The usual rush

The usual rush of PMIs is out, as we move into September.  Most are down, again, though in some countries there has been a small uptick from lows below the 50%c recession line, i.e., they are falling more slowly.

I've picked out just two:  The UK, sliding in recession because of Brexit and the global slowdown, and Mexico in recession because of the imminent recession in its largest trading partner, the USA.

Here's what Trading Economics said about the UK PMI:

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in August 2019 from 48.0 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48.4. The latest reading pointed to the steepest month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since July 2012, as new orders fell the most in over seven years, amid ongoing global trade tensions, slower world economic growth and Brexit uncertainty. In addition, employment fell at one of the fastest rates over the past six-and-a-half years, while stocks of finished goods moved mildly higher and input inventories edged lower.  Looking ahead, business optimism slumped to its lowest level since a question tracking expectations for future output was added to the survey in July 2012.

And about Mexico's:

The IHS Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in August 2019 from 49.8 in July. The reading pointed to the steepest contraction in factory activity since series began, as new orders dropped for the third straight month and at the fastest pace on record amid lower sales, market conditions and problems in the auto sector. Also, input buying continued to decline mostly due to challenging market conditions and destocking initiatives. Additionally, employment fell mainly due to cashflow issues and the non-renewal of temporary contractors. Meanwhile, new export work rose for the first time in three months linked to higher sales to Europe, the US and Latin America. Lastly, sentiment improved as firms were hopeful of better market conditions, investment, product diversification and demand.

China's PMI ticked up a little as did Europe's, but the US's fell again, India's fell, Russia's fell, though Brazil's spiked up.  I'll do my world PMI in a couple of days, when the final US data are released.

The CRB commodity price index continues to slide; bond yields have levelled off which doesn't suggest an economic recovery, as they are extremely overbought and you'd expect a bigger correction; while global yield curves point to recession.  We're not out of the woods yet.  We can't even see the edge of the forest.