No, the EV market is not collapsing, but battery prices are

Land transport emits ~20% of global CO2 emissions.  By 2040, most of the global land transport fleet will be electric.   Good news.

 From The Driven

[T]he claimed collapse of the EV market is not actually a thing. Yes, sales have fallen in some markets, such as Italy, Japan and Germany – the homes of some of the world’s most notable car brands – but they are gaining in most other countries, even including the US, which has grown 3 per cent in the first quarter, year on year.

Spectacular growth is being witnessed in the huge China and India markets, and France and the UK are also doing well.

“EV sales are headed for another record year,” says one of the lead authors, Colin McKerracher.

“Despite the headlines to the contrary, global EV sales continue to grow and are set to rise about 20 per cent this year. Combustion vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and have no real route back to that peak.”

Another interesting part of the market is the commercial vehicle market, and the heavy vehicle market.

“Electrification of commercial vehicles is a bright spot, with just under a million sales expected this year,” McKerracher says. “Other areas like two/three wheelers and buses have already achieved high levels of EV adoption.”

BNEFs outlook is for continued strong growth, with 20 per cent of light truck sales to be fully electric in 2027, 9 per cent of medium and heavy duty truck sales and 52 per cent of bus sales. Not that you would notice in Australia.

BNEF predicts heavy duty trucks sales will be 18 per cent electric by 2030, and 43 per cent by 2040.

“Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030,” it says.

“In heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles initially. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains. ”

One of the big reasons is the falling costs of battery storage, and the fact that are going to continue to fall.

“Battery prices in China are plummeting,” McKerracher says. “Year-to-date cell prices for LFP cells in China are $US53/kWh (which is down from the 2023 global average price of $US95/kWh). Overcapacity and low raw material prices are a factor, but processes and technology are also still improving.

“We’re nowhere near the end of how good this technology can get.”

Electric truck battery swap much cheaper than diesel

 Electrifying cars and light trucks is relatively easy compared to the electrification of heavy trucks.  They need so much more power than cars and light trucks and therefore have a much bigger battery pack.  Which means either that they will take much longer to recharge or they will need much more powerful fast chargers.  Tesla has chosen the second option with its 'semi'.  The alternative is to swap out discharged battery packs, and replace them with already charged batteries. 

 

 From The Driven 

Electric truck maker Janus has debuted the first battery-powered prime mover in Australia and has plans to set up battery swap stations up and down the eastern seaboard within months.

Janus director Bevan Dooley shared a video of the company’s first road-ready prime mover to Youtube on Sunday, ahead of plans to make units available for trial by fleets in March.

Giving a loud “honk honk” as the converted Freightliner Coronado drives by – in stark contrast to its relatively silent drive down a street – the video is a first taste of the company’s plans to electrify long haul truck fleets using only batteries.

The company plans to offer new prime movers installed with its Janus Conversion Model (JCM) as well as converting existing diesel trucks for fleets that are due for an engine replacement or overhaul.

“Fleets are very eager to come on onboard – they are getting getting pressure for customers for carbon zero solutions,” general manager Lex Forsyth tells The Driven.

Notably, the company is planning to install “Change and Charge” stations at key locations on major routes to avoid lengthy recharge times. Also known as “battery swap”, this is a method also being deployed in China, and also now Norway, by EV maker Nio for its range of electric cars.

For Janus trucks, it will mean batteries can be dropped off and charged on-site, reducing downtime for drivers and lengthening the life of the battery.

“Fast-charging (semi trailers) is not viable,” he says, as generally only 60% of battery would be used to ensure the battery doesn’t degrade too quickly.

The vehicle in the video above has two 620kWh batteries on either side of the cab, meaning almost 500kWh worth of battery materials would essentially go unused most of the time.

Also, he says, “the size of the power feed to charge within an hour is just huge. We want to give the operator 100% use of the battery, and a sustainable future for the battery.”

Forsyth says depending on what the prime mover is towing, it will get 500-600 km range for a single trailer or 400-500km for a B-double.

The company is making plans to install its Change and Charge stations in Sydney, Port Macquarie, Grafton and Brisbane to begin with. It has also secured a site at Port Augusta in Adelaide, and has plans to expand down and across to Melbourne.

“When drivers take their scheduled fatigue breaks of 15-30 minutes, that’s where we are locating the Change and Charge stations,” he says.

He says that the choice to make battery-electric prime movers over hydrogen is purely numbers-based. In fact, he says that hydrogen fuel cell technology is the most expensive solution.

“Fleets are learning that hydrogen is not the answer – the numbers are not stacking up,” he says.

He gives an example of Brisbane to Sydney which is an approximately 960km-long trip. A battery electric truck will need around 1732kWh of energy to pull a B-double up the coast at a cost of around $320.

By contrast, a diesel truck needs 520 litres of fuel to do the trip which will cost about $780-790 (after the fuel rebate is applied). Hydrogen, however, would cost a mind-blowing $1450 using current US prices which equate to around $A18 a kilo (a truck would need 80 kilos to do the trip).

He points out that the “magic number” of $2 a kilo touted by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency would only be achievable if electricity cost 5c per kilowatt-hour.

“If I can buy electricity for that much I’ll put it straight into batteries,” he says. “And even if the cost of hydrogen came down to $7-8 it’s still dearer than diesel.”

“We’re not trying to bash hydrogen, it just doesn’t make sense as an energy source.”

Another advantage of using batteries – and in particular by employing a battery swap method over fast-charging – is that fleets can keep up with cell technology more easily.

Forsyth says that he believes lithium-sulphur technology will mean Janus trucks can do 1,000-1,800km in the not-too-distant future.

“As new tech comes economically technology and available, we just change the cells.”

To begin with, the battery cells will be changed manually using forklifts but the company plans to introduce robotic pallet lifters to do the job once routes have been established.

The company is also setting up approved dealership networks to support fleets in all Charge and Change locations.

Asked if he thinks Janus is limited by the same cell constraints that is holding the tesla Semi back, he says: “We can source enough cells for what we want to do right now – we just need right energy density (from a multitude of cell makers).”

He says that Janus will complete road testing by end of February and be open for fleets testing by the end of March.

[Note the cost estimates.  Electricity: $320 for ±1000 km; $780 after the diesel rebate for diesel; $1450 for hydrogen-cell.  Note also that the old diesel engine can be replaced by an electric engine.]

Kenworth Launches Electric Trucks

 From InsideEvs:

[Kenworth is a US truck manufacturer]

They are now available for order in the U.S. and Canada with initial deliveries expected later this year.

Kenworth announced that its first two all-electric trucks, the Class 6 K270E (shown at 2020 CES) and Class 7 K370E are now available for orders in the U.S. and Canada.

The trucks, equipped with Dana tech, are offered with two battery options - 141 kWh or 282 kWh - for two ranges - 100 miles (160 km) or 200 miles (320 km).

For charging, the manufacturer envisioned DC fast charging (J1772 combo aka CCS Combo 1) in one hour or overnight AC charging.

There are also two electric motor options: 355 hp or 469 hp, so customers will be able to configure the right solution for their needs. According to the manufacturer, the trucks are able to start the load from a stop on a 20 percent grade and have the power to maintain 40 mph on a 6 percent grade while fully loaded.

Kenworth is a conventional truck manufacturer.  When a company like this starts selling electric trucks, you know that EVs are going mainstream.  An electric motor provides lots of torque, but the issue till now has been that batteries cost too much, making electric trucks too expensive.  The range of the Kenworth tucks is still a bit light, but for local deliveries)as opposed to interstate trucking) 160  or 320 km is enough.  They can if necessary be charged at fast chargers and overnight in the dépôt.