What took sodium batteries so long?

 A fascinating analysis of why sodium-ion batteries are only now coming into widespread use.  Dr Ben Miles discusses the chemistries of lithium- and sodium-ion and how they developed, and why hybrid batteries with lithium-ion and sodium-ion cells might make sense. 

 Also, note this:  CATL (who developed the new sodium-ion batteries) has just received a 60 GWh order for new sodium-ion batteries, equal to 50% of its lithium-ion battery sales last year.   Remember that LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) batteries cost $55-$70/kWh, while sodium-ion are heading for $19/kWh.   And that's not the end of the likely price decline:  CATL thinks they can over time cut the cost to $10/kWh. Sodium-ion batteries also support 10,000 cycles.   In other words, even if you fully charged and discharged it every day, it would still last 27 years. 

And all this has happened in one year, going from laboratory to mass production!

Implication:  as solar prices continue to decline, gas and oil is (again) proved to be volatile and unreliable, and storage costs fall precipitously, wind, solar and storage will be so much cheaper than fossil fuels that they will rapidly replace them. Only the US won't join in this bounty of dirt-cheap energy.  The rest of the world will receive a huge boost to economic growth as electricity costs plunge. 

New cold-hardy electrolyte could double EV range

With existing battery electrolytes, many electric vehicles struggle to maintain decent range in cold temperatures

Depositphotos

From New Atlas

A joint team of researchers from Nankai University in Tianjin and the Shanghai Institute of Space Power Sources (SISP) has developed a hydrofluorocarbon-based electrolyte that significantly enhances the performance of lithium batteries. As reported by the South China Morning Post, the new electrolyte more than doubles the energy density of existing batteries at room temperature, meaning batteries of the same size can last twice as long.

The researchers also claim that the new electrolyte remains stable in extreme cold, allowing batteries to function seamlessly in temperatures as low as -94 ºF (-70 ºC), well over 2.5 times the temperature of your refrigerator.

Chemical batteries, such as lithium batteries, utilize electrolytes – a chemical medium that allows ions to flow between the positive and negative electrodes, converting stored chemical energy into electrical current. In lithium batteries, the electrolytes are usually nitrogen- and oxygen-based compounds, mainly because of their effectiveness at dissolving lithium salts.


However, these electrolytes are sensitive to operating temperatures. Cold temperatures increase viscosity and slow down ion mobility, reducing charge transfer efficiency. When this happens, the battery delivers less power, takes longer to charge, and loses usable capacity, providing less runtime than its stored energy would suggest. This is why lithium batteries appear to die quickly in extreme cold. In certain conditions, such as charging the battery when the temperature is below 32 °F (0 ºC), permanent damage may occur.

In the study published in Nature, the researchers outlined how their solution, synthesized hydrofluorocarbon-based (hydrogen, fluorine, and carbon) electrolytes, eliminates this problem in lithium batteries. The cold-resistant electrolyte offers improved stability and lower viscosity at low temperatures, enabling batteries to continue operating efficiently below -94 °F.

Another outstanding feature of the electrolyte is its energy density – the amount of charge it can store per weight. In the study, the team created lithium metal pouch cells that achieved an energy density of 317 watt-hours per pound (Wh/lb) at room temperature. The cells still maintained a density of 181 Wh/lb at -50 °F (-46 ºC).

In comparison, conventional lithium batteries, such as those found in Tesla EVs, have an energy density of 73-136 Wh/lb at room temperature. This figure more than halves when temperatures fall to just -4 °F (-20 ºC).Technically speaking, the researcher’s electrolyte could triple the range of some EVs with the same battery size!

“For the same mass of lithium battery, the room temperature energy storage capacity is increased by two to three times,” said study author Li Yong, a researcher at SISP.

Beyond the automotive industry, this development could have far-reaching implications across many sectors and everyday life. We are talking drones, robots, smartphones, and consumer electronics that last twice as long while still being able to operate efficiently in extreme cold.

Research robots operating in Antarctica could function reliably, while subsea exploration vehicles could significantly extend their operational range. Similarly, satellites and spacecraft, which endure extreme temperature swings in orbit, could benefit from more stable and predictable power systems. The list goes on and on.

Before we get carried away, it's important to note that the electrolytes are not exactly “all weather” ... yet. The team noted that the electrolyte’s high-temperature stability still needs improvement. Should they succeed in raising the boiling point of the electrolyte, we could have a true all-climate solution.

 

Source: Nature 

 

This is obviously still at the laboratory stage, and as such, may never enter commercial production. However, you may depend upon it: engineers at Chinese and other countries' battery manufacturers will have read the article in Nature, and will be keenly examining the results to see if there is any way they can increase the range and reduce the cost of their own batteries.  There is a ferment in battery technology and manufacture, and the likely outcome is more of the same: plunging costs, higher energy density, and greater range.  Sodium-ion batteries, for example, which also allow low-temperature use, are just one of the ways battery makers have slashed costs.  This new electrolyte keeps lithium-ion in the game. 

CATL reveals sodium-ion battery with 3.6 million mile lifespan

•  CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion costs are around $19/kWh at the cell level. LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells are currently $55-$60/kWh (when bought at massive scale), so roughly 65% cheaper at the moment.  CATL thinks these sodium-ion cells could fall further in cost, possibly down to $10/kWh in 2 or 3 years.
• They are roughly half the cost of the LFP packs at pack level
• The Naxtra battery is capable of around 3.6 million miles (6 million kilometres) of driving before the capacity drops to 85%, 3 to 6 times as long as what we get from the very best LFP batteries today.
• Energy density.  Sodium-ion historically has struggled here. A couple of years ago, sodium-ion packs had an energy density of 120-140 Wh/kg.  The Naxtra pack now has an energy density of 175 Wh/kg, which means the Naxtra has now overtaken BYD's current Blade battery's energy density of 160 to 165.
• It performs much better in winter and summer, in a range between -40C to +70C, and can be charged at full speed even at -20C.
• Doesn't catch alight if pierced or in an accident.
• The Naxtra materials are abundant, cheap and not strategic: sodium (salt), aluminium, carbon.
• Sodium cells can be built on current LFP assembly lines.

As I pointed out in previous pieces on CATL's sodium-ion battery, the combination of low price and very long life make battery storage very, very cheap.  

Solar, with an LCOE* at $42.60 /MWh (Our World in Data figures) is already the second-cheapest source of electricity globally, and the cheapest in the sunbelt, and sodium-ion batteries will allow 12 hours of storage at under $1/MWh.  That doesn't include the cost of charging the batteries, but right now, wherever solar is plentiful, midday output of solar is often curtailed or sold at zero cost, because of excess supply.   The cost of solar quoted above includes income losses from curtailment/zero wholesale prices, so solar will get cheaper as 12 hour storage becomes the norm, and curtailment is no longer necessary. 

What does nuclear cost, i.e., what is nuclear's LCOE?  $155/MWh, according to Our World in Data.  That's the average global price; it's much more expensive in Europe and the USA.  And coal?  Again, the average global LCOE according to OWID,  is $110/MWh.  So, you can have solar, for $40/MWh, which is falling by 10%-plus every year, or coal, which is three times as expensive and not getting any cheaper, or nuclear which is four times as expensive, and getting more expensive (except SMRs**.  Maybe.)  

Wind will also have a rôle in our future grids, because it is seasonally complementary to solar, and is 20% cheaper than solar in high latitudes.  

Sorry, guys, fossil fuels don't stand a chance, except perhaps, in high latitudes.   And even there, HVDC*** power lines can import electricity from solar farms in low latitudes, more cheaply than nuclear or coal.

*Levelised cost of electricity.

**Small modular reactors

***High voltage direct current

Sodium-ion even cheaper than I thought

I wrote a piece a month ago about CATL's new sodium-ion battery.  The video I link to provided more information, suggesting costs are even lower than I said.

The cost at cell level will be $19/kWh vs lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) of $55-$60/kWh.  CATL expects $10/kWh in a couple of years.  $45/kWh at pack level, less than half the cost of LFP.   Production can be carried out on existing assembly lines, so they don't have to rebuild the entire factory.  Any factory making LFP could pivot to sodium-ion at minimal cost and time.   

They will retain 85% after 3.6 million miles.  I said 80% in my earlier piece; so this is even better, meaning that after 50 years, 75% of the battery capacity will remain.  Their life will be 3-6 times longer than the best LFP packs.  Energy density has dramatically improved.  A year ago it was 120-140 Wh/kg, too heavy for EVs. The new energy density is 175 Wh/kg, better than BYD's current blade battery (160 Wh/kg).  They can be charged and used from -40 Celsius to +70 C.  And they use abundant materials: sodium, aluminium and carbon.  They are maintenance free.  They can be safely transported at zero charge, unlike lithium batteries.  CATL has also developed a pack made up of both sodium-ion and lithium-ion cells, combining the best qualities of both. 

Years ago, the rule of thumb was that if battery pack costs fell to $100/kWh, that would make EVs cost the same up-front as ICEVs (petrol vehicles).   (EVs are already much cheaper to run)  We have shot way past that point.  The introduction of sodium-ion batteries means that ICEVs will no longer be cost-effective, and production will cease.  

But this will also transform the grid.  The cost of storage has more than halved, and will halve again.   Solar is already the cheapest electricity for everywhere except high latitudes, and now it can be combined with enough dirt-cheap storage to provide base-load power.   That probably means 8 hours of storage, but storage will be so cheap that even 12 hours will be perfectly feasible and economic.  High latitudes will still need long-term storage, but when your EV dies, the batteries will still have another 50 years plus of life in them, and then they can be shipped to high latitudes to provide completely free long-term storage.

This spells the end of the fossil fuel economy.   Except for air transport and cement making, everything we now do with coal, oil or gas will be doable with cheap electricity from solar plus sodium-ion storage.

Even in the USA, even with 25% tariffs on imported batteries, the plunge in storage costs means that the EV and storage revolutions will continue.

Sodium batteries about to crush lithium

CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have 5 advantages over lithium-ion:

1.  Sodium-ion batteries used to have a much lower energy density than lithium-ion: 140 Watt-hours per kilogram vs lithium's +-200 Wh/kg.  CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have an energy density of 175 Wh/kg.  That's a higher energy density than BYD's lithium-ion blade battery, which has an energy density of 160 Wh/kg.  But, here's the point: sodium is about 4.5 times cheaper than lithium, even after lithium's big decline in price over the last two years.
2. Sodium-ion batteries work much better in freezing temperatures, for example, at -20 to -40 degrees C, where lithium-ion batteries lose much of their performance, and even stop working at -40 C and below.
3. They can be very rapidly charged, even at low temperatures.
4. They should last for 10,000 recharge cycles, or about 4.8 million kilometres (3 million miles), vs the very best lithium-ion batteries, with maybe 3.5 million km.
5. Safety: sodium-ion batteries are much less inflammable than lithium-ion, and don't catch alight even if sawed or drilled into.

So, sodium-ion batteries are likely to rapidly replace lithium-ion batteries, with battery costs (my estimate) at least halving, a combined effect of longer life and cheaper materials.   

This has huge implications for EV prices.  Remember, outside the USA, EVs have already reached or are close to price parity.  For example, in Australia, the cheapest BYD Dolphin has price parity with the cheapest all-petrol Toyota Corolla.  CATL's new sodium-ion battery means that EVs will now achieve price parity with even the smallest and cheapest petrol cars, and better than that with all mid-size cars.  Expect EV prices to continue to decline, even as range is increased.

It also has equally big implications for the grid.  Battery storage costs will fall so much that 8 hours of storage will be almost as cheap as 4 hours is today.  And, of course, this is not the end of the decline in battery prices.  The pace of technological and manufacturing advance is breathtaking.  This in turn means that every electricity grid within the sunbelt -- between 40 degrees N and S of the equator -- will find solar irresistibly cheap.  And even grids which are only partially within the sunbelt will be heavily dependent on solar.  Europe, for example, will combine North Sea wind with solar from Spain, Morocco, Italy and Turkey.  This is the end of coal and baseload gas.   High latitude locations will probably continue to need peaking gas, but these new super cheap batteries will outcompete gas peakers everywhere else.

The energy transition will accelerate.  EVs will reach 100% of sales everywhere (except the USA) by 2030 or before.  Oil demand will plunge. Coal power stations will stop being profitable, and will be closed.  Emissions will start to fall.  Air pollution will decline.  Blood-soaked petro-states will lose their influence.

Isn't that excellent?

From The Electric Viking

Biggest drop in battery-pack prices in 7 years

 

From BNEF

Battery prices saw their biggest annual drop since 2017. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record low of $115 per kilowatt-hour, according to analysis by research provider BloombergNEF (BNEF). Factors driving the decline include cell manufacturing overcapacity, economies of scale, low metal and component prices, adoption of lower-cost lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, and a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth. This figure represents a global average, with prices varying widely across different countries and application areas.

Over the past two years, battery manufacturers have aggressively expanded production capacity in anticipation of surging demand for batteries in the EV and stationary storage sectors. Currently, overcapacity is rife, with 3.1 terawatt-hours of fully commissioned battery-cell manufacturing capacity globally. That is more than 2.5 times annual demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2024, according to BNEF. While demand across all sectors saw year-on-year growth, the EV market – the biggest demand driver for batteries – grew more slowly than in recent years. Meanwhile, stationary storage markets have taken off, with strong competition across cell and system providers, especially in China.

Evelina Stoikou, the head of BNEF’s battery technology team and lead author of the report, said: “The price drop for battery cells this year was greater compared with that seen in battery metal prices, indicating that margins for battery manufacturers are being squeezed. Smaller manufacturers face particular pressure to lower cell prices to fight for market share.”

 

The figures represent an average across multiple battery end-uses, including different types of electric vehicles, buses and stationary storage projects. Prices for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) came in at $97/kWh, crossing below the $100/kWh threshold for the first time. While EVs have reached price parity in China, they are still more expensive than comparable combustion cars in many markets. BNEF expects more segments to reach price parity in the years ahead as lower-cost batteries become more widely available outside of China.

On a regional basis, average battery pack prices were lowest in China, at $94/kWh. Packs in the US and Europe were 31% and 48% higher, reflecting the relative immaturity of these markets, as well as higher production costs and lower volumes. The price differences for North America and Europe compared to China were higher than in other years, implying the drop in prices was more accentuated in China. Companies in China faced fierce competition this year. These conditions resulted in falling battery prices and lower battery margins, forcing many battery manufacturers to enter new markets, including energy storage, while also eyeing overseas markets willing to pay more for batteries.

The industry has also benefitted from low raw material prices. These could rise in the next few years, as geopolitical tensions, tariffs on battery metals and low prices stall new mining and refining projects.

Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at BNEF, said: “One thing we’re watching is how new tariffs on finished battery products may lead to distortionary pricing dynamics and slow end-product demand. Regardless, higher adoption of LFP chemistries, continued market competition, improvements in technology, material processing and manufacturing will exert downward pressure on battery prices.”

BNEF expects pack prices to decrease by $3/kWh in 2025, based on its near-term outlook. Looking ahead, continued investment in R&D, manufacturing process improvements, and capacity expansion across the supply chain will help improve battery technology and further reduce prices over the next decade. In addition, next-generation technologies, such as silicon and lithium metal anodes, solid-state electrolytes, new cathode material, and new cell-manufacturing processes will play an important role in enabling further price reductions in the coming decade.

We have to draw a distinction between battery cell prices and battery pack prices.   The cells are only part of a battery pack.  Battery pack prices are very different in different economies.  They are by far the cheapest in China, at $94/kWh, compared with the US at $123/kWh, and Europe at $139.   Without tariffs, battery cell prices would converge on the lowest price, which is currently around $53/kWh in China.  And there are sodium-ion batteries which will soon have a cell cost below $35/kWh, and a pack cost (my estimate) of $60/kWh.  

BNEF forecasts a fall of just $3 in pack prices during 2025.  I've used that in my chart below (which goes further back than 2013, as I have been collecting the data for longer), but I suspect that's far too conservative.   With huge oversupply of battery production in China, price pressure is going to remain.  And the pressure on China's battery manufacturers and EV makers to survive will drive exports, if not to Europe and the USA, at least to the rest of the world. 

This affects both stationary storage (for the grid) and for EVs.  Legacy carmakers refused to take EVs seriously until too late, which is why their battery pack prices are so high.  They are way behind the curve.  China has the capacity to build 40 million cars a year, and is only building 3/4 of that number.  China's car, and battery, exports are going to explode.  Whatever Trump does.

CATL's second-gen sodium-ion battery

Photo by: InsideEVs

From Inside EVs

China is reaching new heights in diversifying the battery chemistries used in electric vehicles. The country is already leading in subcategories of lithium-based chemistries, like nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), nickel-aluminum-cobalt (NCA) and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP). Earlier this year, state-run utility company China Southern Power Grid even deployed sodium-ion batteries for stationary energy storage. Now CATL, the world's largest battery maker, claims to have unlocked new levels of extreme weather performance with sodium-ion batteries.

The role of sodium ions is similar to lithium ions, where charge-carrying ions travel between the positive and negative electrodes during the charge and discharge cycles. Studies suggest that sodium-ion batteries could eliminate the pesky traits of lithium-ions: There’s less risk of thermal runaway, they can operate at varied temperatures and crucially, the cost of sodium hydroxide, a key raw material, is far lower than lithium-hydroxide. (Although battery companies have reached better economies of scale with lithium-ions.)

Sodium-ion batteries have already entered production in China. Cars that use them include the Yiwei EV produced by Volkswagen-backed JAC and the JMEV EV3. Speaking at the World Young Scientists Summit, CATL chief scientist Wu Kai said that its second-generation sodium-ion cells can discharge normally even at -40 degrees Celsius, as per several local Chinese media reports. That means EVs with such batteries won't lose range under frigid temperatures, which could help address some of the lingering concerns regarding the extreme weather performance of batteries.

They will launch in 2025 in China, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.

Tesla's 4680 NCM cells present in some newer Model Ys have an estimated energy density of up to 296 watt-hours per kilogram, as per some early teardowns. Sodium-ion batteries are less energy dense. While CATL has not disclosed the energy density of the new cells, it reportedly aims to reach a figure of 200 Wh/kg—a tough goal given that even LFP batteries have only recently hit that mark. That would only be appropriate for low-range EVs or entry-level trims. Some reports also claim that sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace 20-30% of LFP batteries in select applications.

A study published in the U.S. government’s National Library of Medicine calls sodium-ion batteries a “rising star.” Battery giants like CATL, BYD, and Sweden’s Northvolt are already investing in and developing these next-generation cells. So either way, one thing is clear: the future of battery chemistry isn’t headed in a single direction but will likely embrace a mix of chemistries tailored to specific use cases.

In principle, sodium-ion batteries should be cheaper than lithium-ion, because sodium is far more common and far cheaper than lithium (salt is sodium chloride, and the sea is full of it).  But production is still limited, so they are not cheaper yet.  As volumes expand, though, they will fall in cost just as fast as lithium-ion batteries have fallen, cutting battery cell costs to below $35/kWh, and battery pack costs to ~$65/kWh.  At that price, the average EV battery pack will cost between $2600 and $4000, making EVs cheaper to buy as well as to run than petrol cars.   For reference, in 2010, lithium-ion batteries cost $1392/kWh.  Expect EVs to rapidly move to 100% of all sales, as costs continue to plunge--except of course in the US, where tariffs will stop this happening.  They already make up more than 50% of sales in China, the world's largest car market.  

Because of lower energy density, initially battery-packs will combine sodium-ion and lithium-ion cells.  But cheaper cars, with shorter ranges, will be the first to get 100% sodium-ion batteries.  

World's largest sodium-ion battery

Source: ESS-News

From ESS-News

China’s state-owned power generation enterprise Datang Group said on June 30 that it had connected to the grid a 50 MW/100 MWh [this means it can produce 50MW of electricity for 2 hours, or, for example, 25MW for 4 hours] project in Qianjiang, Hubei Province, making it the world’s largest operating sodium-ion battery energy storage system.

The project represents the first phase of the Datang Hubei Sodium Ion New Energy Storage Power Station, which consists of 42 battery energy storage containers and 21 sets of boost converters. It uses 185 ampere-hour large-capacity sodium-ion batteries supplied by China’s HiNa Battery Technology and is equipped with a 110 kV transformer station.

Previously, the largest operational sodium-ion system was China Southern Power Grid’s Fulin 10 MWh BESS project, located in Nanning, southwestern China. The power station, which represents the first phase of a 100 MWh project, also features HiNa Battery’s cells.

According to Datang Group, one of China’s five large-scale power generation companies, the project team has overcome many difficulties to bring the Qianjiang project to fruition.

The company describes the project as the first large-scale and commercial application of large-capacity sodium-ion energy storage systems and sees a lot of advantages in this type of battery chemistry.

“Sodium-ion batteries have excellent safety and low-temperature operating performance. They can still guarantee 85% charge and discharge efficiency at minus 20 degrees Celsius, which is unmatched by other batteries. They can also guarantee 1,500 charge and discharge cycles at a high temperature of 60 degrees Celsius. Their puncture resistance and impact resistance are much better than that of ordinary batteries,” said Cui Yongle, project manager of Datang Hubei Sodium Ion Energy Storage.

According to Datang Group, the power station can be charged and discharged more than 300 times a year. A single charge can store up to 100,000 kWh of electricity and release electricity during the peak period of the power grid. It can meet the daily power needs of around 12,000 households and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 13,000 tons annually.

Because sodium is much more abundant than lithium, sodium-ion batteries are also significantly (30%) cheaper than lithium-ion batteries.  Their energy density is lower than lithium-ion, in other words, they're heavier for the same amount of storage, which is why they've not yet been used in EVs.  But BYD, Chery and YiWei (a JV with Volkswagen) are all introducing EVs with sodium-ion batteries.  They're using them in cheap EVs with low ranges to cut costs. Given the ferment and fierce competition in batteries and EVs in China, expect further sustained cost falls in Na-ion batteries.  Our electricity storage problem is being solved.  I predict costs will halve again over the next five years--or sooner.

Add this to the sustained decline in already cheap solar panels and the electricity generated from them, and the switch to solar in mid- and low latitudes will only accelerate.

Li-ion battery costs rise for 1st time

From BloombergNEF (BNEF)

Rising raw material and battery component prices and soaring inflation have led to the first ever increase in lithium-ion battery pack prices since BloombergNEF (BNEF) began tracking the market in 2010. After more than a decade of declines, volume-weighted average prices for lithium-ion battery packs across all sectors have increased to $151/kWh in 2022, a 7% rise from last year in real terms. The upward cost pressure on batteries outpaced the higher adoption of lower cost chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP). BloombergNEF expects prices to stay at similar levels next year, further defying historical trends.

The above figures represent an average across multiple battery end-uses, including different types of electric vehicles, buses and stationary storage projects. For battery electric vehicle (BEV) packs in particular, prices were $138/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis in 2022. At the cell level, average BEV prices were just $115/kWh. This indicates that on average, cells account for 83% of the total pack price. Over the last three years, the cell-to-pack cost ratio has diverged from the traditional 70:30 split. This is partially due to changes to pack design, such as the introduction of cell-to-pack approaches, which have helped reduce costs.

On a regional basis, battery pack prices were cheapest in China, at $127/kWh. Packs in the US and Europe were 24% and 33% higher, respectively. Higher prices reflect the relative immaturity of these markets, the higher production costs, the diverse range of applications and battery imports. For the higher end of the range, low volume and bespoke orders push prices up.

Prices could have risen further in 2022 had it not been for the higher adoption of the low-cost cathode chemistry known as LFP, and the continued reduction of expensive cobalt in nickel-base cathodes. On average, LFP cells were 20% cheaper than lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells in 2022. However, even low-cost chemistries like LFP, which is particularly exposed to lithium carbonate prices, have felt the bite of rising costs throughout the supply chain. LFP battery pack prices rose 27% in 2022, compared to 2021.[The lithium carbonate price rose 5-fold in 2022, but has since halved again]

Evelina Stoikou, an energy storage associate at BNEF and lead author of the report, said: “Raw material and component price increases have been the biggest contributors to the higher cell prices observed in 2022. Amidst these price increases for battery metals, large battery manufacturers and automakers have turned to more aggressive strategies to hedge against volatility, including direct investments in mining and refining projects.”

While prices for key battery metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt have moderated slightly in recent months, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to remain elevated in 2023 at $152/kWh (in real 2022 dollars).

BNEF expects battery price to start dropping again in 2024, when lithium prices are expected to ease as more extraction and refining capacity comes online. Based on the updated observed learning rate, BNEF’s 2022 Battery Price Survey predicts that average pack prices should fall below $100/kWh by 2026. This is two years later than previously expected and will negatively impact the ability for automakers to produce and sell mass-market EVs in areas without subsidies or other forms of support. Higher battery prices could also hurt the economics of energy storage projects.

Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at BNEF, said: “Despite a setback on price declines, battery demand is still reaching new records each year. Demand will reach 603GWh in 2022, which is almost double that in 2021. Scaling up supply at that rate of growth is a real challenge for the industry, but investment in the sector is also rising rapidly and technology innovation is not slowing down.”

Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF, added: “Lithium prices remain high due to persistent supply chain constraints and the slow ramp up in new production capacity. Additional lithium supply could ease the pressure on prices in 2024, while geo-politics and trade tension remain the biggest uncertainties for other key battery metal prices in the short-term. Resolving these tensions could help calm prices in 2023 and beyond.”

Continued investment in R&D, manufacturing process improvements, and capacity expansion across the supply chain will help to improve battery technology and reduce costs over the next decade. BloombergNEF expects next-generation technologies, such as silicon and lithium metal anodes, solid-state electrolytes and new cathode material and cell manufacturing processes, to play an important role in enabling further price reductions.

The new sodium-ion batteries that BYD is putting in its cheaper cars (at 160 Wh per kilo, they have a lower energy density than li-ion's 180 Wh/kg) cost US$77/ kWh, or half the cost of li-ion, and are expected to drop to $40/kWh as mass production starts.   Even if li-ion battery pack prices only fall slowly from now on, that won't slow down the EV boom.  Cars will just have sodium-ion or perhaps a mixture of li-ion and sodium-ion batteries.  This means that average battery pack prices will fall below $100/kWh this year.  And that is the point at which EVs have the same sticker price as petrol/diesel cars.  They are already cheaper to run, because they're much more efficient and require far less servicing than ICEVs. Now they'll be cheaper to buy, too.

Welcome to the EV revolution.

Will we have enough minerals for the energy transition?

 An interesting video from Just Have A Think.

The answer: prolly, yes, because we'll need less than it seems, as only one third of primary energy ends up being used.  The rest is wasted.  

And the argument that we'll need massive storage is wrong.  What we'll do instead is have excess renewable generation capacity, with the surplus output either being curtailed or used for processes that don't require 24/7 availability of electricity, such as desalination and charging EVs.  Also, energy return on energy invested is now higher for renewables than for fossil fuels. Finally, battery technology is shifting, with new technologies such as sodium-ion using readily available, cheap minerals.  Sodium-ion batteries will cost half of lithium-ion batteries.

However, there's this article which suggests that price of copper (an EV uses 4 times as much as a petrol car, mostly for wiring) is beginning a phase of secular growth.  As it happens, the price of copper has fallen since then!  Never mind, it happens to the best of us.

My take: as demand driven by the energy transition pushes up prices of certain commodities, advances in technology will create alternative ways to achieve the same goals.  An obvious example: after the price of lithium soared, research on sodium-ion batteries took off.  Now, sodium-ion batteries are commercially available and have been installed in EVs.   They're not yet as energy dense as lithium-ion batteries, but they're much cheaper.  And research continues.

If somebody had told you 70 years ago that we would use sunlight to produce electricity, they would have replied, had they even known about it, that it was so expensive that it could only be used for spacecraft.  And anyway, where were we going to get all that silicon?  Yet here we are.  I'm typing this on a laptop with the power several orders of magnitude more than the first IBM computer, using sunlight to power not just it, but also my internet connection.  Inconceivable 70 years ago.  Routine, now.

BYD to begin Sodium-ion battery production in a few months?

 From CleanTechnica

Rumors are flying about in China that claim BYD plans to be producing sodium-ion battery cells in the second quarter of 2023 and use them to power some of its own electric vehicles. The company claims those rumors are false, but they come to us via CnEVPost, which is widely viewed as a reliable source of information about what is going on in the automobile business in China. CnEVPost attributes its news to a report by local Chinese news source LatePost.

BYD battery division FinDreams is said to be responsible for the development and mass production of the sodium-ion batteries, which are currently in the sample validation stage. According to the report, they could be used in the BYD Qin, Dolphin, and new Seagull models. The Qin and Dolphin range in price from $14,000 to $21,000. The Seagull will be priced between $11,000 and $14,000. EVs priced at less than $14,000 have accounted for over 36% of all battery-electric cars sold in China this year.


The reason for doing this — assuming the report is accurate — is that the price of lithium has soared in the past 18 months from $5,700 a ton in June of 2020 to $84,000 a ton today. Since lithium is the primary ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, the search for less expensive alternatives is understandable. The price of sodium is around $3,000 a ton today.

Sodium batteries have one important drawback, however. They have a lower energy density than lithium batteries, so you need more of them to have an equivalent amount of energy available to power an electric car.

Guosen Securities analyst Tang Xuxia and his team said in a research report last July that lithium-ion batteries have an energy density of up to 300Wh/kg, while lead acid batteries have an energy density of around 50Wh/kg. Sodium-ion batteries are somewhere in between the two.

CATL is also pursuing sodium-ion batteries for production vehicles and claims its sodium battery cells have an energy density of 160 Wh/kg. But CATL does not manufacture vehicles, so it is likely BYD will be the first car maker to bring sodium-ion batteries to market. The lower power density will probably be less of a factor at the lower end of the market where the primary factor in the decision to purchase an electric car is price rather than performance.

In addition to being less expensive, sodium batteries also avoid the potential risk of fire associated with lithium-ion batteries, which means manufacturers can use less elaborate and less expensive battery cooling systems, which will help to further lower the cost of entry level EVs.

Once again, this is all rumor and conjecture at the moment, but it does suggest that less expensive electric cars are not far away, even if they won’t be able to do the Kessel run in less than 12 par-secs. There are plenty of people who would forfeit dominance in the stoplight grand prix in order to own an affordable electric car.

In an informal poll among those in attendance in CleanTechnica’s graphene and beryllium conference room recently, none would bet against BYD mounting a serious challenge to other top EV manufacturers in the very near future.

Lithium price in US$.  N.B. Log scale!!!

 Note how cheap EVs are in China.  China produces 1/3rd of the world's cars, and plug-ins now make up ±30% of its market.  Domestic demand has been so strong that exports have been relatively small.  But when they start, they will take a big chunk of market share, not from other EVs but from petrol/disel cars (ICEVs).  BYD is the world's largest EV manufacturer, and has just started to sell its cars in Australia, as a test run for entering the US market.

The BYD 'Dolphin'

First generation sodium-ion battery

 From InsideEVs

The largest Chinese battery manufacturer - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) - has announced today the first generation of sodium-ion batteries.

The sodium-ion batteries are not new. The concept emerged atn a similar time as the lithium-ion batteries, as both types have a similar working principle.

"Sodium ions also shuttle between the cathode and anode. However, compared with lithium ions, sodium ions have a larger volume and higher requirements regarding structural stability and the kinetic properties of materials. This has become a bottleneck for the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries."

The lower energy density of sodium-ion batteries limited interest in this type over the years, but it might return as this chemistry has its own, specific advantages. Here is how the company describes the cells:

"CATL has been dedicated to the research and development of sodium-ion battery electrode materials for many years. In terms of cathode materials, CATL has applied Prussian white material with a higher specific capacity and redesigned the bulk structure of the material by rearranging the electrons, which solved the worldwide problem of rapid capacity fading upon material cycling. In terms of anode materials, CATL has developed a hard carbon material that features a unique porous structure, which enables the abundant storage and fast movement of sodium ions, and also an outstanding cycle performance."

The first-generation model is expected to deliver a decent energy density, very fast charging capability, and especially strong performance at low temperatures.

• energy density of up to 160 Wh/kg
• (the target for the second generation is 200 Wh/kg)
• fast charging up to 80% SOC in 15 minutes at room temperature
• excellent thermal stability
• great low-temperature performance
• at -20°C, the sodium-ion battery has a capacity retention rate of more than 90%
• system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%
• (cells consist more than 80% of the pack weight and/or volume)

Compared to the lithium-ion LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistry, the sodium-ion also does not contain cobalt or nickel and is expected to be similarly affordable at scale.

Sodium-ion chemistry actually beats LFP in low-temperature performance, fast charging, cycle-life and system integration efficiency, but are currently less energy-dense.

"The first generation of sodium-ion batteries can be used in various transportation electrification scenarios, especially in regions with extremely low temperatures, where its outstanding advantages become obvious. Also, it can be flexibly adapted to the application needs of all scenarios in the energy storage field."

According to Chinese media reports, sodium-ion cells should start at 500 CNY ($77) per kWh at a small scale, while at a volume scale the cost will be halved to 200-300 CNY ($31-$47) per kWh, which potentially would be very competitive.

The specifics of the sodium-ion batteries makes them perfect for cold climates. On the other hand, they might be used together with other types (higher energy-dense lithium-ion) in a single battery pack.

CATL proposes an AB battery system solution - a hybrid battery pack - with two battery cell types. In a combination with smart BMS, the vehicle could take advantage of the low-temperature performance of the sodium-ion battery or high energy density, depending on the need.

"In terms of battery system innovation, CATL has made another breakthrough in battery system integration and developed an AB battery system solution, which is to mix and match sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries in a certain proportion and integrate them into one battery system, and control the different battery systems through the BMS precision algorithm.

The AB battery system solution can compensate for the current energy-density shortage of the sodium-ion battery, and also expand its advantages of high power and performance in low temperatures. Thanks to this innovative structure system, application scenarios for the lithium-sodium battery system are expanded."

For example, there would be no limitations on regenerative braking in the winter.

One of the most important things is that the sodium-ion can be produced using the production equipment and processes used for lithium-ion cells.

CATL is starting industrial deployment and by 2023 should achieve a scale. The company invites partners to support the development of the chemistry.

"Dr. Qisen Huang, deputy dean of the CATL Research Institute, said that sodium-ion battery manufacturing is perfectly compatible with the lithium-ion battery production equipment and processes, and the production lines can be rapidly switched to achieve a high-production capacity.

As of now, CATL has started its industrial deployment of sodium-ion batteries, and plans to form a basic industrial chain by 2023. CATL invites upstream suppliers and downstream customers, as well as research institutions to jointly accelerate the promotion and development of sodium-ion batteries."

There is a ferment of new battery research and discoveries.  Over the next few decades, expect battery energy density to rise and costs to plunge.