Renewable electricity will be the only source resilient to the biggest global energy shock in 70 years triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA said the outbreak of Covid-19 would wipe out demand for fossil fuels by prompting a collapse in energy demand seven times greater than the slump caused by the global financial crisis. The most severe plunge in energy demand since the second world war would trigger multi-decade lows for the world’s consumption of oil, gas and coal while renewable energy continued to grow.
The steady rise of renewable energy combined with the collapse in demand for fossil fuels means clean electricity will play its largest ever role in the global energy system this year, and help erase a decade’s growth of global carbon emissions.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “The plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard of slump in electricity use.”
Renewable energy is expected to grow by 5% this year, to make up almost 30% of the world’s shrinking demand for electricity. Demand for gas is expected to fall by 5%, after a decade of uninterrupted growth. It is the steepest drop since gas became widely used as an energy source in the second half of the previous century. Coal demand is forecast to fall by 8% compared with 2019, its largest decline since the end of the second world war.
[The IEA] found that global energy demand was likely to plummet by 6% this year, the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India – the world’s third largest energy consumer – or the combined energy demand of France, Germany, Italy and the UK. The impact of the pandemic on energy use will be more keenly felt in advanced economies where demand is expected to fall by 11% across the EU and 9% across the US.
The collapse of fossil fuel demand could lead global emissions to fall by 8% compared with 2019, a drop six times larger than the record fall after the financial crisis in 2009 to lows not seen in the past decade.
[Read more here]
As usual Carbon Brief has a more detailed but also much longer piece on the subject, which you can read here. There are two charts I found interesting.
 |
| The five largest falls in annual global CO2 emissions ever recorded are shown in blue bars, in millions of tonnes of CO2. The grey bars illustrate how far emissions would fall in 2020 under a 2%, 4% or 6% reduction compared to 2019 levels. The red bars show estimated emissions impacts of the coronavirus crisis in 2020 on the global oil sector, the EU carbon market, China, the US and India, with the latter only accounting for changes in the power sector. Where possible, estimates are shown relative to pre-crisis forecasts. Geographical estimates exclude oil. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of emissions data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) and the Global Carbon Project; analysis of assessments from ICIS and the US Energy Information Administration; analysis of daily data from India’s Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO). Chart by Carbon Brief. |
 |
| Source: Philipp Litz |
Why have renewables held up while fossil fuels have plunged? Many people focus on the total cost of renewables relative to the total cost of coal. These days, of course, as I have repeatedly documented here, new-build renewables are much cheaper than new-build coal, and also the total cost of new-build renewables is now close to or below the operating cost of old coal power stations. But it is often forgotten that the marginal/operating cost of wind or solar farms is close to zero. Their "fuel" is free. And once you've built a wind or solar farm, you may as well use it to produce power if you can, because any revenue is better than none. Coal simply can't compete.
Will emissions jump in 2021? Two factors will mitigate against this. First, in my judgement, the global recovery will be sluggish, especially if governments try to reduce budget deficits and outstanding debt piles by austerity. Second, the penetration of renewables into electricity generation and EVs into transport mean that more of any rebound in energy demand will be supplied by carbon-free energy. For example, let's suppose electricity demand completely rebounds in 2021, by the 3% it will fall in 2020. With renewables now making up 30% of global electricity supply, a 10% rise in renewables output will completely account for the rise in electricity demand. So I suspect that, overall, the rebound in emissions in 2021 will not compensate for the fall in 2020.
[Update, May 2021; So far what was prognosticated here has proved broadly correct. However, my guess that the recovery would be sluggish because governments would tighten policy too quickly has proved incorrect, partly because of the election of the Biden administration]
No comments:
Post a Comment