Showing posts with label HEVs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HEVs. Show all posts

Sunday, August 3, 2025

China's neighbours quickly adopt EVs

 From Wolfgang Blau

Staggering figures. Source: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b... “Nepal, The Country Where 76% of Cars Sold Are Electric”



 Some of this is due to supportive policies.  Pakistan, on the other hand, has only just started with its support for EVs.  Note how much Pakistan plans to save on oil imports.  Note also, that the biggest subsidy is for 3-wheelers.

Meanwhile, the USA, under the Republicans, is doing its best to destroy America's EV industry.  The US car industry will never catch up.

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

How clean are electric cars?

There's been a fair bit of mindless chatter recently that EVs don't actually reduce CO2 emissions.  Prolly started and funded by legacy petrol-car manufacturers who are losing market share.  It's piffle.

 From Transport and Environment 


How much CO2 can electric cars really save compared to diesel and petrol cars? To answer this question we have developed a tool that compiles all the most up-to-date data on CO2 emissions linked to the use of an electric, diesel or petrol car.

We have taken into account all possible criteria, such as the amount of CO2 emitted when electricity is produced or fuel is burnt, as well as the carbon impact of resource extraction for batteries or of building a power plant.

We find out that electric cars in Europe emit, on average, more than 3 times less CO2 than equivalent petrol cars.

In the worst case scenario, an electric car with a battery produced in China and driven in Poland still emits 37% less CO2 than petrol. And in the best case scenario, an electric car with a battery produced in Sweden and driven in Sweden can emit 83% less than petrol.

We also see that electric cars bought in 2030 will reduce CO2 emissions four-fold thanks to an EU grid relying more and more on renewables.

Despite their green credentials, HEVs’ and PHEVs’ lifecycle emissions are much closer to polluting conventional petrol cars than to BEVs. The results show that HEVs only achieve a 21% reduction in LCA emissions compared to an equivalent petrol car while PHEV improvements are limited to 26%.




Source: The T & E app; petrol car vs EV, with standard EU27 battery production, and driving in the EU27.   








Wednesday, February 23, 2022

UK: Cars with electric motor over 50%

 [In other words, any car with an electric motor: hybrids, plug-in hybrids and full EVs]


From CleanTechnica


The UK saw plugin electric vehicle share hit 20.4% in January 2022, up from 13.7% in January 2021. Full battery electrics almost doubled their share year-on-year, to 12.5%. Diesels continued their retirement walk, with just 5.2% share, from 12.3% year-on-year. Overall auto volumes recovered slightly from last year, but were still down by around a quarter from long term seasonal norms, at 115,087 units.

January’s combined plugin result of 20.4% comprised 12.5% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 7.9% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This 61:39 weighting represents a slight, temporary, dent to BEVs compared to recent weightings, mostly due to Tesla’s BEVs not delivering in significant volume at the start of the quarter.

A year ago, the two categories were evenly weighted. Since then BEVs’ share has nearly doubled from 6.9% in January 2021, to 12.5% last month. PHEVs meanwhile only grew from 6.8% to 7.9% share over the same period. BEVs are thus the outstanding growth story in the UK auto market.

Smoothing out the monthly variance, the trailing quarter’s plugin share stands at 27.1% (up from 18.3% YoY). BEVs alone constitute over two-thirds of that, at 18.2% (from 11.4% YoY).  [At this growth rate, EVs/PHEVs will reach a 40% market share by the end of this year]



Source: CleanTechnica
Cars with an electric motor (HEVs, PHEVs and EVs) now exceed 50% of the market


Sunday, February 6, 2022

Sweden reaches 52% plug-in share

 From CleanTechnica


Sweden started 2022 with an impressive plugin electric vehicle [PHEV + EV] share of 52.3%, up from 33.5% in January 2021.  This is the first time Sweden has started a year with plugins preferred over non-plugins, and their share will only climb throughout 2022. Sweden has thus already “made the switch” to mostly plugin sales. The overall auto market saw volume in line with seasonal norms at 19,890 units. The Kia Niro was January’s best selling full electric.

January’s combined plugin result of 52.9% comprised 25.9% full electrics (BEVs) and 27.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), continuing the fairly even weighting we have seen since policy changes in Spring 2021 (before that, PHEVs were heavily dominant).

The trailing quarter share for plugins now stands at 56.4%, from 41.9% year-on-year, a substantial step up. BEVs alone are now at 30.2% over the trailing quarter.

With plugins now clearly favoured over plugless vehicles in Sweden, we can expect their share to steadily climb in the months ahead, reaching above 60% in September and into the 70% range in December. We should see BEVs alone get very close to 50% in December.

Source: CleanTechnica
Including simple hybrids, the electric share is 61.4%




Saturday, January 29, 2022

France's plug-in share breaks records

 From CleanTechnica


France, Europe’s second largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle share of 24.4% in December, a new record high, with pure electrics taking 14.6%. Diesel meanwhile dropped to a new record low of 17.4%. The overall auto market, at just under 160,000 units, was down some 15% from pre-pandemic seasonal averages.

December’s record 24.4% result for combined plugins comprised 14.6% full electrics (BEVs) and 9.8% for plugin hybrids (PHEVs), continuing a shift towards BEVs over recent months, while PHEVs’ share has almost plateaued over the past 6 months.

The 2021 Q4 share for combined plugins was 23.7%, up from 15.4% in Q4 2020. BEVs have grown share more steeply, from 8.4% in Q4 2020 to 13.8% in Q4 2021.

Diesels meanwhile hit a record low share of 17.4% in December, and 18.3% in Q4 overall, down from 26.5% and 29.4%, respectively, in 2020.

In terms of absolute sales volumes, BEVs’ Q4 performance has also remained relatively strong, increasing 37% year-on-year (to 55,175 units), in the context of overall auto market volume falling 17.5% year-on-year. For example, diesels’ Q4 2021 volume (73,029 units) was just 51% of what it was in Q4 2020 (see the foot of the article for a sales-by-powertrain graphic).




Sunday, July 25, 2021

China: record plug-in sales in June

 From InsideEVs:





About 235,000 plug-ins were sold, which translated to 15% market share.

Plug-in electric car sales surge in China to new record levels as multiple models are selling better than ever.

In June, some 235,000 passenger plug-in cars were registered (new all-time record), which is probably close to 160% more than a year ago. Moreover, the market share increased to 15% and 12% are BEVs. Plug-in hybrids are not that popular in China.

So far this year, about 1.1 million passenger plug-in cars were sold, which is 11% of the total market. BEV share stands at 9%.

It's obvious that this year sales will exceed 2 million - possibly even 2.5 million.


OK, all those forecasters who think it'll take until 2040 for EV sales to make up 100% of car sales: China makes and sells roughly 1/3rd of the world's cars, will likely reach 20% EVs by the end of this year, and is only just beginning to turn its attention to EV exports.  Seriously?  At the growth rates of the last 5 years, China & Europe will achieve 100% by 2025.  Peak oil has come.

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

UK plug-in car sales surge. Again.

 From InsideEVs



Plug-in sale more than doubled and the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling car of any kind 

New passenger car registrations in the UK amounted to 186,128, although the growth rate of  28% year-over-year is considered "artificially lifted" as the 2020 year was affected by lockdowns.

The plug-in electric market on the other hand continues to expand at a rapid rate. In June, the number of registrations increased 131% year-over-year to almost 32,000. That's 17.2% of the market!

It's one of the best months ever and let's take a note that all-electric cars took more than a tenth of the market.

 

Plug-in electric car registrations in the UK – June 2021

  • BEVs: 19,842 (up 123% year-over-year) at market share of 10.7%
  • PHEVs: 12,139 (up 146% year-over-year) at market share of 6.5%
  • Total: 31,981 (up 131% year-over-year) at market share of 17.2%

So far this year, more than 132,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in the UK at an average market share of 14.5%.

Sales YTD:

  • BEVs: 73,893 (up 139% year-over-year) - market share of 8.1%
  • PHEVs: 52,207 (up 197% year-over-year)- market share of 6.4%
  • Total: 132,100 (up 161% year-over-year) - market share of 14.5%





Sunday, February 7, 2021

Nearly 90% of Norway's car sales electric

 (Where 'electric' means a car with an electric motor, i.e., full EVs, plug-in hybrids, and ordinary hybrids)


From Eyvind Aven


Norway car sales Jan 2021: BEVs cont. above 50%, but record month for PHEVs at 27.6%. Most popular car Toyota RAV4 of which 64% was PHEVs #ElectricVehicles: 81%! 

Note the steady downtrend in diesel, and since 2013, a similar trend in petrol.  By the end of 2021, electric sales could be approaching 99% of the market.



Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Electrics 22% of German car market in July

[By 'electrics' I mean cars with an electric engine, even if they also have a petrol/diesel engine, in other words, EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids]



 From CleanTechnica


The German auto market is nearly back to normal, down just 5% in July, but the local plugin electric vehicle market is far beyond that — it’s red hot right now. Plugin vehicles (fully electric vehicles as well as plugin hybrids) scored an amazing 36,000 registrations in July, which not only a new record, but is 85% above the last record, made last March.

And if while fully electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 182% year over year (YoY) last month, to almost 17,000 units, PHEV registrations went though the roof, up 485%(!), to some 19,000 units. That means that plugins as a whole jumped an amazing 302%(!) last month, with the plugin vehicle share reaching an amazing 11% (5.3% BEV). The 2020 tally was thus pulled to 8.5% (4% BEV).

The German plugin market started the second half of the year on fire thanks in part to strong new electric vehicle incentives, with a record month in the usually slow July. Without a doubt, more record months to come (ahem, September), and we may have already reached the “tipping point” in Germany, at which disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever. We could see this market reach 10% plugin share already this year, which would mean 2021 would see this market surf the steepest part of the S-curve during that whole year.

After years of asking “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”, we can finally say that, yes, we have arrived, so let’s sit back and enjoy the disruption show unfold before our eyes.

Of course the 300% growth rate year over year for plug-ins will slide, unless incentives are increased.  Let's assume that the growth rate slows to 25%.  Global EV sales have been growing at 50% per annum, so this is conservative.  At this growth rate, plug-ins will have 90% of the new car market by 2030.  Petrol/diesel demand will be falling by 7.5% per annum, assuming an average car life of 12 years.  But that's a conservative growth rate.  As battery costs decline (and they are falling by 20% per annum), EV costs will be falling by 6% a year.   EVs could move to 100% of the market much more quickly. 

Thursday, August 6, 2020

22% of UK cars sold fully or partially electric

From InsideEVs


More than 15,600 new plug-ins sold in a single month is the second-best result ever. 
After several weak months, passenger car sales in the UK, finally returned to growth in July (174,887 and up 11.3% year-over-year), while the plug-in segment nearly quadrupled!

In total, 15,609 plug-in cars were registered last month, which is 286.8% more than a year ago. Thanks to an outstanding rate of expansion, the market share was close to 9%.

The plug-in hybrids are expanding quicker than all-electric, but BEVs are still slightly more popular.

Plug-in Electric Car Registrations in the UK – July 2020 
BEVs: 8,162 (up 259% year-over-year) at market share of 4.7%
PHEVs: 7,447 (up 320% year-over-year) at market share of 4.3%
Total: 15,609 (up 287% year-over-year) at market share of over 8.9%


In fact, in the year to date (YTD) period, i.e. January to July, cars with an electric engine, ranging from fully electric to mild-hybrids, made up 22.6% of all cars sold.  In the equivalent period last year, they made up just 8.8%.  Because battery costs continue to decline, this percentage will just keep on rising.  Moreover, the kind of electric vehicle will shift towards those with lower fuel consumption.  So HEVs (hybrids) will become PHEVs (plug-in hybrids).  Mild hybrids will become full hybrids or PHEVs.  And the percentage of pure electrics will keep on rising. Mild hybrids reduce petrol/diesel usage per km by 10-ish%, full hybrids by 40-50%, PHEVs by 80%, and full EVs by 100%.

Can anybody doubt that as this trend is replicated in Europe, N America, and China, oil demand will fall more and more rapidly?  Have we not seen the beginning of peak oil?







Thursday, July 16, 2020

UK electric car sales reach 24%

Source: CleanTechnica



From CleanTechnica

The UK, Europe’s third largest auto market, saw plug-in electric vehicle market share hit 9.5% in June 2020, up from 2.1% in June 2019. Accumulated EV market share for H1 2020 now stands at 7.7%. The ever popular Tesla Model 3 was the 9th best selling passenger vehicle in June. [Sales of cars with an electric motor—simple hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fully electric vehicles—made up 23.7% of total car sales in June.]

Plug-in EVs as a whole took over 7.7% UK market share in the first half of the year, up from 2.1% in the same period last year. 
In Germany, cars with an electric engine made up 17.4% of total car sales, and in France they made up 17.9%.

Market share growth has been explosive over the last year, and is unlikely to continue at that pace.  All the same, even at 20% market share—and it is likely to increase steadily from here—demand for petrol and diesel in Europe will be falling sharply.   China—with nearly 30% of the world's car market—is also pushing EVs/PHEVs/HEVs; and electric-engined market share is rising in the USA too.

We have reached peak oil.

Monday, June 22, 2020

Achieving a 50% cut in emissions

Toyota RAV4 plug-in hybrid, with 60 k's of electric range


This is from a comment I wrote about a piece in Melbourne's The Age newspaper.  It's specifically about Australia, but the same forces are operating everywhere.  A 50% cut in emissions by 2035 is easy.  The next 50% (to be achieved by 2050) might be a little harder.

In 2009, new-build solar cost 3.1 times as much as new-build coal (US data, Lazard). Now it costs 1/3rd. The ratio has completely inverted. In fact, in several countries, new-build wind and/or solar are cheaper than the *operating* cost of coal power stations. In other words. it costs more to dig up, transport and burn the coal than it does to build a new wind/solar farm from scratch. The implication is that for *economic* reasons, coal power stations are going to be closed down over the next decade. The government could, were it not a wholly-owned subsidiary of coal companies, make a virtue of the inevitability of this. "See, we're cutting emissions by a third! Aren't we green! We really care!"  Not that they do, of course.

What about the variability of wind/solar? Three points:


  1. Wind and solar are complementary, in fact negatively correlated. The wind often blows when the sun doesn't shine, for example during winter in southern states. So a 50/50 wind+solar powered grid has an output profile much closer to baseload than either by itself.
  2. A continent-wide grid produce much less variable output than a local one. When the wind isn't blowing in western Victoria, it is in east Gippsland. When it's raining in Sydney, it's sunny in Broken Hill or Port Augusta.
  3. Battery cost are plunging. Over the last 30 months, they've fallen 60%, even after the cost impact of the fall in the A$. Storage costs are falling fast, which means the costs of "firming" the grid are too. It is now normal in the US for new solar farms to come with 4 hours of storage. As battery costs continue to slide--they should halve again over the next 3 years--solar farms will add even more storage to allow them to provide power overnight (o/n demand is 2/3rds of day demand, so in principle, 8 hours of storage will be enough)


One final point. Already simple hybrids cost only $1500-$2000 more than their (automatic/CVT) petrol equivalents (for example, the 2020 Toyota Corolla sedan), but they use 40-50% less petrol in urban driving. If your fuel bill is $100 per month, the higher cost of the hybrid engine will pay for itself within 3 years. And transitioning our vehicle fleet to simple hybrids will cut total emissions by another 10% (transport emissions are ~20% of the total.)  Plug-in hybrids are even more fuel efficient, cutting tailpipe emissions by 80% plus.  They cost just a couple of thousand dollars more than an ordinary hybrid.  A small tweak to the tax system could cut emissions from transport by 75%.

By 2030 or 2035, we could cut emissions by 50%, at no extra cost to ourselves. And look good while doing it.  But our conservative government is so beholden to fossil fuel interests that it cannot bring itself to acknowledge this.

Friday, May 22, 2020

Emissions plunge. For now.

From a Twitter thread by Bloomberg Green:



The sectoral breakdown is interesting:



The interesting point from the second chart is how much transport emissions have fallen.  Over the next decade, emissions from power production will decline sharply, simply on cost grounds.  And if we could transition land transport to cars with electric motors, we could substantially decrease global emissions.  As I've said before, they don't even have to be full EVs: hybrids will cut emissions by 40-50% and plug-in hybrids by 80%. 

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Pollution makes Covid much worse

Dense smog in Milan.
The heavily polluted northern Italian city and the surrounding region have been hard hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
Photograph: Flavio Lo Scalzo/Reuters



There are three new reports linking air pollution with higher death rates from the coronavirus.

The first, from Climate News Network:

In research which could, if confirmed by further studies, have fundamental implications not only for health but also for the climate crisis, scientists at the University of Cambridge say they have found an association between living in parts of England with high levels of air pollution and Covid-19 severity.

Because of the urgent need to share information relating to the pandemic, the researchers say, they have decided to publish their report on medRxiv, the preprint server for health sciences, even though it has not yet been peer-reviewed. However, they say, this preliminary data is supported by that from other countries.

The initial symptoms of Covid-19 include fever, but do not always include breathing difficulties. But, the researchers point out, some patients do go on to develop very serious respiratory problems. Although most experience only mild illness, around a quarter of patients admitted to hospital need intensive care treatment because of viral pneumonia with respiratory complications.

Research suggests that this probably stems from an overactive immune response, they say − but it is not clear why some patients are at greater risk of severe disease.

Previous studies have suggested that people over the age of 60 or with underlying health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer, are at highest risk of severe disease or death.

Long-term exposure to air pollutants, including nitrogen oxides and ground-level ozone from car exhaust fumes or burning fossil fuels is a known risk factor for these health conditions.

Such pollutants can also cause a persistent inflammatory response and increase the risk of infection by viruses that target the respiratory tract.


[Read more here]

The other two are from The Guardian.

High levels of air pollution may be “one of the most important contributors” to deaths from Covid-19, according to research.

The analysis shows that of the coronavirus deaths across 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, 78% of them occurred in just five regions, and these were the most polluted.

The research examined levels of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant produced mostly by diesel vehicles, and weather conditions that can prevent dirty air from dispersing away from a city. Many studies have linked NO2 exposure to health damage, and particularly lung disease, which could make people more likely to die if they contract Covid-19.

“The results indicate that long-term exposure to this pollutant may be one of the most important contributors to fatality caused by the Covid-19 virus in these regions and maybe across the whole world,” said Yaron Ogen, at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg in Germany, who conducted the research. “Poisoning our environment means poisoning our own body, and when it experiences chronic respiratory stress its ability to defend itself from infections is limited.”

[Read more here]


And, coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution.

Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected.

The work is preliminary and it is not yet known if the virus remains viable on pollution particles and in sufficient quantity to cause disease.

The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory.

Previous studies have shown that air pollution particles do harbour microbes and that pollution is likely to have carried the viruses causing bird flu, measles and foot-and-mouth disease over considerable distances.

The potential role of air pollution particles is linked to the broader question of how the coronavirus is transmitted. Large virus-laden droplets from infected people’s coughs and sneezes fall to the ground within a metre or two. But much smaller droplets, less than 5 microns in diameter, can remain in the air for minutes to hours and travel further.

[Read more here]

What can we do about air pollution?  It's easy to think we have to wait for batteries to fall in cost so that we can use them to "firm" electricity generation and facilitate the switch to EVs.  Actually, batteries are falling in cost very fast.   Yet it is possible to cut emissions from electricity generation by 80%, even without using batteries, though batteries help, by providing overcapacity in renewables in a continent-wide grid with backup from gas-fired peaker plants.  I discuss this fully here.  Renewables are much cheaper than coal, so we'd actually save money. Plus, if we banned all cars without an electric motor, even if they are not full EVs, but hybrids (HEVs) or plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), we could cut emissions from transport by 50% to 80%.   And with steel, we can also reduce emissions by using green hydrogen or green methane instead of coking coal.

If we wanted to, we could cut the worst air pollution (from petrol/diesel engines) by 25% over the next five years, and 50% over the next 10, just by banning the sale of new cars without electric engines.  Car prices would rise by only $1500-$2000.  The average car lasts 10 years,  but the switch could be accelerated by  a "cash for clunkers" program.  Plug in hybrids (PHEVs) cost around $5000 more than petrol cars, but they cut emissions and pollution by 80%.   A tax incentive of $2000 per car will make HEVs as cheap as petrol cars, and PHEVs only $3000 more expensive.  Since petrol consumption will be much reduced, these higher costs will be offset by reduced fuel charges.  Actually, we can cut emissions by even more, because in 10 years' time, batteries will cost 10% of what they do now, and PHEVs and full EVs will be concomitantly cheaper.

The question is, do we really want to cut air pollution?  Or are we going to go on listening to the urgent entreaties of legacy car makers who have dragged their feet in this transition?  Are we going to force a shift in electricity generation away from coal, or are we going to continue to phiff and phaff?  Are we going to introduce a carbon tax to encourage iron and steel and cement producers to reduce emissions?

It's up to us.  There are no technological and only small cost impediments to us doing these things.  Only politics and corruption stop us.


Sunday, April 12, 2020

Pollution falls over NE United States

Thanks to the lockdown, nitrogen dioxide pollution has fallen over the NE USA to the lowest level since 2005.  (Report from Space.com)



Notice how bad the pollution is around New York.  There is a reason why the death toll there has been so appalling: air pollution dramatically increases the death rate from the coronavirus.  As the Australian government says:

The main effect of breathing in raised levels of nitrogen dioxide is the increased likelihood of respiratory problems. Nitrogen dioxide inflames the lining of the lungs, and it can reduce immunity to lung infections. This can cause problems such as wheezing, coughing, colds, flu and bronchitis.
And it can triple or quadruple the death rate from coronavirus.

We could significantly reduce NO2 air pollution (which comes mostly from cars, lorries and buses) just by mandating that all new cars sold must have an electric engine.  They don't have to be full-on EVs.  Even an "old-fashioned" hybrid (HEV) uses 40-50% less petrol (gasoline) than a conventional (ICE) car.  A plug-in hybrid (PHEV) is even more efficient.  It depends on the car and the kind of driving you do, but the Chevrolet Volt can get more than 100 m.p.g. (2.4 litres/100 km), in some cases as high as 150 m.p.g.  The average car in the US achieves 24.9 m.p.g. (9.4 litres/100 km)    This suggests that PHEVs could cut emissions 75%, or more if their batteries allow for a 30 miles plus electric range.

We could ban the sales of ICEVs tomorrow, and sweeten the deal with a $1500 cashback if you buy any car with an electric engine.  And within 5 years we would have cut lethal NO2 by 50%.

See also:

Toyota's biggest selling hybrid isn't the Prius

Saturday, April 4, 2020

75% of Norwegian car sales electric

From InsideEVs.

With Audi e-tron in its best form and supported by Tesla Model 3 volume deliveries, three out of four new cars sold were plug-ins.  March was an exceptional month in Norwegian history as the passenger plug-in electric cars for the very first time reached a market share of 75% (75.2% to be precise)! [That doesn't include conventional hybrids at 6.7%]

The total number of registrations actually decreased by 26.7% year-over-year from the all-time high of 12,764 (when tons of Tesla Model 3 come out a year ago) to 9,358, but it's still the second-best month ever.

The unprecedented surge in market share is mostly the result of a 32.2% drop of overall passenger car registrations, caused mostly by COVID-19, we guess.

Plug-ins were simply significantly less affected as plug-in hybrids actually improved year-over-year:

  • BEVs: 6,966 (down 35.1%, at 55.9% market share) + 267 ‘used’ + 184 vans (180 new and 4 used) + 0 FCVs
  • PHEVs: 2,392 (up 17.5%, at 19.2% market share)

As the plug-ins surge to 75.2% of the market, one might wonder what about conventional internal combustion engine cars? Well:

  • diesel is at 10.4%
  • gasoline is at 7.7%
  • and the total ICE (diesel + gasoline) is at a record low of 18.1% (first time below 20%).
  • The remaining 6.7% are other types, like conventional hybrids.



It's important to note that the incentives to buy EVs, PHEVs, and Hybrids haven't changed, yet the percentage of EVs/PHEVs keeps on rising.  Some of this is due to cheaper batteries which the car makers have used to extend range.  But much of it must be due to a demonstration effect.   A neighbour gets an electric car, a relative gets one, and so it seems much less outlandish to get one yourself.  More EVs means more charge points.  Better sales mean a bigger range of models.  

In 2012, 8 years ago,  plug-ins made up just 3% of Norway's car sales.  Last year, they reached 56%.  In 2020, they have briefly reached 75%.  By 2022, plug-ins will likely make up 90% of car sales in Norway.  The incentives in Norway to buy plug-ins are larger than elsewhere, so the uptake elsewhere may ramp more slowly, though the plunging cost of batteries will now start making plug-ins cheaper, offsetting that.  It seems very likely that by 2030 at the latest, most car sales globally will be plug-ins.  ICE car manufacturers have a brief window to transition--or go bankrupt.

[See also: The EV sales S-curve]

Source: InsideEVs

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

UK plans to ban all petrol vehicle sales by 2035


EVs outside the House of Parliament


From Green Car Reports


UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been compared to U.S. President Donald Trump in some respects. And yet environmental policy is one area in which their positions could not be more different.

Johnson is expected to announce, in November at the start of the United Nations Climate Conference, called COP26, the most sweeping plan to make all new-car sales electric—or hydrogen fuel-cell.  The plan includes a ban of the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035.

The official statement doesn’t mention plug-in hybrids, but Autocar and several other UK automotive publications are reporting that it will also ban those.

It’s radically stepped-up, both in terms of timeline and accepted technology. Under a previous plan, the ban would have been imposed for 2040, and hybrids and plug-in hybrids, if they met a certain efficiency/emissions requirement, would still be allowed beyond that.

Both plans are likely to carry through with a scrappage scheme that would encourage owners to retire older IC vehicles earlier. But the sharp pivot away from favoring hybrids and plug-in hybrids over the long term in the UK is likely to change the strategy for the next decade for some automakers.

According to Autocar, fully electric vehicles made up just 1.6 percent of the new-car market in 2018, gasoline and diesel made up 90 percent of the market. Many of the electric vehicles are within London, where electric cars are favored for congestion-pricing exemptions and hybrids fell out of favor with the city’s carpool lanes in 2016.


[Read more here]

For what it's worth, I think it likely that most car sales will be electric by 2025, and all by 2030, anyway, because of the steady decline in battery-pack prices.

Friday, February 14, 2020

Fossil fuel car sales collapse in Europe

[Excludes pure hybrids]


In France:

France, the world’s 8th largest auto market, just hit 11% electric vehicle market share in January, a year-on-year growth of 4×. Meanwhile, diesel and gasoline vehicle sales crashed by ~25% year on year.

The massive year-on-year market share jump from January 2019’s 2.7% to 11% was boosted by manufacturers releasing EV stock that had deliberately been held back in late 2019. Manufacturers need to push hard for EV sales now that we’re into 2020, in order to meet the new European CO2 emissions targets that start this year.

Whilst the 11% figure thus partly represents a spring-back effect from recent suppression, it’s also likely that France’s full year 2020 EV  market share [excluding pure hybrids] will achieve at least 5% overall (from 2019’s full year figure of 2.8%). Whether 10% or higher can be sustained over the coming months, we will have to wait to see.

[Read more here]


In Germany:


Europe’s largest auto market, Germany, saw January fossil fuel vehicle sales drop by over 15% year-on-year, with gasoline vehicles alone down over 17%. Meanwhile, EVs increased their market share to 6.5% from 2.5%. Europe’s big five markets are now at a combined 6.0% EV market share. What progress will full year 2020 bring overall?

Parsing out the electric vehicle mix, pure battery electrics took 3% market share, with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) taking 3.5%. Regular hybrids and mild-hybrids also saw good growth, to 9% market share, but we do not include them under the “electric vehicle” umbrella. [I.e, the percentage of cars with an electric engine is now 15.5%]

As I’ve recently discussed elsewhere, non-plug-in hybrids can certainly boost the efficiency of old-school combustion engines, which is sorely needed, as Germany’s average CO2/km still came in at 151.5 grams, almost 60% above the European fleet target for 2020. However, non-plug-in hybrids are not able to meet the more ambitious emissions targets that will phase in over the current decade. This will require plug-in vehicles with a range of ~50 km (~30 miles) or more.

[Read more here]

Europe and China have ambitious targets for EVs.  This is surely the beginning of the end for oil.  More than half global oil demand is for transport.  As cars with an electric motor gain market share over the next decade, oil demand is likely to plunge.

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Electric vehicle sales triple in Oz

From The Guardian:

Electric vehicle sales in Australia more than tripled last year but were still far lower than in a majority of developed countries, industry data shows.

The Electric Vehicle Council says 6,718 full electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles were sold in 2019, up from 2,216 the year before. Sales of combustion engine cars fell 7.8% over that period.

The release of the industry group data follows Britain this week announcing it would ban new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars from 2035. The Electric Vehicle Council said the spike in sales in Australia from a low base suggested consumers wanted the technology despite it being yet to receive the support offered elsewhere.

“The good news is that the number of Australians buying EVs is surging despite a lack of government incentives or support,” the council’s chief executive, Beyhad Jafari, said. “The bad news is that even with this strong growth, EVs still only represent 0.6% of sales. That compares poorly with 3.8% of sales in Europe and 4.7% of sales in China.”

Support for EVs was a significant point of difference between the major parties at last year’s federal election. Labor promised a target of 50% new car sales being electric by 2030.

The prime minister, Scott Morrison, accused the opposition of wanting to “end the weekend” by forcing people out of four-wheel drives, while the minister for small business, Michaelia Cash, told tradies only the Coalition would “save their utes”.


[Read more here]

Note that these data do not include simple hybrids (HEVs), which are making up an increasing portion of sales:

Customer deliveries of Toyota’s hybrid electric vehicles in 2019 are on forecast to be well in excess of 20,000 vehicles, doubling the total of 11,590 hybrid vehicles sold in 2018.

Hybrid deliveries this year are expected to exceed 10 per cent of Toyota’s overall sales, up from 5.3 per cent last year and 3.9 per cent in 2017.

In the first fourth months of this year, sales of Toyota’s hybrid vehicles have risen by 85 per cent compared with the same period a year ago.
The 2019 tally of 5,613 hybrid cars represents almost 8.7 per cent of the brand’s total sales and compares with 3,029 hybrid cars or 4.4 per cent of sales at the same time last year. In April 2019, Toyota sold 1,458 hybrid vehicles or 9.6 per cent of its total sales for the month.

Hybrids account for almost half of all Camry sales this year (45.4 per cent), up from 39.6 per cent last year and 20.7 per cent in 2017.

A similar trend has emerged for Corolla, with hybrid variants now comprising 31.4 per cent of 2019 sales compared with 12.5 per cent last year and 5.8 per cent in 2017.


[Read more here]

There are no easily accessible data for EV sales in OZ, but this (old) chart from RenewEconomy shows how sales have progressed since the introduction of the Nissan Leaf in 2011.  Again, these data exclude hybrids.  Sales of 6700 (but including plug-in hybrids) in 2019 is a big jump on the 1400 in 2016.   Sales of cars with an electric engine (EVs, PHEVs, HEVs) are likely to double every year from now on.



The pattern, duplicated across many countries, is clear.  Petrol/diesel sales are slumping, prolly because consumers are waiting to buy an EV/PHEV/HEV, while sales of cars with some sort of electric engine are exploding.  And many consumers are settling for HEVs because EVs are still too costly but with a hybrid, they can still cut their greenhouse gas emissions as well as their petrol bills