China moves towards emissions tipping point

From Bloomberg

Welcome to Energy Daily, our guide to the energy and commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, Energy Reporter Dan Murtaugh reflects on China’s solar power and EV booms, and suggests the country is reaching a tipping point in its energy transition. To get this newsletter sent straight to your inbox, you can sign up here.

A singer wailed while a guitarist ripped off a solo in front of a crowd so packed it was impossible to walk through. But this wasn’t a rock concert. It was the scene around automaker BYD Co.’s booth at a Chinese solar power conference.

The SNEC PV Power Expo drew around half a million people to the Shanghai New International Expo Center last week: everyone from European utility executives looking for deals on panels to curious tourists hoping to grab some free merchandise.

As well as BYD, China’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. was there, along with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., the world’s biggest electric vehicle battery manufacturer. They joined thousands of domestic solar companies. The buzz was reminiscent of the auto show in Shanghai a month earlier, when onlookers thronged around the latest EV models.

The excitement around solar and EVs suggests China is nearing an inflection point in its energy transition more than a half-decade before a 2030 target to peak emissions. It no longer requires heavy government subsidies to push people away from fossil fuels. Cheap solar panels are a better way to make money than burning expensive coal, while EVs are cheaper to operate — and increasingly more fun to drive — than gasoline-powered vehicles.

BloombergNEF lifted its forecast for China’s 2023 solar installations last week. It now expects the country to add nearly three times the capacity it did just two years ago, or more than the entire total in the US. EVs, meanwhile, made up more than a third of all vehicle sales in China last month.

That’s bringing China closer to the tipping point where fossil fuel use falls into long-term decline, a milestone that could be reached as soon as next year, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

The road ahead won’t be easy — grid improvements will be needed to keep solar going at its current pace, panel manufacturers face shrinking margins on robust competition, and battery makers will need to avoid supply chain bottlenecks.

The planet’s largest polluter still burns a lot of coal. But the progress on solar power and EVs show it’s well on its way to a less carbon-intensive future.

Source: Reuters

I've hoped for this before, but have been disappointed.   Yet the growth of solar and EVs in China is so extraordinary that this time it may be true.  Chin is responsible for 25% of global emissions.  If her emissions are close to peaking, that is extremely good news.