The index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan has fallen to an almost 70-year record low. Note that it has led every recession over the last 70 years, but it has given a couple of false signals. Perhaps this is one of those occasions. As an aside, the weakness in consumer sentiment in 2021/22/23 offers itself as a potential cause of the Democrat's election loss. If so, that applies also to the Republican Party's electoral chances over the next couple of years.
It had been turning up from the lows caused by the rise in the Fed Funds rate and the surge in inflation, but it turned sharply down with Trump's tariff shambles.
The data are monthly from January 1978, and quarterly before then. The smoothing is a 3x15 centred moving average. Shading shows US recessions.
I remain convinced that the US will soon enter a recession.
No comments:
Post a Comment