Japan July PMI up, but still less than 50

IHS Markit's Japan manufacturing PMI rose a little in July ("flash" estimate), from 40.8 to 43.9.  Since the PMI survey asks whether sales/production/employment/new orders are up or down—a classic diffusion index—what this suggests is that for most companies these indicators are down though by less than in June.  In other words, the economy is still falling, if more slowly.  Which is interesting, because Japan's voluntary lockdown has ended, and you would have expected sales etc., to be up in July over June.  And now there is now a second wave of infections.

I reiterate: I still think the global economic recovery will be slower than many now expect.