Sodium batteries about to crush lithium

CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have 5 advantages over lithium-ion:

1.  Sodium-ion batteries used to have a much lower energy density than lithium-ion: 140 Watt-hours per kilogram vs lithium's +-200 Wh/kg.  CATL's new sodium-ion batteries have an energy density of 175 Wh/kg.  That's a higher energy density than BYD's lithium-ion blade battery, which has an energy density of 160 Wh/kg.  But, here's the point: sodium is about 4.5 times cheaper than lithium, even after lithium's big decline in price over the last two years.
2. Sodium-ion batteries work much better in freezing temperatures, for example, at -20 to -40 degrees C, where lithium-ion batteries lose much of their performance, and even stop working at -40 C and below.
3. They can be very rapidly charged, even at low temperatures.
4. They should last for 10,000 recharge cycles, or about 4.8 million kilometres (3 million miles), vs the very best lithium-ion batteries, with maybe 3.5 million km.
5. Safety: sodium-ion batteries are much less inflammable than lithium-ion, and don't catch alight even if sawed or drilled into.

So, sodium-ion batteries are likely to rapidly replace lithium-ion batteries, with battery costs (my estimate) at least halving, a combined effect of longer life and cheaper materials.   

This has huge implications for EV prices.  Remember, outside the USA, EVs have already reached or are close to price parity.  For example, in Australia, the cheapest BYD Dolphin has price parity with the cheapest all-petrol Toyota Corolla.  CATL's new sodium-ion battery means that EVs will now achieve price parity with even the smallest and cheapest petrol cars, and better than that with all mid-size cars.  Expect EV prices to continue to decline, even as range is increased.

It also has equally big implications for the grid.  Battery storage costs will fall so much that 8 hours of storage will be almost as cheap as 4 hours is today.  And, of course, this is not the end of the decline in battery prices.  The pace of technological and manufacturing advance is breathtaking.  This in turn means that every electricity grid within the sunbelt -- between 40 degrees N and S of the equator -- will find solar irresistibly cheap.  And even grids which are only partially within the sunbelt will be heavily dependent on solar.  Europe, for example, will combine North Sea wind with solar from Spain, Morocco, Italy and Turkey.  This is the end of coal and baseload gas.   High latitude locations will probably continue to need peaking gas, but these new super cheap batteries will outcompete gas peakers everywhere else.

The energy transition will accelerate.  EVs will reach 100% of sales everywhere (except the USA) by 2030 or before.  Oil demand will plunge. Coal power stations will stop being profitable, and will be closed.  Emissions will start to fall.  Air pollution will decline.  Blood-soaked petro-states will lose their influence.

Isn't that excellent?

From The Electric Viking