From Reuters
Clean electricity production in India has surged by 20% to new highs so far this year, giving utilities a rare chance to cut fossil fuel-fired generation and reduce reliance on energy imports for power production.
India's clean electricity sources are also on track to provide a third of its utility electricity for the first time over the next month or so, thanks to record combined output from renewables, hydro and nuclear assets, data from Ember shows.
The steep build in home-grown clean electricity comes just as India faces unprecedented scrutiny over its energy import practices, particularly its heavy reliance on sanctioned Russian oil that has triggered stiff new tariffs from the United States.
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| Solar output rising exponentially |
India also faces pressure to boost imports of U.S. LNG as a means to reduce its trade deficit with the United States, but has steadily reduced its reliance on gas for power as clean energy output has increased.
Continued growth in clean generation - alongside rising homemade production of clean energy tech such as solar panels and battery systems - may help India limit its reliance on foreign-sourced fossil fuels while continuing to expand its overall energy generation.
Over the first half of 2025, India's utilities generated a record 236 terawatt hours (TWh) of clean electricity, data from Ember shows.
That total is 20% more than during the same months in 2024, and allowed utilities to curb generation from fossil fuels by 4% from the year before to around 691 TWh.
A 29% jump in wind generation (to 47.2 TWh) and a 25% rise in solar generation (to 85 TWh) were the main drivers of the advance in clean electricity supplies.
The collective upswing in multiple clean generation sources is leading to clean power grabbing a record share of India's generation mix, which will likely exceed 30% for the months of July, August and September.
Over the first half of 2025, total clean generation from all sources was around 24% more than average generation levels from India's clean generation assets during the same months from 2022 to 2024.
If wind and hydro production rise as expected during July, August and September, total clean electricity production in India will smash previous records this year and may set the stage for even steeper cuts to fossil fuel generation going forward.
Given the fast pace of electricity demand growth in India, utilities are likely to continue adding coal-fired generation capacity to the generation system to ensure that overall electricity supplies keep up with consumption.
But with solar and wind capacity expected to continue growing at a faster pace, the share of fossil fuels within India's overall generation mix may be close to peaking, which would mark a major milestone for India's fast-growing energy system.
An established peak in the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation could then trigger a potential decline in fossil fuel imports and use, and reduce the pressure on India to succumb to international pressure on oil and gas import trends.
In this piece, Emissions have peaked, I argued that China's emissions have most probably peaked, because of the extraordinarily rapid roll-out of solar, and the S-curve rise in EVs as a percentage of total car sales.
Europe's emissions peaked in 1990. They are back at 1965 levels. The USA's emissions peaked in 2007, and its emissions have fallen to 1987 levels. The UK's emissions peaked in 1973, and are back at 1880 levels. Japan's emissions peaked in 2013.
If China's emissions have peaked, then the big remaining emitter where emissions must peak, is India. And it looks as if India's emissions might be close to peaking, too. Emissions from fossil fuel electricity generation fell 4% in the first half of this year. Yet India is booming---the average annual GDP growth rate over the last 5 years was 7%. In other words, despite high growth, the share of renewables still rose and fossil fuel emissions still fell.
Global emissions have almost certainly peaked. And this is at least in part due to the plunge in solar and battery prices, which have moved switching from fossil fuels to renewables from a luxury only rich countries could afford to a necessity where even poor countries are willing to do it. Global emissions will fall slowly at first, but the decline will accelerate as solar, battery, and EV prices continue to decline. And when emissions have fallen enough, global temperatures will stop rising.
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