Tuesday, November 26, 2019

World eco decline slows, just.

The average PMI for the big 3 economies for November ("flash" estimate) suggests that economic growth, though still negative, is no longer declining.  Since the PMI surveys ask respondents whether a particular factor of their business is up or down, but not by how much, its correlation with other economic indicators like industrial production (IP) or GDP is not perfect.  Because it's an "up or down" question, a PMI below 50 means that the majority of respondents have falling sales and production.  So though the US has rebounded, the rebound elsewhere is much weaker, and on average the big 3 economies are still slowing though not as fast as they were.

Source: My calculations
I haven't had the time to update IP recently, but the decline in the PMI is likely mirrored in IP
If we make an estimate for China's PMI for November (my automated forecasting program projects a small increase, which seems likely to me), a similar picture is given. 


Source: Various, my calculations, my graphics
Again, I haven't been estimating world IP for a couple of months.


The European recovery is likely to remain weak, because short term interest rates there are zero, leaving little room for manoeuvre.   QE (quantitative easing) is surely ineffective when long-term bond yields are already below zero, which they are for most EU countries.  If the bonds bought by the ECB are paid for with "printed" money, then it will drive the Euro down, which will provide some stimulus via the foreign sector.  That will annoy Trump.  Meanwhile, an obvious avenue of stimulus, deficit spending, is closed off by big deficits in weaker economies and intransigence in Germany.  So I don't expect a strong rebound in Europe.  Similar considerations apply to Japan, which also has short-term rates at zero and negative bond yields. 

China is being adversely affected by the US/China trade war, but it at least doesn't have ideological objections to deficit spending, though it faces serious structural issues which will limit its growth rebound.

So, to sum up:

  • World growth is no longer falling
  • US recovery strongest in the majors
  • World growth in 2020 likely to be sluggish 
  • Europe weakest among big 4

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