Friday, December 31, 2021

China: 50% renewables by 2025

China is frequently used as an excuse for climate inaction by the denialists/delayists.  "Why should we cut fossil fuels when China is still building new coal power stations?" they ask.  The problem is that the country is still growing fast.  When electricity demand is flat, like it is in most developed countries, you only have to replace existing capacity, whereas in China and India, demand is still growing by 3-5% p.a.,  so they need to also invest in new capacity.  So China continues to build out new coal power stations even as the share of renewables is in fact rising.  But this announcement suggests that tht situation is ending, and that China means business about climate change. 

From Yan Qin

China central State-owned enterprises (SOEs) need to achieve 50% renewables share of installed power capacity by 2025 stated the SASAC in a new guidance on high quality growth of central SOE and carbon peak and neutrality work. In summary, this means hundreds GW of solar and wind buildout in next 4 years ...  and quite some gap for CHN Energy, for example



Here is the total installed capacity of China's Big 5 Utility: They have already pledged a total of ~350 GW wind and solar buildout by 2025.





Background: State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) oversees 96 central SOEs.  Central SOE responsible for 90% of national oil and gas supply, 60% of Power supply, 25% of coal supply

Note that this is capacity, not output.  Assuming an average capacity factor of  30% in renewables, and an average capacity factor in coal of 60%, this would mean that 1/3rd of electricity would come from  renewables in 2025.  This percentage is more than the likely growth in total electricity demand between now and 2025.  Which implies that emissions from electricity generation have prolly peaked, despite China's high growth.  This is very good news for the climate.

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