Electrifying: EV sales in Australia

From The Driven

Australia’s latest VFACTS and EVC data confirms what we’ve been charting all year: EV sales are multiplying, ICE is slowly losing control of the market, and the power EV dealers are supplying is genuinely electrifying.

China now dominates as the source of those vehicles, while grease and petrol and diesel look so “last century” with every monthly update.

As Tim Minchin might put it, the sun is finally coming out on Australia’s electric age – and this time it’s science, not faith, doing the work.

The May 2026 figures show another big jump for battery electrics.

Tesla’s Model Y has topped the national sales charts, while BYD remains the leading EV brand on year-to-date volumes, and Zeekr has emerged as the fastest-growing new player.

EV sales overall are up more than 110 per cent year-on-year, a doubling that reflects both rising demand and a rapidly widening model mix. Every month, more Australians discover that the supposed compromises of EVs were mostly theatre; the weekend, it turns out, was never really at risk.

Country-of-origin data reinforces the point.

China is now firmly the number-one source of new vehicles in Australia, well ahead of Japan and pulling further away.

A growing share of EVs on Australian roads – and a fair number of hybrids and even some ICE models – are built in Chinese factories, whether they carry BYD, Zeekr, MG, GWM, Volvo or Tesla badges.

For a country that doesn’t build cars, we are being swept along an S-curve largely designed in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Since the post‑COVID bounce in 2021, petrol and diesel volumes have been sliding on a clear downward trend, punctuated by the familiar EOFY “dead cat” jumps seeking moonlight.

Even those June bounces in 2023 and 2025 only delivered lower plateaus afterwards, as buyers shifted into hybrids, plug‑ins and BEVs. BEV sales are now close to overtaking the combined hybrid sales including PHEVs, as they first tried to do in 2022.

The old oil era is fading into the twilight, even as the solar‑powered sun finally rises over the showroom, tomorrow.

The long-run picture is no summer fling; combustion is in a decidedly not slow fade-out to the horizon.

By contrast, the electrified side of the ledger is all upward motion. Hybrids first inched into the mainstream, then PHEVs began to appear in meaningful numbers, and BEVs have recently shot to one in five sales in market share.

In the last few months, the BEV line on our charts has started to look like those classic S-curve graphs from EV-heavy Europe and China – and Singapore and Indonesia. This is what the steep part of the transition feels like: one record month after another, as more households and fleets decide they’ve had enough of fuel-price roulette.

Policy and geopolitics are both amplifying the trend.

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard is only in its early stages, but it is already nudging manufacturers to push low- and zero-emission models harder and to clear older, higher-emission stock.

At the same time, the world’s fourth oil crisis has reminded Australians how fragile the “cheap fuel forever” story really is. Each time global tensions flare and servo price boards jump, a few more drivers decide they’re ready to unplug from oil altogether.

That’s why this moment matters.

For decades, petrol and diesel were the unquestioned kings of Australia’s car market. Now, almost quietly, they are becoming the legacy option. ICE-only is still more than half of new sales, but that share is shrinking, and the trend has momentum.

The old soundtrack of the market is fading under the hum and whirr of motors powered from the grid and, increasingly, from rooftop solar.

So yes, Grease is so last century – at least for Australia’s car fleet.

EVs are no longer a sideshow; they’re the main act, stepping into the spotlight as the headliners from the age of oil shuffle offstage.

For all the noise and scare campaigns, the data say, the future turns up slowly, then all at once, like the sun coming out after a long, cloudy morning.

And from what the latest VFACTS data shows, this is one number that’s only going to keep building, key change after key change, as electrified vehicles take over the chorus line.

The chart below shows monthly EV sales, unadjusted for seasonality (blue line), adjusted for seasonality (red line) and smoothed (my seasonal adjustment and smoothing).  Note logarithmic scale. 

 Sales have doubled over the last year; given that EVs now have the same sticker price as petrol/diesel cars, and are much cheaper to run, rapid growth is likely to continue.  As The Driven's article points out--we are in the steeply rising part of the S-curve.  See the lower chart, which is plotted on a linear scale.

Extended-range EVs vs plug-in hybrids

In this piece, I mentioned that T&E research shows that plug-in hybrids produce almost as much CO2 emissions as petrol/diesel cars.

The Driven has also covered this report, but it added some detail about EREVs (extended-range electric vehicles) 

Extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), like PHEVs, also rely on a combustion engine for their extended range, though they use a series configuration, which means that the combustion engine only ever recharges the battery and never provides power to the wheels directly.

According to T&E, EREVs usually have larger batteries than PHEVs and can therefore provide a longer electric-only range. This means that the combustion engine used for generating electricity is smaller than that found in a PHEV, since it does not need to provide power to the wheels.

However, even though EREVs can drive up to 900 kilometres, they are nevertheless still consuming 6.7 [6.4] litres of fuel per 100 kilometres when in combustion mode – similar to some European petrol SUVs.

One would expect a car running on a petrol engine to use almost as much fuel whether it's charging a battery or driving the wheels directly, so the fact that in combustion mode EREVs are still consuming 6.4 litres per 100 kilometres (45 mpg in the UK) isn't surprising, nor is it an argument against EREVs.  The critical number is how often the petrol engine has to run, in proportion to all the kilometres driven.  An ICEV would use petrol for every kilometre, plug-in hybrids, it turns out, use petrol most of the time, but EREVs only use petrol 30% of the time.

The chart below shows T&E's analysis.

With battery costs plunging, EREVs will be a short-term (5 year?) solution to low EV range and too few chargers.   If you live outside a major city in a big country (USA, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, India, South Africa, for example), EV range, except on the most expensive cars, just isn't enough for longer journeys.  In Europe, with its huge network of chargers, EREVs are prolly a distraction, as T&E maintain.  Elsewhere, while PHEVs are not a solution, EREVs are. 

Ozzie EV sales pick up

 Australia's EV sales have stagnated for two years, despite increased incentives from the government, but over the last few months, sales have started to rise again.  Tesla sales have increased, especially in May, with the "refreshed" version of the Model Y now available in Australia.  BYD Dolphin sales have jumped, and seem to have cannibalised sales of other BYD models, but also to have taken sales away from other EV marques.  The cheapest "entry-level" BYD Dolphin costs about the same as the cheapest non-hybrid Corolla.  Tesla has been the top-selling EV brand in Australia, but I think by the end of the year BYD will be just behind

The data come from The Driven, and as far as I can determine, do not include plug-in hybrids, which have been doing well, as the charger network in Australia still leaves much to be desired.  (To be fair, the fast charger network has doubled over the last year.)  However, the incentives to buy PHEVs will end on 30th June, so we should see some demand switch back to full EVs.

Tesla Robotaxis. I was wrong.

I've been doubtful that Tesla (or anybody) would ever make an AI which would be able to safely drive a car. Well, I'm eating my words.

From The Driven.

After more than a decade of development on its revolutionary vision based autonomous driving software, Tesla will finally reveal its much anticipated Robotaxi on August 8, 2024.
The Robotaxi unveil will mark the convergence of Tesla’s latest Full Self Driving software and revolutionary 3rd generation vehicle manufacturing and usher in a new era of “Transport as a Service” (TAAS) with massive ramifications for the 70 million unit per annum global fossil car industry.

The announcement comes as the online Tesla community is abuzz with Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta software testers raving about the latest FSD version 12.3.3 update, with drivers reporting zero interventions during long drives in complex city traffic.

Former Tesla employee and YouTuber Farzad Mesbahi discussed the latest software update with James Douma, who’s one of tens of thousands of Tesla drivers in the US who’ve been testing the Beta software over the past two years.

“It’s a pretty remarkable departure in behaviour from V11,” said Douma. “It just works, you just don’t have interventions anymore.”

Douma, who’s been testing the latest update for the last two weeks, says he’s completed hours of city driving without manually overriding the software.

“The first thing I did was spend 3 hours driving all over the part of LA I live in, just random pin drops.” said Douma.

“And I didn’t have any interventions, it was rock solid.”

Another FSD tester and online Tesla blogger Omar Qazi, AKA @WholeMarsBlog, has also been testing FSD beta and has posted some stunning videos of version 12.3.3 in action around San Francisco. 

 

Unlike other companies who’ve attempted to use LiDAR to solve autonomous driving, Tesla’s strategy from the beginning was to use a vision-based system of camera’s and artificial intelligence.

The theory being that humans naturally use vision to drive and navigate the world so why shouldn’t machines? Our road networks are all designed for vision with lines and signs which can be easy read by cameras and AI.

The software is so advanced that it can differentiate between sedans, utes, trucks and buses as well as motorbikes, scooters and bicycles. It can accurately identify pedestrians, traffic cones, wheelie bins and even dogs and place them in 3D space with astonishing precision.

Unlike the purely object based LiDAR system, the cameras can also identify and read traffic signage such as stop signs, traffic lights, speed limits, road works and even the arrows and symbols painted onto road surfaces. For an in-depth look of Tesla’s FSD software development see The Rise of the Machines: Tesla drives 50km autonomously through heavy LA traffic.

Unlike other companies who’ve attempted to use LiDAR to solve autonomous driving, Tesla’s strategy from the beginning was to use a vision-based system of camera’s and artificial intelligence.

The theory being that humans naturally use vision to drive and navigate the world so why shouldn’t machines? Our road networks are all designed for vision with lines and signs which can be easy read by cameras and AI.

The software is so advanced that it can differentiate between sedans, utes, trucks and buses as well as motorbikes, scooters and bicycles. It can accurately identify pedestrians, traffic cones, wheelie bins and even dogs and place them in 3D space with astonishing precision.

Unlike the purely object based LiDAR system, the cameras can also identify and read traffic signage such as stop signs, traffic lights, speed limits, road works and even the arrows and symbols painted onto road surfaces. For an in-depth look of Tesla’s FSD software development see The Rise of the Machines: Tesla drives 50km autonomously through heavy LA traffic.

If Tesla delivers on its August 8th commitment to showcase the self-driving Tesla Robotaxi, it will mark yet another correct prediction made by technology futurist Tony Seba.

Seba, who was interviewed on The Driven podcast last year, predicted in his 2014 book Clean Disruption that lithium-ion batteries would reach $50/kWh by 2027.

That was a forecast that many people said was crazy. However, it now seems Seba’s prediction was too conservative as Chinese battery maker (and Tesla supplier) CATL is likely to reach the milestone by mid-2024.

Despite being considered one of the boldest technology forecasters in the world, Seba has also underestimated the speed of development of battery longevity. In 2017 he predicted the first million-mile battery by 2030 however last week CATL announced a new EV battery with a 1.5 million km warranty, effectively beating Seba’s prediction by 5 years.

On autonomous vehicles Seba had some fascinating insights which he shared during his interview with The Driven.

“The day that we get level four, autonomous technology ready and approved by regulators, when that converges with on-demand, and electric transportation we will get what we call transportation as a service [TAAS].” Seba told The Driven.

“Some call it Robotaxi. Essentially, when that happens the cost per mile of transportation is going to drop by anywhere from 10 to 20 times.”

“So for most people who can barely pay their bills, it won’t make any sense to own a car,” said Seba.

“Do I spend $50,000 over the next five years to own a car? Or do I pay $100 a month for a subscription to transportation as a service?”

Seba says ICE vehicles get around 140,000 miles (225,000 km) over their lifetime. An EV with a 1.5 million km battery will get almost 7 times that amount. This means that EVs will last at least 6-7 times longer than ICE vehicles meaning the global car market will likely drop by over 75% because people won’t need to replace cars as often.

“People are going to be buying vehicles a lot less often. So with that, essentially cut the global vehicle market by a factor of four or five.”

TAAS combined with the million-mile battery will mean new vehicle sales will drop even further as people opt for super cheap electric robotaxi transport instead of spending tens of thousands on private vehicles.

“Either way, it’s pretty much over for internal combustion engine.” says Seba.

I doubt that robotaxis will be the money-spinner Musk says.  If they become that profitable, everyone will buy a Model 3 to make money, and the charges they will be able to levy will go down.  (BTW, I don't think Tesla will be allowed to run a robotaxi monopoly --- but that doesn't mean they won't be able to charge a lot for FSD)  But that only implies that TaaS will take off.  Seba is right.  Why pay a fortune for a car which sits in your driveway or at in a car park for most of its life?  Taxis are expensive because they have to have a human driver and because they're ICEVs.  Robotaxis will be cheap.

Anyway, now I'm convinced.   I was wrong.

Legacy auto makers face disaster

From The Driven

We are currently witnessing a major disruption in the world’s largest car market, that will have massive implications for the biggest carmakers as they seek to manage the switch from fossil fuel vehicles to electric.

Potentially millions of petrol and diesel cars may about to become unsellable in China as the country implements new vehicle emissions standards, and as EV demand booms. With China already experiencing a car inventory crisis, the next three months could spell disaster for some legacy auto companies.

Auto News recently reported that the China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce (CADCC) posted an article on March 23 on WeChat saying that dealers could be left with hundreds of thousands of non-compliant unsellable petrol and diesel vehicles once China’s new emission standard is implemented in July.

According to its website, the CADCC had over 8000 auto dealer members as of 2019.

More details on the CADCC March 23 article – now deleted – were given on the Shanghai Metals Market SSM news site on Monday in post titled Industry Association Appeals for Delayed Enforcement of Imminent China VI B Emission Standards to Tackle Huge Inventory Pressure.

The Chinese metals industry publication is justifiably concerned as the inventory crisis will have massive flow on effects for auto industry metals suppliers.

The SSM article says the deleted document stated that the CADCC had “received reports from many auto dealer groups that the upcoming full implementation of the China VI B emission standards will bring enormous pressure to the survival of auto dealers.”SSM reports that in the document the CADCC appealed for three measures on behalf of the majority of auto dealers.

1. Postpone the implementation of the China VI B emission standards to January 1, 2024;
2. Car makers should stop producing new cars that do not meet the China VI B emission standards;
3. Auto OEMs should allocate existing new cars that do not meet the China VI B emission standards to dealers as soon as possible, and launch sales promotions.

China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line.

The “China 6 standard” is being implemented in two phases. The first phase, 6a took effect on July 1 2020 and the 6b standard will be implemented on July 1 2023.

The China 6 standard applies to light-duty vehicles up to 3,500 kg powered primarily by gasoline or diesel.

The International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT) says the China 6 standard combines best practices from both European and U.S. regulatory requirements in addition to creating its own.

The ICCT says “China 6b further lowers the limits by about one third to half of the magnitude for NOX [nitrogen oxide] , THC [Total hydrocarbons], NMHC [non-methane hydrocarbons] , PM [particulate matter], and CH4 [methane], on top of the China 6a standard.”

While the inventory crises is hitting Chinese dealerships hard, the biggest impacts will be felt by legacy auto companies who have failed to shift to electric vehicles.

The glut of hundreds of thousands of high polluting vehicles sitting in Chinese dealerships comes as Chinese consumers shift rapidly to EVs. Over 25% of all new cars sold in China in 2022 were electric.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), 27 million vehicles were sold in China in 2022, with almost 7 million being EVs. China accounted for around two-thirds of global sales of EVs last year.

Although the inventory crisis is playing out in China, counterintuitively Chinese car manufacturers may actually benefit while foreign legacy auto companies sales plummet in the world’s largest car market.

This is because electric vehicles make up a much higher proportion of the total production of Chinese automakers like BYD, while foreign companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are manufacturing and selling mostly petrol and diesel cars in China.

So it will be predominantly Japanese, German and US carmakers that are hit the hardest by the inventory crisis while Chinese EV companies as well as Tesla will continue to see demand grow.

This trend is already playing out in 2023.

In the first two months of the year, sales of Japanese brands in China have dropped by 40% year-on-year. German and Korean brands have dropped by around 20% while US brands have dropped 12.5%.

Meanwhile, Chinese brands have held steady with losses of ICE sales being offset with increased EV sales domestically.

And this trend is accelerating rapidly. EV output in China totalled 7 million units in 2022, an increase of 97% on 2021, while sales of electric vehicles rose by 93%.

The imminent implementation of new pollution standard will compound this trend even further.

Meanwhile, the two largest automakers in the world Volkswagen and Toyota aren’t even planning on launching mass produced EV models until 2027, which is still 4 years away.

The German and Japanese car giants are also two of the most indebted companies in the world, both with almost $US200 billion of debt and highly questionable valuations on their internal combustion factory assets.

An inventory glut of unsellable vehicles in the world’s largest car market is the last thing these companies need and with ICE vehicles sales plummeting, it’s difficult to see how they will survive.

In Japan, automotive manufacturers and the industries that support them are estimated to employ over 5 million workers. Around 8% of Japan’s workforce.

Because of Japan’s disastrous national hydrogen strategy (largely promoted by Toyota), the nation produces a trivial number of electric vehicles and as a result its addressable market in China is vanishing before its eyes.

With Chinese automakers largely shielded from the impacts of the new pollution standards because of their early move to EVs, it’s unlikely that the Chinese government will delay its implementation.

Its looking like the next few months will be crunch time for the legacy automotive industry.

The surplus stocks in China are likely to encourage steep price discounting and also greater exports.  The plunge in the lithium price is making EVs cheaper.    Tesla, with the highest margins in the EV business (in fact in the car business) wants to expand its market share, and can afford to cut prices.  BYD, the world's largest EV maker will defend its share and will take the fight into Tesla's court by increasing exports.  Expect the price of EVs to reach parity with the price of ICEVs far, far sooner than the consensus has it as China's auto price war explodes into world markets.   And expect legacy manufacturers to struggle and (prolly) fail.  

Source: The Driven