Is there any hope at all?

There are some extraordinary things happening in the renewables space.

1. Solar power is up a lot (it varies by country) almost everywhere.  The cost of solar continues to decline, and because the cost of storage is plunging, "firming" solar electricity is becoming easier and cheaper.

2. CATL has introduced improved sodium-ion batteries. Sodium is roughly 1/5th as costly as lithium, so sodium-ion batteries will be much cheaper than lithium-ion. They also have a much longer life, theoretically allowing cars to travel 3 million miles before the batteries wear out. These new batteries will have 10,000 cycles, which will mean that even if they are charged and discharged 100% every day, they will still last 27 years.  Fantastic for stationary (grid) storage.  

3. EVs continue to make up an ever larger proportion of total car sales. In China, 1/3rd of the world's car market, they are +-50%, heading straight towards 100%. EVs (from China) now have the same sticker price as petrol cars. For example, here in Oz, the cheapest BYD Dolphin costs the same as the cheapest petrol Toyota Corolla. As battery prices plunge, EVs are only going to become ever more attractive.


Emissions from land transport and electricity generation are just under 50% of total global emissions. It seems plausible that these will have nearly ended by 2040, putting us halfway down the road to zero emissions. We need to do more (stop eating red meat, replace gas/oil heating with heat pumps/electrical heating, fix cement, steel and air travel, stop land clearing) to bend that curve towards a better outcome, but for the first time in years, I feel optimistic that we at last have a chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change.  

What can you do to help?  You can cut your personal emissions, by as much as 20-30%, by becoming vegetarian, or at least, stopping eating beef and mutton, and not using milk.   If mankind did that, we would cut emissions by +-70%, adding together the decline in emissions from agriculture and transport and electricity generation.  The more we cut emissions, the sooner temperatures will stop rising.

It has been possible to argue that anything we do is pointless, because China's emissions have just kept on rising.  But this year, or next, China's emissions, as the country installs more and more solar, and EV sales continue to explode, will peak and start falling, and that particular excuse for inaction will disappear.

Let's do this.  

Vitasoy Australia's biggest year yet

The soy milk I drink,
which is the closest to the taste of cow's milk as I remember it.

From the ABC

A major Australian plant-based milk processor is forecasting its highest yearly production as consumers continue to embrace the dairy alternative.

Vitasoy Australia is tipped to produce about 70 million litres of soy, almond, oat, rice, and coconut milks on top of a new line of soy and oat-based yoghurts this year.

The factory, in Baranduda in north-east Victoria, opened in 2002 and at the time produced about 10 million litres a year.

Vitasoy Australia chief executive David Tyack said the market was projected to keep growing.

"In the past 10 years, there hasn't been a contraction in the market," Mr Tyack said.

"It's gone from the hippy-alternative sold in health food shops to a mainstream product. Forty per cent of Australian households now have a plant-based milk in the fridge."

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the amount of dairy substitutes purchased from supermarkets and other food retailers jumped another 14 per cent in 2020–21.

Almond milk had shown an increase of 31 per cent in apparent consumption from 2020–22.

Mr Tyack attributed the market's growth to a range of consumer behaviours including the "rise of veganism" and people wanting plant-based milk for health reasons.

"There's a needs basis. People who can't have lactose, and for coeliacs the only way to engage with milk is through rice milk," he said.

"Also, there are not many coffee shops that don't offer soy, almond, or oat milk."

Vitasoy said its most popular product for the past five years had been almond milk, however Mr Tyack expected oat milk to soon become the number one plant-based milk.


"Oat has gone absolutely ballistic in the past four years," Mr Tyack said.

"It's the most sustainable crop in the plant-based milk game, uses less water, less emissions and, in terms of taste, it's quite a neutral taste so it's a good gateway jump from dairy. It's creamy and in the coffee sense it makes coffee shine through."

Although soy milk was less popular than oat and almond, Mr Tyack said it still had a place in the market.

"The role that soy plays is that it's the closest to dairy milk in terms of protein calcium," he said.

"Almond and oat don't come anywhere near to the delivery of benefits."

Looking ahead, Mr Tyack said the future was bright for plant-based milks, however there was a limit to the growth.

"On top of the current 40 per cent, we know from our research there's another 30 per cent of households that are open to having plant-based milk in their repertoire but that's probably the limit," he said.

"The other 30 per cent of the market are dairy loyalists and won't consider a plant-based offer." [39 years ago, 90% of the public "wouldn't consider a plant-based offer".  We've come a long way.]

The plant-based milk market is still small compared to the dairy industry.

According to Dairy Australia, more than 8 billion litres of milk was produced last year, however that was the lowest raw milk production in 30 years.

This is a park in the area where the factory is located, 
which is in the foothills of the Great Dividing Range.