COP31: another pointless climate gabfest

COP31 has just started in Türkiye.  

 From Just Have a Think

   

A gloomy and depressing summary of the environmental and ecological disasters mankind refuses to sort out.

But there was one less gloomy section, starting at 9:30 minutes into the video.

"To have any chance of staying below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, emissions would need to immediately top out and then fall by 11% by 2030, 24% by 2035, and 37% by 2040".

If we convert that to compound rates of decline, 11% by 2030 equals ~2.9% p.a., 24% by 2035 equals ~3% p.a., and 37% by 2040 equals 3.2% per annum.  In Net-zero or real-zero, I argue that to avoid a rise of 2 degrees, we would need to cut global emissions by a compound 5% p.a., but the UN analysis suggests that 3% per annum would be enough.  And a 3% p.a. fall is easily doable, because of the plunge in the costs of solar, batteries and EVs and the consequent S-curve expansion in battery-solar electricity and EVs.  China is showing us how to de-carbonise, right now. 

We will almost certainly cut our emissions by 24% by 2035, not because politicians or CEOs actually care, but because the economics of renewables have shifted.  That doesn't mean that we should give up climate activism (or indeed environmental activism) since we need to do better than 3%, but we should set the 3% annual decline as the bare minimum all countries should aim to achieve. 

The COP process is not going to do that.  Frustration at last year's feeble COP outcomes led to frustrated participants setting up a climate "coalition of the willing" to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, which held its first meeting in Colombia in April 2026. 54 countries sent delegates, but the US, China, India and the Gulf petro states didn't attend, while many of the world's major oil producers (Australia, Nigeria, Angola, Mexico and Brazil) did attend.  How committed are they to cutting fossil fuel production?  How committed is Australia, long on talk, but still authorising new and expanded coal mines and gas fields? 

I don't see how a conference designed to phase out fossil fuels will ever succeed while major fossil fuel producers are part of the process.  It was this which stymied the COP process; the new Climate Coalition will likely be no more successful.  And China should surely be a crucial part of the climate coalition of the willing: it's the biggest emitter, the largest installer of renewables and batteries, and the biggest buyer, producer and exporter of EVs in the world.  And it is cheap Chinese solar panels, batteries and EVs, which are enabling the rest of the world to de-carbonise.

We need a "3% club".  All members would commit to cutting emissions by 3% a year and to introducing a price on carbon, whether via a cap-and-trade mechanism or a carbon tax.  Are the Climate Coalition members willing to do this?  Even though it should be relatively easy?

Meanwhile, the COP31 gabfest in Türkiye will achieve bugger all.   It's scarcely worth paying any attention to.