The US whole-economy PMI fell in February (provisional data). The fall was confined to services; the manufacturing PMI actually rose. Unlike manufactures, services don't have long order books, which take time to adjust. If people start to be concerned about the economy, they can immediately cut spending. Manufacturing takes longer to come to a grinding halt. So the fall in services (to below 50%!) is very significant. It suggests that the public sees Trump policies as bad for their financial prospects, which is borne out by the plunge in his ratings on the economy. Of course, just as spending can decline, so it can rise. A reversal of trade wars, and an ending to DOGE could see a rebound. But the longer uncertainty continues, the deeper the downturn, and the slower the reversal.
I personally don't see Trump changing direction, which means inflation and unemployment will rise from here.
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