Australia's July PMI rebounds

Commonwealth Bank's composite (services + manufacturing) PMI  rebounded sharply in July ("flash estimate")  At face value, one might believe that the economy is recovering and that the worst is over.  But it's more complicated than that.  There has been a second wave of infections in Oz, and most of the State of Victoria has gone into lockdown again.  I've included the extreme-adjusted series on the chart, which to some extent smooths out the huge month-to-month fluctuations.  Since CBA's PMI comes out early in the month, it's likely the survey is also taken early in the month, before the new lockdown.  Expect August's number to slip back, prolly below the 50% "recession line".