Tuesday, September 29, 2026

New interest rate upcycle

By tradition, the rate at which central banks (the Fed, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia etc.) lend to banks is called the discount rate.  Each country has their own nomenclature, so it is a convenient general term.

The chart below shows the GDP-weighted average of world discount rates, covering 83% of the world economy, and the median discount rate for those same economies.  The point where half the countries have a discount rate above and half below is the median.  It's useful because it isn't dominated by the large economies, but it also isn't distorted by countries with high inflation, which tend to have higher interest rates.

Like long-dated bonds, short-term rates have started to rise.  And that rise is likely to continue until oil prices start to fall.  And that will only happen if the Iran war ends, and then not quickly because of the damage to infrastructure, or when demand destruction reduces the market price.   Demand destruction refers to the physical reduction of demand caused by a decline in economic activity, or conversely, a decline in activity due to the shortage of oil and gas, for example because of rationing or economic collapse.  In this oil crisis, demand destruction is happening because of a brand-new factor:  the roll-out of renewables and EVs, which will reduce the economic slow-down needed to bring supply and demand into balance.  But it's still going to be nasty, and things will get worse before they get better.



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