was made back in 2019 by Eviation’s then-CEO, Omer Bar-Yohay, who said Cape Air would be his company’s first customer. At the time, Bar-Yohay said the list price for the Alice commuter aircraft would be $4 million per plane — but Eviation said it’s not releasing financial details about the Cape Air deal.

Bar-Yohay left Eviation in February, citing “a longstanding disagreement” with the company’s main shareholder, Singapore-based Clermont Group. Longtime aerospace executive Gregory Davis took over as interim CEO for the privately held company, which is headquartered in Arlington, Wash.

Eviation has begun ground tests of an Alice prototype, and those tests haven’t always gone perfectly — which is to be expected with a totally new type of aircraft. In February, Eviation said Alice’s first flight test would take place “in the upcoming weeks,” but the company now says it plans to reach that milestone this summer.

Alice will be powered by two 850-hp electric motors made by MagniX, a Clermont Group company that’s based in Everett, Wash., close by Eviation’s HQ. It’s designed to carry up to nine passengers and two crew members on zero-emission flights ranging as far as 440 nautical miles (500 statute miles) on a single charge.

If all goes according to plan, Eviation aims to have the production version of the Alice aircraft flying in 2024, with deliveries to follow certification activities.

As a commuter airline, Cape Air is in the sweet spot when it comes to the market for Alice. Although the company is based in Massachusetts, it serves nearly 40 cities in the U.S. (including cities in eastern Montana) and in the Caribbean.

“Truly sustainable aviation not only reduces the impact of air travel on the environment but also makes business sense,” Jessica Pruss, vice president of sales at Eviation, said in a news release. “We are proud to support Cape Air, a recognized leader in regional air travel, to chart a new path in delivering innovative solutions that benefit airline operators, passengers, communities and society.”

Eviation also envisions Alice being used for cargo shipments and for executive business travel. Last year, DHL Express said it was ordering a dozen Alice eCargo airplanes.

Several other ventures are pursuing approaches to electric aviation. MagniX, for example, plans to retrofit seaplanes operated by Vancouver, B.C.-based Harbour Air and is working with other partners as well. Last year, MagniX won a $74.3 million contract from NASA to demonstrate electric propulsion technologies for aircraft.

Meanwhile, Amazon and Alaska Air are investing in ZeroAvia, a venture that’s developing a hydrogen-electric hybrid airplane and is setting up a research and development facility in Everett. Amazon’s Climate Pledge Fund has also provided funding for another electric aviation startup called Beta Technologies.

DHL chooses Eviation electric plane

 I did a blog post about the beautiful Eviation electric plane here. 

From CNBC

DHL Express announced Tuesday that it’s purchasing 12 electric cargo planes from start-up Eviation for use in U.S. package delivery as part of a plan to reduce carbon emissions.

“We’re going to spread them out in between the West Coast and the East Coast. These Eviation electric planes will replace some of our current smaller feeder aircraft that we have in those markets,” said Mike Parra, CEO of DHL Express Americas. “This lines up with our commitment to sustainability and the spirit of where we’re heading to a net zero emissions by 2050.”

Eviation is a start-up focused on electric fixed-wing airplanes for cargo and passengers. The Washington state-based company is building the Alice, a plane capable of carrying 2,500 pounds at a maximum speed of 250 mph and go 500 miles on a single charge. Charging time takes around 30 minutes, roughly the same time it takes to put fuel into a similar-sized traditional airplane, according to DHL Express, a division of Germany’s Deutsche Post DHL Group.

“DHL represents a very close-to-the-ideal customer for us,” said Eviation founder and CEO Omer Bar-Yohay. “They have the right footprint in the sense that they use planes of similar size to move parcels around today. This kind of goes hand in hand with what we’re doing at Eviation. We’re building Alice to fit existing business models, to fit existing airports, and to really work within the network of the operator.”

DHL’s U.S. business is primarily focused on importing goods purchased from companies overseas and delivering to business and consumer customers in America. The Alice planes will transport packages from major hubs to smaller markets within range, often referred to as middle mile. DHL Express and Eviation expect the planes to be used for package delivery by 2024.

Mesa Airlines has also signed up for 100 electric planes

 In the piece I wrote about United's deal to buy 100 electric ES-19s, I forgot to mention that United's associate, Mesa Airlines, is also contracting to buy 100 ES-19s.

From Mesa Airlines's website

An Opportunity for Reintroduction

It all started in Farmington, New Mexico, at Four Corners Regional Airport. Our founder, Larry Risley, and his wife Janie saw the potential for regular commercial air service between Farmington and Albuquerque. What started as a small air shuttle, blossomed into a regional airline with 45 flights a day, 5 destinations, and certified 19 seat airplanes. With an average fare of $70, these flights were accessible to the communities they served.

Mesa was the world’s largest operator of 19-seat aircraft and has unparalleled expertise in connecting smaller communities to the national transportation system. Over the past 30 years, as the economics of operating 19-seat aircraft became uneconomic, operators exited markets and practically all 19 seat aircraft have been withdrawn from commercial service. Today there are no 19-seat aircraft operating in scheduled passenger service in the United States. 

Working with Heart brings huge potential for the regional industry and Mesa. Hundreds of communities, and hundreds of thousands of passengers can once again look forward  air transportation and reliable service, with the added benefit of this travel occurring on an environmentally friendly electric aircraft.   Operating Heart’s new ES-19 aircraft presents an opportunity to not only reintroduce Mesa to those communities but serve new communities, and make air travel accessible to markets that have been neglected over the past three decades.

Mesa to Invest in Heart Aerospace and Orders 100 All-Electric Aircraft

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MESA) today announces that it has made an investment in electric aircraft company, Heart Aerospace (“Heart”), a company that plans to be the first to produce the world’s first electric nineteen-seat ES-19 aircraft, alongside Breakthrough Energy Ventures and United Airlines Ventures. Subject to certain terms, Mesa also plans to add 100 ES-19 aircraft to its regional fleet, revolutionizing air service to small markets as one of the first network air carriers to help decarbonize air travel through the use of electric aircraft. This announcement expands on the efforts that Mesa has made in the emerging transition to electric-powered flight with airlines such as United Airlines – first with the announcement of an investment in Archer Aviation and its eVTOL aircraft, and now with the ES-19, a fully electric nineteen-seat regional aircraft.

“As we continue to explore opportunities in electric aviation, we are excited to expand our efforts to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels in the airline industry and are proud to work with Heart to launch the world’s first electric regional aircraft. Mesa intends to continue its expansion through the introduction of revolutionary technology that benefits our passengers and the environment. We are delighted to take this important step in the de-carbonization of air travel through our co-investment with Breakthrough Energy Ventures and United Airlines Ventures in Heart”, said Jonathan Ornstein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “These technological innovations are good for the environment, will expand the national transportation system, and provide significant growth opportunities for Mesa. We look forward to reconnecting with communities and passengers we previously served.”

Anders Forslund, CEO of Heart, added, “Having Mesa as a partner will be an invaluable asset for us. They know the business of operating nineteen-seaters like few others, and they bring unique operational insights that we feed directly into the design of our plane. Mesa has decades of experience in operating nineteen-seaters, so we do not need to reinvent the wheel. We couldn’t be more excited about reconnecting America together with Mesa.”

Mesa was the world’s largest operator of 19-seat aircraft and has unparalleled expertise in connecting smaller communities to the national transportation system. Over the past 30 years, as the economics of operating 19-seat aircraft became uneconomic, operators exited markets and practically all 19 seat aircraft have been withdrawn from commercial service. For example, Farmington, New Mexico, a rural community bordering the Navajo Nation, previously had over 30 daily departures to 7 destinations. Today, Farmington has no scheduled passenger service. The reduced operating costs of the ES-19 aircraft hold the promise of revitalizing travel options that are currently not economically viable with traditional aircraft. Hundreds of communities will benefit from new or enhanced service, and hundreds of thousands of passengers can once again look forward to safe and reliable air transportation, with the added benefit of flying on an environmentally friendly zero-emissions aircraft.

Heart Aerospace aims to be the first to build electric aircraft for commercial passenger service. This 19 seater aircraft, the ES-19, is driven entirely by electric motors and batteries and is expected to have a range of approximately 250 miles. Based in Göteborg, Sweden, Heart Aerospace anticipates delivering the first ES-19 for commercial use by 2026. Importantly, due to the differences between turbine-powered aircraft and electric aircraft, the passenger experience onboard the ES-19 will be significantly improved over aircraft of the past. The ES-19 aircraft is quieter than its turboprop counterparts, with less vibration and noise. The low noise at taxi, take-off, and landing improves the experience not just for passengers, but also for those who live close to airports.

The ES-19 will be practicable for small airports because its running and maintenance costs are 1/100th that of comparable jet-prop airliners.  With two lead customers, each contracted to buy 100 planes, it will now be easy for Heart Aerospace to sign up other customers.  This is the real thing--the first breakthrough into the commercial markets for an electric plane.  

United Airlines to acquire 100 electric planes

 

From ClimateCrocks

United Airlines on Tuesday said it will buy 100 ES-19 aircraft from the Sweden-based electric aircraft startup Heart Aerospace. 

The Chicago carrier will invest an undisclosed amount in the new airplanes, which must first meet United’s safety, business and operating requirements.

Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures will also invest an undisclosed amount as will Arizona’s Mesa Airlines, which will add 100 ES-19 aircraft to its fleet.

“Electric aircraft are happening now—the technology is already here,” CEO of Heart Aerospace Anders Forslund said in the release. “We couldn’t be prouder to be partnering with United, Mesa and BEV on taking our ES-19 aircraft to market. I can’t imagine a stronger coalition of partners to advance our mission to electrify short-haul air travel.”

The ES-19, a 19-seat electric airplane, has the potential to fly customers up to 250 miles. 

The ES-19 will be larger than its all-electric competitors and will operate on the same types of batteries used in electric cars.  By using electric motors instead of jet engines, and batteries instead of jet fuel, Heart’s ES-19 aircraft will have zero operational emissions.

The ES-19 could hit the market as early as 2026.

From Heart Aerospace's website:

Electric aircraft have zero emissions and offer a comfortable, quiet flight experience. The significantly reduced direct operating costs also enable electric aircraft to develop new routes, or restore legacy routes, that were not profitable with gas turbine powered aircraft. This offers a unique opportunity to improve regional air mobility and connectivity for everyone.

The ES-19 is much quieter than any fossil-fuel aircraft, and the engine vibrations that can be felt on smaller aircraft are virtually eliminated. The aircraft is fully fly-by-wire, and actively compensates for turbulence, ensuring a smoother ride in all weather conditions. The all-metal fuselage is fully pressurised.

Our first-generation aircraft will have a maximum range of up to 400 km (250 miles), which will increase as battery energy densities improve.

Our electric motor is about 20 times less expensive than a similarly-size[d] turboprop, and about a 100 times less expensive than the cheapest turbofan. More importantly, maintenance costs are more than 100 times lower. These lower operating costs will make 19-seater electric aircraft competitive to 70-seater turboprop aircraft. 

Air travel contributes to about 2% of global CO2 emissions, and emissions are growing exponentially at a rate of about 5% a year. Some analysts predict that by 2050, about 25% of global CO2 emissions will come from aviation alone. Fossil-fuel aircraft also emit NOx, soot, water vapour and other  greenhouse gases. According to recent studies, the overall effect of these emissions can be triple of those of CO2 alone.

While it’s impossible to predict the future, it is unlikely that we will be able to cross the Atlantic on battery-powered passenger planes any time soon. However, electric aircraft will play an important role in decarbonising short-haul air travel. 

About 9% of global emissions [from air transport] are from routes under 400 km, which we believe we can start to address already by the middle of this decade. Our long term goal is to electrify all short-haul travel, i.e. all trips under 1300 km, by the year 2050. Today, these trips account for about 33% of global emissions. The total emissions from air travel is expected to rise to 2.8 Gigatons by 2050.

Electric aircraft will not be viable for long-haul routes anytime soon, and therefore, it is only part of the solution for decarbonising air travel. Hydrogen and biofuels can be looked to for these applications.

However, what sets electric aircraft apart are the unit economics. Whereas biofuels today are much more expensive than fossil fuels, and hydrogen aircraft would require a whole new infrastructure and operations, electric aircraft present a major cost advantage to airlines. Further, the ubiquity of the electricity network makes it relatively easy for airports to install chargers.

The ES-19 is designed to be an electric STOL (Short Take-Off and Landing) aircraft  It is designed to operate from runways as short as 750m and will have steep approach capability.

Charge time is largely dependent on the available charging infrastructure but with the recommended charging, we can charge an ES-19 in less than 40 minutes for an average mission.

Heart’s ES-19 will have a similar acquisition price and offer direct operating costs (energy and maintenance) 50 – 70% lower than competing fossil fuel powered aircraft. In the full aircraft context, battery acquisition costs are less than 2% of the aircraft price. This is very different to road EV’s where batteries comprise about 30% of the car cost. Battery cycle amortisation costs are less than 10% of the ES-19s direct operating cost.

Battery costs have fallen by almost 10x since 2010. According to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF), “Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh.” BNEF cites a longer term forecast of batteries costing $61/kWh by 2030.

In our direct operating costs-model, we assume 1000 cycles [battery life]. This is a slight increase from the electric aircraft certified today – the Pipistrel Velis Electro – which has a cycle life of 800 cycles. However, we do think it’s achievable to reach 3000 cycles, or even more, depending on the specific route. Even so, if an aircraft is used ten times a day, batteries will need to be replaced on a yearly basis.

Meanwhile, long-distance flights may well be carried out using suborbital Starship, fuelled with green methane, produced by the Sabatier process, and small short-range electric planes will be used to fly people to the spaceport.

See this related article:

Mesa Airlines has also signed up for 100 electric planes

Hyundai air taxis by 2025?

From Green Car Reports

 

Hyundai believes its first electric air taxis could lift off by 2025—years earlier than expected—even as regulation for the completely new aviation format lags.

"Air taxi" has become a catchall term for small vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) aircraft designed for use in cities as an airborne alternative to conventional ride-hailing services. Several companies—including multiple automakers—have expressed interest in air taxis and companion mobility services, but the technical challenges are significant.

Despite those potential challenges, which include lack of regulatory clarity and the need to certify a totally new type of aircraft for safe operation, Hyundai global COO José Muñoz said at a Reuters conference that the company is ahead of its previously-stated timetable for launching electric air taxis.

Muñoz, who is also CEO of Hyundai North America, previously said air taxis would begin operation in 2028, but now believes 2025 is possible, according to Reuters.

The air taxis will be battery-powered, and will be designed to carry five or six people from city centers to airports, according to the report. Muñoz told Reuters that transporting cargo is a possibility as well. It's unclear if there will be any technological overlap between air taxis and upcoming Hyundai electric cars based on the new E-GMP architecture.

Hyundai launched a dedicated air-mobility division in 2019, led by former NASA engineer Jaiwon Shin. At the time, Hyundai said it would invest $1.5 billion in air taxis by 2025. Last year, the company announced a partnership with Uber to deploy the vehicles, and unveiled a full-scale model at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

The Eviation Alice: a stunning electric plane

 From New Atlas

Washington-based company Eviation is preparing for the first test flights of its gorgeous Alice, an all-electric 9-seat luxury plane with an impressive 440 nautical mile (506-mile, 814-km) range from a single charge of its huge 820-kWh battery pack.

The company says it's just taken delivery of its first electric motor, one of three Magnix Electric Propulsion Units the Alice will use to power its three variable pitch pusher props, one on a pod at the end of each wing and a third on the tail. The latter is designed to accelerate fast-moving air around the fuselage and turn the whole body into a bonus wing surface for extra lift.

The prototype is certainly a striking looking aircraft, all space-age looking with its big v-tail and that tastefully squashed high-lift fuselage. Once everything's all hooked up, it'll carry crew and passengers at cruise speeds up to 253 mph (407 km/h), and Eviation says the low noise output of its electric powertrain will make a solid contribution to the comfort factor in the back.

For any electric aircraft, 506 miles is a pretty solid range figure at this point, and in order to manage that the Alice needs to carry a monstrous 8,200 lb (3,720 kg) of lithium-ion battery – more than half of the aircraft's 14,700-lb (6,668-kg) maximum takeoff weight. It's built from the ground up using lightweight composite materials to compensate.

Eviation says the Alice and other early electrics like it will be the start of a price-driven snowball in the aviation business. Similar to electric cars, they'll likely be more expensive up front than a traditional fuel-burning plane due to the high cost of lithium batteries – but their vastly reduced maintenance and fuel costs will make them a ton cheaper to run. Eviation is betting that it won't take too long before fossil burners are struggling to compete – at least in this size class and for shortish flights of 500 miles (805 km) or less.

The Alice runs three variable-pitch electric props, two on the wing tips and one at the tail designed to accelerate air around the body and develop extra lift