China's emissions set for structural decline

From The Guardian

China’s carbon emissions could peak this year before falling into a structural decline for the first time from next year after a record surge in clean energy investments, according to research.

Emissions from the world’s most polluting country have rebounded this year after the Chinese government dropped its Covid restrictions in January, according to analysis undertaken for Carbon Brief.

However, this rebound in fossil fuel demand emerged alongside a historic expansion of the country’s low-carbon energy sources, which was far in excess of policymakers’ targets and expectations.

Beijing’s solar and wind installation targets for the year were met by September, according to the report, and the market share of electric vehicles is already well ahead of the government’s 20% target for 2025.

“These record additions are all but guaranteed to push fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024,” Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the author of the report.

The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020.

The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report.

Myllyvirta said the boom in clean energy generation could trigger a decline in China’s emissions from next year despite a wave of new coal plants across the country.

“This is because – for the first time – the rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet, but exceed the average annual increase in China’s demand for electricity overall,” he said.

“If this pace is maintained, or accelerated, it would mean that China’s electricity generation from fossil fuels would enter a period of structural decline – which would also be a first. Moreover, this structural decline could come about despite the new wave of coal plant permitting and construction in the country,” Myllyvirta added.

China had 136GW of coal power capacity already under construction at the end of June, with a further 99GW with planning permits. Another 25GW has been permitted since then, according to the research, which would breach a policy pledge made by the country’s president, Xi Jinping, to “strictly control new coal-fired power generation projects”.

China has forecast that its coal power capacity will peak at 1,370GW in 2030, which would require either an immediate end to new coal power permits, or an accelerated shutdown of existing and planned coal plants, said Myllyvirta.

So, first off, how can Carbon Brief be so confident, given the surge in new coal power stations?  

During the 2022 extreme drought in China (ironically worsened by climate change) there were power shortages as hydro generation collapsed and demand for air-conditioning zoomed.  The Chinese authorities responded by unfreezing coal power station planning requests.  But these new coal power stations were to be back-ups for nuclear, hydro, wind and solar.  Capacity utilisation in coal generation in China is already below 50% (the norm is 70-90%) and the majority of coal power stations are loss-making.  But that doesn't matter in China's system.  Unlike power stations and the grid in other countries, China's power stations don't have to make a profit.  They're seen as a public service.  And widespread, lasting power failures are seen as unacceptable, more unacceptable than loss-making power stations.   For example, you could run the grid using solar during the day and coal at night (which, if you think about it, would halve emissions).  Of course, this makes coal power even more expensive, because the plants are only being used for half the day.  In Australia, that dynamic is pushing coal power stations towards bankruptcy; in China, it doesn't really matter.

Second, if China's emissions have peaked, that would mean that global emissions have peaked too.

Look at the chart below.   This includes all emissions except land use change (i.e., clearing forests for food.)  Europe's emissions peaked in 1990 and are back where they were in 1965.  US emissions peaked in 2006, and are back where they were in 1988.  But China's and India's emissions, by contrast, have exploded.  This is because they are rapidly growing economies, and until recently coal was the cheapest source of electricity.  Most of the rise in emissions over the last few decades has been because of China.  So, even if China's emissions only fall slowly, global emissions will have peaked.  (It would help if India's emissions also peaked, but that seems unlikely just yet.)  And if China's emissions start to fall, the excuse offered up by denialists that 'why should we do anything when China isn't?' will be invalidated.

This isn't unmitigated good news.  The rise in global temperatures is proportional to the level of global emissions.  To halve the decadal rise in emissions (currently 0.2 degrees, but showing ominous signs of having increased to 0.28 degrees) we need to halve emissions.  

Let's say global emissions fall by 3% a year.  This will reduce emissions by just 25% over the next 10 years, 45% over 20 years.  Not enough to prevent 2 degrees of warming.  5% a year would reduce emissions by 40% over 10 years, and 80% over 30 years.  That's a lot better, but still far from ideal.  The prospective decline in emissions, though very welcome, just isn't fast enough.  Yet. (To reduce emissions by 90% by 2050, they would have to fall by ~8% per annum.)

Source:  Our World in Data