No, the EV market is not collapsing, but battery prices are

Land transport emits ~20% of global CO2 emissions.  By 2040, most of the global land transport fleet will be electric.   Good news.

 From The Driven

[T]he claimed collapse of the EV market is not actually a thing. Yes, sales have fallen in some markets, such as Italy, Japan and Germany – the homes of some of the world’s most notable car brands – but they are gaining in most other countries, even including the US, which has grown 3 per cent in the first quarter, year on year.

Spectacular growth is being witnessed in the huge China and India markets, and France and the UK are also doing well.

“EV sales are headed for another record year,” says one of the lead authors, Colin McKerracher.

“Despite the headlines to the contrary, global EV sales continue to grow and are set to rise about 20 per cent this year. Combustion vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and have no real route back to that peak.”

Another interesting part of the market is the commercial vehicle market, and the heavy vehicle market.

“Electrification of commercial vehicles is a bright spot, with just under a million sales expected this year,” McKerracher says. “Other areas like two/three wheelers and buses have already achieved high levels of EV adoption.”

BNEFs outlook is for continued strong growth, with 20 per cent of light truck sales to be fully electric in 2027, 9 per cent of medium and heavy duty truck sales and 52 per cent of bus sales. Not that you would notice in Australia.

BNEF predicts heavy duty trucks sales will be 18 per cent electric by 2030, and 43 per cent by 2040.

“Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030,” it says.

“In heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles initially. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains. ”

One of the big reasons is the falling costs of battery storage, and the fact that are going to continue to fall.

“Battery prices in China are plummeting,” McKerracher says. “Year-to-date cell prices for LFP cells in China are $US53/kWh (which is down from the 2023 global average price of $US95/kWh). Overcapacity and low raw material prices are a factor, but processes and technology are also still improving.

“We’re nowhere near the end of how good this technology can get.”