This is the sneeze

 From a Twitter thread by Michael Liebreich.  Liebreich was the founder of BNEF.

The share of BEVs plus plug-in hybrids in Germany jumped from 3.1% in 2019 to 13.6% last year. And the Tesla 3 only just made it into the top three models. 

Remember the sneeze? The first 1% takes forever; up to 5% is like waiting for a sneeze. Well, this is the sneeze:

Here is the sneeze, for those wondering what the hell I'm talking about: it's the point at which substitution curves suddenly accelerate.  Substitution curves: "The first 1% takes forever; 1% to 5% is like waiting for a sneeze – you know it’s inevitable but it takes longer than you think; then 5% to 50% happens incredibly fast. Clean energy is entering this period of rapid transformation.

In response, Wolf-Peter Schill, posted the monthly chart for 2020 which shows just how rapidly EVs and PHEVs  are penetrating the market.   As Liebreich says, 50% penetration is not far away.  2023?  And 75%?  2025?

Under a new president and administration, the USA  will accelerate the take-up of electric cars with tax credits; Europe is well on the way to 50% penetration; and China has an aggressive EV policy.  These giant markets will drive costs down the learning curve.  EVs will dominate sales by 2026 or 2027, globally.