Regional Fed surveys fall in january

The PMI "flash" estimate for January rose, but the average of the Philadelphia Fed, Empire State, Richmond Fed, Kansas Fed and Dallas Fed surveys spiked down.  Not sure why the one was up and the other down, because they usually move more or less together.  But given the geographical skew of the regional Fed surveys, it was probably due to the weather.  The PMI covers the whole country, but the regional Fed surveys are skewed towards the northeast.   However, I haven't been following the US weather that closely, so I may be wrong.

Fed surveys spike in June

There are 5 regional Fed surveys: the Empire State; The Philly Fed; the Richmond Fed's, the Dallas Fed's and the Kansas Fed's.  Normally, even though these surveys don't cover the whole country, the correlation with the ISM (which does cover the whole country) is close.   In June, the average of the 5 (PERDK) and the ISM went in different directions.  It's happened before, but not that often.  

Was it the bottom of the cycle?  Prolly not, but what do I know?

Just thought I'd give you a heads-up.  😉

Regional Fed surveys fall again in April

 Five of the regional Federal Reserve Offices run surveys of the region they are responsible for.   Unfortunately, neither the Chicago Fed nor the San Francisco Fed run surveys for their regions, though there is a Chicago survey from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM).  Even though the regional Fed surveys don't cover the whole country, the average of the five correlates very well with GDP and the national ISM survey.