Currently, EV/PHEVs make up more than 50% of China's car sales. Note that the growth rate has slowed (the line is rising more slowly), but it's still running at 45% YoY (lower chart). At this growth rate, the 50% market share will rise to 72% next year, and 100% the year after. It's not going to happen, I hear you cry. Well, maybe not, because as we get closer to 100%, the growth rate will inevitably slow. But I wouldn't discount it altogether. China wants to be independent of oil imports from unreliable oil producers, shipped across shipping lanes which geopolitics (Trump) could close. Remember, it will take 15 years for the whole car fleet to be electric, even when EVs hit 100% market share. And plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will also have to stop being produced and sold. Could be a couple of years more.
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