Sodium batteries about to crush lithium

CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have 5 advantages over lithium-ion:

1.  Sodium-ion batteries used to have a much lower energy density than lithium-ion: 140 Watt-hours per kilogram vs lithium's +-200 Wh/kg.  CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have an energy density of 175 Wh/kg.  That's a higher energy density than BYD's lithium-ion blade battery, which has an energy density of 160 Wh/kg.  But, here's the point: sodium is about 4.5 times cheaper than lithium, even after lithium's big decline in price over the last two years.
2. Sodium-ion batteries work much better in freezing temperatures, for example, at -20 to -40 degrees C, where lithium-ion batteries lose much of their performance, and even stop working at -40 C and below.
3. They can be very rapidly charged, even at low temperatures.
4. They should last for 10,000 recharge cycles, or about 4.8 million kilometres (3 million miles), vs the very best lithium-ion batteries, with maybe 3.5 million km.
5. Safety: sodium-ion batteries are much less inflammable than lithium-ion, and don't catch alight even if sawed or drilled into.

So, sodium-ion batteries are likely to rapidly replace lithium-ion batteries, with battery costs (my estimate) at least halving, a combined effect of longer life and cheaper materials.   

This has huge implications for EV prices.  Remember, outside the USA, EVs have already reached or are close to price parity.  For example, in Australia, the cheapest BYD Dolphin has price parity with the cheapest all-petrol Toyota Corolla.  CATL's new sodium-ion battery means that EVs will now achieve price parity with even the smallest and cheapest petrol cars, and better than that with all mid-size cars.  Expect EV prices to continue to decline, even as range is increased.

It also has equally big implications for the grid.  Battery storage costs will fall so much that 8 hours of storage will be almost as cheap as 4 hours is today.  And, of course, this is not the end of the decline in battery prices.  The pace of technological and manufacturing advance is breathtaking.  This in turn means that every electricity grid within the sunbelt -- between 40 degrees N and S of the equator -- will find solar irresistibly cheap.  And even grids which are only partially within the sunbelt will be heavily dependent on solar.  Europe, for example, will combine North Sea wind with solar from Spain, Morocco, Italy and Turkey.  This is the end of coal and baseload gas.   High latitude locations will probably continue to need peaking gas, but these new super cheap batteries will outcompete gas peakers everywhere else.

The energy transition will accelerate.  EVs will reach 100% of sales everywhere (except the USA) by 2030 or before.  Oil demand will plunge. Coal power stations will stop being profitable, and will be closed.  Emissions will start to fall.  Air pollution will decline.  Blood-soaked petro-states will lose their influence.

Isn't that excellent?

From The Electric Viking

Renewables soon to overtake coal

From Statista

With hundreds of protesters currently trying to halt the continued development of a coal mine in Germany - which would involve the destruction of the now abandoned village of Lützerath, the further pursuit of fossil fuels in a country ostensibly seeking to phase them out is under the spotlight. The main justification used by the German government is that the country's hand has been forced by the massive gap left by Russian oil and gas. At least in the short to medium term, coal has been selected is one answer to Germany's significant problem.

Longer term, it's renewables that are planned to dominate Germany's electricity mix, and this is something reflected by an International Energy Agency forecast. As this infographic shows, global use of coal for electricity generation outweighed that of renewables by 8 percentage points. By 2027, this is predicted to flip, with renewables accounting for 38 percent of global electricity production compared to 30 percent from coal.

The IEA report, released since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, says that the war has led countries "to increasingly value the energy security benefits of renewable energy." Although some of the shorter term solutions may be focused by necessity on fossil or nuclear sources, the future is looking more green. An additional factor in this ongoing shift quoted in the report were the "high fossil fuel and electricity prices resulting from the global energy crisis" that have "made renewable power technologies much more economically attractive".

My own opinion is that this transition will happen faster than the IEA thinks.  The IEA was founded to support fossil fuels and nuclear and it has consistently underestimated the speed of the transition to renewables, and the cost declines in wind and solar;  plus the advantages of reducing reliance on blood-thirsty petro-states have become obvious to governments.

The oil price is still trending down

The technicals point to a very clear cyclical turning point in the oil price.  The sooner we can move away from funding blood-soaked petro-state dictatorships, the better.  And as oil falls, inflation will fall too.  Of course, oil is falling because the global recession is starting to bite . . . .

Meanwhile, EV/PHEV sales globally are averaging 925K compared with 25K in H1: 2014.  For reference, total world car/light truck sales are ±70 million annually.  Have we passed peak oil?

It's all Biden's fault!

 

Global oil prices:

EU oil embargo would cause deep depression in Russia

 From Markets Insider

Germany's announcement this week that it's ready to stop buying Russian oil makes a sweeping European Union oil embargo much more likely — which would have devastating consequences for Moscow.

"Russia's economy is projected to contract by more than 10% already this year. If an EU embargo happens, it would likely send the economy spiraling into a depression," Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at markets analytics firm Kpler, told Insider. 

Without European buyers, Russia would need to find somewhere to put roughly 2.5 million barrels a day. Unless Moscow can sell that supply quickly or at least find a place to stash it, there's a strong chance Russia will have to slash its oil production dramatically due to its limited storage capacity, he said. 

Russia could use its extensive network of pipelines as storage space, but that wouldn't hold all the excess supply, Smith explained, adding that unsold crude also could be loaded onto tankers and stored offshore.

But such solutions still wouldn't address the hard-to-fill hole in Russia's economy that an EU embargo would create. Oil export revenue to Europe accounted for 11% of Russia's GDP in 2021, far more than the 2.3%-2.6% that gas exports to Europe comprised, according to the Rhodium Group. 

"A dent in export revenue will ultimately result in significant deterioration in the country's economy," Smith said. "It seems the path of least resistance for Russia will be to cut production, which doesn't come without its own consequences."

Putin can't count on China or India. India is already set to import Russian crude at a rate of 600,000 barrels per day as the lure of steep discounts outweigh international pressure to cut off business ties.

In the event of an EU embargo, those purchases could increase, and China could also help absorb some of Russia's oil. Smith estimates the two countries, which largely have avoided condemning Moscow for its war on Ukraine, could take in an additional 1 million barrels per day from Russia. 

In fact, onshore oil inventories in China are 90 million barrels below their peak from late 2020, Smith noted. If Beijing pivots away from current suppliers, it could replenish its stockpile with heavily discounted Russian oil.

But even if China and India increase Russia energy imports, it remains "highly, highly unlikely" they could absorb 100% of the stranded barrels, he added. 

"India typically imports about 4.5 million barrels per day, so it would be very difficult for them to logistically pull in a huge amount of additional crude given it likely has a significant volume of its imports under long-term contracts from the Middle East," Smith said.

He cited other logistical issues, such as getting insurance for new cargoes or finding enough available vessels to accommodate an influx of oil.

Meanwhile, China's demand for energy has dropped under Beijing's zero-Covid policies, and its own oil refineries have dialed back.

It's still possible China could buy more Russian oil and is simply waiting for an EU embargo to kick in so it can take advantage of steeper oil discounts, he said. But either way, Moscow can expect to generate less oil revenue. 

"Every single dollar a country is paying for Russian oil is funding the war [in Ukraine]. By cutting off those revenues, the goal is to ultimately cut off Russia's ability to continue this war," Smith said.

Source: How reliant is the world on Russia for oil and gas?

What do they mean by deep depression? During the 1929-1933 Great Depression, industrial production fell by 46% in the USA, 41% in Germany, and ±24% in France and the UK.  Real GDP fell ±25% in the USA, peak to trough.  In my judgement, a comparable fall in Russian GDP  from the peak before the war started seems perfectly plausible if its oil exports to the developed world are embargoed.  Russia may well introduce a ban on gas sales to Europe, in retaliation.  Europe is much more dependent on Russian gas than Russian oil, and such a ban would cause a downturn in Europe.  I've seen various estimates, ranging from a 2% fall in real GDP  to a 5% decline, if Russian gas is shut off.