Solar sounds the knell for fossil fuels

 From This is not Cool

RenewEconomy (Australia)[Article by Ray Wills]:

Solar is not just getting cheaper; it is sprinting down a learning curve that has held for half a century, with module prices falling about ten-thousand-fold as cumulative capacity has exploded. 

That is my first message: a technology whose cost keeps dropping predictably as deployment grows, and where every new gigawatt makes the next gigawatt cheaper again. 

And beating the trend line. [Prof Wills' comment refers to the way the slope of the capacity price trend line has steepened since 2020; i.e., the learning curve has accelerated]

 

The second message is about speed. 

When we line up all major power sources from the year each first exceeded a bigly amount of energy – 100 TWh – solar and wind are now racing ahead faster than coal, gas, hydro or nuclear ever did – nuclear did move fast for a while there, but then it stopped. Wind hasn’t.

And batteries are climbing even more steeply from their own 100 TWh “year zero”.

This is already the fastest shift in electricity generation in history, and it is still accelerating.

The third story is where it takes us. 

On current trajectories, the Future Smart Strategies  [Prof Ray Wills' consulting company] model has solar, wind and batteries driving renewables towards around 80 per cent of global electricity by 2035, with coal, oil and gas pushed to the margins of the system.

Yet mainstream outlooks such as BNEF’s 2026 New Energy Outlook still assume a convenient slowing of this trend beyond the visible horizon, even though every call for a slowdown since 2015 has been wrong, and every retrospective look has had to revise growth up, not down.

Solar is moving fast. Really fast. Batteries are moving faster.

There is no evidence in either prices or deployment that the system is about to tap the brakes.

For our Future Smart global growth model, the logical response is not to ask why the transition is so quick, but to ask: why on earth it would be slow?

Ray Willis and Peter Newman in The Conversation:

Solar produces cheap, abundant power. Batteries allow it to be used later. These technologies are useful first to clean up electricity generation and boost energy security. 

But these two technologies can unlock much more. They can make it possible to electrify polluting sectors long considered “hard to abate”. 

Electric options for heavy industry are multiplying. Electric arc furnaces are now replacing coal‑fired blast furnaces in steelmaking. High‑temperature electric heat pumps and electric boilers are replacing gas in some chemical and food‑processing plants, while heavy duty battery‑electric haul trucks are being trialled in mining and construction.

These technologies are still at an early stage. They’re often more expensive up-front. But the selling point is the fact they are cheaper to run – as long as electricity is fairly cheap. 

This is exactly the outcome solar and battery combinations deliver.

I have found in the past several years that Prof Ray Wills has been a much better forecaster than 95% of the rest of the renewables futurists, with the only exception being Tony Seba.  What characterises both these blokes is their reliance on exponential growth curves.    I have learnt from both of them.

What my own analysis suggests (still working on the data—I'll try and get my article out later this week) is that wind and solar will reach roughly two-thirds of global generation (output) by 2035, which is slower that Wills's forecasts.  There are many caveats to my forecasts, which I'll get into in the article.  But what this means is that fossil fuels in electricity generation will be mostly phased out by 2035.

If you add the S-curve transition taking place in EVs, emissions are likely to fall very fast from 2030 onwards.  Unless the world becomes an AI hellhole.

Batteries are taking over Australia's evening peak

 From Gavin Mooney

Just one year ago, peaking gas was still doing much of the heavy lifting during Australia's evening peak. Today, that is no longer the case.

The chart below compares average daily dispatch profiles across Australia's main grid (the NEM) in April 2025 and April 2026.

The change in just one year is remarkable.

While peaking gas generation has fallen sharply, battery discharge has surged and is now dominating the evening peak.

This isn't just about more batteries being installed. It's also about batteries performing one of the grid's most valuable jobs: supplying electricity during the high-demand evening period when solar output falls away.

A few things stand out:

✅ Battery discharge in Q1 2026 was around 3x higher than a year earlier
✅ Batteries now set wholesale electricity prices roughly one-third of the time
✅ Wholesale electricity prices were 12% lower in Q1 - largely due to the influx of batteries

Perhaps most strikingly, battery discharge across the NEM has now overtaken peaking gas generation – and it appears on track to overtake mid-merit gas in the next year as well.

This shift is being primarily driven by economics.

Battery costs have fallen dramatically, projects have become larger and the growing spread between low daytime prices and higher evening prices increasingly favours battery storage.

For decades, peaking gas plants were the default solution for the evening peak.

Increasingly, that role is being performed by batteries instead.

Australia now has more battery storage capacity per capita than any other country in the world - more than double the second-ranked country.

Even in absolute terms, only China and the US have more installed battery capacity. That's pretty remarkable for a country of just 27 million people.

The Oz government has a program to subsidise home batteries, and this has helped drive the huge surge in battery installations.  It's also driving down wholesale electricity prices, which of course was the intent.  Australia achieved widespread penetration of household solar by generous subsidies (now mostly wound down) and the same looks set to happen in storage.  Wind + solar + batteries is producing ever cheaper electricity, and this will drive fossil fuels out of the grid.  

Home batteries go mainstream

From RenewEconomy

A new report released on the first anniversary of the launch of Australia’s Cheaper Home Batteries scheme has confirmed that 2025 was a record smashing year for small-scale storage, with 221,000 residential battery systems installed over the calendar year, adding nearly 5 gigawatt-hours of storage.

This number has since more than doubled – recent updates have put the total number of home battery systems installed through the federal rebate at more than 450,000, and counting, as the scheme ticks over into its second year.

But the Australian Battery Marker Report, published on Wednesday by SunWiz, documents a year where home batteries hit the mainstream and fundamentally changed the course of the consumer energy revolution.

In total, SunWiz says 221,000 systems were installed in 2025, compared with 72,500 the previous year, delivering an additional 4,790 megawatt-hours (MWh) of new storage capacity to the grid.

This, says the report, is equivalent to powering around 1.2 million homes over the four-hour evening peak period, or around 25 times the capacity of the Hornsdale Power Reserve – the world’s first ever big battery, installed in South Australia nearly a decade ago.

Most of the record new home battery capacity, of course, was installed in the second half of year, following the July 2025 launch of federal Labor’s Cheaper Home Battery rebate, the success of which has exceeded all expectations and led to the scheme being adjusted to make it last longer and go further.

“[This] wasn’t just a growth year for Australian batteries – it was a market transformation,” the report says. “We’re talking a threefold increase in system count and a fivefold increase in capacity versus 2024.  2025 … was the year [home batteries] went mainstream,” adds SunWiz founder and managing director, Warwick Johnston.

All told, nearly 5 per cent (4.6%) of Australian homes had a battery installed by the end of the year, and 13 per cent of all of the nation’s rooftop solar systems had added a battery.

2025 was also the year that Australian households fundamentally changed how they ‘do’ battery storage; system sizes nearly doubled, the battery-to-solar attachment rate soared, and people also started boosting the amount of rooftop solar they have, to fill their super-sized batteries.

Over the course of 2025, the average battery size jumped to 21.6 kilowatt-hours (kWh) compared with 11.8 kWh the year before, the report says.

It’s telling that while installations have increased threefold, capacity has increased fivefold,” says Johnston.

“Australian homes are benefiting from more modern and larger battery systems that are supporting the country’s emissions goals and their own back pockets at a time when energy costs have become such a major national concern.”

2025 was also the year that households were given a whole lot more choice on battery brands and offerings. The report names China-based Sigenergy as market leader by the end of the year, having only entered the local market in 2024. Fox ESS also re-entered the Australian market and by year’s end had captured 10 per cent of market share per kWh, while Tesla and BYD continued to slide.

Looking ahead, SunWiz forecasts continued momentum, and is predicting that a new record of 350,000 home batteries will be added in 2026 across the country.

“We’re looking at years of higher energy costs and uncertainty over those costs,” says Johnston. “That motivates Australian families to secure their own electricity supply.

“We anticipate installation volumes to 2030 will be shaped by the interplay of declining rebates, falling battery costs, rising electricity prices, and rising demand for energy self-sufficiently. On balance, these forces point to sustained demand. The boom is far from over.”

When this program was first announced by the government, critics said that it would only benefit the wealthy.  However, the huge jump in storage meant that gas set the price much less often, which cause a fall in the wholesale price of electricity, which led to benefits for the whole market.

Super fast growth in wind and solar

 From Gavin Mooney

Wind and solar generation is scaling faster than any other electricity sources in history.

This chart looks at the time taken for different technologies to grow from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh of annual electricity generation.

✅ Solar took just 8 years
✅ Wind took 12 years
✅ By comparison, gas took 28 years, coal 32 years and hydro 39 years

Nuclear also reached the milestone in 12 years, but then its growth slowed sooner than wind.

Importantly, this chart is not measuring market share. It is measuring how quickly different technologies scaled once they reached meaningful levels of deployment.

And the story today is also bigger than generation alone.

Batteries are increasingly extending solar generation into the evening peak, while electrification is creating new demand for clean electricity in transport, heating and industry.

Much of this growth is being driven by improving economics, with wind, solar and batteries becoming increasingly competitive across a growing range of applications.

That combination is beginning to reshape energy systems around the world.

Renewables now generate more than one third of global electricity, and wind and solar continue to account for the majority of new power capacity added each year.

The pace of deployment matters because energy transitions are ultimately about scale. And by that measure, wind and solar are growing faster than anything that came before them.

PV panel prices just keep on sliding

This shows the costs of photovoltaic (solar) panels, in constant dollars, from Our World in Data.  In 2024, PV panels cost just 0.2 per cent of what they cost in 1975, and 70% of what they cost in 2020, a compound annual rate of decline of 12%, despite the bounce during and after Covid.  This trend is likely to continue.

Since battery costs are falling even faster than panel costs, solar is getting closer and closer to being able to provide baseload power, as increased storage capacity becomes affordable.   In 2020, solar provided 3.2% of the world's electricity, in 2025 it reached 8.7%, and it seems likely that by 2030, it will be 23.6%, assuming the growth rate of the last 5 years continues.  Given the impact of the Iran war on gas prices outside the US, even this jump may prove too conservative.  

This is the first oil crisis where there is an alternative:  solar plus storage, and EVs.  Repeated oil crises have shown how unwise it is to rely on oil and gas.  The great irony of Trump's war is that it will accelerate the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.  

Hybrid wind-battery systems better than coal

Loy Yang A power station
Source: AGL

 From RenewEconomy

Hybrid wind and battery projects could cover off almost all of the energy generation and grid services currently provided by Australia’s remaining coal plants, but without the breakdowns or the pollution, and with a bunch of added extras coal plants can’t do.

Daniel Ryan, who is technical lead of future grid at Envision Energy, says the China-based company can “clearly see the value” of hybrid renewables power stations in Australia, where wind and battery energy storage could be integrated behind a single grid connection point.

While grid-coupled solar-battery hybrid projects are all the rage in Australia’s renewables development pipeline at the moment – highly prized for their numerous economic and technological advantages – the wind sector is playing catch-up on this trend.

Ryan says that while Australia has many “renewable power parks” and has also built have some of the world’s largest onshore wind farms, most of the operational wind and battery projects are what he describes as “un-orchestrated;” separate control systems, and “very simplistic.”

Given the lack of operating examples in Australia, Envision has built its own large-scale “living laboratory” in Chi Feng in China, to get a better understanding of what true, AC-coupled wind and battery energy storage systems (BESS) can offer a modern-day grid.

“This is not a pilot or a small demonstration,” Ryan told the 2026 Wind Industry Forum in Melbourne on Tuesday. 

“It’s a self-developed, fully integrated renewable generation system, combining gigawatts of renewables, grid-forming storage, power electronic loads, and high voltage infrastructure.

“Bringing these elements together, we can clearly see the value of coordinated hybrid systems in Australia,” Ryan said.

“By integrating wind and BESS behind a single connection point, we move from a collection of assets to a fully orchestrated power plant.” 

But with an eye to the Australian market, Envision has taken its R&D efforts a step further than the living lab in China to a “thought experiment” based on one of Australia’s largest remaining coal plants.

“To get a better understanding of what a future wind-BESS hybrid generator needs to deliver, we thought that it’s useful to look at what we’re trying to replace,” Ryan told the conference. 

“As we’re based in Victoria, we did a thought experiment on Loy Yang Power Station,” he said, referring to the until recently Alinta Energy-owned Loy Yang B plant in the Latrobe Valley that is likely to one of the last to close, with a 2046 date pencilled in.

“(Loy Yang) delivers a wide range of system services, including around 1.2 gigawatts [GW] of reactive power capability, 10 GVA [giga-volt amperes] of bulk current contribution … and frequency control services; 200-400 megawatts [MW] of contingency and regulation FCAS  [Frequency Control Ancillary Services]. 

“So, the key question becomes, can a wind-BESS hybrid not only replace the energy output but also exceed the system performance of a coal power station?

To replace Loy Yang with a wind-BESS hybrid, Envision landed on a 3.35 GW wind farm paired with a 1 GW grid-forming BESS, which Ryan says reflects the size and scale of projects that are beginning to emerge in markets like Australia. 

“Starting with system services, it’s immediately clear that a wind-BESS hybrid doesn’t just match coal in many areas, it actually exceeds it,” he told the conference. 

Ryan says that on regulation and contingency FCAS [frequency control ancillary services] the BESS would provide two- to six-times as much as Loy Yang – and could also participate heavily in the one-second FCAS market.

The hybrid power station also offers the primary frequency response contribution of the wind farm, Ryan adds, which is “slower, but still very significant due to a scale.” 

“We can conclude, I think, from this that the frequency performance of this power station far exceeds any coal power station,” he told the conference.

“For reactive power capability, the plant gives us around 1300 megavar , which is slightly more than Loy Yang, and should be definitely sufficient for any voltage regulation purposes in the network. 

“And finally, in terms of fault level, this falls a little bit short, of course, of the coal power station,” Ryan says.  

“However, we note that because we have a grid forming desk and a wind farm behind a single connection point, it should still be quite significant at a system level, and I think, as technology provider, we’d argue … that maybe fault level isn’t the best defining characteristic for system strength.

“So, what are the key takeaways with hybrid renewable power plant? You don’t just get around the same performance as a coal power station, but you actually get a lot of other benefits,” Ryan told the conference. 

“You can operate at low SER [specific energy rating], you can perform black start and islanding, and you can operate without power generation. 

“All of these a coal power station usually can’t do.”

For wind industry veteran and Envision Energy’s head of wind in Australia, Peter Cowling, the increasingly urgent need to replace coal with cleaner and smarter hybrid renewables technology is one [of] the “super attractive” fundamentals of the Australian market.

“We have a coal sector that literally must retire at some point, particularly Victoria, given the age of [its] facilities and their emissions intensity,” he told the same conference on Tuesday. 

“The resource is phenomenal, still, by any global standard, and the transition is actually incredibly advanced. There is – despite the difficulties of closing new generation programs – … still extraordinary momentum.

“We’ve obviously got a bunch of transmission and planning issues to resolve, and ultimately cost issues to resolve, to get more electrons being generated … but the projects are there. 

“There’s 60-odd gigawatts of projects. We’ve just got to push those through, and I think we will fairly quickly find ourselves with the opposite problem, which is a crazy boom in two years’ time, where we can’t find enough people and cranes. 

“So …we really do believe the market is going to take off,” Cowling said.

This power station is about 5 k's from where I live.  In this part of the world, though the wind isn't necessarily strong, it's nevertheless still a good location for wind farms, and an even better one for offshore wind farms.  (Mean onshore wind speed is 12.5 kph in the morning and 19.3 kph in the afternoon, and minimum wind speed needed for turbines is 11 kph) And of course, because of the coal power stations, the HVDC [high-voltage direct current] power lines are already installed.  

I hadn't thought that wind needed short-term storage, but I was wrong.  Combining wind with batteries will improve grid stability and reliability.

New cold-hardy electrolyte could double EV range

With existing battery electrolytes, many electric vehicles struggle to maintain decent range in cold temperatures

Depositphotos

From New Atlas

A joint team of researchers from Nankai University in Tianjin and the Shanghai Institute of Space Power Sources (SISP) has developed a hydrofluorocarbon-based electrolyte that significantly enhances the performance of lithium batteries. As reported by the South China Morning Post, the new electrolyte more than doubles the energy density of existing batteries at room temperature, meaning batteries of the same size can last twice as long.

The researchers also claim that the new electrolyte remains stable in extreme cold, allowing batteries to function seamlessly in temperatures as low as -94 ºF (-70 ºC), well over 2.5 times the temperature of your refrigerator.

Chemical batteries, such as lithium batteries, utilize electrolytes – a chemical medium that allows ions to flow between the positive and negative electrodes, converting stored chemical energy into electrical current. In lithium batteries, the electrolytes are usually nitrogen- and oxygen-based compounds, mainly because of their effectiveness at dissolving lithium salts.


However, these electrolytes are sensitive to operating temperatures. Cold temperatures increase viscosity and slow down ion mobility, reducing charge transfer efficiency. When this happens, the battery delivers less power, takes longer to charge, and loses usable capacity, providing less runtime than its stored energy would suggest. This is why lithium batteries appear to die quickly in extreme cold. In certain conditions, such as charging the battery when the temperature is below 32 °F (0 ºC), permanent damage may occur.

In the study published in Nature, the researchers outlined how their solution, synthesized hydrofluorocarbon-based (hydrogen, fluorine, and carbon) electrolytes, eliminates this problem in lithium batteries. The cold-resistant electrolyte offers improved stability and lower viscosity at low temperatures, enabling batteries to continue operating efficiently below -94 °F.

Another outstanding feature of the electrolyte is its energy density – the amount of charge it can store per weight. In the study, the team created lithium metal pouch cells that achieved an energy density of 317 watt-hours per pound (Wh/lb) at room temperature. The cells still maintained a density of 181 Wh/lb at -50 °F (-46 ºC).

In comparison, conventional lithium batteries, such as those found in Tesla EVs, have an energy density of 73-136 Wh/lb at room temperature. This figure more than halves when temperatures fall to just -4 °F (-20 ºC).Technically speaking, the researcher’s electrolyte could triple the range of some EVs with the same battery size!

“For the same mass of lithium battery, the room temperature energy storage capacity is increased by two to three times,” said study author Li Yong, a researcher at SISP.

Beyond the automotive industry, this development could have far-reaching implications across many sectors and everyday life. We are talking drones, robots, smartphones, and consumer electronics that last twice as long while still being able to operate efficiently in extreme cold.

Research robots operating in Antarctica could function reliably, while subsea exploration vehicles could significantly extend their operational range. Similarly, satellites and spacecraft, which endure extreme temperature swings in orbit, could benefit from more stable and predictable power systems. The list goes on and on.

Before we get carried away, it's important to note that the electrolytes are not exactly “all weather” ... yet. The team noted that the electrolyte’s high-temperature stability still needs improvement. Should they succeed in raising the boiling point of the electrolyte, we could have a true all-climate solution.

 

Source: Nature 

 

This is obviously still at the laboratory stage, and as such, may never enter commercial production. However, you may depend upon it: engineers at Chinese and other countries' battery manufacturers will have read the article in Nature, and will be keenly examining the results to see if there is any way they can increase the range and reduce the cost of their own batteries.  There is a ferment in battery technology and manufacture, and the likely outcome is more of the same: plunging costs, higher energy density, and greater range.  Sodium-ion batteries, for example, which also allow low-temperature use, are just one of the ways battery makers have slashed costs.  This new electrolyte keeps lithium-ion in the game. 

Renewables met 100% of global demand in 2025

 From Renew Economy

Record amounts of new solar and wind generation capacity met 99 per cent of global electricity demand growth in 2025, new data shows, as the rise and rise of big batteries helps transform solar into a “round-the-clock resource” – with Australia leading the charge.

According to the Global Electricity Review 2026 from energy think tank Ember, renewable power generation increased by 887 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025, outpacing electricity demand growth of 849 TWh for the year.

Solar – as noted above – was the big star of the year, with new PV generation meeting 75 per cent of the net increase in global power demand, growing by a record 636 TWh in 2025 to reach 2,778 TWh in 2025, a 30 per cent jump on 2024.

The increase in global solar capacity [output] was 18 times as large as that of gas (+36 TWh), which was the only fossil power source that grew in 2025, Ember says.

A separate report, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Energy Review says the global solar juggernaut contributed the largest structural increase ever recorded in a single year for any electricity generation technology in 2025, and helped renewables outpace coal growth for the first time. 

In the context of the current Middle East conflict, Ember notes that the solar generation added in 2025 would be sufficient to displace gas-fired electricity equivalent to all LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz in the same year, estimated at 550 TWh. 

Global solar generating capacity [output] has been doubling roughly every three years, Ember says, rising from 1,333 TWh in 2022 and overtaking wind power for the first time globally in 2025. Both solar and wind are expected to overtake nuclear in 2026.

Wind energy, too, had a bumper year according to a separate Ember report, which shows that the global industry installed a record-smashing 165 gigawatts (GW) – or 205 TWh – in 2025, marking the highest ever level of new installations for the wind power industry.

Australia followed the global wind trend, charting 43 per cent year-on-year growth with 1,200 new wind projects coming online in 2025, compared to 835 in 2024 – bringing the total number of wind projects by the end of 2025 to 13,515. 

“Australia recorded a significant increase in wind generation … due to stronger wind conditions and major new wind farms coming online, such as the 412 MW Goyder South wind farm and the 923 MW MacIntyre Wind Farm, Australia’s largest-ever wind farm project,” the report says. 

But Ember notes that fewer projects achieving final investment decision and approval for the coming years, due to planning delays, inflation and community opposition, points to a drop in the future pipeline.

In combination, wind and solar now contribute more than half of all global renewable generation and, combined with nuclear (8.9%) and hydro, low-carbon sources reached 42.6 per cent of total electricity generation in 2025, up 9.1 percentage points from 33.5% in 2015. 

On the other side of the coin, the share of fossil generation fell to 57.4 per cent, down from 66.5 per cent in 2015. This was the first year since 2020 without an increase in electricity generation from fossil fuels and only the fifth year without a rise this century.

For storage, 2025 was also a landmark year, in which battery economics reached a turning point, with battery pack prices for stationary storage falling to a record low of $US70/kWh – down 45 per cent on 2024 – allowing dispatchable solar with batteries to be delivered for around $76/MWh.

“This makes it cheaper and faster to build than a new gas power plant, particularly in countries reliant on expensive LNG imports,” the report says. 

Globally, battery storage capacity additions jumped by 46 per cent from 2024 to an estimated 247 GWh, according to Ember – enough to shift around 14 per cent of global solar generation from daytime to other hours.

According to the IEA, battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025, with the roughly 110 GW of new capacity added over the course of the year beating the largest-ever annual capacity additions for natural gas.

“Battery storage is the fastest growing power technology today,” the IEA says.

“Installed capacity is now eleven times higher than in 2021. Lithium‑iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now account for around 90% of deployments; while less energy‑dense than rival chemistries commonly used in EVs, LFP batteries are typically cheaper and better suited to more frequent cycling. Just five years ago, the market share of LFP batteries in deployments was well below 50%.”

Ember marks 2025 as the year that batteries are “finally moving into the mainstream” to help shift solar power beyond daylight hours and unlock the next phase of solar expansion.

“Batteries have outgrown their initial niche role as a grid stability service and are now core infrastructure designed to store excess daytime electricity and release it in the evening and at night,” the Ember report says.

In this regard, Ember says Australia is leading the world, as one of two countries alongside Chile that could shift more than 50% of the new solar capacity added in 2025 with new battery capacity, transforming PV generation from a daytime solution to “a nearly round-the-clock resource” and the most affordable pathway to meet rapidly rising electricity demand.

“Australia and Chile stand out for adding relatively small amounts of battery capacity in absolute terms, 9 GWh and 4 GWh respectively, but large enough relative to their solar growth to make a material difference,” the report says. 

“Australia shows how batteries can quickly reshape power markets once deployed at scale. In Q4-2025, during the high-value evening peak hours (18:00-20:00) in the National Electricity Market, batteries set prices 36% of the time – doubling from 18% in Q4-2024, displacing gas and hydro as price setters.

So much for renewables leading to higher prices!

“This led to significantly lower price volatility compared with Q4-2024, with average spot prices of around $100 per MWh during 18:00-20:00, less than half of the Q4-2024 average spot prices during these hours. This helped bring overall prices lower, with wholesale prices averaging $50/MWh, a $39/MWh (-44%) reduction from Q4 2024.

These dynamics, says Ember, show batteries are already delivering tangible system benefits by reducing reliance on expensive fossil generation and stabilising prices at the most critical times of day.

“We have firmly entered the era of clean growth,” says Ember managing director Aditya Lolla.

“Clean energy is rapidly redefining the foundation of energy security in a volatile world. It is already helping countries reduce exposure to fossil fuel imports and costs while meeting rising electricity demand.”

 It's clear that emissions from electricity (~30% of total emissions) have peaked.  It's now obvious to everybody, except those who get paid not to see the truth, that reliance on oil and gas is an economic and a strategic risk.  EV sales have risen 50%, as consumers have seen the light, but it must also be self-evident to all in government that it would be far less risky to permanently uncouple economies from oil.  So it is likely that emissions from land transport (~18% of emissions) will peak soon, as EV sales explode.  And governments will force their electricity producers to install more solar and batteries and less gas, to reduce reliance on LNG shipped through the straits of Hormuz.

Also, the oil crisis will most likely lead to a recession, because of a combination of physical constraints on output (for example, Europe has just 6 weeks of aviation fuel left), on confidence (consumer and business) and on incomes (a jump in inflation.)  I lived through the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, both of which led to deep recessions and surging inflation, and this crisis is bigger than those two. In fact, the oil supply shock is bigger than those two combined.  And the consequent fall in oil demand will only be partially replaced as economies recover.  

Emissions have peaked.  Unambiguously good news.

The final nail in the fossil fuel coffin

 From Just Have a Think

When he describes batteries as, say, 500 MW and 2000 MWh, what that means is that the battery can produce 500 MW of electricity for 4 hours (2000/500).  MW is a measure of the output, MWh (or kWh in the case of an EV battery) in this context, is a measure of how much electricity has been stored.

We still don't have a cure for multi-day windless periods--dunkelflaute--but that may be the only place where we will still need gas peaker plants (for now).   For most of the world within 40 degrees of the equator, 8 hours of storage will be enough, as night demand is about two-thirds of average day-time demand.  This means that solar combined with 8 hours of storage will provide power 24/7.  And that's ignoring the huge capacity available with EVs.  For example, Australia has 16 million passenger vehicle and 4 million light commercial trucks.  At 40 kWh storage per EV, that totals to 800,000 MWh/ 800 GWh of stored electricity.  Obviously, only some of that is available at any given time, but even if merely one quarter is available, this would provide 200 GWh of storage.  Even before you add grid-scale batteries, which are about 23 GWh at the moment.

Battery costs to fall 90%

 

CATL (the world's largest battery manufacturer) has put its new sodium-ion battery into production, and will be starting mass production in December.

• They will initially cost half lithium-ion batteries.  Tesla's batteries cost ~$100/kWh.  CATL's goal is a cost of $10/kWh within a few years, as the technology is perfected and mass production increases.    
• They will last 10,000 cycles (compared to Tesla's 1,500), or 3.6 million miles.  That's million.  And even then, they will still have 80% of their original capacity.  Used as grid batteries and fully discharged every day, sodium-ion batteries will last 27 years.  After 60 years, they will still have 60% of their original capacity.
• So they won't just be cheap to buy, but will have very, very low LCOE/LCOS (levelised cost of storage): 90 cents per MWh of output (assuming a life of 30 years).   4 hours of storage will add just $3.50/MWh to solar electricity; 12 hours just $10.  This will completely remove the need for fossil fuel generation, except in high latitudes, and it will make even existing fully-depreciated and paid-off coal power stations wildly uneconomic.
• They will be able to be charged must faster than lithium-ion, capable of adding 520 km of charge in 5 minutes.
• They will operate over a much wider temperature range: from -40C to +70C.
• They are safe.  Unlike lithium-ion batteries, they won't catch fire even if they are pierced,
• Even their energy density is now respectable (sodium-ion batteries have hitherto had low energy densities), at 175 Wh/kg, comparable with the low end of lithium-ion.

The implications are staggering.  Solar costs continue to fall; battery costs will soon make 12 hours of storage economically feasible, and EV batteries will fall from $6,000 per car to $600, making even small EVs easily cheaper than petrol/diesel cars.

The transition from fossil fuel generation and petrol cars will accelerate.  Emissions from electricity generation and land transport make up ~50% of global emissions.   It seems certain that by 2040, these emissions will have mostly ended.  If we replace fossil fuel heating with heat pumps (and electric heating in high latitudes), this could cut emissions by another 10%.  

We still have to cut emissions from cement, iron and steel, air travel, sea transport and agriculture (a biggie), but we will have travelled a long way down the road to net-zero.

[Update 15/10/2025:  The costs are even lower than I thought.  Here's my updated analysis]

China is becoming the world's first electrostate

 From the ABC, Australia's national broadcaster.

In April this year, China installed more solar power than Australia has in all its history. In one month.

This isn’t a story about Australia’s poor track record on solar; Australia is a global leader. Rather, this shows the astonishing rate at which China is embracing renewable technologies across every aspect of its society.

But don’t make the mistake of thinking this transformation is driven by a moral obligation to act on climate change.

China’s reasons for this are less about arresting rising temperatures than its desire to stop relying on imported fossil fuels and to fix the pollution caused by them.

The superpower has put its economic might and willpower behind renewable technologies, and by doing so, is accelerating the end of the fossil fuel era and bringing about the age of the electrostate.

“The whole modern industrial economy is built around fossil fuels. Now the whole world is moving away from that and that means that we are rebuilding our economy around emerging clean tech sectors,” said Muyi Yang, the lead China analyst at energy think tank Ember.

“Once the new direction is set, the momentum will become self-sustaining. It will make reversal impossible. I think China now has set its direction towards a clean energy future.

“Can you imagine that the Chinese government will say that, oh, we will go back to fossil car, not the electric cars? That won’t happen. That’s not possible … this momentum is becoming so strong.”

It’s hard to communicate the scale of China’s clean technology rollout but it helps to look back to recent history to appreciate the transformation.

China became the world’s factory at the end of the 20th century, manufacturing cheap, low-quality products. This industrialisation modernised the country but also caused widespread environmental damage and drastic air pollution.

The factories were powered by fossil fuels, causing China’s emissions to skyrocket and it to become the largest polluter in the world.

China overtook the United States for top place in 2006, but the US is still responsible for the most emissions historically, at one-quarter of all emissions.

 

Still, China’s pivot to renewables wasn’t just about addressing these rising emissions.

With polluted waterways and acrid city smog long ago becoming their own crises, China had to act. Part of that response, starting a decade ago, was a plan called Made in China 2025, which outlined how it would reshape its manufacturing capability to focus on high-tech products, including the ones needed to address climate change.

The authoritarian regime put the heft of the state behind clean technologies at a scale and pace difficult to imagine in most democracies.

It began to invest in all components for renewables, especially wind, solar, electric cars, and batteries that are used for both transport and energy storage. To do this, it used significant government-funded subsidies, said Ember’s Muyi Yang.

“We all understand that young sectors and technologies need some protection for them to grow. It’s like helping a baby to learn how to walk; initially, you need to support them.

“But I think the logic behind China’s policy support is always clear — this support is not meant to be pumped up indefinitely.”

When China rose to industrial dominance in the 1990s, it realised that it could maximise output by developing hubs where all parts of a supply chain for a product are built in the same region. The same approach was applied to renewables, meaning battery factories were established near car plants, as an example.

“It’s not about subsidies. It’s about sound planning, sustained commitment, and targeted support,” Yang said.

As the Made In China plan unfolded, more and more power was needed to fuel these energy-hungry factories and the lifestyles of the burgeoning middle class. To keep up, China built new coal-fired power stations, even as it was installing more wind and solar.

This “dissonance” between China’s booming renewables and coal has meant China is painted both as a climate hero and a villain.

It’s also meant that emissions kept rising.

[However,] a decade after the Made in China plan began, the country’s clean energy transformation is staggering.

“It’s a really interesting policy because it’s a 10-year plan to become a world-leading clean tech manufacturer, which they’ve outright achieved,” said Caroline Wang, the China engagement lead at the think tank Climate Energy Finance. “They’ve made themselves indispensable in the new kind of global economy.”

China is home to half of the world’s solar, half of the world’s wind power and half of the world’s electric cars.

“In the month of April alone, 45.2GW of solar was added, more than Australia’s total cumulative solar power capacity,” Caroline Wang said.

“China’s renewable capacity has exponentially increased and that has also contributed to the drop in coal, in coal use and emissions. There is now a structural kind of decline of coal.”

That’s already having an impact on emissions:

Recent analysis from Carbon Brief found the country’s emissions dropped in the first quarter of 2025 by 1.6 per cent. China produces 30 per cent of the world’s emissions, making this a critical milestone for climate action.

With its unmatched economies of scale, this dramatic acceleration has also brought down the cost of electrification across the world and made China the world leader in clean technologies. Chinese-made electric cars are becoming more dominant on Australian [and Thai, and Malaysian, And Brazilian ....] roads — something that’s already happened for the solar panels and batteries installed across Australian homes.

“China has successfully helped the rest of the world lower the bar for them to embark on the transition. This makes it easier for many other countries to jump on board,” Ember’s Muyi Yang said.

“The transition has to be affordable, otherwise it will be extremely difficult for many developing countries.”

China’s clean energy exports in 2024 alone have already shaved 1 per cent off global emissions outside of China, according to Carbon Brief, and will continue to do so for the next 30 years.

Caroline Wang points out that this green era has also brought major economic benefits.

“It drove 10 per cent of their GDP last year — just the one industry, clean energy. It’s overtaken real estate, and that says a lot because real estate was the driving force of their economy until a few years ago. But now it’s been overtaken by clean energy,” she said.

China’s renewables expansion is also striking because it could not be more different to the direction of another world superpower, the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

Casting aside the climate damage it will wreak, the US is in a position to return to its “drill, baby, drill” roots because the country produces more than enough fossil fuels to cover its own needs.

That’s not the case for China. One of the key reasons it has pivoted to electrification is to get away from its dependence on imported fossil fuels. 

“I think there’s some deep strategic thinking … it’s not only about the environmental obligation or international commitment, and it can also not be fully explained by economic benefit in terms of jobs and investment,” Yang said.

“Energy is a basic input for economic activities. Energy security is critical because it’s critical for supporting a functioning economy.”

“China sees the old, the conventional fossil fuel growth model as not sustainable. And it is becoming increasingly unable to sustain long-term prosperity.”

When the world’s economies became hooked on fossil fuels, they became dependent on the countries that could supply them, and the price of fossil fuels increasingly dictated global markets.

“This dates back to issues in the 1970s with the [oil] crisis,” said Jorrit Gosens, a fellow at the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU.

“That’s really when people start to think about energy security, especially when we talk about China.

“China typically is described as very rich in coal, but very poor in natural gas and oil.”

Electrification is changing that, and China — the world’s biggest oil importer — is already weaning itself off with electric cars.

“If you go to Beijing today, you can honestly stand at intersections with four lanes going every way and it’ll be quiet as a mouse. The noisiest thing coming past will be a creaky bicycle,” Dr Gosens remarked.

Last year, crude oil imports to China fell for the first time in two decades, with the exception of the recent pandemic. China is now expected to hit peak oil in 2027, according to the International Energy Agency.

This is already having an impact on projections for global oil production, as China had driven two-thirds of the growth in oil demand in the decade to 2023.

The 20th century was dominated by countries rich in fossil fuels, and many of the world’s conflicts fought over access, power and exploitation of them.

Done right, electrification could change that too, as most countries will be producing their own electricity.

“Even if you have pretty poor-quality natural resources, you can still squeeze quite a bit of electricity out of a solar panel. It’s really changing the geopolitics,” the ANU’s Dr Gosens said.

“Renewable energy is the most secure form of energy that there is because you just eliminate the need for imports.

“But also the cost of it, right? It’s a stable cost. You lock it in as soon as you build it. You know what the price of your electricity is going to be. You get insulated from both those risks if you have more renewable energy.”

For Australia, one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas, there is plenty to take from this, with China’s furious electrification paving the way for the rest of the world to follow.

“Even if we have these climate wars here still … we can bicker about how quickly we should transition away from fossil fuels domestically [but] the rest of the world is ultimately going to decide how much they’ll be buying of our coal, gas and iron ore,” Dr Gosens said.

“I think that’s the biggest risk — that we fail to prepare for something and that these changes will be much quicker than we currently anticipate.”

For Climate Energy Finance’s Caroline Wang, it’s in Australia’s interest to be clear-eyed about what’s happening in China.

“I think a gap in Australia and other Western countries is knowledge and understanding. China is a complex country … it’s got good and bad. For the energy transition space, which is full of complexity, there’s a real need, for our strategic national interests, for Australia to understand what is happening in China.”

Finding hope in national self-interest and security might seem strange, but for Wang, China’s transformation makes her more optimistic about the climate crisis.

“This is the world’s largest emitter, the largest population. If they’ve managed to do it in quite a short time — a decade — it’s a kind of achievement that we haven’t seen any other country achieve. And so it’s very inspiring. Seeing that on the ground gave me hope for other countries, including Australia … there are lessons there to be learned.”