Showing posts with label tea party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tea party. Show all posts

Monday, December 18, 2023

How tea saved lives



From the BBC


Tea has been many things in its time – a global commodity, a comforting beverage, and even, in the eyes of some Bostonians 250 years ago this week, a symbol of oppressive politics. But one role you might not have attributed to tea is that of a life-saving health intervention.

In a recent paper in the Review of Statistics and Economics, economist Francisca Antman of the University of Colorado, Boulder, makes a convincing case that the explosion of tea as an everyman's drink in late 1700s England saved many lives. This would not have been because of any antioxidants or other substances inherent to the lauded leaf.

Instead, the simple practice of boiling water for tea, in an era before people understood that illness could be caused by water-borne pathogens, may have been enough to keep many from an early grave.

English demographics from this era have long contained a puzzle for historians. Between 1761 and 1834, the annual death rate declined substantially, from 28 to 25 per 1,000 people. But at the same time, wages do not seem to have risen much and standards of living arguably did not increase. In fact, with the rise of the industrial revolution, more and more people were crowding into towns whose sanitation left much to be desired. "I would say it's not a settled debate," says Antman.

The idea that tea might be the missing link here, thanks to the need to boil water for a proper brew, had been floated by historians in the past. Boiling water kills bacteria that cause diarrheal diseases like dysentery, which was often called "flux" or "bloody flux" in death records.

"With people coming into cities to work, you would expect, given the level of sanitation they have, that the big killer is water," says Antman. But it remained a somewhat fuzzy idea, interesting in theory but difficult to prove.

Antman developed a way to test it, using detailed geographical information about more than 400 parishes across England. There is a simple assumption at the heart of her study: more water sources in an area likely means cleaner water. If one source was contaminated, the inhabitants of a parish could go to another. What's more, if people were closer to the sources of rivers – something Antman infers from parishes' elevation – that water was likely safer than in parishes further downstream.

By assigning parishes an inferred level of water quality, Antman could see whether areas with worse water quality saw a bigger decline in mortality than those with good water.

In terms of testing this hypothesis, the key date is 1785, the moment when tea suddenly became affordable for the vast majority of Britons. There were many things already to recommend tea as a drink of the masses: you could make a satisfying brew with just a small amount of leaves, the leaves could be reused for multiple pots, and tea was potentially cheaper than beer, which was rendered expensive both by the complex process required to make it and by a tax on malt.

But when 1784's Tea and Windows Act went into effect, the tax on tea went from 119% to just 12.5% and tea consumption exploded. By the end of the 18th Century, even very poor peasants were having tea twice a day, tea historian Alan Macfarlane writes.

To see if this change correlated with decreased mortality, Antman compared death rates before and after this watershed moment. For this she drew on the remarkable work of demographers E A Wrigley and R S Schofield, who in the mid-20th Century collected parish records from all over England spanning 1541 to 1871, including deaths.

As expected, Antman found that death rates declined in both parishes with good water and those with bad – but there was a significant difference in the size of the decline. Parishes with bad water saw death rates drop 18% more than those with good water.

What's more, she looked to see whether deaths in London from waterborne diseases like "bloody flux", and deaths from airborne pathogens like tuberculosis, or "consumption", were linked to levels of tea imports. Indeed, flux deaths declined when tea imports went up, while TB deaths remained about the time.

She also checked to see whether deaths in children – not known, in this age or any other, for being major consumers of tea – changed in London with tea imports, and found that there did not seem to be a decline in deaths of those ages two to five.

Interestingly, there was a slight decline in infant deaths, perhaps reflecting the fact that if tea-drinking parents had less diarrheal disease, their very young children might have been protected a bit as well – though Antman points out there is no way to know for sure.

For Antman, who primarily works on issues related to developing nations, this natural experiment in England all those years ago reflects a fundamental truth: sometimes people's existing behaviours can make more of a difference to their health than an explicit intervention might.

Building more privies, developing better plumbing and sewage systems, and teaching people to keep drinking water and wastewater scrupulously separate all might have extended people's lives, had such interventions been widely understood and available.

But with relatively little change to their habits, merely an increase in a behavior they already enjoyed, people seem to have protected themselves. All part of the pleasure of a simple cup of tea.
Source:  BBC, Getty Images

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

So last decade

Source



The argument that we can’t do anything about global warming because our living standards would plummet as coal is so much cheaper than renewables is so last decade.  The cheapest source of electricity in the US now is wind power.

In the case of solar power in the US, utility-scale solar power contracts are being signed to deliver power at between 5 and 7.5 cents per kWh, even after removing the investment tax credit worth roughly 2 cents per kWh.  So that before the tax credit, solar is now competitive with gas and new coal plants. Then there’s this (from a utility company’s annual report!). Extraordinary.

Even without a carbon tax, fossil fuels are no longer “cheap”. Even 3 years—2 years! —ago, you could have made that point and been correct. But the collapse (there is no other word) in the price of renewables is so dramatic that renewables are either cheaper or soon will be cheaper than fossil fuels. And if you add in the externalities (and you should) all the fossil fuels are much more expensive than renewables. Gas is still viable (though expensive), because peaking-power plant using gas can be easily and quickly started up when needed and then switched off later. Coal is no good for that (think of how long it takes you to get a coal fire going)

The coal spruikers go on and on about the “variability” of renewables. But the output of widely separated wind farms is uncorrelated, which means that two wind farms separated by five or six hundred kms can in effect act as base-load power generators.  And wind and solar power are negatively correlated if there is any correlation at all: it’s often windy when the sun isn’t shining (for example, when a cold front comes through, or during a thunderstorm)

Be that as it may, there are already several places in the world where renewables provide more than 40% of electricity generation without grid instability: for example, the state of South Australia, Denmark, Spain, and many where renewables are over 25%.  And that’s before batteries have started to play a role in stabilising the grid and provided for periods when both sun and wind are absent.  But—and this is key— battery costs are falling by 15-20% per annum. When Tesla’s gigafactory is completed in 2017, battery costs will fall by 2/3rds. Grid storage will be cheaper than installing new base-load capacity.
Coal is finished, even without a carbon tax/cap-and-trade. Last year, for the first time in 15 years, total coal demand in China fell, by 3%, and CO2 emissions by 1%. This at a time when real GDP grew by 7.6%, an extraordinary decline in the energy:GDP intensity of nearly 9%. In one year!!!!! And China is choosing renewables not just or even because it knows global warming is real and dangerous (it has no demented plutocrats funding denialist websites and political campaigns) but because renewables are clean and cheap and coal is filthy, and because renewables give China energy independence. China is by far the world’s largest consumer of coal, and of course, the world’s largest emitter of CO2. Most of the world’s 10 largest solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers are Chinese.  It makes sense from every possible point of view for the Chinese to switch to renewables.  And they already are.
In India, the great hope of coal barons, 25% of the population is not even connected to the grid. And they prolly never will be, because for under $100, small solar panels with an inbuilt battery, mobile phone charger and LED light are being sold to peasants outside the grid. Who needs an expensive to build and maintain grid?  In addition, India plans to install 100 gW of solar (currently 3 gW capacity is installed) to feed in to the grid. Of course, actual production from solar panels in those latitudes is only 30 – 40% of nameplate capacity, but already about 30% of India’s electricity is generated by renewables/hydro. This percentage will only rise—at the expense of coal.
No doubt existing coal-fired power stations globally will continue to pollute until they reach the end of their safe working lives. But no one is going to build new coal power stations, because the cost of the renewables triad (wind, solar, batteries) is falling inexorably and rapidly. No prudent investor will provide funding for the 30-year life of a new power station.  Frankly, no prudent investor would buy or invest in a coal mine. Certainly, I hold none in the portfolios I manage.
The denialists are still fighting last decade’s battles. No rational and informed person doubts the reality of global warming, and given the variability in likely outcomes, with risk multiplied by cost clearly to the upside (risk alone is not the best metric: saying temps will rise 2 C plus or minus 1 C doesn’t show that 2+1 is much more costly for the world than 2-1) prudent ppl will incline towards renewables especially if they are already cheaper.
The fall in renewables costs is so rapid that we keep on being surprised.  The latest data show incontrovertibly that even without a carbon tax, renewables are viable. And the crackpot climate change denialists have become irrelevant (though they remain infuriating) because the push towards replacing fossil fuels with renewables is no longer driven just by sentiment or ethics or fears about the state of the world or by the greens (I vote Green by the way) but by relentless economics. Hard-headed and -hearted finance and business people and politicians will choose renewables because that decision makes sense—despite the shrill denunciations of the coal-funded  denialists.  If these hard-headed people  can clothe themselves in virtue doing profitable things which also stop global warming they surely will.

I am not a scientist let alone a physicist. But I have been managing money for 40 years, and I can see an emerging trend. That is how I make money for my clients and myself. I don’t fully understand the technicals of climate science. But the broad thrust of the argument is (a) crystal-clear and (b) borne out by the data. Equally, the march of renewables is (a) obvious, (b) inevitable and inexorable and (c) driven by a compelling economic logic.




Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Navel Gazing

This cartoon is about the utterly appalling Oz government of Captain Clownshoes.

See more Wilcox cartoons here.


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Lifestyles

The cartoon refers to The Cane Toad's designed-to-annoy comment that remote-community Aborigines live there for "lifestyle" reasons.

What a doos.

[See more Broelmans here]



Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Tea Party loons

In Florida, likely to be subject to even worse floods in future, the Tea Party Republican administration forbade their staff from using the phrases 'climate change', 'global warming' and 'sea level rise' in all official emails, letters and publications.  'Sea level rise' is to be referred to as 'nuisance flooding'!

Demented.

Read more here.



Sunday, March 1, 2015

Causes of death in Oz

Our malign and loathsome government has picked on "terrorism" to try and lift its poll ratings. Now tell me, why would you pick on that, when there are other much more serious causes of death?  Why reduce and remove our freedoms for something which isn't even in the top ten causes of death in Australia?  Why?

{and note, that's terrorism deaths from 1978, not 2003, which are the data for all the others)


The Cane Toad

With any luck, our loathsome PM, Tony Abbott, alias the Cane Toad or Captain Clownshoes, will soon be gone.  It's telling when even a former Liberal PM (Liberal in Oz = right-wing) finds Captain Clownshoes too much.


Sunday, January 11, 2015

The Narrative

A guest blog post from Adam Phillips



I want to try to put into words what I and people like me think it is that fuels the disdain that we feel about what's going on.

This is not about whose political philosophy is right, and it's not about some nice abstractions about the power of the state, the value of fostering a climate of individual responsibility, about resolving the deficit, about an active government, or a not-active government, or about gun rights.

What animates us so much...and gives us so much animus...is that in open sight, conservative politicians are joining with the wealthiest people and businesses on the planet to create a permanent plutocracy. A government ruled by business and whose principles are dictated solely by the desires of the wealthy... a government to whom business is not accountable, and, actually, which is accountable to business. They are not interested in the middle class and have no concern at all about its inexorable and continued atrophy, and no concern about the widening gap between the uber-wealthy and the poor, about the rate of unemployment, about racism and injustice, about the availability of health care for all Americans. None of this matters to them.

To enlist the enthusiastic support of the very groups they plan to victimize, they have to create an enemy for those groups to focus on--since it won't do for them to be seen as the actual enemy--and a cause or two for them to foam at the mouth over.

And so they've mined the latent fear and hostility of those groups and chosen to represent as the main threats to the well-being of our country a loosely-defined set of enemies of America: 1.Terrorists and foreigners, especially Muslims, and definitely immigrants. 2. Communists. Especially the ones in Cuba.  3. Secular humanists and all those who don't love Jesus, including a. liberals...that is, those in politics who think it is the government's responsibility to give voice and justice to the downtrodden and to keep wealth from overreaching; b. Women who want to have a say in their own reproductive and contraceptive decisions; c. those of alternative sexual orientation or gender configuration; d. non-Christians and non-fundamentalist Christians 4. Feminists; 5. Opponents of war; 6. "Environmental wackos." 7. Anyone who wants accountability and oversight regarding big business. 8. Government itself (the irony there just has to slay you, no?) 8. Opponents of total gun freedom.

And they engineer into being a reactionary "party" to generate a sense of Cause and a sense of Family, and to fan the flames of resentment lower-middle class Americans feel over what big business and government are already doing to them, teaching them that the problem is not wealth, but rather the elitist socialist wastefulness of liberal government. And that "party" becomes the most powerful faction of the Republican party, the faction before whom all more moderate Republicans must kneel.  This is not about vigorous discussion of the stronger ideas and right courses of action. This is about eliminating the idea of Nation that inspired our founders and replacing it with one in which the already-privileged become the only ones who matter.

With such a scattered and scary group of enemies, big business and government can then quietly strengthen their hegemony and decrease the average citizen's ability to do anything about it, or even find anything about it, its ultimate aim being that of silencing any other voice and serving no interests but its own.

It's a stroke of perverse genius that the Kochs and the Waltons and their ilk have managed to engineer rabid support from the very groups they intend to screw!

And yet nobody's scared about this. Nobody's out of their fucking mind with panic about this. Nah. It's the deficit. The Islamic wackos. The faggots. The immigrants. The terrorists.

What some of us feel is that there's a story to be read out there. There's a narrative. And it's not getting read, because there's active interest in it NOT being read.

I've tried to set down a raw version of it.


THIS is what bothers me about the state of our nation. Not whether or not Jeb Bush or Governor Goodhair runs for President.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Labour Market stats for August

Payrolls grew by just 96 K, but previous data were revised down, a sign of economic weakness.  Overtime hours in manufacturing (very sensitive to economic conditions) fell.  Oddly, the unemployment rate fell, but that came from a different survey (of households not firms) and has a much bigger standard error (is more "noisy") than the establishment ("payrolls") survey, and in any case can fall if people give up looking for work and exclude themselves from the labour force (which they did in August).

For now, I'll just show the unemployment rate chart, because it encapsulates the problem.




Note how in previous recoveries the unemployment rate has fallen sharply.  This has been the great strength of the American system: unemployment might soar during recession, but it also falls just as fast in recovery.  This time, its not happening.  Coupla points:

  • A sluggish recovery is entirely to be expected when an economy has to rebuild its balance sheets because of too much debt.
  • These numbers mean that Obama might well lose the election (forget all the hoopla, in years of strong economic growth, hoi polloi re-elect the incumbent or his party; in bad years they don't)
  • If the Romney gets in, the Tea-Party ideology which dominates the Repubs will cause the "fiscal cliff" I've muttered on about before.  GDP will fall at least 3%.  At least.
  • Which will push the unemployment rate way above its previous highs.  In fact, to post-war highs, to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the 30s. 
  • Very NOT good for shares. 

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Time to spend big


US 10 year Treasury bond yields are at decadal lows.  Forget that, they are at century lows.  Hard-headed investors are saying that they will lend money to the US government for just 1.4% per annum interest.  For CPI linked bonds, the interest rate is negative, in other words, investors are willing to pay the Federal Government to lend it money.  Bit like working as a waiter at a grand resto: you pay for the privilege (because it's assumed you'll make more than that in tips).

As Paul Krugman says, now would be a splendid time for the US government to build needed infrastructure: roads, schools, high-speed trains, airports, green power stations, ports, etc, etc.  This would add dramatically to demand in the economy but would also increase supply.  Eisenhower's interstate highway construction program is estimated to have added 1.2% per annum to the growth rate ( a huge increase when growth is around 3 or 4%) because of its impact on the overall capital stock.

Instead, the tea-party numpties are planning to cut spending drastically in the new year, the so-called "fiscal cliff", which will contract demand sharply precisely at the time when it's not a good idea.

We need a new FDR.   The collapse in bond yields is a splendid opportunity to transform America.  But it won't happen, because conservatives have gone from being pragmatic to true believers, and the US (and the world) is worse off because of it.

Click on chart to enlarge