From Berkeley Earth.
This chart shows the temperature anomaly relative to the 1850 -1900 September average temperature, for each September since 1850. You can see how temperatures spiked during El Niño, and have since been falling as El Niño was replaced by La Niña. The red line shows the trend, which you can see is accelerating. This is the third-warmest September on record.
September 2025 was the third warmest September on record behind 2023 and 2024, with a global average of 1.48 ± 0.15 °C (2.67 ± 0.26 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.
This chart shows the 12-month moving average of the temperature anomalies up to September 2025. The 12-month moving average has rolled over after the end of El Niño, but don't mistake this for a change in the longer-term trend, shown by the red LOESS smoothed line.
With the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21), 10 years ago, the world agreed to aim for a maximum increase in temperatures over the 1850-1900 average of 1.5 degrees C. We're there already, and even though temperatures have fallen marginally from the El Niño high 3 years ago, the trend is inexorably upwards. We have failed. COP conferences have turned into pointless gabfests, where lobbyists from fossil fuel industries outnumber government delegates.
Only the continued decline in solar panel, battery and EV costs gives me any hope that mankind will act quickly enough to cut emissions and prevent a climate catastrophe.


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