European electric car registration figures for July show the EV category (comprising hybrid, plug-in hybrid and full-battery EVs reaching a new high of 7.4% [actually 7.3%] of all new vehicle registrations.
The total EV segment nearly broke the 100,000 mark with 96,600 units in an overall July market of 1,325,600 units. (For comparison, the Australian market is around 1,100,000 units a year).
Whilst the overall vehicle market saw a small rise over July 2018 (+1.2%), the year-to-date figure is still down (-2.5%) as compared to last year.
Much of the BEV registrations increase was due to Tesla’s Model 3 – but it was not the top selling BEV in July. That honour went to the Renault Zoe: up 103% and lifting the Zoe to top selling BEV model.
I remember a lecturer at U.C.T.'s (the University of Cape Town) business school showing us examples of where a new technology starts out with a tiny market share and start to rise, with the rise accelerating each year. When it crosses 5%, the eventual rise to 100% is certain, in the familiar technology S-curve adoption pattern. Two examples quoted (as I remember) were the replacement of the great clippers by steamships and the replacement of black and white TV by colour.
EV/PHEV/HEV vehicle sales have passed the 5% mark in Europe. They will move inexorably to 100%, and the S-curve may be much steeper than most commentators and analysts now expect.
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