Meet the biggest heat pumps in the world

 

MVV Energie is building the world's most powerful heat pump systems

From the BBC

The pipe that will supply the heat pump, drawing water from the River Rhine in Germany, is so big that you could walk through it, fully upright, I'm told.

"We plan to take 10,000 litres per second," says Felix Hack, project manager at MVV Environment, an energy company, as he describes the 2m diameter pipes that will suck up river water in Mannheim, and then return it once heat from the water has been harvested.

In October, parent firm MVV Energie announced its plan to build what could be the most powerful heat pump modules ever. Two units, each with a capacity of 82.5 megawatts.

That's enough to supply around 40,000 homes, in total, via a district heating system. MVV Energie aims to build the system on the site of a coal power plant that is converting to cleaner technologies.

The scale of the heat pumps was determined partly by limits on the size of machinery that could be transported through the streets of Mannheim, or potentially via barges along the Rhine. "We're not sure about that yet," says Mr Hack. "It might come via the river."

One person well aware of the project is Alexandre de Rougemont, at Everllence (formerly MAN Energy Solutions), another German company that also makes extremely large heat pumps. "It is a competition, yeah," he says. "We're open about it."

Heat pumps soak up heat from the air, ground or, in these cases, bodies of water. Refrigerants inside the heat pumps evaporate when they are warmed even slightly.

By compressing the refrigerant, you boost that heat further. This same process occurs in heat pumps designed to supply single homes, it just happens on a much larger scale in giant heat pumps that serve entire city districts.

As towns and cities around the world seek to decarbonise, many are deciding to purchase large heat pumps, which can attach to district heating networks.

These networks allow hot water or steam to reach multiple buildings, all connected up with many kilometres of pipe. Ever bigger models of heat pump are emerging to meet demand.

"There was a lot of pressure on us to change the heat generation to new sources, especially renewable sources," explains Mr Hack as he discusses the decommissioning of coal-fired units at the Mannheim plant. The site is right by the Rhine, already has a hefty electricity grid connection, and is plugged in to the district heating network, so it makes sense to install the heat pumps here, he says.

He notes that the technology is possible partly thanks to the availability of very large compressors in the oil and gas industry – where they are used to compress fossil fuels for storage or transportation, for example.

Work on the Mannheim project is due to start next year. The heat pumps – with a combined capacity of 162MW – are set to become fully operational in the winter of 2028-29. Mr Hack adds that a multi-step filter system will prevent the heat pumps sucking up fish from the river, and that modelling suggests the system will affect the average temperature of the river by less than 0.1C.

Installations such as this are not cheap. The Mannheim heat pump setup will cost €200m ($235m; £176m). Mr de Rougemont at Everllence says that, at his company, heat-pump equipment costs roughly €500,000 per megawatt of installed capacity – this does not include the additional cost of buildings, associated infrastructure and so on.

Everllence is currently working on a project in Aalborg, Denmark that will be even more powerful than the system in Mannheim, with a total capacity of 176MW. It will use smaller modules, however – four 44MW units – and is due to become operational in 2027, when it will supply nearly one third of all heating demand in the town.

Those 44MW machines are actually the same ones used in a previous project, now fully operational, to the south of Aalborg in Esbjerg. There, they don't run at maximum capacity but rather supply 35MW each.

Large hot water storage tanks, each able to hold 200,000 cubic metres of liquid, will give the system added flexibility, adds Mr de Rougemont: "When the electricity price is high, you stop your heat pump and only provide heat from the storage."

Veronika Wilk at the Austrian Institute of Technology says, "Heat pumps and district heating systems are a great fit." Such systems can harvest heat from bodies of water or even wastewater from sewage treatment plants.

Dr Wilk notes that, when you use multiple large heat pumps on a district heating network, you gain flexibility and efficiency. You could run two out of four heat pumps in the autumn, say, when less heat is required than during the depths of winter.

All the systems mentioned so far harvest energy from water sources but, less commonly, very large heat pumps can use the air as a heat source, too. Even in a relatively cold city such as Helsinki.

"The sea in front of Helsinki is too shallow," explains Timo Aaltonen, senior vice president of heating and cooling at Helen Oy, an energy firm. "We calculated that we would need to build a tunnel more than 20km long to the ocean, to get enough water [with a] temperature high enough."

Helsinki is in the process of radically overhauling its district heating system. The city has added heat pumps, biomass burners and electric boilers to a 1,400km network that links up nearly 90% of buildings in the Finnish capital, adds Mr Aaltonen.

Heat pumps convert single kilowatt hours of electricity into multiple kilowatt hours of heat but electric boilers can't do this and are therefore considered less efficient.

I ask why Helen Oy decided to install hundreds of megawatts of these boilers and Mr Aaltonen says that they are cheaper to install than heat pumps and having them also means he and colleagues don't have to rely entirely on the air, which is limited in terms of how much heat it can provide at scale. Plus, the electric boilers can help to soak up surplus renewables and provide an electricity grid-balancing function, he says.

EVs/PHEVs 31% of German car sales

 From CleanTechnica

September saw plugin EVs at 31.1% share in Germany, up from 23.7% share year-on-year. BEV volume increased by 32% YoY, while PHEVs grew 85%. Overall auto volume was 235,528 units, up some 13% YoY. September’s best-selling BEV was the Volkswagen ID.3.

Since 2024 was a low baseline, let’s look at the YTD progress vs. both 2024 and 2023. Combined plugins are now at 28.4% YTD, with 18.2% BEV and 10.3% PHEV. 2024’s respective figures were 19.3%, with 13.1% BEV and 6.3% PHEV. 2023’s respective figures were 23.9% with 18.1% BEV and 5.8% PHEV.

So although 2025 is looking much better than 2024, with a 9.1% additional share of the market going to plugins, it is only marginally better than the same period in 2023. All of that marginal improvement is down to the growth of PHEVs over the two intervening years.

What’s also different since 2023 is the lack of BEV incentives now (after being cancelled in December of that year). In short, the transition has recovered from that trauma and is now advancing under its own steam (a more robust path than relying on incentives) – and is less vulnerable to future setbacks.

PHEVs are back to a share they last saw in 2021 and 2022, but the difference this time around is that the new generation of PHEVs have an electric range of over 80 km in most cases (vs. mostly under 50 km previously). This generation is thus more likely to contribute to “mostly electric km” of the overall vehicle fleet during their 15+ year lifespan. As Germany’s transition continues over the next couple of years, PHEVs will plateau and then fade away, as they did in Norway.

EV subsidies ended at the end of 2022, hence December 22 spike.

Germany's China shock

 From Noah Barkin

Germany’s China shock summed up in one graph rhg.com/research/win...

Utility-scale solar now the cheapest electricity in Germany

From Clean Energy Wire

Electricity from large ground-mounted solar PV systems combined with batteries has become cheaper than that generated from fossil power sources in Germany, researchers from the country’s Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) have found. “Photovoltaic systems now produce electricity much more cheaply than coal or gas-fired power plants, even in combination with battery storage systems,” the institute said. Following an analysis of the so-called levelized cost of electricity, a measure of the average cost of electricity generation over a technology’s lifetime, the researchers said the costs of ground-mounted PV systems with battery storage ranged between 6.0 and 10.8 cents per kilowatt-hour (ct/kWh), assuming battery investment costs between 400 and 600 euros/kWh.

"These calculations show that the large-scale projects currently being launched in Germany with a combination of ground-mounted PV systems, wind farms and stationary battery storage systems are good investments," said study author Christoph Kost. He added this combination also allowed a better utilisation of grid capacities. The report said that ground-mounted solar power systems and onshore wind turbines are the most cost-effective technologies in Germany among all types of power plants, with costs of 4.1 to 9.2 ct/kWh.

The researchers forecast that the costs of renewable electricity will continue to fall over the coming two decades. “New wind turbines built in 2045 could produce electricity onshore at a cost of between 3.7 and 7.9 ct/kWh. Offshore wind turbines also have strong cost reduction potential,” the institute said, adding that a higher number of full-load hours and larger turbines will be the most important factors for cost declines. According to the report, electricity from power plants running on renewable hydrogen, which Germany plans to use as a back-up for an electricity system dominated by renewables, will be much more expensive, costing between 23.6 - 43.3 ct/kWh in highly flexible operation. "We need them as an important supplement. However, their operation will be limited to the bare minimum," said Paul Müller, also a scientist at the institute, who added that 1,000 to 2,000 operating hours in 2045 were realistic.

Source: Fraunhofer Institute
Dach = roof, klein = small
PV frei means utility-scale solar
Braunkohle = brown coal (lignite)
GuD= gas und dampf, i.e., CCGT
Kernkraft - nuclear power (new-build)
10 Euro cents/MWh = US$107/MWh

German inflation stubbornly high

 Inflation in Germany (Europe's largest economy) just isn't going down.  The ECB will prolly raise rates again, even though there is a risk that previous rate rises have already primed the economy for a recession.

Source: Trading Economics

Coal's executioners gather

German ski slope, January 2022

From The Age

The savage winter heat in Europe over recent days has been so surreal that observers are running out of words to describe what they are seeing. Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist who tracks global weather extremes, told The Washington Post that the weather was “totally insane” and “absolute madness”. The heatwave was, he said, “the most extreme event ever seen in European climatology”.

In Poland, on New Year’s Day, the temperature peaked at almost 19 degrees, 15 above average. In parts of the continent winter temperatures at night were more typical of summer days.

About the same time, a cold snap caused by a polar vortex gripped North America, killing directly and indirectly more than 200 people.

In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that the La Nina weather pattern that has caused both horrific flooding and cooler temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere is showing signs of dissipating. With this climatological Band-Aid torn away, there are fears the fierce heat La Nina’s clouds has protected us from over the past couple of years will suddenly return, exposing us to the true temperatures of a warmer world.

All this comes as Russia’s war of aggression drags towards its second year, causing not just untold misery for millions Ukrainians but a global energy crisis that has propped up demand for dangerous fossil fuels and super profits for the companies that peddle them.

In this context, it is difficult to address positive news on climate action, but it is there and it is worth addressing. According to the International Energy Agency’s most recent report on coal, published last month, the rise in coal demand prompted by the energy crunch was limited to just 1.2 per cent, and it is not expected to last long.

And despite that war-related jump, the global seaborne coal trade in 2022 is likely to have been between 5 and 8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. Europe’s overwhelming response to the energy crunch has been to buy gas whereever it can find it and to pump eye-bleeding sums of money into energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technology.

Coal’s new high price might be creating short-term profits, but it is also destroying demand.

As a result, the sprawling coalition of government and activist forces dedicated to killing off coal now believes the first phase is already achieved – the pipeline of new coal power stations has effectively been shut.

Countries such as China an India are still building plants permitted and contracted over the past decade, but are rapidly turning towards renewables. At the end of 2021, the coal industry’s key financiers – China, Japan and South Korea – declared they would no longer invest in new offshore coal plants.

As an Australian miner complained in a parliamentary inquiry last year, banks no longer wanted to finance coal projects because the “grief to income ratio” was not worth it. Activist shareholders were becoming too much of a pain.

Camilla Fenning, who leads the coal program for the British-based climate think tank E3G, told me this week the speed of the retreat from coal over the past couple of years has been startling.

“There are now only around 35 countries that have a coal pipeline [of planned new plants],” Fenning said. “None of those are now in Europe, and only four are in the OECD – that’s Turkey, Australia, the US and Japan. Of those 35 countries, something like 16 only have one planned new coal plant, so even they are near the tipping point of no new coal.

“And also, of those 35, probably half of them were dependent on China or Japan or Korean investment, and now they have pulled the plug, it’s pretty unlikely they will get the investment to build. So now we have a domino effect.”

And with coal costs so high, even China’s new plants are running far below capacity.

The problem is that a new coal plant lasts for about 40 years. So even with the pipeline of new plants cut to a trickle, if the existing global fleet is allowed to live for the course of its natural life, the emissions it creates will blow the world’s limited remaining carbon budget to keep warming under 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees.

So now the anti-coal movement has shifted its attention to how it can most effectively shut them down sooner.

Huge steps were taken in this direction at the last two world climate talks in Glasgow in 2021 and Sharm El-Sheikh in November. In Glasgow, a new model to accelerate the process was finalised and announced.

Under the so-called Just Energy Transition Investment Partnership (or JET IP, as it is now referred to in the jargon-rich world of climate diplomacy) the United States, Britain, Germany, France and the European Union agreed to provide $US8.5 billion ($12.59 billion) in grants and cheap loans as seed money for a fund to purchase and close South Africa’s coal fleet and replace it with renewables.

South Africa is the perfect laboratory for such a program because it has a some of the world’s best access to sun and wind. And because it has, even by a dirty industry’s standards, a particularly dirty coal fleet. As a result, a dollar spent greening South Africa cuts far more carbon than a dollar spent in, say, Europe.

The model is also in keeping with one of the Paris Agreement’s core principles, which recognises that nations have “common but differentiated responsibilities” in tackling climate change.

In simple terms, this means that poor nations agreed to take action if rich ones – which caused the problem in the first place – agreed to pay for it.

In Egypt in November, the JET IP backers and South Africa detailed impressive progress in the plan and now negotiations have begun for similar agreements to accelerate coal retirement in Indonesia and Vietnam. Because each nation has different energy demands and different coal industries, developing the plans is complicated, says energy analyst Tim Buckley.

And care must be taken to ensure the money is well spent. There is no point in buying out a coal plant only to later see it resold, Buckley explains. Nor is there any point in shutting off the power before it is adequately replaced with clean alternatives.

Due to generations of failure to properly address climate change, even this rapid progress is not fast enough, says Fenning. She hopes the South African model will be improved as versions of it are deployed in Indonesia and Vietnam, and then, hopefully, across the world.

Many climate scientists believe the 1.5 degrees target has already slipped from our grasp, though rapid decarbonisation could see temperatures stabilise and then slowly drop by the end of the century.

Until then, we will face unfeasibly warm winters across Europe, and a return to infernal summers in Australia.

Germany reaches 46% renewables

From Reuters

Germany's power production from renewable energy rose in 2022, but it is still below the threshold needed to reach the target of generating 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030, the Environment Agency said on Monday.

Renewable energy is expected to account for around 46% of German power consumption [in 2022], up from 41% a year earlier, the agency said in its annual report.

Some 256 terrawatt hours (TWh) were generated last year, mainly from wind and solar power, up 9% year-on-year, but still below the target of 269 TWh for the year in order to achieve the goal of around 600 TWh by 2030, the agency added.

"The decisive course for a successful expansion process must be set promptly," Dirk Messner, the agency president, said in a statement.

With the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2045, Berlin raised its renewable energy targets this year and passed several bills to ease restrictions and accelerate the rollout of wind and solar power, declaring the expansion to be of "outstanding public interest".

The need for renewables became ever more urgent with the decline of Russian fossil fuel imports to Europe's biggest economy following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Wind has generated a total of 128 TWh this year, of which 103 TWh came from onshore wind turbines, but the production could not reach its previous peak value of 2020 due to few new wind power installations, the agency said.

Only around 0.8% of land in Germany is currently designated for onshore wind power. Berlin earlier this year drafted a bill setting out a minimum percentage of land in each of the 16 federal states that must be available for wind farms.

Photovoltaic power generation rose 23% in 2022 year-on-year to 61 TWh, the agency said, citing a jump in installations and "very sunny weather".

Warmer weather also contributed to a "significant" drop in energy consumption for heating, along with citizens and companies saving on energy due to the fuel crisis. Heating from environmental heat and near-surface geothermal energy also rose 13% year-on-year.

To reach the target of 600 TWh of renewable electricity by 2030, output will have to grow by a compound rate of 11% per annum.  This is not very far above the 9% increase achieved last year, while the initiatives taken in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have yet to take full effect.  

Solar panels are pictured on a floating photovoltaic power plant on Silbersee (Lake Silver) in Haltern am See, Germany, April 11, 2022. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

Dialogue with a dictator soaked in blood

 You cannot have dialogue with a warmongering criminal dictator.  What's more, Putin has already broken previous agreements not to attack Ukraine.  Why should his word be trusted now?

Germany's progress on energy independence from Russia

 From a Twitter thread by Samuel Ramani

Germany's progress so far on energy divestment from Russia

Coal :Pre-war: 45%     Now: 8%

Oil: Pre-war: 35%      Now: 12%

Gas: Pre-war: 55%      Now: 35%

A note on the coal stat. The Guardian, citing Germany's Economy Ministry, used the 45% figure for pre-war. Germany's permanent representative to the EU citing Der Spiegel says 50% as the pre-war figure

Russia's war in Ukraine will lead to Germany ― and Europe ― moving must more aggressively towards renewables, EVs, and green hydrogen & methane.  It will now become a goal in the developed world to achieve energy independence. 

EU oil embargo would cause deep depression in Russia

 From Markets Insider

Germany's announcement this week that it's ready to stop buying Russian oil makes a sweeping European Union oil embargo much more likely — which would have devastating consequences for Moscow.

"Russia's economy is projected to contract by more than 10% already this year. If an EU embargo happens, it would likely send the economy spiraling into a depression," Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at markets analytics firm Kpler, told Insider. 

Without European buyers, Russia would need to find somewhere to put roughly 2.5 million barrels a day. Unless Moscow can sell that supply quickly or at least find a place to stash it, there's a strong chance Russia will have to slash its oil production dramatically due to its limited storage capacity, he said. 

Russia could use its extensive network of pipelines as storage space, but that wouldn't hold all the excess supply, Smith explained, adding that unsold crude also could be loaded onto tankers and stored offshore.

But such solutions still wouldn't address the hard-to-fill hole in Russia's economy that an EU embargo would create. Oil export revenue to Europe accounted for 11% of Russia's GDP in 2021, far more than the 2.3%-2.6% that gas exports to Europe comprised, according to the Rhodium Group. 

"A dent in export revenue will ultimately result in significant deterioration in the country's economy," Smith said. "It seems the path of least resistance for Russia will be to cut production, which doesn't come without its own consequences."

Putin can't count on China or India. India is already set to import Russian crude at a rate of 600,000 barrels per day as the lure of steep discounts outweigh international pressure to cut off business ties.

In the event of an EU embargo, those purchases could increase, and China could also help absorb some of Russia's oil. Smith estimates the two countries, which largely have avoided condemning Moscow for its war on Ukraine, could take in an additional 1 million barrels per day from Russia. 

In fact, onshore oil inventories in China are 90 million barrels below their peak from late 2020, Smith noted. If Beijing pivots away from current suppliers, it could replenish its stockpile with heavily discounted Russian oil.

But even if China and India increase Russia energy imports, it remains "highly, highly unlikely" they could absorb 100% of the stranded barrels, he added. 

"India typically imports about 4.5 million barrels per day, so it would be very difficult for them to logistically pull in a huge amount of additional crude given it likely has a significant volume of its imports under long-term contracts from the Middle East," Smith said.

He cited other logistical issues, such as getting insurance for new cargoes or finding enough available vessels to accommodate an influx of oil.

Meanwhile, China's demand for energy has dropped under Beijing's zero-Covid policies, and its own oil refineries have dialed back.

It's still possible China could buy more Russian oil and is simply waiting for an EU embargo to kick in so it can take advantage of steeper oil discounts, he said. But either way, Moscow can expect to generate less oil revenue. 

"Every single dollar a country is paying for Russian oil is funding the war [in Ukraine]. By cutting off those revenues, the goal is to ultimately cut off Russia's ability to continue this war," Smith said.

Source: How reliant is the world on Russia for oil and gas?

What do they mean by deep depression? During the 1929-1933 Great Depression, industrial production fell by 46% in the USA, 41% in Germany, and ±24% in France and the UK.  Real GDP fell ±25% in the USA, peak to trough.  In my judgement, a comparable fall in Russian GDP  from the peak before the war started seems perfectly plausible if its oil exports to the developed world are embargoed.  Russia may well introduce a ban on gas sales to Europe, in retaliation.  Europe is much more dependent on Russian gas than Russian oil, and such a ban would cause a downturn in Europe.  I've seen various estimates, ranging from a 2% fall in real GDP  to a 5% decline, if Russian gas is shut off.  

Germany targets 100% renewables by 2035

 From The Energy Mix

Germany’s energy security and climate policies leapt forward in a recently-announced Easter Package that outlines ambitious transition targets as the country struggles to unyoke itself from Russian oil.

In what it calls the “biggest energy policy reform in decades,” Germany’s coalition government proposes to lift the rollout of wind and solar power “to a completely new level” in a draft law that runs more than 500 pages, writes Clean Energy Wire. 

“It aims to free up new land for green power production, speed up permit procedures, and massively increase wind and solar additions to achieve a nearly 100% renewable power supply by 2035.”

The announcement is especially important coming from an “industrial powerhouse” that has stalled on its clean energy transition over the past 10 years. The plan laid out in the Easter Package show that by 2030, Germany aims to more than double its onshore wind capacity to 115 gigawatts, and quadruple its offshore wind and solar generation to 30 and 215 gigawatts, respectively. It also requires power suppliers to reduce energy bills for consumers, and signals that the country will complete its coal phaseout by 2030, reports E3G.

Though the package is targeted for climate action, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine—and Germany’s dependence on Russia for cheap fuel—have compelled the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz to proclaim renewable energies “a matter of national security,” adding a new motivation to rapidly scale up the sector.

The package shows there is “a great will to advance wind energy quickly,” said German Wind Energy President Hermann Albers. The renewable energy industry on the whole has responded positively to the package, but is demanding more action from a second anticipated Summer Package to further support the country’s clean energy targets, Clean Energy Wire reports.  

While the cogs of Germany’s energy policies are turning, the EU is also looking to clean energy as an alternative to Russian oil and gas. Members have agreed “to reduce their net emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030, a step towards net-zero emissions by 2050,” writes the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

“What we will do in the next couple of weeks is work towards what I call the Repower EU initiative, and as part of that we want to accelerate the energy transition. So in that context, we might revisit our targets,” European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans told media during a visit to Cairo.

German public supports immediate Russian oil & gas boycott

 From a Twitter thread by Anders Östlund

What's holding Germany back from cutting its ties to Russia? My speculation is that there are currently four old men who are playing key parts in German Russia policy. Gerhard Schröder, Frank Walter Steinmeier, Sigmar Gabriel and Olaf Scholz.

Germany's position, inaction and obstruction is putting enormous values at stake. The most obvious is Ukrainian lives but also western ideals, European security, global business and, not the least, Germany's own reputation as a western democracy and reliable ally is at stake.

German democracy must be questioned if a small group of old men can control a party, which control the government, that represent the country, that in turn can veto decisions of the European Union while the German citizens at the same time support other policies.

My translation
Heading: "Immediate boycott of Russian Gas and Oil.  Numbers in percent"
Left half of grphic: "Change in percentage points: 50 (+6) yes; 42 (-3 ) No"
Right half: "Party supporters";"would support" on left; "would not support" on right
FDP and AfD are small parties; AfD is a far-right party.

Vultures

 Germany and France pay billions a year to Russia for oil and gas, and then give their widow's mite to Ukraine to support her.   Embargo Russian fossil fuel exports now.

Germany installs 2 GW of onshore wind

 From ReNEWS

Germany installed just shy of 2GW of new onshore wind capacity in 2021, according to figures published by Deutsche WindGuard and VDMA Power Systems.

The 1925MW of capacity built in 2021 comprised 484 turbines, resulting in 35% growth compared with 2020’s installation figure of 1431MW.

VDMA Power Systems managing director Dennis Rendeschmidt said: “The expansion is increasing, but only regionally and overall at too low a pace.

“That is why the concrete measures for accelerated expansion mentioned in the immediate programme by Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck are absolutely necessary.

“Two percent of the land area is required in each federal state as a minimum basis for the expansion of wind energy in Germany.”

For 2022 the associations expect an expansion of 2.3GW to 2.7GW on the basis of an evaluation of projects that have already been awarded and the speed of implementation of tendering systems to date.

They stated: “Regulated processes in the supply chains, simplified and plannable transport permits, the upgrading of the transport infrastructure and the flexible availability of labour are of high relevance in order to achieve higher expansion targets.”

In 2021, Germany installed 5.3 GW of solar.  Its total installed electricity capacity in 2020 was 218 GW, and 50.5% of production was from renewable sources. 

Source: Wikipedia

5.3 GW of new solar installed in Germany

 From reNEWS.

A total output of 5300MW of solar power systems were installed in Germany last year, according to the preliminary results of the German Solar Industry Association (BSW).

New figures show that approximately 240,000 new modules were connected to the grid in 2021, constituting a 10% increase in sales compared to the previous year.

BSW said that around 10% of domestic electricity consumption in Germany is now covered by solar PV systems.

According to the climate protection projects of the Ampel coalition, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is to be tripled in the near future, the renewable energy body added.

The latest BSW industry barometer, a representative survey of over 200 solar entrepreneurs, shows that the government's plans are giving the solar industry a positive outlook into the new year.

However, while the demand for solar power systems in the home sector and for solar parks built at ground level rose sharply in the past year, the newly installed solar capacity on commercial roofs fell significantly in some cases.

BSW said that the monthly lowering of market premiums and an abundance of disproportionate bureaucratic requirements are increasingly dampening the willingness to invest.

The renewable energy body added that fast and courageous political action is now essential and has appealed to the new federal government to implement its immediate climate protection program before Easter.

BSW managing director Carsten Körnig said: “This goal can be achieved if the solar turbo is ignited now and barriers to the energy transition are torn down.

“If acting quickly, the federal government will be able to reap the first fruits of its work during this legislative period, since the planning stages for solar power plants are comparatively short in contrast to other new power plants.”

The new federal government has set itself the goal of expanding the solar power output installed in Germany from currently around 59GW to 200GW by 2030 and using all suitable roof areas for solar energy generation in the future, BSW said. [This target requires annual new capacity to be tripled from the 2021 level]

Source: Clean Energy Wire
Note how little solar in Australia, despite its huge solar influx, compared to Germany, which is much further from the equator.
Note also how much solar capacity there is in China.

German plug-in share reaches record 36%

 From CleanTechnica

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market and the world’s 5th largest, saw plugin electric vehicle share hit a record of 35.7% in December, up from 26.6% year-on-year. Full battery electrics took 21.3% of the market. Overall auto volumes were down to 227,630 units, the lowest December result of recent decades. Seeing significant month-on-month growth were three of the most affordable electrics, the VW e-up!, Renault Twingo, and Dacia Spring.

December’s record combined plugin result of 35.7% comprised 21.3% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 14.4% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), a weighting roughly consistent with recent months.

2021’s Q4 combined plugin result was 33.7% (with 19.7% BEV and 14.0% PHEV). This was decent year-on-year growth from the Q4 2020 result of 21.7% (with 10.9% BEV and 10.8% PHEV). We can see that BEVs led that growth.

2021’s cumulative full year plugin result was 26.0% (with 13.6% BEV and 12.4% PHEV). This is close to double the full year 2020 plugin share of 13.5% (with 6.7% BEV and 6.8% PHEV). Notice how BEVs more than doubled their share over the 12 months.

Note that hybrids and full PEVs (EVs + PHEVs) made up 51.5 of the total market in December.  

Germany's stunning new EV targets

 From The Driven

The newly formed governing coalition in Germany – dubbed the “traffic light” coalition has unveiled a stunning new target for electric vehicles that will require around two-thirds of all new vehicle sales to be fully electric over the next eight years.

After more than 10 weeks of negotiations, the left-leaning SDP (Social Democrats), the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) announced a deal to share government, with the focus on ambitious climate and energy policies, including transport.

As we report on our sister site RenewEconomy, the headline decisions include fast-tracking the exit of coal from the grid to 2030 from 2038, and boosting the renewable energy share by 2030 to 80 per cent from 65 per cent.

In transport, the new government to be led by the SDP’s Olaf Sholz, will aim to make Germany a leader in the market for e-mobility, and aim for a minimum 15 million fully electric passenger cars on German roads in 2030.

Germany currently has around one million electric vehicles on the road, and total vehicle sales of around three million a year. So to reach that target of 15 million, another 14 million EVs need to be sold in the next eight years, or nearly two million a year.

That compares with sales to date in 2021 of just over 300,000. One in every three cars sold in October was electric, partly due to supply shortages and production delays elsewhere, but this share will have to double in quick time.

It will not be as difficult a task as The Driven is making out.  Just taking sales from 2008 to 2021, the compound growth rate is ~50% per annum.  Yet sales have done even better over the last year, more than doubling so far this year, and we don't even have data for November or December when EV sales are usually strong.  At 50% compound growth, EV sales will reach  464K in 2022, 695K in 2023, 1043K in 2024, 1565K in 2025, and 2347K in 2026, or 80% of the total market.  But if sales double again in 2022 and 2023, they'll reach 618K in 2022 and 1236K in 2023, just under half the market.  In October this year, EVs were already 1/3rd of total sales.

This is how an S-curve adoption curve works.  Look at the chart.  It starts off very, very slowly, and all the sceptics say it will never work.  'EVs will never be a thing,' they said.  Even 5 years ago, EV sales were still just 1% of the market.   They're now 30%.  They will reach 100% of the market long before 2035 or 2040, the dates that cautious forecasters, who extend lines linearly instead of exponentially, have been forecasting.  Germany will reach 100% EV sales by 2025.   And where Germany goes, Europe will follow. 

Germany: plug-ins 29% of car sales

 From CleanTechnica

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicle market share of 28.7% in September 2021, up almost 2x year-on-year. Full electrics alone took 17.1% of the market, overtaking diesel’s share (15.9%) for the first time. The overall auto market, at 196,972 units, was down around 20% from the same month in 2019 (pre-COVID). VW Group strongly dominated EV sales.

August’s combined plugin result of 28.7% comprised 17.1% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 11.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). This is a continuing shift toward BEVs from recent months. PHEVs have been flat over the past 10 months, staying consistently close to 12% share, whilst BEVs have been climbing. In September 2020, BEVs took 8% of the market, so have more than doubled their share over the intervening 12 months.

Germany’s 2021 cumulative plugin share now stands at 23.7%, over double the 10.0% of a year ago. BEVs’ record 17.1% share put them ahead of diesels for the first time in the modern era, with the latter only taking 15.9% of the market (from 25.6% a year ago).

Petrols’ share has remained stubbornly flat over the past 10 months, fluctuating around 36% to 39% share. This will change in December, when plugins will have their seasonal blowout peak.

The transition is now accelerating in earnest in Germany. Historically, September is exceeded further by the final months of the year, and this year will likely follow on trend.

With September already at 28.7%, I would estimate that all Q4 months will be above 30%, and December will almost certainly be above 40%, with 25-30% of that total being BEVs.

If you add in hybrids, i.e, cars with an electric engine but without a plug, nearly 50% of car sales in September were electric or semi-electric.  Assuming cars last 15 years, I estimate that demand for petrol and diesel in Germany will already be falling by 2.5% per annum.  As the percentage of electrics and semi-electrics in total car sales rises, this will increase to 6% per annum.  As Germany (and the EU) are also switching away from coal, their total emissions will be falling by 4 or 5% per annum, right on target for a 5% cut by 2035.  This is wonderful news.

Germany plug-in car sales more than tripled in June

EV and PHEV sales in Germany are up more than three-fold year-on-year.  They are 23% of the total market, which is way past the 5% tipping point.  It's very hard to see any future for petrol/diesel cars.   And those who think it'll take until 2040 for EVs to dominate car sales are in my opinion completely wrong--2025 looks far more likely.

From InsideEVs

In June, new passenger car registrations in Germany increased almost 25% year-over-year to 274,152, but it's still far from over 325,000 two years ago.

On the positive side, passenger plug-in car registrations increased 243% year-over-year to almost 65,000 (the second-best result ever), which represents 23.6% of the entire market.

This time, all-electric car sales not only sold at a slightly higher volume but also expanded quicker year-over-year than plug-in hybrids.

Results by type:

• BEVs: 33,420 – up 312% at 12.2% market share
• PHEVs: 31,314 – up 191% at 11.4% market share
• Total: 64,734 – up 243% at 23.6% market share

So far this year, more than 312,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Germany, which is 233% more than a year ago. It's the largest plug-in market in Europe.

New registrations year-to-date:

• BEVs: 148,716 – up 236% at 10.7% market share
• PHEVs: 163,571 – up 230% at 11.8% market share
• Total: 312,287 – up 233% at 22.5% market share

Germany plug-in share heading for 30%

 From CleanTechnica

Europe’s biggest auto market, Germany, saw plugin electric vehicle share hit 23.4% in May, up over 3× from 7.3% in May 2020. Summer always brings a further boost, so from now on, 25% and above is inevitable. The overall auto market saw a volume of 231,000, still significantly down from pre-Covid 2019’s ~340,000.  The 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.2%, up dramatically from the 7.6% at this point in 2020.

For many years in Germany, June, July and August have consistently seen a significant step up in plugin share compared to May and earlier months. I’d therefore estimate that May, or at latest June, will be the last time in Germany that we see under 25% plugin market share.

On this current trajectory, the final months of the year should comfortably reach into the 30+% share and December may hit 40% or higher. The full year cumulative result should stand at around 30% (it’s already above 22%).

Just as a reminder, 2020’s cumulative result in Germany was 13.5% and 2019’s was 3.0%. That’s a massive acceleration of EV adoption in the world’s 4th largest auto market, over the course of just a couple of years, and it’s not going to slow down as BEVs get ever more affordable and even more compelling.

The unobservant consultants and forecasters who are still saying it will be ~2040 before EVs take half the global auto market need to wake up and pay attention to events on the ground.

[Read more here]