After a steady decline since the middle of 2021, the ISM/PMI manufacturing indices had a mini rebound since the beginning of this year. This rebound appears to be faltering. The services PMI and ISM indices, on the other hand, continue to rise. I attempt to explain this disparity here.
As usual, the line to watch is the thick green one. This is the average of the extreme-adjusted PMI and ISM indices, and both processes (extreme adjustment and averaging) reduce random fluctuations (the statistical error term).
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