S&P Global's "flash" (=preliminary) PMI for Australia fell in October. All perfectly consistent with an economic slowdown. The chart shows both the "original" (in fact, seasonally adjusted) and the extreme-adjusted time series. As you can see (just a reminder!) the extreme-adjusted series reduces extremes, in particular, those caused by Covid slumps and recoveries over the last couple of years.
The ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) will be producing a monthly CPI from 26th November, which will allow me to create an Ozzie QCI ( monthly GDP proxy), which I will compare with the composite PMI when I have the data. We have monthly retail sales in Oz, but not, hitherto, a monthly CPI with which to deflate them. Industrial production is quarterly, but I'm sure I can estimate the latest months using another series. I'll keep you posted.
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