Hat tip to Ryan Katz-Rosene
"Quel foutoir" means "what a mess!" I can't read the signature of the cartoonist, but if you can, let me know, so I can give credit.
The chart below shows the official Japanese coinciding index through November, against the PMI index for Japan (December). The PMI quite often leads at the cyclical peak, sometimes by several months, but usually has a shorter lead at the trough of the cycle. The official leading index for Japan is falling, too, and so are some of my longer-leading indices. Japan hasn't raised interest rates, and though like most other countries, its inflation has risen to 35 year highs, it hasn't risen as much as, say, the US's. So one might expect that it could avoid a deep recession. Still, it's strongly connected to the world economy. We shall see. What is clear is that the recession has begun.
Just a quick chart to keep you updated. A modest (0.1 per cent) fall in Japan's preliminary ("flash") manufacturing PMI in October. The chart shows the extreme-adjusted and smoothed series for Japan. Trend still down, now only a whisker above the 50% recession line.
From EMBER
The G7 has already agreed to cut reliance on Russian energy. Last Wednesday, Europe came forward with its plan to cut Russian energy imports. The new plan, dubbed REPowerEU will, when combined with existing green measures, enable Europe to save €100 billion each year on gas, oil and coal imports, the EU executive said. Under the plan, Russian gas usage will be reduced by two thirds by the end of 2022.
REPowerEU has three major elements: energy savings, boosting renewables, and diversifying European supplies of oil and gas. It promises investment of €300 billion by 2030, of which only 3% (€10 billion) is for fossil fuel diversification, and the remaining 97% (€290 billion) is for clean energy investment.
The EU increased its 2030 target to get 45% of all its energy from renewables, up from the previous 40% target. For the power sector, 69% of electricity needs will come from renewables (previously the implicit target was 65%). Most of this increase is from building more wind and solar. When nuclear power is included, an estimated 87% of Europe’s electricity is expected to be clean by 2030, up from 63% in 2021.
This should help propel Europe’s grids towards 100% clean power by 2035, aligning with Biden’s pledge of 100% clean power by 2035. In May 2021, the G7 agreed to “commit to achieve an overwhelmingly decarbonised power system in the 2030s”. This year the G7 could be positioned to push that wording further to commit to 100% clean power by 2035, but an open question is where Japan stands on that target.
Last week, Japanese coal prices set a record high, as the Asian-benchmark Newcastle coal traded at an all-time high of $442 per tonne. That’s four times the price it was only 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Japan’s gas LNG import price (JKM spot price) has receded from its high, but is still $20/mmbtu, which is twice the level 12 months ago.
Japan has already committed to cut reliance on Russian energy. With sky-high fossil fuel prices, an accelerated transition from coal and gas electricity to clean electricity makes more sense now than ever.
Japan is behind in its electricity transition. In 2021, the country had half the proportion of clean electricity compared to the EU, and 11% wind and solar generation compared to the EU’s 19%. If implemented, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s (METI) Strategic Energy Plan from October 2021 shows Japan’s clean power will actually rise faster than the EU. However, this is only because Japan plans to reactivate many of its idled nuclear reactors.
Compared to Japan, the rise in EU renewables is planned to be meteoric. In the next nine years, the EU is forecast to move an additional one third (32%) of its total electricity production to renewables. Japan’s plan is for only a 13% shift.
If Japan embraces the same momentum on clean power as the EU, could it be enough to put Japan on target for 100% clean power by 2035?
This will depend on the extent of ambition for solar and wind. The EU targets commit it to about 52%. However, METI is projecting just 20% for Japan. In the IEA’s “Achieving Net Zero Electricity Sectors in G7 Members”, wind and solar reach 42% of G7 electricity generation in 2030.
The latest set of 1.5-aligned scenarios used by the IPCC broadly align with the IEA’s milestones of 40% of solar and wind by 2030, and needing near-100% clean power in the OECD by 2035. Here’s what Japan can do to meet these targets:
Solar: The EU is planning 750 GW (DC) of solar by 2030, which means 64 GW per year from 2021 to 2030. Central to this plan is building new rooftop solar. The EU proposes making solar panels mandatory for all public and new residential buildings by 2025 and 2029, respectively. As a result, rooftop solar will make up over half the EU’s total solar capacity by 2030.
By contrast, Japan last year installed only 6 GW of solar, according to IEA data, which is a tenth of the EU projected build-rate. Only one tenth of Japan’s solar went onto rooftops, with the vast majority of solar additions in the form of solar farms. This ignores what has been the bedrock of Australia and now the EU’s approach to expanding their solar capacity. It also means that Japan has a significant opportunity to tap into the potential for rooftop solar, just as the EU is now planning to do. The EU’s ambition on rooftop solar shows that the current perception that Japan is doing everything it can to expand renewables is incorrect.
What’s more, the costs for rooftop solar are not high. The latest results for Germany’s rooftop solar auctions on 15 May 2022 were for prices of $90 (€85) per megawatt hour. The price was 23% higher than the first auction in July 2021, as international inflation pushed up costs. However, compared to coal and gas price rises, renewables are deflationary. Expanding Japan’s rooftop solar industry represents an incredible untapped opportunity to further increase the security and sustainability of Japan’s energy system.
Wind: For onshore wind, Germany is planning to set aside 2% of the country’s landmass for the development of onshore wind energy. For offshore wind, just four EU countries – Belgium, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands – have announced an offshore wind target of 65 GW by 2030. A further 50 GW is promised from the UK alone by 2030, including floating wind. Combined, that’s more than ten times Japan’s current 10 GW target, announced back in 2020.
The global electricity transition is ramping up. The EU is aiming for 80%+ clean electricity by 2030 with its new renewable energy targets.
In the lead-up to the G7, many will ask if it is possible for Japan to achieve a 100% clean energy system by 2035. While this target will certainly be a challenge, it is definitely achievable. The obvious place to start is scaling up rooftop solar and wind energy, which could help Japan create a far more secure and sustainable energy system by 2035.
Japan can reach a target of 100% clean power by 2035. Setting this target at the G7 in June would also send a powerful message to the global community that Japan is focussed not just on an efficient energy system, but on rapidly scaling up renewables in a manner that would increase long term energy security and keep costs low.
From AP News
Tokyo’s Shibuya is famed for its Scramble Crossing, where crowds of people crisscross the intersection in a scene symbolizing urban Japan’s congestion and anonymity. It may have added another boasting right.
Tokyu Railways’ trains running through Shibuya and other stations were switched to power generated only by solar and other renewable sources starting April 1.
That means the carbon dioxide emissions of Tokyu’s sprawling network of seven train lines and one tram service now stand at zero, with green energy being used at all its stations, including for vending machines for drinks, security camera screens and lighting.
Tokyu, which employs 3,855 people and connects Tokyo with nearby Yokohama, is the first railroad operator in Japan to have achieved that goal. It says the carbon dioxide reduction is equivalent to the annual average emissions of 56,000 Japanese households.
The technology used by Tokyu’s trains is among the most ecologically friendly options for railways. The other two options are batteries and hydrogen power.
And so is it just a publicity stunt, or is Tokyu moving in the right direction?
Ryo Takagi, a professor at Kogakuin University and specialist in electric railway systems, believes the answer isn’t simple because how train technology evolves is complex and depends on many uncertain societal factors.
In a nutshell, Tokyu’s efforts are definitely not hurting and are probably better than doing nothing. They show the company is taking up the challenge of promoting clean energy, he said.
“But I am not going out of my way to praise it as great,” Takagi said.
Bigger gains would come from switching from diesel trains in rural areas to hydrogen powered lines and from switching gas-guzzling cars to electric, he said.
Tokyu paid an undisclosed amount to Tokyo Electric Power Co., the utility behind the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, for certification vouching for its use of renewables, even as Japan continues to use coal and other fossil fuels.
“We don’t see this as reaching our goal but just a start,” said Assistant Manager Yoshimasa Kitano at Tokyu’s headquarters, a few minutes’ walk from the Scramble Crossing.
Such steps are crucial for Japan, the world’s sixth-biggest carbon emitter, to attain its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2050.
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| Tokyu Railways. Note 3 ft 6 inches (Cape) gauge The high-speed rail is 4' 8½" (standard) gauge |
From Asia Times
Non-governmental organizations have filed a formal complaint against the Japan International Cooperation Agency – the first of its kind – to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The complaint addresses JICA’s false assertion that its bond issued on US markets was free from involvement in coal-fueled power generation, when in fact its plans involve continuing to fund coal-fired power plants in Bangladesh.
While climate impacts are already ravaging that country (in May 2020, Cyclone Amphan caused widespread damage and forced the relocation of 2 million people), JICA has announced plans to fund Phase 2 of the 1,200-megawatt Matarbari coal plant, highlighting the economic development outcomes that will come with the project.
Located on a densely populated island in Cox’s Bazar district that is home to 100,000 people, the Matarbari coal plant will bring devastation to the community instead of the development that JICA has promised.
It is estimated that air pollution from the Matarbari Phase 1 coal plant will cause up to 14,000 premature deaths during its operational years, according to Greenpeace. Air quality in parts of Bangladesh is already ranked as among the worst in the world.
The project fails to meet JICA’s own Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations, which state that communities affected by its projects must be compensated at full replacement cost. The guidelines also state that countries hosting JICA projects must make efforts to enable people affected to improve their standard of living and their income opportunities to be restored to pre-project levels.
Two turbines of the Phase 1 plant were built on land meant for shrimp farming, crops, and salt production, the disturbance of which have destroyed the livelihoods of people in Matarbari. Those displaced by the project were not given prior notice as required by the Land Acquisition Act of 1982, nor given any fair compensation for damages.
Japan has some of the strongest emission standards at home, but the overseas coal plants funded by its public agencies apply lenient emission limits on air pollutants. They rely on outdated technology for reducing pollution, emitting many times the amount of sulfur dioxide and other toxins than an average new coal plant in Japan.
At the recent COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, newly elected Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke of Japan’s “determination” to address the “shared human challenge of climate change with all our strength.” He committed the equivalent of an additional US$10 billion in public and private assistance over five years toward Asia’s decarbonization with the aim of advancing zero-emissions goals, taking the country’s total financial pledge to $70 billion.
But in contradiction to this statement, Kishida emphasized the role of thermal energy as a reliable power source in Asia and expressed support for dubious technological “fixes,” including the burning of coal combined with ammonia and hydrogen to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants.
Japan’s reluctance explicitly to rule out coal-fired power sees the country trailing behind other large economies on climate action.
Bangladesh’s energy future lies in renewables, not in coal or natural gas. After 50 years of independence, Bangladeshi energy experts should have more of a say in preparing the energy sector master plan than foreign experts from JICA.
Japanese investment in Bangladesh should take the form of scaling up its renewable-energy transition to benefit from the rapid decline in the cost of solar and wind energy globally and for power storage technologies. Coal and natural gas are carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and will become a burden for Bangladesh in the long run.
Prime Minister Kishida and his Liberal Democratic Party must prioritize action on climate change by ushering in new government policies to combat the crisis, starting by ruling out funding Phase 2 of the Matarbari coal plant.
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| Source: Worldometer |
The Guardian ran a fascinating article on the gut biome that we, all unknowing, carry around inside us, and which is crucial to our health. Bacteria, fungi and archaea in your gut defend you against disease, and there appear to be specific organisms which help you lose weight, produce the essential fatty acids your brain needs, reduce allergies and inflammation.
The history of industrial civilisation is that we have 'dominion' over nature, and therefore, we can do what we like. At a macro scale, the extreme weather over the last few years has demonstrated the falsity of that particular conceit. Our discovery of the critical rôle our gut biome plays in our health is busy reinforcing that message.
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| Centenarians per 100,000 population Source: New Scientist |
This article from New Atlas discusses how a healthy biome leads to very long life spans.
The relationship between lifespan and the bacteria living inside our gut is perhaps one of the stranger corners of scientific research right now. A new study published in the journal Nature, investigating the microbiomes of centenarians, offers clues to how gut bacteria may engender healthy aging.
The research looked at fecal samples from 160 centenarians in Japan. The cohort had an average age of 107 and the majority were free of chronic diseases such as cancer or diabetes. The results were compared to an elderly cohort, aged in their mid-80s, and a young cohort aged between 20 and 50.
In general the researchers detected a number of bacterial species specifically enriched in the centenarian group compared to the two controls. The bacteria found in higher levels in the centenarians were known to play a major role in the production of secondary bile acids.
Bile acids are vital elements for effective digestion and metabolism. Primary bile acids are synthesized in the liver while secondary bile acids are generated by bacteria in our gut.
The main finding from this new research is the hypothesis that these centenarians potentially remain relatively healthy into extreme old age by maintaining a diverse microbiome modulated by high volumes of these secondary bile acids. The study particularly focused on one secondary bile acid called isoalloLCA.
The researchers conducted mice studies and found directly feeding the animals isoalloLCA stifled the growth of a number of pathogenic gut bacteria species known to play a role in inflammation. This indicates isoalloLCA, and other secondary bile acids, may play a key role in keeping gut bacterial populations in healthy equilibrium.
“The ecological interaction between the host and different processes in bacteria really suggests the potential of these gut bugs for health maintenance,” says Damian Plichta, co-first author on the new research.
The findings follow on from other centenarian microbiome studies indicating healthy aging can be linked with certain gut bacteria profiles. Kim Barrett, a researcher from UC San Diego who did not work on this new study, says it is early days for this kind of research with studies still only revealing correlations, but these new findings certainly offer a plausible causal mechanism worthy of further investigation.
“…bile acids are emerging as a new class of “enterohormones” beyond their classic role in fat digestion and absorption,” notes Barrett. “It is certainly conceivable that manipulating concentrations of specific bile acids, whether microbially or by giving them directly, could exert health benefits.”
As one of the secondary bile acids detected in the study was found to inhibit the growth of a specific type of antibiotic resistant bacteria, one of the more immediate outcomes from this study is further investigations into how bile acids could be manipulated to treat related antibiotic-resistant bacterial diseases. Ramnik Xavier, co-corresponding author on the study, says this preliminary work also offers other researchers a starting point to investigate specific molecules to engender healthy aging.
“A unique cohort, international collaboration, computational analysis, and experimental microbiology all enabled this discovery that the gut microbiome holds the keys to healthy aging,” says Xavier. “Our collaborative work shows that future studies focusing on microbial enzymes and metabolites can potentially help us identify starting points for therapeutics.”
The new study was published in the journal Nature.
From a Twitter feed by Stephen Stapczynski, a Bloomberg business reporter
Japan revises its 2030 power mix targets, cutting fossil fuels and raising renewables in a bid to reduce pollution
The biggest loser? LNG
Under the draft plan, annual LNG power generation is slated to fall roughly 50% by the end of the decade. That's more than coal.
This is a surprising shift for Japan, the world's top LNG importer that pioneered the industry.Japan will require less LNG in 2030 than its previous plan, posing a potential dilemma for its suppliers from Qatar to Australia.Nuclear power's role in Japan's energy mix remains unchanged from the previous plan: 20-22% of power generation by 2030. Japan will require 27 of its remaining 36 reactors to resume operations to hit this target. That won't be easy. only 10 have restarted.The renewable energy target is just as ambitious. Japan wants renewables (solar, wind, hydro) to make up 36-38% of the power mix by 2030. That's nearly double current levels and will require solar panels on millions of rooftops. The old target was 22-24%Japan aims for hydrogen and ammonia-fired power generation to make up 1% of the 2030 power mix. That's a new addition to the nation’s energy plan. Over the long-term, utilities aim to shift to green hydrogen/ammonia to meet 2050 net-zero goals.So why is Japan revising its power mix targets?It is all about its Paris deal commitments. Earlier this year, Japan strengthened its 2030 Paris goals, raising its target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 46% by 2030 from 2013 levels.Looking further out, Japan will need to significantly reduce its dependence on fossil fuels to hit its 2050 net-zero pledgeThat means they must:> Build a whole lot of offshore wind> Consume a ton of green hydrogen/ammonia> Boost energy efficiencyThere is no doubt that Japan's revised 2030 energy targets are ambitious. It's unclear if they will be able to meet them. But the new plan does indicate that the government is shifting its view on LNG, which for a very long time it touted as a cleaner alternative to other fuels.The 20% nuclear target is incredibly challenging to meet, said Woodmac’s Whitworth, who sees atomic generation only hitting 9% in 2030. “Over-optimism on nuclear makes the plan look unrealistic and could undermine plans to reduce coal and gas share”Great analysis from on Japan's revised 2030 power mix targets BNEF analysts expect gas to make up just 15% (!) of the power mix by 2030, well below coal. Japan seen missing nuclear target, and that gap will be filled with coal (not LNG)
A few thoughts about this plan:
From The Guardian
Japan’s famous cherry blossoms have reached their flowery peak in many places earlier this year than at any time since formal records began nearly 70 years ago, with experts saying the climate crisis is the likely cause.
Referred to in Japan as sakura, the blossoms used to reach their peak in April, coinciding with the start of the new school and business year. Yet the blooms have been creeping earlier, and now most years the flowers are largely gone before the first day of school.
This year, peak bloom was reached on 26 March in the ancient capital of Kyoto, the earliest since the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting the data in 1953 and 10 days ahead of the 30-year average. Similar records were set this year in more than a dozen cities across Japan.
Some say it is the earliest peak bloom ever, based on records from historic documents, diaries and poetry books from Kyoto. Osaka Prefecture University environmental scientist Yasuyuki Aono, who tracks such documents, said the earliest blooms he has found before this year were on 27 March in the years 1612, 1409 and 1236, although there are not records for some years.
“We can say it’s most likely because of the impact of the global warming,” said Shunji Anbe, an official at the observations division at the Japan Meteorological Agency.
The agency tracks 58 “benchmark” cherry trees across the country, and this year 40 of those already have reached their peak bloom and 14 have done so in record time. The trees normally bloom for about two weeks each year from first bud to all the blossoms falling off.
Cherry trees are sensitive to temperature changes and the timing of their blooming can provide valuable data for climate change studies, Anbe says.
According to the agency data, the average temperature for March in Kyoto has climbed to 10.6C (51.1F) in 2020 from 8.6C in 1953. So far this year’s average March temperature in Japan has been 12.4C.
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| Source: The BBC Data through 2019, but 2020 was as hot as 2016. |
From Climate News Network
The Japanese government has an unsolvable problem: what to do with more than a million tonnes of water contaminated with radioactive tritium, in store since the Fukushima disaster and growing at more than 150 tonnes a day.
The water, contained in a thousand giant tanks, has been steadily accumulating since the nuclear accident in 2011. It has been used to cool the three reactors that suffered a meltdown as a result of the tsunami that hit the coast.
Tritium is a radioactive element produced as a by-product by nuclear reactors under normal operation, and is present everywhere in the fabric of the reactor buildings, so water used for cooling them is bound to be contaminated by it.
To avoid another potentially catastrophic meltdown in the remaining fuel the cooling has to continue indefinitely, so the problem continues to worsen. The government has been told that Japan will run out of storage tanks by 2022.
The issue is further complicated because the Fukushima wastewater contains a number of other radionuclides, not in such high quantities, but sufficient to cause damage. Ian Fairlie, an independent consultant on radioactivity in the environment, is extremely concerned about Japan’s plans and the health of the local people.
In a detailed assessment of the situation he says other highly dangerous radioactive substances, including caesium-137 and strontium-90, are also in the water stored at Fukushima.
The government has not yet responded though, because officially it is still considering what to do. However, it is likely to argue that pumping the contaminated water into the sea is acceptable because it will be diluted millions of times, and anyway seawater does already contain minute quantities of tritium.
Dr Fairlie is among many who think this is too dangerous, but he admits there are no easy solutions.
He says: “Barring a miraculous technical discovery which is unlikely, I think TEPCO/Japanese Gov’t [TEPCO is the Tokyo Electric Power Company, owner of the Fukushima Daiichi plant] will have to buy more land and keep on building more holding tanks to allow for tritium decay to take place. Ten half-lives for tritium is 123 years: that’s how long these tanks will have to last – at least.
“This will allow time not only for tritium to decay, but also for politicians to reflect on the wisdom of their support for nuclear power.”
Insightful: Japan doesn’t even require people to wear masks. Yet people do it anyway because people respect each other and put protecting public safety as paramount. As result, here is Japan versus the US and even Europe. If you can barely see Japan, it’s at the bottom.
Research shows wearing masks can significantly reduce risk of coronavirus transmission.
A study published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that requiring people to wear masks in epicenters of new coronavirus cases may have prevented tens of thousands of infections from the virus.
For the study, researchers examined how the new coronavirus is transmitted by reviewing infection trends in Wuhan, China; Italy; and New York City—all of which were early epicenters of the virus' transmission. The researchers also observed the precautions implicated to curb the virus' spread in those epicenters and compared the rates of coronavirus infection in Italy and New York City before and after rules regarding face masks and covering were put in place.
The researchers found that "airborne transmission" appears to be "the dominant route for infection" from the new coronavirus, according to the study. In addition, they found that coronavirus infection trends changed once governments enforced mask-wearing rules in Italy in April 6 and in New York City on April 17.
In New York, for instance, the daily new infection rate dropped by 3% per day after a policy requiring that people wear face masks or coverings in public took effect, the researchers found. Overall, the researchers estimated that requirements related to face masks and coverings "significantly reduced the number of infections … by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9."
Further, the researchers concluded that "[f]ace covering prevents both airborne transmission by blocking atomization and inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols and contact transmission by blocking viral shedding of droplets." Based on their findings, they wrote that CDC and the World Health Organization should enforce stricter policies on wearing face masks or coverings to further curb the novel coronavirus' spread. "The current mitigation measures, such as social distancing, quarantine, and isolation implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public," the researchers wrote.
Separately, Richard Stutt, a researcher at the University of Cambridge, on Wednesday published a model in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A that showed widespread use of face masks and coverings can help to reduce the new coronavirus' spread—even if the masks or coverings don't provide complete protection against droplets that may contain the pathogen. Stutt said wearing face masks or coverings can help to significantly curb the coronavirus' transmission when paired with lockdown orders.
"You can do lockdown, you can do masks, but you get the best result when you combine them," Stutt said.
In addition, a review of 172 observational studies published earlier this month in The Lancet also concluded that wearing face masks or coverings can help curb the risk of coronavirus infection and transmission, the Post reports. Holger Schünemann, a co-author of the review and an epidemiologist and physician at McMaster University, said the review indicated that, "[i]n multiple ways … the use of masks is highly protective in health care and community settings."
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| Source: My calculations I haven't had the time to update IP recently, but the decline in the PMI is likely mirrored in IP |
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| Source: Various, my calculations, my graphics Again, I haven't been estimating world IP for a couple of months. |
