Electrics 22% of German car market in July

[By 'electrics' I mean cars with an electric engine, even if they also have a petrol/diesel engine, in other words, EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids]

 From CleanTechnica

The German auto market is nearly back to normal, down just 5% in July, but the local plugin electric vehicle market is far beyond that — it’s red hot right now. Plugin vehicles (fully electric vehicles as well as plugin hybrids) scored an amazing 36,000 registrations in July, which not only a new record, but is 85% above the last record, made last March.

And if while fully electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 182% year over year (YoY) last month, to almost 17,000 units, PHEV registrations went though the roof, up 485%(!), to some 19,000 units. That means that plugins as a whole jumped an amazing 302%(!) last month, with the plugin vehicle share reaching an amazing 11% (5.3% BEV). The 2020 tally was thus pulled to 8.5% (4% BEV).

The German plugin market started the second half of the year on fire thanks in part to strong new electric vehicle incentives, with a record month in the usually slow July. Without a doubt, more record months to come (ahem, September), and we may have already reached the “tipping point” in Germany, at which disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever. We could see this market reach 10% plugin share already this year, which would mean 2021 would see this market surf the steepest part of the S-curve during that whole year.

After years of asking “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”, we can finally say that, yes, we have arrived, so let’s sit back and enjoy the disruption show unfold before our eyes.

Of course the 300% growth rate year over year for plug-ins will slide, unless incentives are increased.  Let's assume that the growth rate slows to 25%.  Global EV sales have been growing at 50% per annum, so this is conservative.  At this growth rate, plug-ins will have 90% of the new car market by 2030.  Petrol/diesel demand will be falling by 7.5% per annum, assuming an average car life of 12 years.  But that's a conservative growth rate.  As battery costs decline (and they are falling by 20% per annum), EV costs will be falling by 6% a year.   EVs could move to 100% of the market much more quickly.