Germany: plug-ins 29% of car sales

 From CleanTechnica

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle market share of 28.7% in September 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year. Full electrics alone took 17.1% of the market, overtaking diesel’s share (15.9%) for the first time. The overall auto market, at 196,972 units, was down around 20% from the same month in 2019 (pre-COVID). VW Group strongly dominated EV sales.

August’s combined plugin result of 28.7% comprised 17.1% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 11.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This is a continuing shift toward BEVs from recent months. PHEVs have been flat over the past 10 months, staying consistently close to 12% share, whilst BEVs have been climbing. In September 2020, BEVs took 8% of the market, so have more than doubled their share over the intervening 12 months.

Germany’s 2021 cumulative plugin share now stands at 23.7%, over double the 10.0% of a year ago. BEVs’ record 17.1% share put them ahead of diesels for the first time in the modern era, with the latter only taking 15.9% of the market (from 25.6% a year ago).

Petrols’ share has remained stubbornly flat over the past 10 months, fluctuating around 36% to 39% share. This will change in December, when plugins will have their seasonal blowout peak.

The transition is now accelerating in earnest in Germany. Historically, September is exceeded further by the final months of the year, and this year will likely follow on trend.

With September already at 28.7%, I would estimate that all Q4 months will be above 30%, and December will almost certainly be above 40%, with 25-30% of that total being BEVs.

If you add in hybrids, i.e, cars with an electric engine but without a plug, nearly 50% of car sales in September were electric or semi-electric.  Assuming cars last 15 years, I estimate that demand for petrol and diesel in Germany will already be falling by 2.5% per annum.  As the percentage of electrics and semi-electrics in total car sales rises, this will increase to 6% per annum.  As Germany (and the EU) are also switching away from coal, their total emissions will be falling by 4 or 5% per annum, right on target for a 5% cut by 2035.  This is wonderful news.