From YouGov America
NEW Economist/YouGov Over the past three weeks, Donald Trump has averaged a -25 net job approval, a record-low three-week average for either Trump term yougov.com/en-us/articl...
Why doesn't Trump care? One, he's senile. Or two, they are plans underway to prevent the midterm elections in November.
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| The capital of Scotland, Edinburgh |
Scotland's elections are conducted using a very clever combination of first past the post and proportional representation.
From Bylines Scotland
Ultimately, the outcome of any democratic election depends on how voters decide to cast their ballot. However, the impact of their choice also depends on how their votes are treated by the electoral system. That is likely to prove particularly the case in the Scottish Parliament election in May.
As at previous devolved [Scotland only] elections, the battle for Holyrood [the Scottish Parliament] will be conducted using a variant of the ‘Additional Member System’. It comes in two parts. Of the 129 MSPs to be elected, well over half will be chosen using first-past-the-post. In 73 separate constituencies, voters will be able to cast a vote for their local MSP. Whichever candidate secures most votes in each seat is elected. At previous Holyrood contests, the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the SNP have put up a candidate in every constituency, whereas the Greens have only contested a handful. It remains to be seen how many constituencies Reform will decide to fight.
The remaining 56 seats are elected using a system of proportional representation. For this purpose, Scotland is divided into eight regions, each of which elects seven ‘additional’ members. Each party puts forward a list of candidates in rank order. Voters are invited to vote for one of these regional party lists – they can vote for the party whose candidate they have backed as their local constituency MSP or for a different party. Crucially, the seven additional members are allocated to the parties such that the overall tally of seats in a region – both constituency and list – is as proportional as possible to the share of the list vote cast for each party in that region.
The constituency race
Polls taken towards the end of 2025 put the SNP, on average, at 34% on the constituency ballot, well down from the 48% the party secured at the last Holyrood election in 2021. Nevertheless, the SNP were still well ahead of its nearest rivals, that is, Reform on 20% and Labour on 16%. Trailing further behind were the Conservatives with 10% and the Liberal Democrats with 9%, while the Greens (who again may not contest many constituencies) were on 8%.
Support for the SNP does not vary a great deal from one part of Scotland to another. Given the size of its Scotland-wide lead, on these figures the party is therefore likely to be ahead in most constituencies. Consequently, despite the fall in its support, the SNP might well retain all but a handful of the 62 constituency seats the party won in 2021. In that event, the outcome of the constituency contests would be highly disproportional. The party will likely have won three-quarters to four-fifths of the constituency seats on little more than a third of the vote.
A barrier for Reform and the Greens?
On the evidence of last year’s Westminster election, support for Reform could also be quite evenly spread across Scotland. But whereas first-past-the-post is generous to a party with an evenly spread vote that is well in the lead (because it comes first in most constituencies), it punishes a second (or third) placed party whose share of the vote is much the same everywhere (because it comes second or third almost everywhere). As a result, Reform might fail to win a single constituency seat – along with the Greens. In contrast, the other opposition parties – the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats – all have local fiefdoms that should ensure they all at least win some constituency seats.
Reform is thus likely to be especially dependent on winning regional party list seats. At 19%, their level of support on the list vote in recent polls has been similar to their 20% support on the constituency ballot. Much the same is true of Labour (16%), the Conservatives (12%), and the Liberal Democrats (9%). But, at 29%, support for the SNP on the list vote has been markedly lower, not least because those who say they would back the SNP on the constituency vote are especially likely to say they would support the Greens on the list vote. Indeed, at 12%, support for the Greens has been both four points higher than on the constituency ballot and four points up on what the party won in 2021.
Compensation on the list?
Consequently, as at previous Holyrood elections, the Greens will be dependent on the allocation of list seats. But this time around, the single biggest beneficiary could prove to be Nigel Farage’s party. Indeed, if Reform does emerge as the second most popular in list votes, it could win sufficient list seats to become the second largest party and thus the official opposition at Holyrood.
However, under these circumstances the allocation of list seats will not correct fully the over-representation secured by the SNP in the constituency contests. The party’s likely success in those would mean that, despite not being awarded a single list seat, the nationalists will have 45% or so of the seats in the chamber, well above the party’s 29% share of the list vote. There are simply too few party list seats to reverse the SNP’s likely over-representation on the constituency ballot.
One election in two different parts
Between them, then, the two parts of Holyrood’s electoral system are likely to have a significant impact on the shape of the next Holyrood chamber. The outcome of the first-past-the-post contests could well ensure that, despite being far less popular than five years ago, the SNP remain the dominant force in the parliament. Yet at the same time, by ensuring both the Greens and Reform secure representation they might otherwise lack, the allocation of party list seats could still prove crucial. The Greens could do well enough to ensure that, together with the SNP, there is once again a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
Meanwhile, the list part of the system opens up the possibility that Reform could become the second largest party in seats should they manage to emerge as the second largest party in votes. All of which could leave the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats at risk of all looking a little bit like ‘also rans’.
From The Hartmann Report
Young people are furious. A survey released this week by the Harvard Institute of Politics finds that under-30 Americans are “a generation under profound strain” who’ve lost pretty much any confidence in government or corporate institutions.
By a 57% to 13% margin they told pollsters America is on the wrong track, and only 32% agree that the US is a healthy democracy or even one that’s “somewhat functioning.”
Fully 64% of young American adults say the system is either in trouble or has completely failed. Pollster John Della Volpe summarized the Institute’s findings:
“Young Americans are sending a clear message: the systems and institutions meant to support them no longer feel stable, fair, or responsive to this generation.”
Which raises the urgent question: How the hell did we get here from the widespread prosperity of the postwar years?
The 1970s were a pivotal decade, and not just because they saw the end of the Vietnam War, the resignation of Nixon, and the death of both the psychedelic hippie movement and the very political (and sometimes violent) SDS, which I had joined. Most consequentially, the 1970s were when the modern-day Republican Party was birthed.
Prior to that, the nation had hummed along for 40 years on a top income tax bracket of 91% and a corporate income tax that topped out around 50%. Business leaders focused on running their companies, which were growing faster than at any time in the history of America, and avoided participating in politics.
Democrat Franklin Roosevelt and Republican Dwight Eisenhower renewed America with:
— modern, state-of-the-art public labs, schools, and public hospitals across the nation;
— nearly free college, trade school, and research support;
— enforcement of antitrust laws which produced healthy small and family businesses;
— unions protecting a third of America’s workers so fully two-thirds of us had a living wage and benefits on a single salary;
— and an interstate highway system, rail system, and network of new airports paid for with tax dollars that transformed the nation’s commerce.When we handed America over to Ronald Reagan in 1981 it was a brand, gleaming new country with a prosperous and thriving middle class. Young people saw a lifetime of opportunity ahead of them, and wealthy people were doing well, too.
The seeds of today’s American crisis were planted just ten years earlier, in 1971, when Lewis Powell, then a lawyer for the tobacco industry, wrote his infamous “Powell Memo.” It was a blueprint for the morbidly rich and big corporations to take over the weakened remnants of Nixon’s Republican Party and then seize control of the institutions of America.
Those groups, inspired by Powell, decided to take his advice and infiltrate our universities, create a massive, billion-dollar conservative media infrastructure, pack our courts, integrate themselves into a large religious movement to collect millions of votes, and turn upside-down our tax, labor, abortion, and gun laws.
That effort burst onto the American scene with the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan.
By 1982 America was agog at the “new ideas” this newly-invented, billionaire-owned GOP was putting forward. They included radical tax cuts for the rich, pollution deregulation, destroying unions, ending Roe v. Wade, and slashing the support services the New Deal and Great Society once offered citizens (because, Republicans said, feeding, educating, or providing healthcare to people made them “dependent on the government”).
Their sales pitch was effective, so we’ve now had 44 years of Republicans’ so-called Reagan Revolution.
It’s time to simply say out loud — as our young people are yelling at us — that it hasn’t worked. For example:
— Republicans told us if we just cut the top income tax rate on the morbidly rich from the 74% it was in 1980 down to 37% it would “trickle down” benefits to everybody else because, they said, the “job creators” would be “unleashed” on our economy.
Instead of a more general prosperity, we’ve now ended up with the greatest wealth and income inequality in the developed world, as over $50 trillion was transferred over those 44 years from the bottom 90% to the top 1%, where it remains to this day. The middle class has gone from over 65% of us to fewer than half of us. Because of 44 years of Reaganomics, it now takes 2 full-time wage earners to sustain the same lifestyle one could in 1980.
— Republicans told us if we just deregulated guns and let anybody buy and carry as many as they wanted, wherever they wanted, it would clean up our crime problem and put the fear of God into our politicians.
“An armed society is a polite society” was the bumper sticker back during Reagan’s time, the NRA relentlessly promoting the lie that the Founders and Framers put the Second Amendment into the Constitution so “patriots” could kill corrupt politicians. Five on-the-take Republicans on the Supreme Court even got into the act by twisting the law and lying about American history to make guns more widely available.
Instead of a “polite” society or politicians who listened better to their constituents, we ended up with school shootings and a daily rate of gun carnage unmatched anywhere else in the developed world. We regularly terrorize young people with active shooter drills; the number-one cause of death for American children (and only American children) is bullets tearing their bodies apart.
— Republicans told us that if we just ended sex education in our schools, purged our libraries of books, and outlawed abortion, we’d return to “the good old days” when, they argued, every child was wanted and every marriage was happy.
Instead of helping young Americans, we’ve ended up with epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases, unwanted pregnancies, and — now that abortion is illegal in state after state — a return to deadly back-alley abortions.
— Republicans told us that if we just killed off Civics and History classes in our schools, we’d “liberate” our young people to focus on science and math.
Instead, we’ve raised two generations of Americans who can’t even name the three branches of government, much less understand the meaning of the Constitution’s reference to the “General Welfare.” And forget about trying to explain to them the difference between Hitler’s fascism, Stalin’s communism, and the modern-day governments of Russia, Hungary, and China. Or what Trump and his cronies are up to.
— Republicans told us that if we cut state and federal aid to higher education — which in 1980 paid for about 80% of a student’s tuition — so that students would have “skin in the game,” we’d see students take their studies more seriously and produce a new generation of engineers and scientists to prepare us for the 21st century.
Instead of happy students, since we cut that 80% government support down to around 20% (with the 80% now covered by students’ tuition), our nation is groaning under a $2 trillion dollar student debt burden, preventing young people from buying homes, starting businesses, or beginning families.
While students are underwater, the banksters who own Republican politicians are making billions in profits every single week of the year from these bizarrely non-negotiable student loans, the consequence of legally paid-off legislators (because of Clarence Thomas‘s tie-breaking vote in Citizens United).
— Republicans told us that if we just stopped enforcing the anti-monopoly and anti-trust laws that had protected small businesses for nearly 100 years, there would be an explosion of innovation and opportunity as companies got bigger and thus “more efficient.”
Instead, we’ve seen every industry in America become so consolidated that competition is dead, inflation-causing price gouging and profiteering reign, and it’s hard to find small family-owned businesses anymore in downtowns, malls, and the suburbs. It’s all giant chains, many being sucked dry by hedge funds or private equity as we enter the cancer stage of capitalism. Few family or local businesses can compete against such giants and the door to entrepreneurialism is largely closed to Zoomers.
— Republicans told us that if we just changed the laws to let corporations pay their senior executives with stock (in addition to cash) they’d be “more invested” in the fate and future of the company and business would generally become healthier.
Stock buybacks used to be called felony stock manipulation, but Reagan legalized the practice in 1983. As a result, every time a corporation initiates a stock buyback program, billions of dollars flow directly into the pockets of the main shareholders and executives while workers, the company, communities, and even the businesses themselves suffer the loss.
— Republicans told us that if we just let a handful of individual companies and billionaires buy most of our media, a thousand flowers would grow and we’d have the most diverse media landscape in the world. At first, as the internet was opening in the 90s, they even giddily claimed it was happening.
Now a small handful of billionaires and often-rightwing companies own our major media/internet companies, radio and TV stations, as well as local newspapers across the country. In such a landscape, progressive voices, as young people will tell you, are generally absent.
— Republicans told us we should hand all our healthcare decisions not to our doctors but to bureaucratic insurance industry middlemen who would decide which of our doctor’s suggestions they’d approve for payment and which they’d reject. They said this “pre-approval” process would “lower costs and increase choice.”
Instead, in all of the entire developed world — all the 34 OECD countries on 4 continents — there are ~500,000 medical bankruptcies a year…and every single one of them is here in America. And now, as Republicans fight to prevent the renewal of Obamacare subsidies, millions — particularly young people working low-wage jobs — will simply be forced to drop health insurance altogether.
— Republicans told us if we just got rid of our unions, then our bosses and the companies that employ them would give us better pay, more benefits, and real job security.
As everybody can see, they lied. And are still lying as hard as they can to prevent America from returning to the levels of unionization (around a third of us) we had before Reagan’s Great Republican Experiment (now only a tenth of us have a union).
— Republicans told us if we went with the trade agreement the GHW Bush administration had negotiated — NAFTA — and then signed off on the WTO, that we’d see an explosion of jobs.
There was an explosion all right; lots of them, in fact, as over 60,000 American factories were blown up, torn down, or left vacant because their production was moved to China or elsewhere. Over 15 million good-paying union jobs went overseas along with those 60,000 factories.
— Republicans told us global warming was a hoax: they’re still telling us that, in fact. And therefore, they say, we shouldn’t do anything to interfere with the profits of their wealthy donors in the American fossil fuel industry and the Middle East.
The hoax, it turns out, was the lie that there was no global warming, a lie that the industry spent hundreds of millions over decades to pull off. By purchasing the GOP, they succeeded in delaying action on global warming for at least three decades and maybe as many as five. That lie produced trillions in profits and brought us the climate crisis that is today killing millions and threatens all life on Earth.
— And then, of course, there’s the biggest GOP lie of them all: “Money is the same thing as Free Speech and corporations are persons with rights under the Bill of Rights.” Five corrupt Republicans on the Supreme Court told us that if we threw out around 1000 anti-corruption and anti-bribery laws at both the state and federal level so politicians and political PACs could take unaccountable billions, even from foreign powers, it would “strengthen and diversify” the range of voices heard in America.
It’s diversified it, for sure. We’re now regularly hearing from racists and open Nazis, many of them elected Republican officials, who would have been driven out of decent society before the Reagan Revolution. American political discourse hasn’t been this filled with conflict and violence since the Civil War, and much of it can be traced straight back to the power and influence of dark money unleashed by those five billionaire-bought-off Republicans on the Supreme Court.
— So now Donald Trump tells our young people that it’s time to make take the next big step — to reject democracy — as the logical outcome of the Reagan Revolution.
He says if we just abandon the rule of law and make him an uncountable emperor for life; punish with prison his political enemies; make women, Blacks, and Hispanics second-class citizens; end immigration for everybody except white South Africans; and forge alliances with dictators around the world, that life in America will become wonderful.
It should shock no one that young people aren’t buying this GOP bullshit.
The bottom line is that we as a nation have now had the full Republican experience. We’ve done pretty much everything they suggested or demanded.
And as a result, young Americans are increasingly disgusted when they hear Republicans sermonizing about deficits (that they themselves caused).
Or welfare (that the GOP damaged and then exploited).
Or even whatever these sanctimonious Republicans are calling “faith” these days, be it the death penalty, forcing raped women and pre-teen girls to give birth against the threat of imprisonment, hiding Trump’s association with Epstein and Maxwell, or burning books.
Or having masked secret police kidnap people, including children, off the streets of our cities and throwing them into god-awful hellhole prisons.
Not to mention Donald Trump’s sinister “revenge” campaign against the Americans he sees as his “enemies,” his eliminating pollution controls that protected our environment in exchange for a billion dollars in fossil fuel industry donations, and giving his billionaire donors another massive tax cut, to be paid for by the same next generation who’re protesting against him.
America’s young people are over it, Republicans, and they’re going to reboot this nation to fulfill its potential and promise.
A new, progressive America is being birthed from the ashes of the Reagan Revolution and the GOP and its billionaire owners can’t stop it much longer.
The Hartmann Report is required reading, if you want to keep up with the explosion of fascism in America. You can subscribe to it here.
