Plug-in hybrids almost as bad as ICEVs

 From The Guardian

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) pump out nearly five times more planet-heating pollution than official figures show, a report has found.

The cars, which can run on electric batteries as well as combustion engines, have been promoted by European carmakers as a way to cover long distances in a single drive – unlike fully electric cars – while still reducing emissions.

Data shows PHEVs emit just 19% less CO2 than petrol and diesel cars, an analysis by the non-profit advocacy group Transport and Environment found on Thursday. Under laboratory tests, they were assumed to be 75% less polluting.

The researchers analysed data from the onboard fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They found real-world carbon dioxide emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than those from standardised laboratory tests, having risen from being 3.5 times greater in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are going up, while official emissions are going down,” said Sofía Navas Gohlke, a researcher at Transport and Environment and the co-author of the report. “This is the gap that is getting worse and it is a real problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol cars.”

The researchers attributed most of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles travelled in electric mode to the total miles travelled – finding that 27% of driving was done in electric mode even though official estimates assumed 84%. The European Commission has announced two corrections to the utility factor ratio that will narrow the gap but not close it entirely, according to the analysis.

Even when the cars were driven in electric mode, the analysis found that levels of pollution were well above official estimates. The researchers said this was because electric motors were not strong enough to operate alone, with their engines burning fossil fuels for almost one-third of the distance travelled in electric mode.

Patrick Plötz, head of energy economics at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, who was not involved in the study, said it was a “very useful contribution” after years in which parts of the automotive industry argued there was too little data to accurately assess real-world emissions.

“The results demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions is much, much larger than for gasoline or diesel cars,” said Plötz, who has published research on the topic. “Any policy changes with respect to PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of that data.”

Hybrid cars have been drawn back into the political debate as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO2 targets. A ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has been subject to heavy lobbying from the automotive industry and opposition from member states with large car industries.

“There must not be a drastic cut in 2035,” the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said after a summit last week with the country’s struggling automobile industry, promising to do “everything in [his] power” to achieve that. Other senior German politicians have floated plug-in hybrids as one example of possible “flexibilities” they could introduce to the legislation.

Have European car companies learnt nothing from Volkswagen's diesel emissions scandal?  They're still lying to us.   Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) do not use 75% less petrol per kilometre, compared to petrol/diesel cars.  No.  They use just 20% less.  People who bought PHEVs assuming they were doing something about the climate were deceived, deliberately.  Governments were deceived and lied to.  I supported plug-in hybrids because we were told they used 80% less petrol than ICEVs.  And that was a lie.

This is a good point to talk about EREVs:  extended range electric vehicles.  Like hybrids, they have a petrol and an electric motor.  Unlike hybrids, the petrol motor is not connected to the wheels.  Instead, it charges the battery, but only when the battery is nearing empty.  Normally, you would charge your EREV overnight, perhaps, ready for your daytime commute, or over the day from your solar panels.   The 60 or 80 or 100 km range from the battery will be enough for 90% of the time, since most journeys are relatively short.  Only occasionally do you need much more range.  For example, I live in a provincial town.  I rarely drive more than 20 km a day.  However, every 3 months or so, I drive to the big city, which is 180 km away.  Most of the EVs I could afford, don't have enough range to get there, drive around, and get back without recharging.   And many I've spoken to in the town cite this as a reason not to buy an EV.  For us, right now, an EREV would be a good option.  

The Chevrolet Volt was an EREV, and it used the petrol engine so rarely that GM's engineers had to put in an override which forced the petrol engine to turn on every three months, just to keep it working properly.  In their case, the claim that it reduced petrol consumption by 80% was completely plausible.

The authorities should immediately withdraw subsidies for plug-in hybrids, but extend those for EREVs.  In a few years, batteries will be so cheap that range-extenders will not be necessary.  Until then, EREVS  fill a niche.

China Set To Add 62-Mile Minimums For PHEV Range

Legacy auto makers face disaster

From The Driven

We are currently witnessing a major disruption in the world’s largest car market, that will have massive implications for the biggest carmakers as they seek to manage the switch from fossil fuel vehicles to electric.

Potentially millions of petrol and diesel cars may about to become unsellable in China as the country implements new vehicle emissions standards, and as EV demand booms. With China already experiencing a car inventory crisis, the next three months could spell disaster for some legacy auto companies.

Auto News recently reported that the China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce (CADCC) posted an article on March 23 on WeChat saying that dealers could be left with hundreds of thousands of non-compliant unsellable petrol and diesel vehicles once China’s new emission standard is implemented in July.

According to its website, the CADCC had over 8000 auto dealer members as of 2019.

More details on the CADCC March 23 article – now deleted – were given on the Shanghai Metals Market SSM news site on Monday in post titled Industry Association Appeals for Delayed Enforcement of Imminent China VI B Emission Standards to Tackle Huge Inventory Pressure.

The Chinese metals industry publication is justifiably concerned as the inventory crisis will have massive flow on effects for auto industry metals suppliers.

The SSM article says the deleted document stated that the CADCC had “received reports from many auto dealer groups that the upcoming full implementation of the China VI B emission standards will bring enormous pressure to the survival of auto dealers.”SSM reports that in the document the CADCC appealed for three measures on behalf of the majority of auto dealers.

1. Postpone the implementation of the China VI B emission standards to January 1, 2024;
2. Car makers should stop producing new cars that do not meet the China VI B emission standards;
3. Auto OEMs should allocate existing new cars that do not meet the China VI B emission standards to dealers as soon as possible, and launch sales promotions.

China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line.

The “China 6 standard” is being implemented in two phases. The first phase, 6a took effect on July 1 2020 and the 6b standard will be implemented on July 1 2023.

The China 6 standard applies to light-duty vehicles up to 3,500 kg powered primarily by gasoline or diesel.

The International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT) says the China 6 standard combines best practices from both European and U.S. regulatory requirements in addition to creating its own.

The ICCT says “China 6b further lowers the limits by about one third to half of the magnitude for NOX [nitrogen oxide] , THC [Total hydrocarbons], NMHC [non-methane hydrocarbons] , PM [particulate matter], and CH4 [methane], on top of the China 6a standard.”

While the inventory crises is hitting Chinese dealerships hard, the biggest impacts will be felt by legacy auto companies who have failed to shift to electric vehicles.

The glut of hundreds of thousands of high polluting vehicles sitting in Chinese dealerships comes as Chinese consumers shift rapidly to EVs. Over 25% of all new cars sold in China in 2022 were electric.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), 27 million vehicles were sold in China in 2022, with almost 7 million being EVs. China accounted for around two-thirds of global sales of EVs last year.

Although the inventory crisis is playing out in China, counterintuitively Chinese car manufacturers may actually benefit while foreign legacy auto companies sales plummet in the world’s largest car market.

This is because electric vehicles make up a much higher proportion of the total production of Chinese automakers like BYD, while foreign companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are manufacturing and selling mostly petrol and diesel cars in China.

So it will be predominantly Japanese, German and US carmakers that are hit the hardest by the inventory crisis while Chinese EV companies as well as Tesla will continue to see demand grow.

This trend is already playing out in 2023.

In the first two months of the year, sales of Japanese brands in China have dropped by 40% year-on-year. German and Korean brands have dropped by around 20% while US brands have dropped 12.5%.

Meanwhile, Chinese brands have held steady with losses of ICE sales being offset with increased EV sales domestically.

And this trend is accelerating rapidly. EV output in China totalled 7 million units in 2022, an increase of 97% on 2021, while sales of electric vehicles rose by 93%.

The imminent implementation of new pollution standard will compound this trend even further.

Meanwhile, the two largest automakers in the world Volkswagen and Toyota aren’t even planning on launching mass produced EV models until 2027, which is still 4 years away.

The German and Japanese car giants are also two of the most indebted companies in the world, both with almost $US200 billion of debt and highly questionable valuations on their internal combustion factory assets.

An inventory glut of unsellable vehicles in the world’s largest car market is the last thing these companies need and with ICE vehicles sales plummeting, it’s difficult to see how they will survive.

In Japan, automotive manufacturers and the industries that support them are estimated to employ over 5 million workers. Around 8% of Japan’s workforce.

Because of Japan’s disastrous national hydrogen strategy (largely promoted by Toyota), the nation produces a trivial number of electric vehicles and as a result its addressable market in China is vanishing before its eyes.

With Chinese automakers largely shielded from the impacts of the new pollution standards because of their early move to EVs, it’s unlikely that the Chinese government will delay its implementation.

Its looking like the next few months will be crunch time for the legacy automotive industry.

The surplus stocks in China are likely to encourage steep price discounting and also greater exports.  The plunge in the lithium price is making EVs cheaper.    Tesla, with the highest margins in the EV business (in fact in the car business) wants to expand its market share, and can afford to cut prices.  BYD, the world's largest EV maker will defend its share and will take the fight into Tesla's court by increasing exports.  Expect the price of EVs to reach parity with the price of ICEVs far, far sooner than the consensus has it as China's auto price war explodes into world markets.   And expect legacy manufacturers to struggle and (prolly) fail.  

Source: The Driven

 

Toyota gives in

For several years now, Toyota has refused to sell full-electric cars.   The company was the first to produce a hybrid (the Prius) and have fiddled for years with trying to create a hydrogen fuel-cell car.  But the success of their competitors has finally persuaded Toyota to produce an EV.  The world's largest car makers, VW and Toyota are now (soon will be) producing EVs.  EVs have gone mainstream.

From The Guardian

Toyota has released details about its first mass-produced electric vehicle in a significant step for the world’s second-biggest carmaker.

The bZ4X is an SUV with optional rooftop solar panels that will be sold in both front-wheel or all-wheel-drive variants.

The public had its first look at the concept for the bZ4X – “bZ” stands for “beyond zero” – at the Shanghai motor show in April this year, but Toyota only published the details of the car on Friday.

The announcement is a step forward for Toyota, which has been slower to move into purely battery-powered electric vehicles than its competitors, relying heavily on hybrid technology instead.

While the car isn’t Toyota’s first electrified vehicle – that title was held by the short-lived RAV4 EV – it marks the first electric vehicle that will directly compete with industry rivals such as the Hyundai Ioniq and the Tesla Model Y.

Toyota already produces the second-generation Mirai, an electrified vehicle powered by a hydrogen fuel cell.

The bZ4X will be launched in Europe on 2 December, with orders to be placed by reservation. It is expected the model will enter series production from the middle of next year across “all regions worldwide” – though the precise timing, price and variants available has yet to be released. Toyota expects this will form an extended range of 70 electrified vehicles by 2025.

Subaru helped developed the vehicle and is expected to reveal its own EV model next year.

It is anticipated the bZX4 will arrive in Australia by late 2022. As Australia’s most popular car brand, it is expected the model will help Toyota take a dominant position in the country’s growing electric vehicle market, as its competitors have been put off by a lack of clear political leadership in making the transition.

Hybrid vehicles accounted for nearly a third of Toyota’s total sales in Australia this year. The bZ4x will be the first of 15 planned zero-emissions vehicles offered by Toyota, including seven bZ models.

Both variants will have a top speed of 160km/h, and will come with a 71.4kWh battery offering a range of roughly 500km. Toyota says the 150kW DC charger will allow the batteries to be recharged to 80% in 30 minutes.

Solar panels can be built into the roof for use while driving or when parked. Toyota says these panels will add an extra 1800km of driving distance each year, while allowing the car to be charged when parked or where there are no charging stations easily available.

Toyota BZ4

Toyota BZ4 interior

VW ramps up its EV plans

From Melbourne's The Age newspaper.

Volkswagen is stepping up its game to become the world’s biggest electric-car maker with a plan to build six battery factories in Europe and global investments in charging stations.

The manufacturer, which already has agreements for two sites, is exploring options for another four plants for a total capacity of 240 gigawatt-hours by the end of the decade, VW said in a statement. VW has the most comprehensive EV plan in the industry that’ll add about 50 purely battery-powered vehicles to its lineup by 2030. 

“We are now systematically integrating additional stages in the value chain,” chief executive officer Herbert Diess said. “We secure a long-term pole position in the race for the best battery.”

Emulating Tesla as well as General Motors. with a dedicated battery event dubbed “Power Day,” VW is giving the deepest dive yet on its strategy to beat a path to an electric future selling millions of EVs. Batteries have emerged as the key battleground with concerns over high costs squeezing margins and supply of raw materials such as nickel and cobalt.

VW will also invest €400 million euros ($615 million) by 2025 to build out much-needed charging infrastructure in Europe, after the region overtook China in EV sales last year. Fast-charging in Europe will grow five-fold to 18,000 stations, helped by co-operations with BP in the UK, Iberdrola and Spain and Enel in Italy as well as VW’s existing Ionity GmbH consortium.  In North America, VW is adding 3500 stations for this year and 17,000 points in China by 2025.

 

There's a bit of a suggestion in this article that, somehow, VW is going to beat Tesla.  We've heard of "Tesla killers" before and they've never been that.  Tesla is on a roll.  And it will shortly offer the Model 2 for $25,000.  The Tesla experience is like the Apple smartphone compared with the bakelite rotary dial.  Yes, the VW EVs will work.  But Teslas will have full self-driving (FSD), and even if that still takes another couple of years, you can still park, change lanes on a freeway, etc.  No other car maker has anything like that. 

VW begins production of the ID3

This is the beginning of the EV revolution.  Yes, Tesla started it.  But for one of the world's largest car companies to seriously (and I believe they are serious) start the transition to EVs in its own production and sales is when EVs start going mainstream.

From CleanTechnica:

I flew into Germany at dawn today on my way to Zwickau, where Volkswagen has converted a factory that used to make almost 300,000 gasoline- and diesel-powered cars per year, most of them part of its Golf family of vehicles. In 2018, production at the Zwickau factory was phased out so crews could begin transforming it into a production facility devoted exclusively to making 100% battery electric cars.

Tomorrow, November 4, German chancellor Angela Merkel and a host of dignitaries will be on hand in Zwickau to witness the start of series production of the ID.3, Volkswagen’s first electric car built on the all new MEB platform. By 2021, the Zwickau factory will be turning out 6 different models for three different Volkswagen Group brands for a total of 330,000 electric vehicles a year.

“Production start of the ID.3 ushers in a new era for Volkswagen — one comparable to the first Beetle or the first Golf. Zwickau will become the lead plant for this new era in the automotive industry: The plant is undergoing a phased conversion — from 100% internal combustion engines to 100% electric drives. We are therefore initiating a system changeover in the automotive industry that will unfold over the next one or two decades,” says Thomas Ulbrich, Volkswagen board member for E-Mobility.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Volkswagen. After a series of scandals rocked the company in 2015, there was a time when many thought Volkswagen — one of the largest automobile manufacturers on the planet — might actually go out of business. To stave off such a drastic result, the company committed to spending more than $35 billion on the design and manufacture of electric automobiles. It has committed to spending more than $50 billion for the batteries those cars will need over the next decade.

In short, it has gone back to basics and begun restructuring itself as an automobile manufacturing powerhouse for the 21st century. Shortly it will have 6 electric vehicle production facilities — two in Germany, one in the Czech Republic, one in the United States, and two in China. It says it will build 22 million electric cars between now and 2028.

The question on everyone’s mind is, will it find 22 million customers for its electric cars? It’s all well and good that its Porsche division is building great electric sports cars for the affluent, but to reach its volume targets it will need to have models that ordinary people can afford. Last spring, the company hinted it could offer versions of its electric cars that retail for as little as $22,000, albeit with smaller batteries and a range of around 125 miles.

But range may not be as much of a hindrance to EV sales in years to come as it once was. The charging infrastructure is expanding in Europe, where Volkswagen is part of the Ionity fast charging network, and in the US, where its Electrify America subsidiary is expanding rapidly. Volkswagen is also pushing ahead with EV charging infrastructure in China.

[Read more here]

125 miles (200 kms) of range is enough for 99% of trips for most people.   It's enough for commuting, going to the shops, visiting friends, picking up the kids from school.  It's inconvenient for long trips.  For example, on a Melbourne to Sydney trip (900 kms) you'll have to stop 5 times to recharge.  And in Australia, there still aren't many EV chargers.  But if you drive Melbourne to Sydney often, you won't buy an EV with a low range.  For everybody else, an EV with 200 kms range is adequate, and the total cost of running it will be half the cost of a petrol/diesel vehicle.  It was always likely that EVs would show a big range variation, with small cheap EVs with low ranges and luxury EVs with long ranges.  This is how the Chinese EV market is.

The revolution has begun.  EVs are already more than 7% of Europe's car sales.  Watch VW's range of electric cars drive that up to and beyond 20%.

VW's ID3 electric car

Rave preview of the VW EV

CleanTechnica has done a rave review of the new VW EV:

Volkswagen ID.3 Arrives — Superb Mix Of Quality & Affordability

Some years ago, Volkswagen Group discovered that the only legitimate way forward in the auto world was electrification. (Who knows what triggered that realization?) From that point on, from everything I’ve seen in the past few years, part of the company has been working hard to develop high-quality, competitive electric vehicles. The new ID.3 is proof of that.

The important news of today is that the Volkswagen ID.3 has been officially unveiled, camouflage removed and all. Actually, I should say, the important news of today is that the hot new Volkswagen ID.3 is a genuinely competitive, compelling electric offering.

We often compare new electric cars to Teslas because 1) Tesla has long set the standard in this industry, and 2) the new offerings are generally in the price range of certain Tesla vehicles. Unfortunately, we are often disappointed with market entrants. Tesla has some known competitive advantages in the electric auto world and those advantages have kept its vehicle specs and value for the money well ahead of the competition. Though, Tesla does not serve the needs and desires of all buyers, and well designed electric vehicles from other automakers can be highly competitive in additional vehicle classes if the automakers try to make them so. The Volkswagen ID.3 is definitely one of those vehicles.

The first important number is that the base version of the ID.3 will start below €30,000* ($33,150). That’s in the mainstream, mass-market segment. Calculate the tremendous operational savings you can get from an electric vehicle and you have a highly competitive electric hatchback that could sell in large volumes. (For comparison, note that the base price of the Tesla Model 3 is currently €43,390 in Germany and €48,980 in the Netherlands.)

The ID.3 interior is fairly high tech and looks like it has a semi-premium quality to it. So, even if other vehicles this size may come at a lower price point, it should be quickly apparent to consumers that this vehicle is in a different class from a gasoline or diesel compact car from VW.

Volkswagen is also smart to highlight that the interior of the ID.3 has a lot more space than you’d expect — “it offers more room than any other vehicle in its category and sets new standards.” Again, this comes down to good electric design from the ground up. Tesla has clearly maximized space in its vehicles via its “skateboard” battery and powertrain design. I have long said the BMW i3 did a good job of this as well, making an objectively tiny car feel like an open, fairly spacious crossover. Volkswagen’s MEB platform, which the ID.3 is based on and Volkswagen will use for many models, looks like a well designed platform that has, in this case, allowed Volkswagen to set a new standard for interior space in a car in this class. Drivers and passengers will appreciate it.

Climate showdown at Frankfurt car fair

A long article from Clean Energy Wire, so I'll just show a few snippets.  But it makes interesting reading in full.

This year's Frankfurt Motor Show steals the limelight for unusual reasons. Thousands of people will flock to the bi-annual industry fair – but many of them not to admire horsepower-proud vehicles, but instead to call for their abolishment. In a series of climate protests, demonstrators will highlight an inconvenient truth: Germany’s world famous carmakers are betting heavily on their polluting SUVs in order to finance tomorrow's clean alternatives. The pending clash at the key marketing event strikes BMW, Daimler and VW at a delicate time. Against the backdrop of a slowing economy, VW will unveil its first purpose-built electric model, a bid to create a new industry standard, while new Daimler and BMW CEOs may reveal highly anticipated further detail on their clean mobility strategy.

Energised by the impact of the Fridays for Future student movement, climate activists plan to descend to Frankfurt in droves, demanding a fundamental overhaul of current mobility policies and radical change at the carmakers. Supported by environmental NGOs Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND), and others, protesters will call for an immediate phase-out of combustion engines, climate-neutral mobility by 2035, lower speed limits and priority for pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport during a mass bicycle ride and a protest march. They also demand "efficient electro mobility instead of big electric SUVs," a jab at the new purpose-built electric vehicles from German carmakers, the Mercedes EQC, and the Audi e-tron, both weighing 2.5 tons even when they're empty.

Whereas previous protests often targeted climate-damaging SUVs or local transport policies, the broad attack on the entire car industry takes the demonstrations to a "new level," according to sociologist Simon Teune, who heads the Berlin Institute for Protest and Social Movement Studies (ipb). He told the newspaper tageszeitung that the protests could have a real impact in the medium term, because they will catapult the message into the media that the car industry has blocked climate policies and missed the boat on electric mobility - foiling the show's purpose to highlight industry achievements.

The IAA protests will no doubt call attention to the elephant in the room: Desperate for cash to finance the shift to green mobility, the carmakers bet on particularly climate-damaging SUVs, because these offer the highest profits. The contradiction is as obvious as it is hard to resolve, given that new clean mobility businesses are still far from being a money-spinner.

"For us, SUVs are certainly the models with the highest margins, and in view of the uncertainties surrounding the switch to electric mobility, it would be economically irresponsible to say that we are leaving this lucrative business to our competitors" argues VW. "The SUV offensive plays a crucial role in strengthening the core business and thus enabling Volkswagen to make the necessary investments in new technologies, sustainable mobility solutions and electromobility," the company told the Clean Energy Wire, adding that "the latest generation of SUVs is just as efficient in terms of fuel consumption as comparable vehicles in the respective compact or saloon classes." BMW only said it "offers vehicles in all segments with client demand," while Daimler ignored a question regarding SUV sales.

To the outrage of environmental activists, Mercedes is launching what they decry as the "monster SUV" GLS, which will top the short-term record holder BMW X7 as Germany's largest SUV. "Since the Mercedes GLS is too wide for car washes, it bends its wheels inwards. These are the absurd 'innovations' of which German carmakers are so proud," says NGO Environmental Action Germany (DUH), a vocal industry critic which set the ball rolling on diesel driving bans. These have been implemented in parts of some German cities - and may be rolled out in others - to get excessive pollution under control, constituting another headache for the industry.

Source: Clean Energy Wire

Volkswagen begins pre-production of EVs

The VW ID 3

I talked here about the sexy, classy ID Crozz, and EV from VW.  Well, VW has begun pre-production of another of its line-up of  EVs, the ID 3.

From CleanTechnica:

Pre-production examples of the Volkswagen ID.3 have begun rolling off the assembly in Zwickau, Germany. Before traditional car manufacturers introduce a new model, they build a few hundred or a few thousand pre-production vehicles. These are used for real world testing and for determining if the assembly line has got its sums right. They are tested for cold and hot weather performance, their fit and finish is rigorously assessed, and any issues or defects are reported back to management so changes and improvements can be put in place before final production begins.

According to a company press release, components for the new car are being manufactured at various other factories that are part of Volkswagen Group. The Kassel factory will build the electric drivetrain for all Volkswagen products for the European and North American market that are based on the new MEB electric car chassis. Components for those drivetrains are supplied by other factories in Salzgitter, Poznań, and Hanover. Saltgitter is where Volkswagen plans to build a new battery factory in cooperation with Northvolt.

The Kassel facility also works closely with the Volkswagen’s Tianjin factory in China, where the electric drive is produced in parallel for the Chinese market. Together, the two plants will produce up to 1.4 million electric drives each year beginning in 2023.

In addition to the electric drive, load-bearing components and body parts for the ID.3 are also produced at the Kassel factory, including the frame for the battery box, damper mounts, cross members and the central tunnel. The platform parts from Kassel are then delivered to the Zwickau plant to complete the vehicle body.

Volkswagen’s Brunswick factory develops and produces the battery systems that will be used in ID vehicles. It is there that battery cells are assembled into finished battery packs. A new factory as large as 9 soccer fields will be ready by late 2019 and will produce up to 2,000 battery packs a day. Those packs will then be shipped to the Zwickau factory where final assembly will take place.

This means an affordable EV will go on sale next year, from a major manufacturer.  Right now, VW's production of EVs is supply-constrained, specifically by limited battery-pack production facilities.  But when its battery factory is completed, the company will have capacity for 500,000 EVs a year.  Will VW's EVs be affordable?

We have no idea yet, but Herr Woebcken offers this clue. “In order to make EVs cost competitive, electric vehicles have to be built at scale, and Volkswagen has the potential to deliver global scale in EVs quickly. We stand for making electric cars affordable; as we like to say, we build cars for millions, not millionaires.”

If you are a high-cost oil producer (Canada tar sands oil, anyone?) or a legacy car manufacturer which hasn't got its EV act together, be afraid.  Be very afraid.

The sexy, classy Volkswagen ID Crozz

A strange name, but ....

This is a classy EV from a mainstream manufacturer.  And it will be available next year.  Next year.  At a reasonable price.

From CleanTechnica:

The car shown is still designated as a prototype but its general dimensions and appearance are all pretty much fixed at this point. It will have a total of 302 horsepower from both motors and an expected range of 300 miles. Official EPA numbers and pricing details will be released closer to the on sale date.

Volkswagen says the ID Crozz can get recharge to 80% capacity in 30 minutes using a 150 kW charger. It’s no coincidence the chargers that Electrify America is installing along major transportation routes in the US include 150 kW chargers.

“Electric mobility is the future, period, and today we take a big step forward,” said Hinrich J. Woebcken, head of Volkswagen Group of America. “The ID. CROZZ and the I.D. BUZZ concepts demonstrate how Volkswagen will kick off an EV revolution in America. The beauty of doing an all-new architecture is how much it can deliver to the customer.” The ID Crozz is built on VW’s all new MEB platform for electric cars.

The ID Crozz is a handsome vehicle. SUVs are all the rage these days and frankly they all tend to look alike. Squint a little and the new Peugeot 2008 bears more than a passing resemblance to the Volvo XC 40. The ID Crozz is somewhat different from its peers. For starters, it eschews the big grille in the front that has been the signature design element of cars with infernal combustion engines since forever.

It has a bit more of a sedan look in its side profile. But the most ambitious thing Volkswagen has done is not apparent at first glance. The ID Crozz features sliding rear doors, the very definition of every minivan on the planet. Elon Musk has a deep, abiding hatred of those sliding doors, which is why the Tesla Model X has those iconic but insanely complex falcon wing doors that delayed the debut of the X by more than a year.

Sliding doors are great for getting stuff into and out of vehicles easily. Since SUVs are all about hauling lots and lots of stuff, those doors should appeal strongly to buyers. But they also are burdened with the unfortunate “soccer mom” stigma. Putting sliders on an SUV should be a no brainer but will buyers embrace them or shun them because of their association with minivans?  [I think they'll love them—getting your small children in and out of the car will be made far easier]

Volkswagen has done an excellent job of designing sliders that don’t look like sliders until they are opened and they make access to the rear seat extra easy. They also make getting into a third row seat simple. Is Volkswagen planning on giving the ID Crozz a 7-passenger option? There’s no hint of third row seating in the photos but the Tesla Model Y will offer that option. Surely Volkswagen must be planning something similar?

The front doors also open a full 90 degrees, giving unparalleled access to the front seats, and the interior features a “floating” dashboard that does away with the traditional climate control/entertainment center stack, giving it a roomier appearance.

How much will one of these beauties cost? We have no idea yet, but Herr Woebcken offers this clue. “In order to make EVs cost competitive, electric vehicles have to be built at scale, and Volkswagen has the potential to deliver global scale in EVs quickly. We stand for making electric cars affordable; as we like to say, we build cars for millions, not millionaires.”

The ID Buzz is VW's new EV vesrion of the old Kombi. And it is very classy too:

The new electric VW Kombi

The VW 'ID Buzz', alias 'The New Kombi'.  Source: Green Car Reports

After the massive diesel-testing scandal ("Dieselgate") VW entered full-on PR mode, promising it would do better, and that it would start switching its production to EVs.  Nearly 3 years later, and it's becoming clear that they really meant it--new humongous battery orders, and new "concept" models.  The one I like most is the replacement for the VW Kombi, an iconic vehicle from my youth.  And now, VW has announced that the new EV range will also be produced in Germany as well as the US, to ensure that demand can be satisfied, and to tweak the range for US tastes.  The new Kombi will go on sale in 2022.   Despite this late roll-out, it does look as if VW is genuinely making the shift to EVs.   It's not at all clear that the other large legacy car makers are, though Jaguar and Volvo also appear to be switching.

Volkswagen plans to build two of its upcoming electric cars in the United States.

VW's North American CEO, Hinrich Woebcken, told British magazine Autocar that the models will be built in the United States and sold domestically.

"For strong product momentum, they need to be produced in the USA," he said. "It’s not possible to come into a high-volume scenario with imported cars. We want to localize electric mobility in the U.S.”

After years of selling niche products imported from Germany that were too expensive and too small to compete with big sellers in the U.S., VW began designing separate models for the U.S. market and building them in Tennessee.

The Passat, built in Tennessee for sale in the U.S. and China, is significantly larger than the Passat sold in Europe. The Atlas was designed specifically for the U.S. as the largest SUV VW has ever made. It is now sold in Britain, too.  The company has had considerably more success selling the Passat and Atlas here since it designed the cars specifically for the U.S. Building them here makes it cost-effective, as well.

[Read more here]

One thing's for sure.  The new Kombi, with the powerful torque from an electric motor,  will have much better speed uphill than the old one! 

An EV charging network to rival Tesla's

The factors holding back widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) have up till now been:

• Cost.  Electric cars have been more expensive than their petrol-driven equivalents (ICEVs) Only in the last year or so have we started to get EVs which cost the same as the average ICEV (the Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Bolt, Tesla's Model 3, though that is still not available in its cheapest configuration)
• Range.  Because batteries cost so much, most EVs had small battery packs, which meant they had low ranges, with the obvious exception of Tesla. 
• Charger network (again, with the exception of Tesla.)  These two (small battery packs and poor charging infrastructure) combined to produce range anxiety.  What if I run out of power 20 miles from home, or from the nearest charger?  How will I recharge my car if I'm stuck on the road miles from anywhere?
• Availability.  In the US there are 43 EVs/PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), of which 14 are pure EVs.  In Australia, there are a handful of either EVs or PHEVs.
• Knowledge.  In a recent survey in the US, nearly 2/3rds (60%) of Americans aid they were "unaware of electric cars".  Not all are "Tesla tragics" like me.

Of course, these factors all interact.  Because EVs were expensive, sales were low, so charging networks were scanty, which meant range anxiety was and is a big issue  (more than 72% in the survey I linked to above) which meant sales were low, and so on and so on.  On the other hand, this feedback between these factors can also be positive: more EVs on the road mean that there is an incentive to extend the charger network which reduces range anxiety and so on.

Electrify America's planned supercharger network.
The cities highlighted will be home to metro networks.
(Source: Green Car Reports)

In the US, the non-Tesla charge network is being given a kick start.  Ironically, this is because of Dieselgate  As part of its settlement of criminal charges, VW agreed to spend $2 billion building a network of EV/PHEV chargers across the US.  It set up a new subsidiary, Electrify America, to own and run the new chargers.  This report, from Green Car Reports, gives more detail:

Mark 2018 as the year that practical, widespread electric-car charging really started coming to America.

We've had a lot of news about new charging networks coming to the U.S., and it doesn't look like it will be slowing down any time soon.

Following the announcement last week that 100 Walmart stores would get electric car fast chargers, Electrify America has announced that it will install 2,000 additional fast-charging stations at 484 locations across the country.

Electrify America is building a network to rival Tesla Superchargers that will serve electric cars from all the other automakers. It will give them the same ability to drive across the country that Tesla drivers already enjoy.

The chargers are coming now thanks to Volkswagen's settlement with the government over its diesel emissions scandal.

Under a consent decree with the EPA and California, the company agreed to spend $2 billion over 10 years to build a nationwide charging network for electric cars. Electrify America was formed to spend that money and build out the network.

The consent decree stipulates that the chargers have to be compatible with and accessible to electric cars made by any automaker.

This latest announcement, along with the Walmart release last week, constitute the bulk of the first $500 million phase of that rollout.

We spoke with Electrify America's chief operating officer Brendon Jones to get a get more detail on what the new network will look like, and whether to expect the kind of convenience that Superchargers now offer. In short, the news sounds encouraging for those who drive electric cars other than Teslas.

In accordance with the consent decree, the new network will roll out in phases, much like the Supercharger network did in the beginning.

The goal of the first phase is to expand electric car access to major travel corridors and within 17 metro areas across the country. These are mainly, but not entirely, in coastal cities.

At the end of the first $500 million investment phase, Electrify America also expects to have chargers spaced at approximately 80 mile intervals along two major cross country routes. Other cities and other routes will follow until the network is completed nationwide at the end of Phase 4 in 2025. Each construction phase is expected to last about two years, making the rollout a little slower than Tesla's, but just as comprehensive.

[Read more here]

Electrify America will also be installing some very fast chargers:

The Terra High Power charger can charge an electric vehicle (EV) in just eight minutes, thus adding up to 200 km of range, says ABB, which launched the new model at this year’s Hannover Messe.

“By operating at powers of up to 350 kilowatts, the newest model from ABB, Terra High Power charger, adds up to 200 kilometers of range to an electric vehicle in just 8 minutes,” said ABB in a statement released. This is said to add seven times more range in the same time than current models on the market.

ABB added that it has recently been selected for use by Electrify America, which announced last week that it will install electric vehicle chargers at more than 100 Walmart locations across 34 states by June 2019.

[Read more here]

Of course, this is still a decade behind Tesla.  But it's happening, at last.  Range anxiety will soon be a thing of the past. 

An aside:  The logical place for EV chargers would be at service stations.  EV sales is the US will be 5% of total sales by the middle of 2020, or earlier.  They're doubling every 18 months, so by 2023 they will be 20% of total sales.  If you own a chain of service stations, you should be starting to worry about declining petrol sales. Service stations (at least here in Oz) already offer coffee, snacks, and junk food as well as petrol.  Installing fast chargers would complement your existing business.  The European oil majors (BP, Total and Shell) seem to be aware of this risk to their retail businesses, with plans to roll out superchargers to European service stations.  The US oil companies do not.

VW's epiphany and conversion

For a long time, car manufacturers said that diesel cars would achieve low emissions, clean air, and so on, without the need for those pesky electric cars that Tesla and Chinese manufacturers were building.  "Clean diesel" (how we laughed) was going to save the world.  Except --  VW had lied about actual emissions by its diesel cars and faked the tests.  This Wikipedia article is an excellent summary of the whole sorry debacle.

Well, in the way of those who sin, VW has had an epiphany ("Oh, wait!  What we did was wrong!) and a conversion ("We need to move towards electric cars, because .... you know ... image and stuff") Christian Senger, head of VW's electric car division, had this to say at the Shanghai motor show:

“Offering our electric cars for prices similar to combustion engine vehicles really is a game changer.”
“We’re using the need to step from combustion engine to electric cars to reinvent VW brand.” 

[Read more here]

So VW will offer at least 4 EVs costing the same as ICEs "in the next few years".   Maybe.  Actually I think of all the heritage car manufacturers, VW is the one closest to being born again.  Toyota is still il love with hydrogen-cell cars, and most of the other manufacturers produce only enough cars to comply with California clean air regulations (GM and its Bolt EV).  VW's concept cars look quite classy, don't they?  We shall see how much of this is airware.

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