Here's another indicator for the USA, showing how a recovery began, but has died.
The series depicted is my own US coinciding index, which is designed to coincide with the economic cycle. You can see how growth slowed to the trough in 2023, started to pick up in 2024, and really accelerated in late 2024 and early 2025 before sliding again.
Again, the slowdown up to 2023 was caused by the Fed raising rates, the recovery since then was caused by the diminishing impact of the rise in rates and the increasing impact of falling rates. And the plunge since April is due to the uncertainty and damaging effect of Trump's tariffs and other policy initiatives.
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