BYD targets Europe

 

BYD Seal

From Business Insider

BYD has set its sights on Tesla's European backyard.

The Chinese EV maker announced on Monday that it would nearly triple the number of sales and service locations in Germany, the home of Tesla's European gigafactory, by the end of 2026.

The German expansion comes as part of a larger European push that will see the number of BYD stores on the continent double to more than 2,000 next year, executives said in a press conference at the IAA Mobility summit in Munich.

BYD, China's biggest automaker, has bet heavily on overseas markets as it confronts fierce competition back home.

According to executive vice president Stella Li, the company now sells 13 models in Europe, and sales have surged so far this year.

BYD outsold rival Tesla in Europe for the second time this year in July, as Elon Musk's carmaker grapples with slowing sales in its third-largest market.

Buoyed by recent success, BYD is now looking to put down roots. The company showed off its new SEAL 6 DM-i Touring, a hybrid sedan with a combined range of up to 1505km, in Munich, and is building a factory in Hungary with a production capacity of 200,000 cars a year.

Li told reporters that the Hungarian plant, which will allow BYD to avoid the 17% tariff imposed on Chinese cars by the European Union last year, would begin production by the end of 2025. She added that the $24,500 Dolphin Surf hatchback will be the first car to be made in the factory.

BYD is also planning to roll out its ultra-fast "megawatt" EV chargers in Europe, which the company says can add 400km of range in just five minutes.

Li said BYD aimed to install 200 to 300 of the ultrafast chargers, which are twice as powerful as Tesla's top EV chargers, in Europe by the second quarter of 2026.

Last 12 months hottest ever

The last 12 months have been the hottest ever recorded.  

This chart is from Our World in Data.  Look how the temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere have been rising almost twice as fast as in the Southern Hemisphere.   In fact, they are now more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  We have passed the 2 degrees "guideline" in the Northern Hemisphere.  

This is a terrifying chart.  After the last El Niño, temperatures were supposed to level off or even drop.  But they haven't.   

You would expect our leaders, political and corporate, to be concerned, to be panicking, even.  Yet they are not.  And a supine populace just accepts this.  

It's no good expecting anything to change unless we do it.  We can change our personal consumption to reduce emissions.  For example, we can become vegetarian.  We can buy an EV or a hybrid.  We can replace our gas/oil heating with heat pumps.   We can buy our electricity from green suppliers.  We can put solar panels on our roofs.   We can fly less.  Take public transport instead of driving everywhere.  

Of course, we might not be able to do all these things.  Solar panels have an upfront cost, even if you'll save by reducing how much electricity you'll buy later on.  Or there might not be green electricity supplies in your area.  But you can eat less meat and drink less cow's milk.  That won't add to your costs.  

And we can vote.   We can agitate and write letters to our local councils.  We can support parties which make climate change their priority.

It's up to us.  Don't shrug and say, "it's too hard."  Because if we don't act, we face imminent catastrophe. 

These anomalies are not relative to the period 1850 to 1899, which usually what is defined as being pre-industrial, but to the period 1861-1890.   The shape of the chart won't change, but the Y-scale will shift a bit.

Carbon emissions by mode of transport

I got this from Mastodon.  I haven't worked out yet how to link to a Mastodon post.  BTW, my Mastodon account is: @Nigel_Purchase@mastodon.au

I'd walk to the shops, but my knees are too sore.  Sad.

Global EV/PHEV sales double in February

 From CleanTechnica

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 99% in February 2022 compared to February 2021. There were 541,000 registrations, representing 9.3% share (6.4% BEV share) of the overall auto market. That’s almost a doubling of plugin vehicle sales from a year ago, which means that the global automotive market is already entering the Electric Disruption Zone.

Add the 587,000 units of plugless hybrids registered in February and we have some 20% of the overall global market having some form of electrification last month. With March possibly being a record month, we should see over 25% share of electrified registrations!

See how, in my chart below, unadjusted data (turquoise line)for November & December are strong, while January and February are weak. The seasonally adjusted data (tan line) removes this seasonal pattern, and has moved to a new high.  Note that the chart uses a logarithmic scale, which means that a constant growth rate produces a straight line.  Each tick mark shows a three-fold increase 

Global EV/PHEV sales are doubling every year.  This means that the EV/PHEV percentage could reach 20% of total sales by the end of this year and 40% by the end of next.  China is removing all EV price incentives next year, so the growth rate may dip.  On the other hand, the Russo-Ukraine war has demonstrated just how important energy independence from dictatorial petro-states is.  Expect initiatives to encourage EVs to ramp up in Europe, and incentives to buy EVs in China to be extended.  You can see the levelling off in global EV sales in 2019, the last time China slashed incentives.  This lasted just a year before the uptrend resumed.  Even in Australia, with negligible incentives and a per-kilometre road tax of 2.5 cents, EV sales have more than doubled year on year.

It seems clear to me that EV/PHEV  sales will have reached at least 70% of global car/light truck sales by the end of 2025.

France's plug-in share breaks records

 From CleanTechnica

France, Europe’s second largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle share of 24.4% in December, a new record high, with pure electrics taking 14.6%. Diesel meanwhile dropped to a new record low of 17.4%. The overall auto market, at just under 160,000 units, was down some 15% from pre-pandemic seasonal averages.

December’s record 24.4% result for combined plugins comprised 14.6% full electrics (BEVs) and 9.8% for plugin hybrids (PHEVs), continuing a shift towards BEVs over recent months, while PHEVs’ share has almost plateaued over the past 6 months.

The 2021 Q4 share for combined plugins was 23.7%, up from 15.4% in Q4 2020. BEVs have grown share more steeply, from 8.4% in Q4 2020 to 13.8% in Q4 2021.

Diesels meanwhile hit a record low share of 17.4% in December, and 18.3% in Q4 overall, down from 26.5% and 29.4%, respectively, in 2020.

In terms of absolute sales volumes, BEVs’ Q4 performance has also remained relatively strong, increasing 37% year-on-year (to 55,175 units), in the context of overall auto market volume falling 17.5% year-on-year. For example, diesels’ Q4 2021 volume (73,029 units) was just 51% of what it was in Q4 2020 (see the foot of the article for a sales-by-powertrain graphic).

German plug-in share reaches record 36%

 From CleanTechnica

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market and the world’s 5th largest, saw plugin electric vehicle share hit a record of 35.7% in December, up from 26.6% year-on-year. Full battery electrics took 21.3% of the market. Overall auto volumes were down to 227,630 units, the lowest December result of recent decades. Seeing significant month-on-month growth were three of the most affordable electrics, the VW e-up!, Renault Twingo, and Dacia Spring.

December’s record combined plugin result of 35.7% comprised 21.3% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 14.4% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), a weighting roughly consistent with recent months.

2021’s Q4 combined plugin result was 33.7% (with 19.7% BEV and 14.0% PHEV). This was decent year-on-year growth from the Q4 2020 result of 21.7% (with 10.9% BEV and 10.8% PHEV). We can see that BEVs led that growth.

2021’s cumulative full year plugin result was 26.0% (with 13.6% BEV and 12.4% PHEV). This is close to double the full year 2020 plugin share of 13.5% (with 6.7% BEV and 6.8% PHEV). Notice how BEVs more than doubled their share over the 12 months.

Note that hybrids and full PEVs (EVs + PHEVs) made up 51.5 of the total market in December.  

Germany: plug-ins 29% of car sales

 From CleanTechnica

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle market share of 28.7% in September 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year. Full electrics alone took 17.1% of the market, overtaking diesel’s share (15.9%) for the first time. The overall auto market, at 196,972 units, was down around 20% from the same month in 2019 (pre-COVID). VW Group strongly dominated EV sales.

August’s combined plugin result of 28.7% comprised 17.1% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 11.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This is a continuing shift toward BEVs from recent months. PHEVs have been flat over the past 10 months, staying consistently close to 12% share, whilst BEVs have been climbing. In September 2020, BEVs took 8% of the market, so have more than doubled their share over the intervening 12 months.

Germany’s 2021 cumulative plugin share now stands at 23.7%, over double the 10.0% of a year ago. BEVs’ record 17.1% share put them ahead of diesels for the first time in the modern era, with the latter only taking 15.9% of the market (from 25.6% a year ago).

Petrols’ share has remained stubbornly flat over the past 10 months, fluctuating around 36% to 39% share. This will change in December, when plugins will have their seasonal blowout peak.

The transition is now accelerating in earnest in Germany. Historically, September is exceeded further by the final months of the year, and this year will likely follow on trend.

With September already at 28.7%, I would estimate that all Q4 months will be above 30%, and December will almost certainly be above 40%, with 25-30% of that total being BEVs.

If you add in hybrids, i.e, cars with an electric engine but without a plug, nearly 50% of car sales in September were electric or semi-electric.  Assuming cars last 15 years, I estimate that demand for petrol and diesel in Germany will already be falling by 2.5% per annum.  As the percentage of electrics and semi-electrics in total car sales rises, this will increase to 6% per annum.  As Germany (and the EU) are also switching away from coal, their total emissions will be falling by 4 or 5% per annum, right on target for a 5% cut by 2035.  This is wonderful news.

This is the sneeze

 From a Twitter thread by Michael Liebreich.  Liebreich was the founder of BNEF.

The share of BEVs plus plug-in hybrids in Germany jumped from 3.1% in 2019 to 13.6% last year. And the Tesla 3 only just made it into the top three models. 

Remember the sneeze? The first 1% takes forever; up to 5% is like waiting for a sneeze. Well, this is the sneeze:

Here is the sneeze, for those wondering what the hell I'm talking about: it's the point at which substitution curves suddenly accelerate.  Substitution curves: "The first 1% takes forever; 1% to 5% is like waiting for a sneeze – you know it’s inevitable but it takes longer than you think; then 5% to 50% happens incredibly fast. Clean energy is entering this period of rapid transformation.

In response, Wolf-Peter Schill, posted the monthly chart for 2020 which shows just how rapidly EVs and PHEVs  are penetrating the market.   As Liebreich says, 50% penetration is not far away.  2023?  And 75%?  2025?

Under a new president and administration, the USA  will accelerate the take-up of electric cars with tax credits; Europe is well on the way to 50% penetration; and China has an aggressive EV policy.  These giant markets will drive costs down the learning curve.  EVs will dominate sales by 2026 or 2027, globally. 

Fossil-fuelled car share in Germany plunges

 From Clean Energy Wire

Electrics 22% of German car market in July

[By 'electrics' I mean cars with an electric engine, even if they also have a petrol/diesel engine, in other words, EVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids]

 From CleanTechnica

The German auto market is nearly back to normal, down just 5% in July, but the local plugin electric vehicle market is far beyond that — it’s red hot right now. Plugin vehicles (fully electric vehicles as well as plugin hybrids) scored an amazing 36,000 registrations in July, which not only a new record, but is 85% above the last record, made last March.

And if while fully electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 182% year over year (YoY) last month, to almost 17,000 units, PHEV registrations went though the roof, up 485%(!), to some 19,000 units. That means that plugins as a whole jumped an amazing 302%(!) last month, with the plugin vehicle share reaching an amazing 11% (5.3% BEV). The 2020 tally was thus pulled to 8.5% (4% BEV).

The German plugin market started the second half of the year on fire thanks in part to strong new electric vehicle incentives, with a record month in the usually slow July. Without a doubt, more record months to come (ahem, September), and we may have already reached the “tipping point” in Germany, at which disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever. We could see this market reach 10% plugin share already this year, which would mean 2021 would see this market surf the steepest part of the S-curve during that whole year.

After years of asking “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”, we can finally say that, yes, we have arrived, so let’s sit back and enjoy the disruption show unfold before our eyes.

Of course the 300% growth rate year over year for plug-ins will slide, unless incentives are increased.  Let's assume that the growth rate slows to 25%.  Global EV sales have been growing at 50% per annum, so this is conservative.  At this growth rate, plug-ins will have 90% of the new car market by 2030.  Petrol/diesel demand will be falling by 7.5% per annum, assuming an average car life of 12 years.  But that's a conservative growth rate.  As battery costs decline (and they are falling by 20% per annum), EV costs will be falling by 6% a year.   EVs could move to 100% of the market much more quickly.