Wind and solar reach 10.5% of global generation

From BNEF

The world’s wind and solar projects combined to meet more than a tenth of global electricity demand for the first time in 2021, according to research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). At the same time overall electricity demand, production from coal-fired power plants, and emissions all surged in 2021 as the global economy regained its footing following the Covid-19 pandemic.

With nearly 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity produced, wind and solar accounted for a combined 10.5% of global 2021 generation, BNEF found in its annual Power Transition Trends report. Wind’s contribution to the global total rose to 6.8% while solar climbed to 3.7%. A decade ago, these two technologies combined accounted for well under 1% of total electricity production. In all, 39% of all power produced globally in 2021 was carbon free. Hydro and nuclear projects met just over one quarter of the world’s electricity needs.

Every year since 2017, wind and solar have accounted for the majority of new power-generating capacity added to global grids. In 2021, they hit a record three-quarters of the 364 gigawatts of new capacity built. Including hydro, nuclear and others, zero-carbon power accounted for 85% of all new capacity added.

“Renewables are now the default choice for most countries looking to add or even replace power-generating capacity,” said Luiza Demôro, head of energy transitions at BloombergNEF. “This is no longer due to mandates or subsidies, but simply because these technologies are more often the most cost-competitive.”

Solar continued to expand at a particularly fierce pace in 2021, both in terms of new capacity additions and new markets. Solar was half of all global capacity added, at 182 gigawatts. Its contribution to global grids topped 1,000 terawatt-hours for the first time. Solar has also become essentially ubiquitous. In nearly half of all countries tracked by BNEF where some capacity was added, solar was the top choice in terms of volume. At least 112 countries now have at least one megawatt of solar capacity installed.

If you extend the trend linearly, from 1% 10 years ago to 10.5% in 2021, then it will take 90 years for wind and solar to reach 100% of electricity output.  If, on the other hand, growth is exponential (it is―it's a classic S-curve) then it is possible that the 10-fold increase over the last decade could be repeated over the next.  Which would take wind and solar to 100% of electricity generation.  What actually happens will lie somewhere between the two extremes.  But think about it.  The percentage of total electricity output from wind and solar has been growing by 25% compound per annum.  Let's say this growth rate falls to 15% per annum.  Then 40% of total output will come from wind and solar by 2031.   Another 30% of power comes from other carbon-free sources (nuclear and hydro, mainly).  So by 2031 only 30% of electricity generation will come from fossil fuels.  And at that same growth rate, by 2035, 100% will be carbon-free.

There's still hope.  We may yet slow climate change.