A humungous El Niño is on the way

From Zack Labe

Sea surface temperatures are already surging to record high levels for this time of year in key El Niño monitoring areas.

This will prolly push global temperatures towards 1.7 degrees above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. This is releasing heat into the atmosphere already accumulated in the sea, so it doesn't change the underlying trajectory — though it may move some world climate systems past tipping points — but it will still deliver terrible heatwaves, droughts, bushfires and floods. And meanwhile the underlying temperature is continuing to rise, and its increase appears to have been accelerating.

The warmest year on record

From Zack Labe 

The first preliminary analysis from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights 2024 as the warmest year on record globally (since at least 1891 in this data). Additional climate rankings will be released on 1/10/2025 for other datasets.

Graph and methods by https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/prod

Note the sharp uptrend from the mid-70s onwards, which is about  0.23 C per decade.

2024 to be hottest year ever

 From Zack Labe.

Notice how the curve is accelerating upwards.

The Arctic. Temperature up, ice down

 From Zack Labe

Zack Labe's monthly climate change health check

From Peter du Toit 

 Why is this trajectory continuing? We keep burning fossil fuels! “Power sector emissions [the largest source] grew by 1.6% in 2023

“There is a growing commitment to accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels. However, NONE of the major fossil fuel-producing countries or companies have committed to phasing out these activities to fully transition away from fossil fuel extraction or production

“Fossil CO2 emissions account for approximately 68% of current GHG emissions”

“Fossil CO2 emissions account for approximately 68% of current GHG emissions”   

There's the cure right there, people:    

STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.   

It's not as if we are without alternatives:  wind, solar, nuclear, EVs, electric planes, electric heat pumps .....  What we lack is gumption and determination, not technology.

Latest 6 months hottest ever

 Note the acceleration since 2010 from the (already rising) 1970-2010 trend.  This shows the temperature relative to the 1901-2000 average.  Relative to the 1850-1900 (pre-industrial) average, we are already up over 1.5 degrees C.  

Temperatures continue to rise.  And still we fail to act decisively.

Sea ice near record lows for the current date

 From a toot by Zack Labe

Both poles are now observing unusually low sea ice conditions, and therefore global sea ice extent is yet again near record low levels for the current date...

More sea ice graphics available at ZackLabe.comhttps://ten

Global warming off the charts

 From a toot by Zack Labe

Wow, the last three months have really shattered the previous September to November temperature record for our planet...

Using data from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsa

Note that this is the anomaly relative to the 1981-2010 baseline.
Relative to the 1850-1900 baseline (i.e., pre-industrialisation),
temperatures are now up over 1.5 degrees.

Yet the latest COP meeting shows that we (mankind) will once again do nothing to reduce emissions.